A quasi-maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of multivariate diffusions

A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.

Comparison of moped, scooter and motorcycle crash risk and crash severity

The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters in Australia and elsewhere in the last decade has contributed substantially to the greater use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) as a whole. As the exposure of mopeds and scooters has increased, so too has the number of reported crashes involving those PTW types, but there is currently little research comparing the safety of mopeds and, particularly, larger scooters with motorcycles. This study compared the crash risk and crash severity of motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in Queensland, Australia. Comprehensive data cleansing was undertaken to separate motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in police-reported crash data covering the five years to 30 June 2008. The crash rates of motorcycles (including larger scooters) and mopeds in terms of registered vehicles were similar over this period, although the moped crash rate showed a stronger downward trend. However, the crash rates in terms of distance travelled were nearly four times higher for mopeds than for motorcycles (including larger scooters). More comprehensive distance travelled data is needed to confirm these findings. The overall severity of moped and scooter crashes was significantly lower than motorcycle crashes but an ordered probit regression model showed that crash severity outcomes related to differences in crash characteristics and circumstances, rather than differences between PTW types per se. Greater motorcycle crash severity was associated with higher (>80 km/h) speed zones, horizontal curves, weekend, single vehicle and nighttime crashes. Moped crashes were more severe at night and in speed zones of 90 km/h or more. Larger scooter crashes were more severe in 70 km/h zones (than 60 km/h zones) but not in higher speed zones, and less severe on weekends than on weekdays. The findings can be used to inform potential crash and injury countermeasures tailored to users of different PTW types.

Costly technology adoption, redistribution and growth

We study a political economy model which aims to understand the diversity in the growth and technology-adoption experiences in different economies. In this model the cost of technology adoption is endogenous and varies across heterogeneous agents. Agents in the model vote on the proportion of revenues allocated towards such expenditures. In the early stages of development, the political-economy outcome of the model ensures that a sub-optimal proportion of government revenue is used to finance adoption-cost reducing expenditures. This sub-optimality is due to the presence of inequality; agents at the lower end of the distribution favor a larger amount of revenue allocated towards redistribution in the form of lump-sum transfers. Eventually all individuals make the switch to the better technology and their incomes converge. The outcomes of the model therefore explain why public choice is more likely to be conservative in nature; it represents the majority choice given conflicting preferences among agents. Consequently, the transition path towards growth and technology adoption varies across countries depending on initial levels of inequality.

Load bearing improves the limits of agreement for repeated in vivo measures of the speed of sound in human Achilles tendon

Axial acoustic wave propagation has been widely used in evaluating the mechanical properties of human bone in vivo. However, application of this technique to monitor soft tissues, such as tendon, has received comparatively little scientific attention. Laboratory-based research has established that axial acoustic wave transmission is not only related to the physical properties of equine tendon but is also proportional to tensile load to which it is exposed (Miles et al., 1996; Pourcelot et al., 2005). The reproducibility of the technique for in vivo measurements in human tendon, however, has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the limits of agreement for repeated measures of the speed of sound (SoS) in human Achilles tendon in vivo. Methods: A custom built ultrasound device, consisting of an A-mode 1MHz emitter and two regularly spaced receivers, was used to measure the SoS in the mid-portion of the Achilles tendon in ten healthy males and ten females (mean age: 33.8 years, range 23-56 yrs; height: 1.73±0.08 m; weight: 68.4±15.3 kg). The emitter and receivers were held at fixed positions by a polyethylene frame and maintained in close contact with the skin overlying the tendon by means of elasticated straps. Repeated SoS measurements were taken with the subject prone (non-weightbearing and relaxed Achilles tendon) and during quiet bipedal and unipedal stance. In each instance, the device was detached and repositioned prior to measurement. Results: Limits of agreement for repeated SoS measures during non-weightbearing and bipedal and unipedal stance were ±53, ±28 and ±21 m/s, respectively. The average SoS in the non-weightbearing Achilles tendon was 1804±198 m/s. There was a significant increase in the average SoS during bilateral (2122±135 m/s) (P < 0.05) and unilateral (2221±79 m/s) stance (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Repeated SoS measures in human Achilles tendon were more reliable during stance than under non-weightbearing conditions. These findings are consistent with previous research in equine tendon in which lower variability in SoS was observed with increasing tensile load (Crevier-Denoix et al, 2009). Since the limits of agreement for Achilles tendon SoS are nearly 5% of the changes previously observed during walking and therapeutic heel raise exercises, acoustic wave transmission provides a promising new non-invasive method for determining tendon properties during sports and rehabilitation related activities.

Overweight and obesity alters the cumulative transverse strain in the Achilles tendon immediately following exercise

This research evaluated the effect of obesity on the acute cumulative transverse strain of the Achilles tendon in response to exercise. Twenty healthy adult males were categorized into ‘low normal-weight’ (BMI <23 kg m−2) and ‘overweight’ (BMI >27.5 kg m−2) groups based on intermediate cut-off points recommended by the World Health Organization. Longitudinal sonograms of the right Achilles tendon were acquired immediately prior and following weight-bearing ankle exercises. Achilles tendon thickness was measured 20-mm proximal to the calcaneal insertion and transverse tendon strain was calculated as the natural log of the ratio of post- to pre-exercise tendon thickness. The Achilles tendon was thicker in the overweight group both prior to (t18 = −2.91, P = 0.009) and following (t18 = −4.87, P < 0.001) exercise. The acute transverse strain response of the Achilles tendon in the overweight group (−10.7 ± 2.5%), however, was almost half that of the ‘low normal-weight’ (−19.5 ± 7.4%) group (t18 = −3.56, P = 0.004). These findings suggest that obesity is associated with structural changes in tendon that impairs intra-tendinous fluid movement in response to load and provides new insights into the link between tendon pathology and overweight and obesity.