A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

Procesos de privatización y desregulación de mercados. El caso de la política naviera y su impacto sobre la industria naval argentina

En el contexto global de las transformaciones experimentadas por el Estado, en el presente trabajo nos proponemos presentar una primera aproximación al proceso de desregulación experimentado, a lo largo de la década del 90, por un sector económico estratégico y tradicionalmente regulado, el transporte marítimo, para, en segundo término, dar cuenta de las implicancias, dada su íntima imbricación, que dicha reforma tuvo sobre la industria naval local, sector, también, protegido por el estado. Ambos sectores, que podríamos situar en el marco más amplio de la política naviera nacional, constituyen, a nuestro entender, sectores productivos y comerciales claves para comprender el papel central que juega el estado en la actividad económica. En este sentido, el análisis de la política naviera nos permitirá, por su intermedio, poner en evidencia el proceso de retraimiento que tuvo el estado, a lo largo de los años 90, de las acciones de regulación económica y, más directamente, de producción de bienes y servicios. Luego de comentar la situación preexistente del sector y de describir en detalle el proceso de desregulación comentado, señalamos las principales consecuencias que los cambios introducidos en el marco regulatorio tuvieron sobre el sector de la industria naval. Finalmente, presentamos algunas primeras reflexiones sobre el rol fundamental que la intervención estatal tiene sobre los procesos de desarrollo de determinados sectores económicos considerados estratégicos

Procesos de privatización y desregulación de mercados. El caso de la política naviera y su impacto sobre la industria naval argentina

En el contexto global de las transformaciones experimentadas por el Estado, en el presente trabajo nos proponemos presentar una primera aproximación al proceso de desregulación experimentado, a lo largo de la década del 90, por un sector económico estratégico y tradicionalmente regulado, el transporte marítimo, para, en segundo término, dar cuenta de las implicancias, dada su íntima imbricación, que dicha reforma tuvo sobre la industria naval local, sector, también, protegido por el estado. Ambos sectores, que podríamos situar en el marco más amplio de la política naviera nacional, constituyen, a nuestro entender, sectores productivos y comerciales claves para comprender el papel central que juega el estado en la actividad económica. En este sentido, el análisis de la política naviera nos permitirá, por su intermedio, poner en evidencia el proceso de retraimiento que tuvo el estado, a lo largo de los años 90, de las acciones de regulación económica y, más directamente, de producción de bienes y servicios. Luego de comentar la situación preexistente del sector y de describir en detalle el proceso de desregulación comentado, señalamos las principales consecuencias que los cambios introducidos en el marco regulatorio tuvieron sobre el sector de la industria naval. Finalmente, presentamos algunas primeras reflexiones sobre el rol fundamental que la intervención estatal tiene sobre los procesos de desarrollo de determinados sectores económicos considerados estratégicos

Procesos de privatización y desregulación de mercados. El caso de la política naviera y su impacto sobre la industria naval argentina

En el contexto global de las transformaciones experimentadas por el Estado, en el presente trabajo nos proponemos presentar una primera aproximación al proceso de desregulación experimentado, a lo largo de la década del 90, por un sector económico estratégico y tradicionalmente regulado, el transporte marítimo, para, en segundo término, dar cuenta de las implicancias, dada su íntima imbricación, que dicha reforma tuvo sobre la industria naval local, sector, también, protegido por el estado. Ambos sectores, que podríamos situar en el marco más amplio de la política naviera nacional, constituyen, a nuestro entender, sectores productivos y comerciales claves para comprender el papel central que juega el estado en la actividad económica. En este sentido, el análisis de la política naviera nos permitirá, por su intermedio, poner en evidencia el proceso de retraimiento que tuvo el estado, a lo largo de los años 90, de las acciones de regulación económica y, más directamente, de producción de bienes y servicios. Luego de comentar la situación preexistente del sector y de describir en detalle el proceso de desregulación comentado, señalamos las principales consecuencias que los cambios introducidos en el marco regulatorio tuvieron sobre el sector de la industria naval. Finalmente, presentamos algunas primeras reflexiones sobre el rol fundamental que la intervención estatal tiene sobre los procesos de desarrollo de determinados sectores económicos considerados estratégicos

Incertidumbre y actitudes pro-redistributivas: mercados de trabajo y modelos de bienestar en Europa

La articulación entre las políticas de empleo y las políticas sociales condicionan la percepción subjetiva de incertidumbre los individuos. El modelo de mercado laboral tiene un peso determinante en la percepción de incertidumbre. El empleo en sí mismo ya no es suficiente garantía de ingresos seguros. El empleo a tiempo parcial y los contratos temporales generan una creciente demanda de políticas de redistribución de los ingresos en los países del Sur y Este de Europa. En los países escandinavos los mismos tipos de contratos laborales generan menos desigualdad porque el empleo público contribuye a generar un “círculo virtuoso” que favorece las políticas de igualdad y la conciliación entre la vida laboral y familiar. A nivel individual las actitudes pro-redistributivas las impulsan las mujeres, aquellas personas con incertidumbre en sus ingresos económicos y con bajo nivel de estudios. Por el contrario, quienes más confían en el éxito individual y el mérito son los jóvenes con estudios universitarios y aquellos que perciben ingresos económicos altos.

Imagens do terceiro setor: um estudo com pais e responsáveis financeiros das organizações educacionais

The present report is the result of an applied research in the educational entities of the third sector, aiming to demonstrate whether the financial influences the perception of users on the image of those entities. For both used the prospect of integrative marketing relationship adapting to and developing a set of indicators which bore the measurement of images from the model of Machado et al (2005) and Kotler and Fox (1994). The sample included a total of 187 parents and financial responsibility in 03 (three) institutions of education in Natal / RN. These data were processed by multivariate statistical analysis, factor analysis, linear regression, analysis of cluster and discriminant analysis. The factor analysis also identified 6 images perceived by users of services. Next were the relationships of cause and effect between the financial and images formed. In discriminant analysis, was identified two distinct groups of parents and guardians with financial perceptions similar and well defined. The result of the work shows that the differential level of financial participation of parents and guardians not influence the formation of the images formed from educational institutions of the third sector

Sobre (vivência) e mortalidade de pequenos negócios: o caso de mercados varejistas potiguares

This paper‟s starting point was the objective of understanding the relation between the reasons pointed out by small businesses owners for the continuity or shutdown of their businesses, and the reasons presented by the Environmental Theories. The paper discusses the Environmental Theories understand that it is supported by a systemic metaphor speech, discussing the theme in terms of organizational survival and mortality . The text reviews the literature showing the changes in the administrative thinking regarding the organization versus environment relation, and presenting general ideas about the micro and small businesses. In methodological terms, the qualitative approach was used in the research. Regarding the data collection technique, an in-depth thematic interview was used. It was carried out considering the elements of the techniques of life history and oral history, always giving priority to real world related narratives told by the interviewed subjects. The empirical corpus of the research was made up of seven owners of small retail businesses in two Potiguar cities: Natal and Mossoró. The interpretative and analytical process focused, at first, on the reflexive dialogue with each one of the owners‟ professional life history and business management experience, constituting the first level of analysis: reflections on individual narratives; and, afterwards, the interpretative process was developed through the analysis of all the subjects‟ statements, identifying the recurring themes and constituting the second level of analysis: reflection on the totalizing narrative. The themes identified in the totalizing narrative, that refer to the continuity of the businesses are: evolution, control, fidelity, liking what one does for a living. The themes that came up as reasons for shutdown are: lack of empathy with the business, lack of evolution, competition problems, suppliers and the government. The text synthesizes its comprehensions affirming that the reasons associated with continuity and shutdown of small markets, for this group of owners specifically, come up as a permanent tension between the volunteerism (quite human) and the determinism (systemic). The tension is shown in testimonies that at the same time evoke the organicist systemic logic through the themes evolution/no evolution, and also counterpoints with themes related to the interested human action, based on desires, feelings and personal convictions such as: liking what one does/ lack of empathy. As for the reflexive dialogue between the postulates of the Environmental Theories and the narratives, the results make it possible to affirm that, differently from the tension expressed by the subjects while talking about their reasons, the reasons associated with survival and mortality of businesses according to the Environmental Theories are theoretically polarized, seeming to preach options that are stagnated and shaping towards the subjects involved in the organization-environment relation

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model