965 resultados para Probabilistic choice models


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Telecommunications and network technology is now the driving force that ensures continued progress of world civilization. Design of new and expansion of existing network infrastructures requires improving the quality of service(QoS). Modeling probabilistic and time characteristics of telecommunication systems is an integral part of modern algorithms of administration of quality of service. At present, for the assessment of quality parameters except simulation models analytical models in the form of systems and queuing networks are widely used. Because of the limited mathematical tools of models of these classes the corresponding parameter estimation of parameters of quality of service are inadequate by definition. Especially concerning the models of telecommunication systems with packet transmission of multimedia real-time traffic.

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2015

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

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Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Fakultät für Naturwissenschaften, Univ., Dissertation, 2016

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Diese Bachelorarbeit gliedert sich in einen theoretischen und einen praktischen Abschnitt. Zunächst werden Studien- und Berufswahlmodelle aus theoretischer Sicht betrachtet. Dabei ist festzuhalten, dass kein Ansatz existiert, der den komplexen Studienwahlprozess vollständig abbildet und erklärt. Jedoch ergänzen sich verschiedene Modelle, sodass alle bedeutenden Einflussfaktoren berücksichtigt sind. Ebenso die Conjointanalyse wird einer theoretischen Betrachtung unterzogen. Als eine Methode der Präferenzmessung wird dieses Analyseverfahren häufig eingesetzt, um die Vorziehenswürdigkeit von Produkten zu ermitteln. Sowohl im Bereich der Neuproduktentwicklung, als auch bei der Marktsegmentierung und der Preisfindung findet die Analyse Verwendung. Sehr charakteristisch für die Methodik ist, dass die Präferenzbeurteilung ganzheitlich für das Produkt erfolgt und nicht direkt einzelne Produkteigenschaften bei der Auskunftsperson abgefragt werden. Besonders relevant für diese Arbeit ist die Choice-Based Conjointanalyse. Die Vorziehenswürdigkeit von Konzepten werden basierend auf Auswahlentscheidungen von Probanden erfasst. Die Beweggründe bei der Studienortwahl aus Sicht der Studierenden an der Hochschule Anhalt werden im praktischen Abschnitt dieser Ausarbeitung mit Hilfe der Choice-Based Conjointanalyse untersucht. Dafür wurde ein Fragebogen entwickelt. Es konnte ermittelt werden, dass sowohl der Ruf der Hochschule, als auch die Heimatnähe und die Höhe des Semesterbeitrages bedeutende Einflussfaktoren bei der Studiengangwahl darstellen. Darüber hinaus werden Motive der Studiengangwahl analysiert. Festzuhalten ist, dass sowohl intrinsische Motive, aber auch extrinsische Motive von hoher Wichtigkeit sind.

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A theory of network-entrepreneurs or "spin-off system" is presented in this paper for the creation of firms based on the community’s social governance. It is argued that firm’s capacity for accumulation depends on the presence of employees belonging to the same social/ethnic group with expectations of "inheriting" the firm and becoming entrepreneurs once they have been selected for their merits and loyalty towards their patrons. Such accumulation is possible because of the credibility of the patrons’ promises of supporting newcomers due to high social cohesion and specific social norms prevailing in the community. This theory is exemplified through the case of the Barcelonnettes, a group of immigrants from the Alps in the South of France (Provence) who came to Mexico in the XIX Century.

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This paper assesses empirically the importance of size discrimination and disaggregate data for deciding where to locate a start-up concern. We compare three econometric specifications using Catalan data: a multinomial logit with 4 and 41 alternatives (provinces and comarques, respectively) in which firm size is the main covariate; a conditional logit with 4 and 41 alternatives including attributes of the sites as well as size-site interactions; and a Poisson model on the comarques and the full spatial choice set (942 municipalities) with site-specific variables. Our results suggest that if these two issues are ignored, conclusions may be misleading. We provide evidence that large and small firms behave differently and conclude that Catalan firms tend to choose between comarques rather than between municipalities. Moreover, labour-intensive firms seem more likely to be located in the city of Barcelona. Keywords: Catalonia, industrial location, multinomial response model. JEL: C250, E30, R00, R12

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We use a two-person 3-stage game to investigate whether people choose to punish or reward another player by sacrificing money to increase or decrease the other person’s payoff. One player sends a message indicating an intended play, which is either favorable or unfavorable to the other player in the game. After the message, the sender and the receiver play a simultaneous 2x2 game. A deceptive message may be made, in an effort to induce the receiver to make a play favorable to the sender. Our focus is on whether receivers’ rates of monetary sacrifice depend on the process and the perceived sender’s intention, as is suggested by the literature on deception and procedural satisfaction. Models such as Rabin (1993), Sen (1997), and Charness and Rabin (1999) also permit rates of sacrifice to be sensitive to the sender’s perceived intention, while outcome-based models such as Fehr and Schmidt (1999) and Bolton and Ockenfels (1997) predict otherwise. We find that deception substantially increases the punishment rate as a response to an action that is unfavorable to the receiver. We also find that a small but significant percentage of subjects choose to reward a favorable action choice made by the sender.

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This comment corrects the errors in the estimation process that appear in Martins (2001). The first error is in the parametric probit estimation, as the previously presented results do not maximize the log-likelihood function. In the global maximum more variables become significant. As for the semiparametric estimation method, the kernel function used in Martins (2001) can take on both positive and negative values, which implies that the participation probability estimates may be outside the interval [0,1]. We have solved the problem by applying local smoothing in the kernel estimation, as suggested by Klein and Spady (1993).

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This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.

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This paper analyzes secession and group formation in a general model of contest inspired by Esteban and Ray (1999). This model encompasses as special cases rent seeking contests and policy conflicts, where agents lobby over the choice of a policy in a one-dimensional policy space. We show that in both models the grand coalition is the efficient coalition structure and agents are always better off in the grand coalition than in a symmetric coalition structure. Individual agents (in the rent seeking contest) and extremists (in the policy conflict) only have an incentive to secede when they anticipate that their secession will not be followed by additional secessions. Incentives to secede are lower when agents cooperate inside groups. The grand coalition emerges as the unique subgame perfect equilibrium outcome of a sequential game of coalition formation in rent seeking contests.

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We study the problem of a society choosing a subset of new members from a finite set of candidates (as in Barberà, Sonnenschein, and Zhou, 1991). However, we explicitly consider the possibility that initial members of the society (founders) may want to leave it if they do not like the resulting new society. We show that, if founders have separable (or additive) preferences, the unique strategy-proof and stable social choice function satisfying voters' sovereignty (on the set of candidates) is the one where candidates are chosen unanimously and no founder leaves the society.