Derivatív pénzügyi termékek árdinamikája és az új típusú kamatlábmodellek (Interest rate models and the price processes of financial derivatives)

Ennek a cikknek az a célja, hogy áttekintést adjon annak a folyamatnak néhány főbb állomásáról, amit Black, Scholes és Merton opcióárazásról írt cikkei indítottak el a 70-es évek elején, és ami egyszerre forradalmasította a fejlett nyugati pénzügyi piacokat és a pénzügyi elméletet. / === / This review article compares the development of financial theory within and outside Hungary in the last three decades starting with the Black-Scholes revolution. Problems like the term structure of interest rate volatilities which is in the focus of many research internationally has not received the proper attention among the Hungarian economists. The article gives an overview of no-arbitrage pricing, the partial differential equation approach and the related numerical techniques, like the lattice methods in pricing financial derivatives. The relevant concepts of the martingal approach are overviewed. There is a special focus on the HJM framework of the interest rate development. The idea that the volatility and the correlation can be traded is a new horizon to the Hungarian capital market.

Magyarország hét régiójának új gazdaságföldrajzi modellje – paraméterbecslés (The new economic-geography model of Hungary's seven regions - a parameter estimate)

Az új gazdaságföldrajz – amely napjaink egy igen népszerű közgazdaságtani tudományága – modelljének majdnem minden paramétere előállítható közvetlenül külső adatok segítségével. A helyettesítési rugalmassághoz azonban más módszerre van szükség. Puga [1999] által felvázolt új gazdaságföldrajzi modellt követve, egy regressziós egyenlettel megbecsülhetővé válik a kívánt paraméter, amit Magyarország hét régiójára vonatkozó béregyenlet becsléséből nyertünk. A helyettesítési rugalmasság értéke eltér a szakirodalomhoz képest, aminek magyarázata Magyarország fejlettségi szintjével állhat összefüggésben. ____ The model of the new economic geography - very popular material for economic study these days - allows almost every parameter to be presented directly with the aid of outside data. However, another method is required for substitution flexibility. With the new economic-geography model devised by Puga [1999], a regression equation allows an estimate to be made for the desired parameter, which yielded the wage equation for the six regions of Hungary. The value for substitution flexibility differs from that of the literature, the explanation for which may lie in Hungary's level of development.

Combination of 16S rRNA variable regions provides a detailed analysis of bacterial community dynamics in the lungs of cystic fibrosis patients

Chronic bronchopulmonary bacterial infections remain the most common cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). Recent community sequencing work has now shown that the bacterial community in the CF lung is polymicrobial. Identifying bacteria in the CF lung through sequencing can be costly and is not practical for many laboratories. Molecular techniques such as terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism or amplicon length heterogeneity-polymerase chain reaction (LH-PCR) can provide many laboratories with the ability to study CF bacterial communities without costly sequencing. The aim of this study was to determine if the use of LH-PCR with multiple hypervariable regions of the 16S rRNA gene could be used to identify organisms found in sputum DNA. This work also determined if LH-PCR could be used to observe the dynamics of lung infections over a period of time. Nineteen samples were analysed with the V1 and the V1_V2 region of the 16S rRNA gene. Based on the amplicon size present in the V1_V2 region, Pseudomonas aeruginosa was confirmed to be in all 19 samples obtained from the patients. The V1 region provided a higher power of discrimination between bacterial profiles of patients. Both regions were able to identify trends in the bacterial population over a period of time. LH profiles showed that the CF lung community is dynamic and that changes in the community may in part be driven by the patient's antibiotic treatment. LH-PCR is a tool that is well suited for studying bacterial communities and their dynamics.

The World Heritage vs. Local Comnuty : identifying the sources of conflicts

The presented work is an essay rather than a scientific dissertation. The author wants to put an impact on the source of conflicts regarding the complex subject of heritage management and conservation in comparison with the local needs and the given context. The paper attempts to show the role of local communities and their cooperation with authorities as well as the effects of such cooperation. The area of research comprises the problems arising in the field of implementing external rules on the local field, challenges appearing regarding the needs of local communities and the efforts of official authorities trying to implement the principles of the conventions. The problems arise when local communities display the lack of understanding and do not share the common idea of heritage conservation. This is caused mainly by the decreasing possibilities of comfortable life. The author tries to identify the main and wrongful approaches as ‘Gone with the Wind’, ‘The Prince and The Pauper’, ‘Heart of Darkness’ or ‘Scarlet letter’. The focus will be put to explain what the areas are where a mutual misunderstanding arise and why all parts to the problem present different points of view. What creates a value? Is it a heritage object or maybe the other values need a stronger protection? When the general duty and the need to protect the heritage is regarded as a controversy and when it is considered as a value within a given community? The international public interest in heritage protection is often regarded as an attempt to diminish the sovereign power of the community and provokes severe controversies and tensions. The major problem envisaged today seems to be the massive and increasing urbanisation and the destruction of the vestiges still existing of traditional cultures, when we consider century urban post-industrial districts of Upper Silesia in Poland, the medieval cities in Western Europe, the traditional nomad Masaya villages in Kenya or the remains of vanished cultures in various regions of Asia. The preferred platform of cooperation between the parts of the conflict includes divergent needs, beliefs and practices of communities and the possible fields of reconciling the abovementioned. Chosen examples of the best practices considering mutual cooperation will be underlined.

Estimate of the (R)USLE rainfall erosivity factor from monthly precipitation data in mainland Spain

The need for continuous recording rain gauges makes it difficult to determine the rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) of the (R)USLE model in areas without good temporal data coverage. In mainland Spain, the Nature Conservation Institute (ICONA) determined the R-factor at few selected pluviographs, so simple estimates of the R-factor are definitely of great interest. The objectives of this study were: (1) to identify a readily available estimate of the R-factor for mainland Spain; (2) to discuss the applicability of a single (global) estimate based on analysis of regional results; (3) to evaluate the effect of record length on estimate precision and accuracy; and (4) to validate an available regression model developed by ICONA. Four estimators based on monthly precipitation were computed at 74 rainfall stations throughout mainland Spain. The regression analysis conducted at a global level clearly showed that modified Fournier index (MFI) ranked first among all assessed indexes. Applicability of this preliminary global model across mainland Spain was evaluated by analyzing regression results obtained at a regional level. It was found that three contiguous regions of eastern Spain (Catalonia, Valencian Community and Murcia) could have a different rainfall erosivity pattern, so a new regression analysis was conducted by dividing mainland Spain into two areas: Eastern Spain and plateau-lowland area. A comparative analysis concluded that the bi-areal regression model based on MFI for a 10-year record length provided a simple, precise and accurate estimate of the R-factor in mainland Spain. Finally, validation of the regression model proposed by ICONA showed that R-ICONA index overpredicted the R-factor by approximately 19%.

A compendium of myeloma-associated chromosomal copy number abnormalities and their prognostic value.

To obtain a comprehensive genomic profile of presenting multiple myeloma cases we performed high-resolution single nucleotide polymorphism mapping array analysis in 114 samples alongside 258 samples analyzed by U133 Plus 2.0 expression array (Affymetrix). We examined DNA copy number alterations and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) to define the spectrum of minimally deleted regions in which relevant genes of interest can be found. The most frequent deletions are located at 1p (30%), 6q (33%), 8p (25%), 12p (15%), 13q (59%), 14q (39%), 16q (35%), 17p (7%), 20 (12%), and 22 (18%). In addition, copy number-neutral LOH, or uniparental disomy, was also prevalent on 1q (8%), 16q (9%), and X (20%), and was associated with regions of gain and loss. Based on fluorescence in situ hybridization and expression quartile analysis, genes of prognostic importance were found to be located at 1p (FAF1, CDKN2C), 1q (ANP32E), and 17p (TP53). In addition, we identified common homozygously deleted genes that have functions relevant to myeloma biology. Taken together, these analyses indicate that the crucial pathways in myeloma pathogenesis include the nuclear factor-κB pathway, apoptosis, cell-cycle regulation, Wnt signaling, and histone modifications. This study was registered at http://isrctn.org as ISRCTN68454111.

Insight into the mechanism of galactokinase: role of a critical glutamate residue and helix/coil transitions

Galactokinase, the enzyme which catalyses the first committed step in the Leloir pathway, has attracted interest due to its potential as a biocatalyst and as a possible drug target in the treatment of type I galactosemia. The mechanism of the enzyme is not fully elucidated. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of galactokinase with the active site residues Arg-37 and Asp-186 altered predicted that two regions (residues 174-179 and 231-240) had different dynamics as a consequence. Interestingly, the same two regions were also affected by alterations in Arg-105, Glu-174 and Arg- 228. These three residues were identified as important in catalysis in previous computational studies on human galactokinase. Alteration of Arg-105 to methionine resulted in a modest reduction in activity with little change in stability. When Arg-228 was changed to methionine, the enzyme’s interaction with both ATP and galactose was affected. This variant was significantly less stable than the wild-type protein. Changing Glu-174 to glutamine (but not to aspartate) resulted in no detectable activity and a less stable enzyme. Overall, these combined in silico and in vitro studies demonstrate the importance of a negative charge at position 174 and highlight the critical role of the dynamics in to key regions of the protein. We postulate that these regions may be critical for mediating the enzyme’s structure and function. 

In Search of Social Justice: Current Developments in Higher Education and the Labour Market in Bulgaria

The discussions about social justice date from ancient times, but despite the enduring interest in the topic and the progress made, we are still witnessing injustices throughout the world. Thus, the search for social justice, under some form, is an inseparable part of our lives. In general, social justice may be considered as a critical idea that challenges us to reform our institutions and practices in the name of greater fairness (Miller 1999, p. x). In political and policy debates, social justice is often related to fair access (Brown, 2013) but at the same time its meanings seem to vary when we consider different definitions, perspectives and social theories (Zajda, Majhanovich, & Rust, 2006). When seen in the context of higher education, social justice appears in relevant literature as a buzzword (Patton, Shahjahan, Riyad, & Osei-Kofi, 2010). Within the recent studies of higher education and public debates related to the development of higher education, more emphasis is placed on the link between higher education and the economic growth and how higher education could be more responsive to the labour market demands, and little emphasis has been put on social justice. Given this, the present study attempts to at least partially fill the gap with regard to this apparently very topical issue, especially in the context of the unprecedented worldwide expansion of higher education in the last century (Schofer & Meyer, 2005), an expansion that is expected to continue in the next decades. More specifically, the expansion of higher education intensified in the second part of the 20th century, especially after World War II. It was seen as a result of the intertwined dynamics related to demographic, economic and political pressures (Goastellec, 2008a). This trend undoubtedly contributed to the increase of the size of the student body. To illustrate this trend, we may point out that in the period between 2000 and 2007, the number of tertiary students in the world increased from 98,303,539 to 150,656,459 (UNESCO, 2009, p. 205). This growth occurred in all regions of the world, including Central and Eastern Europe, North America and Western Europe, and contributed to raising the number of tertiary graduates. Thus, in the period between 2000 and 2008, the total number of tertiary graduates in the European Union (EU) 27 increased by a total of 35 percent (or 4.5 percent per year). However, this growth was very uneven, ranging from 21.1 percent in Romania to 0.7 percent in Hungary (European Commission working staff document, 2011). The increase of the number of students and graduates was seen as enhancing the social justice in higher education, since it is assumed that expansion “extends a valued good to a broader spectrum of the population” (Arum, Gamoran, & Shavit, 2007, p. 29). However, concerns for a deep contradiction for 21st-century higher education also emerged with regard to its expansion.

New Jersey Coastal Heritage Trail, Absecon & Cape May regions /

Shows points of interest along southern part of the N.J. Heritage Trail.

An evaluation of the transmission of the policy interest rate to the financial system’s interest rates in Colombia

This paper studies monetary policy transmission using several statistical tools -- We find that the relationships between the policy interest rate and the financial system’s interest rates are positive and statistically significant, and transmission is complete eight months after policy shocks occur -- The speed of transmission varies according to the type of interest rates -- Transmission is faster for interest rates on loans provided to households, and is particularly rapid and complete for rates on preferential commercial loans -- Transmission is slower for credit card and mortgage rates, due to regulatory issues (interest rate ceilings)

Biochemical studies of postsynaptic density signaling proteins with a focus on synaptic GTPase activating protein and PDZ domains

Memory storage in the brain involves adjustment of the strength of existing synapses and formation of new neural networks. A key process underlying memory formation is synaptic plasticity, the ability of excitatory synapses to strengthen or weaken their connections in response to patterns of activity between their connected neurons. Synaptic plasticity is governed by the precise pattern of Ca²⁺ influx through postsynaptic N-methyl-D-aspartate-type glutamate receptors (NMDARs), which can lead to the activation of the small GTPases Ras and Rap. Differential activation of Ras and Rap acts to modulate synaptic strength by promoting the insertion or removal of 2-amino-3-(3-hydroxy-5-methyl-isoxazol-4-yl)propanoic acid receptors (AMPARs) from the synapse. Synaptic GTPase activating protein (synGAP) regulates AMPAR levels by catalyzing the inactivation of GTP-bound (active) Ras or Rap. synGAP is positioned in close proximity to the cytoplasmic tail regions of the NMDAR through its association with the PDZ domains of PSD-95. SynGAP’s activity is regulated by the prominent postsynaptic protein kinase, Ca²⁺/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) and cyclin-dependent kinase 5 (CDK5), a known binding partner of CaMKII. Modulation of synGAP’s activity by phosphorylation may alter the ratio of active Ras to Rap in spines, thus pushing the spine towards the insertion or removal of AMPARs, subsequently strengthening or weakening the synapse. To date, all biochemical studies of the regulation of synGAP activity by protein kinases have utilized impure preparations of membrane bound synGAP. Here we have clarified the effects of phosphorylation of synGAP on its Ras and Rap GAP activities by preparing and utilizing purified, soluble recombinant synGAP, Ras, Rap, CaMKII, CDK5, PLK2, and CaM. Using mass spectrometry, we have confirmed the presence of previously identified CaMKII and CDK5 sites in synGAP, and have identified novel sites of phosphorylation by CaMKII, CDK5, and PLK2. We have shown that the net effect of phosphorylation of synGAP by CaMKII, CDK5, and PLK2 is an increase in its GAP activity toward HRas and Rap1. In contrast, there is no effect on its GAP activity toward Rap2. Additionally, by assaying the GAP activity of phosphomimetic synGAP mutants, we have been able to hypothesize the effects of CDK5 phosphorylation at specific sites in synGAP. In the course of this work, we also found, unexpectedly, that synGAP is itself a Ca²⁺/CaM binding protein. While Ca²⁺/CaM binding does not directly affect synGAP activity, it causes a conformational change in synGAP that increases the rate of its phosphorylation and exposes additional phosphorylation sites that are inaccessible in the absence of Ca²⁺/CaM.

The postsynaptic density (PSD) is an electron-dense region in excitatory postsynaptic neurons that contains a high concentration of glutamate receptors, cytoskeletal proteins, and associated signaling enzymes. Within the PSD, three major classes of scaffolding molecules function to organize signaling enzymes and glutamate receptors. PDZ domains present in the Shank and PSD-95 scaffolds families serve to physically link AMPARs and NMDARs to signaling molecules in the PSD. Because of the specificity and high affinity of PDZ domains for their ligands, I reasoned that these interacting pairs could provide the core components of an affinity chromatography system, including affinity resins, affinity tags, and elution agents. I show that affinity columns containing the PDZ domains of PSD-95 can be used to purify active PDZ domain-binding proteins to very high purity in a single step. Five heterologously expressed neuronal proteins containing endogenous PDZ domain ligands (NMDAR GluN2B subunit Tail, synGAP, neuronal nitric oxide synthase PDZ domain, cysteine rich interactor of PDZ three and cypin) were purified using PDZ domain resin, with synthetic peptides having the sequences of cognate PDZ domain ligands used as elution agents. I also show that conjugation of PDZ domain-related affinity tags to Proteins Of Interest (POIs) that do not contain endogenous PDZ domains or ligands does not alter protein activity and enables purification of the POIs on PDZ domain-related affinity resins.

Behavioral traits predicting cocaine-conditioned place reference in mice: role of anxiety adn the basolateral amygdala

Aims. The individual susceptibility to cocaine addiction, a factor of interest in the understanding and prevention of this disorder, may be predicted by certain behavioral traits. However, these are not usually taken into account in research, making it difficult to identify whether they are a cause or a consequence of drug use. Methods. Male C57BL/6J mice underwent a battery of behavioral tests (elevated plus maze, hole-board, novelty preference in the Y maze, episodic-like object recognition memory and forced swimming test), followed by a cocaine-conditioned place preference (CPP) training to assess the reinforcing effect of the drug. In a second study, we aimed to determine the existence of neurobiological differences between the mice expressing high or low CPP by studying the number of neurons in certain addiction-related structures: the medial prefrontal cortex, the basolateral amygdala and the ventral tegmental area. Results. Anxiety-like behaviors in the elevated plus maze successfully predicted the cocaine-CPP behavior, so that the most anxious mice were also more likely to search for cocaine in a CPP paradigm. In addition, these mice exhibited an increased number of neurons in the basolateral amygdala, a key structure in emotional response including anxiety expression, without differences in the others regions analyzed. Conclusions. Our results suggest a relevant role of anxiety as a psychological risk factor for cocaine vulnerability, with the basolateral amygdala as potential common neural center for both anxiety and addiction.

Interest rate (in)sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt : economic analysis based on 2002-2015 empirical evidence

Interest rate sensitivity assessment framework based on fixed income yield indexes is developed and applied to two types of emerging market corporate debt: investment grade and high yield exposures. Our research advances beyond the correlation analyses focused on co- movements in yields and/or spreads of risky and risk-free assets. We show that correlation- based analyses of interest rate sensitivity could appear rather inconclusive and, hence, we investigate the bottom line profit and loss of a hypothetical model portfolio of corporates. We consider historical data covering the period 2002 – 2015, which enable us to assess interest rate sensitivity of assets during the development, the apogee, and the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Based on empirical evidence, both for investment and speculative grades securities, we find that the emerging market corporates exhibit two different regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a positive sensitivity under the normal market conditions to a negative one during distressed phases of business cycles. This research sheds light on how financial institutions may approach interest rate risk management, evidencing that even plain vanilla portfolios of emerging market corporates, which on average could appear rather insensitive to the interest rate risk in fact present a binary behavior of their interest rate sensitivities. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Governed by the cycle : direct and inverted interest-rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt

An innovative approach to quantify interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporates is proposed. Our focus is centered at price sensitivity of modeled investment grade and high yield portfolios to changes in the present value of modeled portfolios composed of safe-haven assets, which define risk-free interest rates. Our methodology is based on blended yield indexes. Modeled investment horizons are always kept above one year thus allowing to derive empirical implications for practical strategies of interest rate risk management in the banking book. As our study spans over the period 2002 – 2015, it covers interest rate sensitivity of assets under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases of the economic cycles. We demonstrate that the emerging market corporate bonds both, investment grade and high yield types, depending on the phase of a business cycle exhibit diverse regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a direct positive sensitivity under the normal pre-crisis market conditions to an inverted negative sensitivity during distressed turmoil of the recent financial crisis, and than back to direct positive but weaker sensitivity under new normal post-crisis conjuncture. Our unusual blended yield-based approach allows us to present theoretical explanations of such phenomena from economics point of view and helps us to solve an old controversy regarding positive or negative responses of credit spreads to interest rates. We present numerical quantification of sensitivities, which corroborate with our conclusion that hedging of interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process linked to the phases of business cycles as we evidence a binary-like behavior of interest rate sensitivities along the economic time. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for approaching downside risk management and optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Contrasting patterns of population connectivity between regions in a commercially important mollusc Haliotis rubra: integrating population genetics, genomics and marine LiDAR data

Estimating contemporary genetic structure and population connectivity in marine species is challenging, often compromised by genetic markers that lack adequate sensitivity, and unstructured sampling regimes. We show how these limitations can be overcome via the integration of modern genotyping methods and sampling designs guided by LIDAR and SONAR datasets. Here we explore patterns of gene flow and local genetic structure in a commercially harvested abalone species (Haliotis rubra) from South Eastern Australia, where the viability of fishing stocks is believed to be dictated by recruitment from local sources. Using a panel of microsatellite and genome-wide SNP markers we compare allele frequencies across a replicated hierarchical sampling area guided by bathymetric LIDAR imagery. Results indicate high levels of gene flow and no significant genetic structure within or between benthic reef habitats across 1400 km of coastline. These findings differ to those reported for other regions of the fishery indicating that larval supply is likely to be spatially variable, with implications for management and long-term recovery from stock depletion. The study highlights the utility of suitably designed genetic markers and spatially informed sampling strategies for gaining insights into recruitment patterns in benthic marine species, assisting in conservation planning and sustainable management of fisheries.