Managing Quality under Heterogeneous Consumer Demand and Product Quality, October 2005

Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to quality, customer lifetime value, and service profit chain approaches to marketing. The model is then used to explain several empirical results pertaining to the marketing literature by explicitly articulating the trade-offs between customer satisfaction and costs (including opportunity costs) of quality. In this environment firms will find it optimal to allow some customers to go unsatisfied. We show that the relationship between the expected number of repeated purchases by an individual customer is endogenous to the choice of quality by the firm, indicating that the number of purchases cannot be chosen freely to estimate a customer’s lifetime value.

Barriers to Employment, March 2001

During the last five years, Iowa has experienced a shortage of workers and will continue to feel the impact of a short labor supply. As the state prepares to reverse this trend of a declining population, attracting immigrants and refugees has great potential. In addition, released preliminary reports from the 2000 Census are reporting growth of the Latino population in several Iowa counties. This survey was conducted as a way to supplement the information collected about the Latino population by the State Public Policy Group in 1999, Snapshot in Time: A clear view of the importance, value and impacts of the Latino population in central Iowa. (Una Foto Actual de la Comunicad Latina: Un panoramaclaro de la importancia, del valor, y de los impactos de la población Latina en el área central de Iowa.) Although this survey was enlightening, it was broad in scope. It was the goal of the agency to collect more specific data regarding workforce needs and barriers that the Latino population encounter in the State of Iowa. Although it was the desire to broaden the scope of the previous survey, it should be noted that the survey samples were not identical. But it is recognized that because the Latino population within the state is small, some of the respondents could have participated in both surveys. We were also hoping to benefit from the extensive work conducted by SPPG within the community as a way to increase the response rate for this survey. This executive summary highlights some of the most significant findings from the survey of Latinos residing in Central Iowa. This analysis centers on the impact the Latino population can have in filling the labor shortages and how Iowa can best embrace the new Iowan. In addition, some of the key findings could offer insight into removing unnecessary barriers that prevent immigrants from utilizing valuable work skills as they integrate into the workforce. This information may be insightful to community leaders and employers who want to welcome new immigrants into their community. The following diagram collected from the 2000 Census illustrates the percentage of Latinos residing in the state.

EU Enlargement and Technology Transfer to New Member States, November 2005

The European Union (EU) accomplished its biggest enlargement process in 2004 in terms of the number of countries, area, and population. This study focuses on the impact of enlargement, the resulting technology transfer on the grain sectors of the New Member States (NMS), and the consequent welfare implications. The study finds that EU enlargement has important implications for the EU and the NMS, but its impact on the world grain markets is minimal. The results show that producers in the NMS gain from accession because of higher prices, whereas consumers in most NMS face a welfare loss. Incorporating technology transfer into the accession increases the welfare gain of producers despite falling prices because of the larger supply shift. The loss of welfare for consumers in most NMS is lower in this case because of the decline in grain prices.

The Regulatory Choice between a Label and a Minimum-Quality Standard, 2005

This paper revisits the issue of the regulatory choice between a mandatory label and a minimum-quality standard. When the cost of regulation is relatively low, we show that the socially optimal choice depends on the producers’ cost structure for complying with regulation and improving quality. Under a marginal cost for improving quality, the mandatory labeling is sufficient for reaching the socially optimal level of quality. Under a fixed cost for improving quality, we show that each instrument or the combination of both instruments may emerge at the equilibrium.

Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

Dealing with Errors in QCA

This paper discusses five strategies to deal with five types of errors in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA): condition errors, systematic errors, random errors, calibration errors, and deviant case errors. These strategies are the comparative inspection of complex, intermediary, and parsimonious solutions; the use of an adjustment factor, the use of probabilistic criteria, the test of the robustness of calibration parameters, and the use of a frequency threshold for observed combinations of conditions. The strategies are systematically reviewed, assessed, and evaluated as regards their applicability, advantages, limitations, and complementarities.

Towards robust network based complex systems : from evolutionary cellular automata to biological models

Abstract Sitting between your past and your future doesn't mean you are in the present. Dakota Skye Complex systems science is an interdisciplinary field grouping under the same umbrella dynamical phenomena from social, natural or mathematical sciences. The emergence of a higher order organization or behavior, transcending that expected of the linear addition of the parts, is a key factor shared by all these systems. Most complex systems can be modeled as networks that represent the interactions amongst the system's components. In addition to the actual nature of the part's interactions, the intrinsic topological structure of underlying network is believed to play a crucial role in the remarkable emergent behaviors exhibited by the systems. Moreover, the topology is also a key a factor to explain the extraordinary flexibility and resilience to perturbations when applied to transmission and diffusion phenomena. In this work, we study the effect of different network structures on the performance and on the fault tolerance of systems in two different contexts. In the first part, we study cellular automata, which are a simple paradigm for distributed computation. Cellular automata are made of basic Boolean computational units, the cells; relying on simple rules and information from- the surrounding cells to perform a global task. The limited visibility of the cells can be modeled as a network, where interactions amongst cells are governed by an underlying structure, usually a regular one. In order to increase the performance of cellular automata, we chose to change its topology. We applied computational principles inspired by Darwinian evolution, called evolutionary algorithms, to alter the system's topological structure starting from either a regular or a random one. The outcome is remarkable, as the resulting topologies find themselves sharing properties of both regular and random network, and display similitudes Watts-Strogtz's small-world network found in social systems. Moreover, the performance and tolerance to probabilistic faults of our small-world like cellular automata surpasses that of regular ones. In the second part, we use the context of biological genetic regulatory networks and, in particular, Kauffman's random Boolean networks model. In some ways, this model is close to cellular automata, although is not expected to perform any task. Instead, it simulates the time-evolution of genetic regulation within living organisms under strict conditions. The original model, though very attractive by it's simplicity, suffered from important shortcomings unveiled by the recent advances in genetics and biology. We propose to use these new discoveries to improve the original model. Firstly, we have used artificial topologies believed to be closer to that of gene regulatory networks. We have also studied actual biological organisms, and used parts of their genetic regulatory networks in our models. Secondly, we have addressed the improbable full synchronicity of the event taking place on. Boolean networks and proposed a more biologically plausible cascading scheme. Finally, we tackled the actual Boolean functions of the model, i.e. the specifics of how genes activate according to the activity of upstream genes, and presented a new update function that takes into account the actual promoting and repressing effects of one gene on another. Our improved models demonstrate the expected, biologically sound, behavior of previous GRN model, yet with superior resistance to perturbations. We believe they are one step closer to the biological reality.

¿Es posible reducir el gasto sanitario a través del subsidio a los seguros sanitarios privados? La doble cobertura sanitaria en Catalunya. Estimación de patrones de utilización de servicios sanitarios y simulación de costes asociados a la asistencia sanit

The objective of this study consists in quantifying in money terms the potential reduction in usage of public health care outlets associated to the tenure of double (public plus private) insurance. In order to address the problem, a probabilistic model for visits to physicians is specified and estimated using data from the Catalonian Health Survey. Also, a model for the marginal cost of a visit to a physician is estimated using data from a representative sample of fee-for-service payments from a major insurer. Combining the estimates from the two models it is possible to quantify in money terms the cost/savings of alternative policies which bear an impact on the adoption of double insurance by the population. The results suggest that the private sector absorbs an important volume of demand which would be re-directed to the public sector if consumers cease to hold double insurance.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Pharmaceutical and Industrial Traits in Genetically Modified Crops: Co-existence with Conventional Agriculture, August 2006

This paper discusses the implications of using genetically modified crops to biomanufacture pharmaceuticals and industrial compounds from the perspective of their co-existence with conventional agriculture. Such plant-made pharmaceuticals and plantmade industrial products rely on exciting scientific and technological breakthroughs and promise new opportunities for the agricultural sector, but they also entail novel risks. The management of the externalities and of the possible unintended economic effects that arise in this context is critical and poses difficult questions for regulators.

Policy and the Evolution of the US Economy: 1948-2002

This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and the changes experienced by the US economy using a small scale New-Keynesian model. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques and the stability of policy parameter estimates and of the transmission of policy shocks examined. The model fits well the data and produces forecasts comparable or superior to those of alternative specifications. The parameters of the policy rule, the variance and the transmission of policy shocks have been remarkably stable. The parameters of the Phillips curve and of the Euler equations are varying.

Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary 'Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications' by Budowle et al. (2011), published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al. (2011), we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community - as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief. Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/3

The hematology laboratory in blood doping (bd): 2014 update on the athlete biological passport (APB)

Introduction: Blood doping (BD) is the use of Erythropoietic Stimulating Agents (ESAs) and/or transfusion to increase aerobic performance in athletes. Direct toxicologic techniques are insufficient to unmask sophisticated doping protocols. The Hematological module of the ABP (World Anti-Doping Agency), associates decision support technology and expert assessment to indirectly detect BD hematological effects. Methods: The ABP module is based on blood parameters, under strict pre-analytical and analytical rules for collection, storage and transport at 2-12°C, internal and external QC. Accuracy, reproducibility and interlaboratory harmonization fulfill forensic standard. Blood samples are collected in competition and out-ofcompetition. Primary parameters for longitudinal monitoring are: - hemoglobin (HGB); - reticulocyte percentage (RET); - OFF score, indicator of suppressed erythropoiesis, calculated as [HGB(g/L) * 60-√RET%]. Statistical calculation predicts individual expected limits by probabilistic inference. Secondary parameters are RBC, HCT, MCHC-MCH-MCV-RDW-IFR. ABP profiles flagged as atypical are review by experts in hematology, pharmacology, sports medicine or physiology, and classified as: - normal - suspect (to target) - likely due to BD - likely due to pathology. Results: Thousands of athletes worldwide are currently monitored. Since 2010, at least 35 athletes have been sanctioned and others are prosecuted on the sole basis of abnormal ABP, with a 240% increase of positivity to direct tests for ESA, thanks to improved targeting of suspicious athletes (WADA data). Specific doping scenarios have been identified by the Experts (Table and Figure). Figure. Typical HGB and RET profiles in two highly suspicious athletes. A. Sample 2: simultaneous increases in HGB and RET (likely ESA stimulation) in a male. B. Samples 3, 6 and 7: "OFF" picture, with high HGB and low RET in a female. Sample 10: normal HGB and increased RET (ESA or blood withdrawal). Conclusions: ABP is a powerful tool for indirect doping detection, based on the recognition of specific, unphysiological changes triggered by blood doping. The effect of factors of heterogeneity, such as sex and altitude, must also be considered. Schumacher YO, et al. Drug Test Anal 2012, 4:846-853. Sottas PE, et al. Clin Chem 2011, 57:969-976.

Recognition judgments and the performance of the recognition heuristic depend on the size of the reference class

In a series of three experiments, participants made inferences about which one of a pair of two objects scored higher on a criterion. The first experiment was designed to contrast the prediction of Probabilistic Mental Model theory (Gigerenzer, Hoffrage, & Kleinbölting, 1991) concerning sampling procedure with the hard-easy effect. The experiment failed to support the theory's prediction that a particular pair of randomly sampled item sets would differ in percentage correct; but the observation that German participants performed practically as well on comparisons between U.S. cities (many of which they did not even recognize) than on comparisons between German cities (about which they knew much more) ultimately led to the formulation of the recognition heuristic. Experiment 2 was a second, this time successful, attempt to unconfound item difficulty and sampling procedure. In Experiment 3, participants' knowledge and recognition of each city was elicited, and how often this could be used to make an inference was manipulated. Choices were consistent with the recognition heuristic in about 80% of the cases when it discriminated and people had no additional knowledge about the recognized city (and in about 90% when they had such knowledge). The frequency with which the heuristic could be used affected the percentage correct, mean confidence, and overconfidence as predicted. The size of the reference class, which was also manipulated, modified these effects in meaningful and theoretically important ways.

Direct cost of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump

Quantitative research that aimed to identify the mean total cost (MTC) of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump (PCA) in the management of pain. The non-probabilistic sample corresponded to the observation of 81 procedures in 17 units of the Central Institute of the Clinics Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo. We calculated the MTC multiplying by the time spent by nurses at a unit cost of direct labor, adding the cost of materials and medications/solutions. The MTC of connecting was R$ 107.91; maintenance R$ 110.55 and disconnecting R$ 4.94. The results found will subsidize discussions about the need to transfer money from the Unified Health System to hospitals units that perform this technique of analgesic therapy and it will contribute to the cost management aimed at making efficient and effective decision-making in the allocation of available resources.