MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

Macroeconomic risk in commodities market

The thesis studies the presence of macroeconomic risk in the commodities futures market. I present strong evidence that there is a strong relationship between macroeconomic risk and individual commodities future returns. Furthermore, long-only trading strategies seem to be strongly exposed to systematic risk, while long-short trading strategies (based on basis, momentum and basis-momentum) are found to present no such risk. Instead, I found a strong sentiment exposure in the portfolio returns of these long-short strategies, mainly during recessions. The advantages of following long-short strategies become even clearer when analyzing different macroeconomic regimes.

Quadratic programming versus second order con programming in portfolio optimization

Despite the extensive literature in finding new models to replace the Markowitz model or trying to increase the accuracy of its input estimations, there is less studies about the impact on the results of using different optimization algorithms. This paper aims to add some research to this field by comparing the performance of two optimization algorithms in drawing the Markowitz Efficient Frontier and in real world investment strategies. Second order cone programming is a faster algorithm, appears to be more efficient, but is impossible to assert which algorithm is better. Quadratic Programming often shows superior performance in real investment strategies.

Hybrid investment strategy active portfolio management – US stock market

This thesis aims to develop an alternative active managed portfolio strategy based on companies‟ Fundamental and Technical Analysis and analyze its finals results. There is a big distinction between the two approaches and the main objective is to understand if it is possible to take advantage of both. With this in mind a Hybrid investment strategy for the US stock market, due to its dimension and liquidity, which was able to outperform the S&P 500 index, the benchmark, during both Bear and Bull Markets between 2000 and 2015.

Economics consulting project for the Iberian Marketing Oil department of Galp Energia: Strategy and Marketing guidelines for Galp Energia’sconvenience business in the Iberian market

Field lab: Consulting lab

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Local diversity of tropical and temperature ant faunas (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

Qualitative and quantitative collections of ants made in the region of Manaus, Brazil (evergreen tropical humid forest), and in western North Carolina, USA (deciduous temperate/wet forest), were undertaken to investigate. latitudinal patterns of ant diversity and community organization on regional and local scales. We have found to date 307 ant species in the Municipality of Manaus. Totals ranging from 134 to 270+ species have been reported in the literature for other tropical regions of less than 10,000km2. In contrast, temperate ant surveys generally report only SO to 150 species in similar or larger areas. Sampling at sardine baits set 10m apart on square grids, we found forest ecosystems near Manaus to be much richer and more diverse in ants than those sampled in North Carolina: 28 species vs. 5-10 species in 50 collections and 16 vs. 3 previously unrecorded species discovered with each doubling of sample size. Room's (1975a) results from climatically simllar Papua New Guinea forest agree closely with those from Manaus. We suggest that one important factor contributing to the increased diversity of tropical, omnivorous ants may be greater variety of nest sites available for specialization.

Consulting project for the Iberian marketing Oil department of Galp Energia: Strategy and marketing guidelines for Galp Energia's convenience business in the Iberian market

Field lab: Consulting lab

Effects of forest fragmentation on amazonian understory bird communities

SUMMARYData form an intensive mist-netting mark-recapture program in the central Amazon demostrate significant changes in the undesrtory avian community in isolate patches of 1 and 10 ha of terra firme forest. Following isolation, capture rates increase significantly as birds fleeing the felled forest entered the. newly formed forest fragments. Movement to and from the reserve is restricted, as witnessed by an increase in recapture percentages following isolation. Species of birds that axe. obligate army ant followers disappeared at the time the surrounding habitat was removed from 1 - and 10 - ha areas. The complex mixed-species insectivorous flocks typical of Amazonian forests deteriorated within 2 years of isolation of 1 - and 10 - ha forest fragments. Several species of mid-story insectivores changed their foraging behavior after isolation of small forest reserves.

The persistence of ant-following birds in small amazonian forest fragments

SUMMARYMist-net captures of army ant-following bird were monitored during the isolation of central Amazonian forest fragments of 1 ha (n = 5), 10 ha (n = 4) and 100 ha (n = 1). Post-isolation captures of the three obligate ant-following birds Dendrocinela merula, Pithys albifrons, and Gymnopithys rufigula decreased significantly in all fragments. post-isolation captures of four facultative ant-following species were not significantly different in forest fragments of 1 ha and 10 ha, although two species decreased significantly in the 100 ha fragment. Experimental introductions of obligate species into small forest fragments in the absence and presence of introduced Eciton burchelli army ant colonies resulted in significantly greater recaptures of introduced birds when active army ant colonies were present. Of the 105 birds introduced, 58 ' 55%) crossed 100-320 m od dedorested area an were recaptured in continuous forest.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

International placement analysis of the German business market for a Nova Achool of Business and Economics graduate student

Changes in today’s society led to the evolution of professional migrations and individual searches for more suitable professional opportunities and careers outside one’s countries. International Placement is nowadays one of the world’s biggest trends in higher education for the future ahead and an appealing demand of the Millennium generations. The following work project aims to study the German business market identifying the most attractive German companies and respective graduate programs for a Nova School of Business and Economics graduate student. The study’s conclusion relies on concrete strategic suggestions regarding the implementation of the results and practical use of the outcome provided.

Marketing plan for online aqctivity of Rota Vicentina boosting direct website sales

The nature tourism experienced a great expansion of its market with the appearance of different lifestyles. In this Work Project a study regarding the website direct sales of Rota Vicentina was developed. Its website shows the idea of being solely an information structure and not a purchase one, leading to a current absence of online sales. Hence, it is suggested the modification of its business model, using different instruments and channels. Some digital marketing recommendations were developed in order to boost website sales, such as a platform for online reviews, remarketing campaigns and social media activity.

Firing and training costs and labour market segmentation

This dissertation consists of three essays on the labour market impact of firing and training costs. The modelling framework resorts to the search and matching literature. The first chapter introduces firing costs, both liner and non-linear, in a new Keynesian model, analysing business cycle effects for different wage rigidity degrees. The second chapter adds training costs in a model of a segmented labour market, accessing the interaction between these two features and the skill composition of the labour force. Finally, the third chapter analyses empirically some of the issues raised in the second chapter.

Land of the rising soy an internationalization plan for nutre to the Japanese Soy milk market

The present work project studies the next step in the internationalization process of Shoyce, the soy milk products brand of Nutre. In order to select the best target market in the Asia-Pacific for Nutre to export, a sequential screening process was developed using two complementary approaches: preliminary country screening and country ranking, followed by an in-depth analysis of the country ranking first. The analysis revealed Japan as the most attractive country for Shoyce’s international expansion. Potential entry modes in the Japanese soy milk market were then evaluated, whereby direct exporting via a local distributor was found to be the most appropriate.