Using proxies to calculate the carbon impact of investment into electricity network assets

Replacement and upgrading of assets in the electricity network requires financial investment for the distribution and transmission utilities. The replacement and upgrading of network assets also represents an emissions impact due to the carbon embodied in the materials used to manufacture network assets. This paper uses investment and asset data for the GB system for 2015-2023 to assess the suitability of using a proxy with peak demand data and network investment data to calculate the carbon impacts of network investments. The proxies are calculated on a regional basis and applied to calculate the embodied carbon associated with current network assets by DNO region. The proxies are also applied to peak demand data across the 2015-2023 period to estimate the expected levels of embodied carbon that will be associated with network investment during this period. The suitability of these proxies in different contexts are then discussed, along with initial scenario analysis to calculate the impact of avoiding or deferring network investments through distributed generation projects. The proxies were found to be effective in estimating the total embodied carbon of electricity system investment in order to compare investment strategies in different regions of the GB network.

The commensal infant gut meta-mobilome as a potential reservoir for persistent multidrug resistance integrons

Despite the accumulating knowledge on the development and establishment of the gut microbiota, its role as a reservoir for multidrug resistance is not well understood. This study investigated the prevalence and persistence patterns of an integrase gene (int1), used as a proxy for integrons (which often carry multiple antimicrobial resistance genes), in the fecal microbiota of 147 mothers and their children sampled longitudinally from birth to 2 years. The study showed the int1 gene was detected in 15% of the study population, and apparently more persistent than the microbial community structure itself. We found int1 to be persistent throughout the first two years of life, as well as between mothers and their 2-year-old children. Metagenome sequencing revealed integrons in the gut meta-mobilome that were associated with plasmids and multidrug resistance. In conclusion, the persistent nature of integrons in the infant gut microbiota makes it a potential reservoir of mobile multidrug resistance.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Precipitation and floodiness

There are a number of factors that lead to non-linearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard; this non-linearity is a pertinent issue for applications that use a precipitation forecast as a proxy for imminent flood hazard. We assessed the degree of this non-linearity for the first time using a recently developed global-scale hydrological model driven by the ERA-Interim Land precipitation reanalysis (1980–2010). We introduced new indices to assess large-scale flood hazard, or floodiness, and quantified the link between monthly precipitation, river discharge and floodiness anomalies at the global and regional scales. The results show that monthly floodiness is not well correlated with precipitation, therefore demonstrating the value of hydrometeorological systems for providing floodiness forecasts for decision-makers. A method is described for forecasting floodiness using the Global Flood Awareness System, building a climatology of regional floodiness from which to forecast floodiness anomalies out to two weeks.

Accounting quality, information risk and implied volatility around earnings announcements

We examine the impact of accounting quality, used as a proxy for information risk, on the behavior of equity implied volatility around quarterly earnings announcements. Using US data during 1996–2010, we observe that lower (higher) accounting quality significantly relates to higher (lower) levels of implied volatility (IV) around announcements. Worse accounting quality is further associated with a significant increase in IV before announcements, and is found to relate to a larger resolution in IV after the announcement has taken place. We interpret our findings as indicative of information risk having a significant impact on implied volatility behavior around earnings announcements.

Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall impacts the world's most populous regions. Accurate EASM rainfall prediction necessitates robust paleoclimate reconstructions from proxy data and quantitative linkage to modern climatic conditions. Many precisely dated oxygen isotope records from Chinese stalagmites have been interpreted as directly reflecting past EASM rainfall amount variability, but recent research suggests that such records instead integrate multiple hydroclimatic processes. Using a Lagrangian precipitation moisture source diagnostic, we demonstrate that EASM rainfall is primarily derived from the Indian Ocean. Conversely, Pacific Ocean moisture export peaks during winter, and the moisture uptake area does not differ significantly between summer and winter and is thus a minor contributor to monsoonal precipitation. Our results are substantiated by an accurate reproduction of summer and winter spatial rainfall distributions across China. We also correlate modern EASM rainfall oxygen isotope ratios with instrumental rainfall amount and our moisture source data. This analysis reveals that the strength of the source effect is geographically variable, and differences in atmospheric moisture transport may significantly impact the isotopic signature of EASM rainfall at the Hulu, Dongge, and Wanxiang Cave sites. These results improve our ability to isolate the rainfall amount signal in paleomonsoon reconstructions and indicate that precipitation across central and eastern China will directly respond to variability in Indian Ocean moisture supply.

Stigma and risky behaviors among male clients of sex workers in the UK in 2001

This paper builds on existing theoretical work on sex markets (Della Giusta, Di Tommaso, and Strøm, 2009a). Using data from the British Sexual Attitudes Survey, we aim to replicate the analysis of the demand for paid sex previously conducted for the US (Della Giusta, Di Tommaso, Shima and Strøm, 2009b). We want to test formally the effect of attitudes, risky behaviors and personal characteristics on the demand for paid sex. Findings from empirical studies of clients suggest that personal characteristics (personal and family background, self-perception, perceptions of women, sexual preferences etc), economic factors (education, income, work) as well as attitudes towards risk (both health hazard and risk of being caught where sex work is illegal), and attitude towards relationships and sex are all likely to affect demand. Previous theoretical work has argued that stigma plays a fundamental role in determining both demand and risk, and that in particular due to the presence of stigma the demand for sex and for paid sex are not, as has been argued elsewhere, perfect substitutes. We use data from the British Sexual Attitudes Survey of 2001 to test these hypotheses. We find a positive effect of education (proxy for income), negative effects of professional status (proxies for stigma associated with buying sex), positive and significant effects of all risky behavior variables and no significant effects of variables which measure the relative degree of conservatism in morals. We conclude with some policy implications.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation in a high alpine stalagmite from Switzerland

The timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation, also known as Termination II (T-II), is subject of controversial discussions due to the scarcity of precisely-dated palaeoclimate records. Here we present a new precisely-dated and highly-resolved multi-proxy stalagmite record covering T-II from the high alpine Schafsloch Cave in Switzerland, an area where climate is governed by the North Atlantic. The inception of stalagmite growth at 137.4 ± 1.4 kyr before present (BP) indicates the presence of drip water and cave air temperatures of above 0°C, and is related to a climate-induced change in the thermal state (from cold- to warm-based) of the glacier above the cave. The cessation of stalagmite growth between 133.1 ± 0.7 and 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is most likely related to distinct drop in temperature associated with Heinrich stadial 11. The resumption of stalagmite growth at 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is accompanied by an abrupt increase in temperature and precipitation as indicated by distinct shifts in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition as well as in trace element concentrations. The mid-point of T-II is around 131.8 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Schafsloch Cave record is significantly earlier compared to the age of 129.1 ± 0.1 kyr BP in the Sanbao Cave record from China. The different ages between both records can be best explained by the competing effects of insolation and glacial boundary forcing on seasonality and snow cover extent in Eurasia.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Conflicting structural and geochronological data from the Ibituruna quartz-syenite (SE Brazil): Effect of protracted ""hot"" orogeny and slow cooling rate?

The Ibituruna quartz-syenite was emplaced as a sill in the Ribeira-Aracuai Neoproterozoic belt (Southeastern Brazil) during the last stages of the Gondwana supercontinent amalgamation. We have measured the Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) in samples from the Ibituruna sill to unravel its magnetic fabric that is regarded as a proxy for its magmatic fabric. A large magnetic anisotropy, dominantly due to magnetite, and a consistent magnetic fabric have been determined over the entire Ibituruna massif. The magmatic foliation and lineation are strikingly parallel to the solid-state mylonitic foliation and lineation measured in the country-rock. Altogether, these observations suggest that the Ibituruna sill was emplaced during the high temperature (similar to 750 degrees C) regional deformation and was deformed before full solidification coherently with its country-rock. Unexpectedly, geochronological data suggest a rather different conclusion. LA-ICP-MS and SHRIMP ages of zircons from the Ibituruna quartz-syenite are in the range 530-535 Ma and LA-ICP-MS ages of zircons and monazites from synkinematic leucocratic veins in the country-rocks suggest a crystallization at similar to 570-580 Ma, i.e., an HT deformation >35My older than the emplacement of the Ibituruna quartz-syenite. Conclusions from the structural and the geochronological studies are therefore conflicting. A possible explanation arises from (40)Ar-(39)Ar thermochronology. We have dated amphiboles from the quartz-syenite, and amphiboles and biotites from the country-rock. Together with the ages of monazites and zircons in the country-rock, (40)Ar-(39)Ar mineral ages suggest a very low cooling rate: <3 degrees C/My between 570 and similar to 500 Ma and similar to 5 degrees C/My between 500 and 460 Ma. Assuming a protracted regional deformation consistent over tens of My, under such stable thermal conditions the fabric and microstructure of deformed rocks may remain almost unchanged even if they underwent and recorded strain pulses separated by long periods of time. This may be a characteristic of slow cooling ""hot orogens"" that rocks deformed at significantly different periods during the orogeny, but under roughly unchanged temperature conditions, may display almost indiscernible microstructure and fabric. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The low-lying electronic states of BeP: a reliable and accurate quantum mechanical prediction

A very high level of theoretical treatment (complete active space self-consistent field CASSCF/MRCI/aug-cc-pV5Z) was used to characterize the spectroscopic properties of a manifold of quartet and doublet states of the species BeP, as yet experimentally unknown. Potential energy curves for 11 electronic states were obtained, as well as the associated vibrational energy levels, and a whole set of spectroscopic constants. Dipole moment functions and vibrationally averaged dipole moments were also evaluated. Similarities and differences between BeN and BeP were analysed along with the isovalent SiB species. The molecule BeP has a X (4)Sigma(-) ground state, with an equilibrium bond distance of 2.073 angstrom, and a harmonic frequency of 516.2 cm(-1); it is followed closely by the states (2)Pi (R(e) = 2.081 angstrom, omega(e) = 639.6 cm(-1)) and (2)Sigma(-) (R(e) = 2.074 angstrom, omega(e) = 536.5 cm(-1)), at 502 and 1976 cm(-1), respectively. The other quartets investigated, A (4)Pi (R(e) = 1.991 angstrom, omega(e) = 555.3 cm(-1)) and B (4)Sigma(-) (R(e) = 2.758 angstrom, omega(e) = 292.2 cm(-1)) lie at 13 291 and 24 394 cm(-1), respectively. The remaining doublets ((2)Delta, (2)Sigma(+)(2) and (2)Pi(3)) all fall below 28 000 cm(-1). Avoided crossings between the (2)Sigma(+) states and between the (2)Pi states add an extra complexity to this manifold of states.

Bonus : En jämförelse mellan fyra länder

Syftet med denna uppsats är att ge en bild av eventuella skillnader mellan fyra länder vad det gäller bonus till VD. Företagen som undersöks är ifrån Sverige, Storbritannien, USA och Norge. I uppsatsen redovisas teorier kring ersättningar och regelverk. Teorierna leder fram till tre stycken hypoteser som testas.Antal bolag från varje land som undersöks är 10 stycken, totalt 40 stycken. Bolagen har valts ut ifrån börslistor där de största bolagen från varje land finns med.Metoden som valts för undersökningen är en kvantitativ metod. Årsredovisningar och Proxy Statements undersöktes för att generera data.Undersökningen resulterar i att de två första hypoteserna styrks och den tredje kan inte få något stöd utifrån de material som undersöks. Som avslutning så ges förslag till vidare forskning inom ämnet.

An analysis of linkage between foreign direct investment and GDP per Capita in Pakistan : A time series analysis

This study aims to investigate the relation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan. The study is based on a basic Cobb-Douglas production function. Population over age 15 to 64 is used as a proxy for labor in the investigation. The other variables used are gross capital formation, technological gap and a dummy variable measuring among other things political stability. We find positive correlation between GDP per capita in Pakistan and two variables, FDI and population over age 15 to 64. The GDP gap (gap between GDP of USA and GDP of Pakistan) is negatively correlated with GDP per capita as expected. Political instability, economic crisis, wars and polarization in the society have no significant impact on GDP per capita in the long run.

Interaction among agents that plan

The development of practical agent languages has progressed significantly over recent years, but this has largely been independent of distinct developments in aspects of multiagent cooperation and planning. For example, while the popular AgentSpeak(L) has had various extensions and improvements proposed, it still essentially a single-agent language. In response, in this paper, we describe a simple, yet effective, technique for multiagent planning that enables an agent to take advantage of cooperating agents in a society. In particular, we build on a technique that enables new plans to be added to a plan library through the invocation of an external planning component, and extend it to include the construction of plans involving the chaining of subplans of others. Our mechanism makes use of plan patterns that insulate the planning process from the resulting distributed aspects of plan execution through local proxy plans that encode information about the preconditions and effects of the external plans provided by agents willing to cooperate. In this way, we allow an agent to discover new ways of achieving its goals through local planning and the delegation of tasks for execution by others, allowing it to overcome individual limitations.