Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Projecto de um regulador linear de tensão: LDO

Os reguladores de tensão LDO são utilizados intensivamente na actual indústria de electrónica, são uma parte essencial de um bloco de gestão de potência para um SoC. O aumento de produtos portáteis alimentados por baterias levou ao crescimento de soluções totalmente integradas, o que degrada o rendimento dos blocos analógicos que o constituem face às perturbações introduzidas na alimentação. Desta forma, surge a necessidade de procurar soluções cada vez mais optimizadas, impondo assim novas soluções, e/ou melhoramentos dos circuitos de gestão de potência, tendo como objectivo final o aumento do desempenho e da autonomia dos dispositivos electrónicos. Normalmente este tipo de reguladores tem a corrente de saída limitada, devido a problemas de estabilidade associados. Numa tentativa de evitar a instabilidade para as correntes de carga definidas e aumentar o PSRR do mesmo, é apresentado um método de implementação que tem como objectivo melhorar estas características, em que se pretende aumentar o rendimento e melhorar a resposta à variação da carga. No entanto, a técnica apresentada utiliza polarização adaptativa do estágio de potência, o que implica um aumento da corrente de consumo. O regulador LDO foi implementado na tecnologia CMOS UMC 0.18μm e ocupa uma área inferior a 0,2mm2. Os resultados da simulação mostram que o mesmo suporta uma transição de corrente 10μA para 100mA, com uma queda de tensão entre a tensão de alimentação e a tensão de saída inferior a 200mV. A estabilidade é assegurada para todas as correntes de carga. O tempo de estabelecimento é inferior a 6μs e as variações da tensão de saída relativamente a seu valor nominal são inferiores a 5mV. A corrente de consumo varia entre os 140μA até 200μA, o que permite atingir as especificações proposta para um PSRR de 40dB@10kHz.

e-learning in the classroom?

As teachers, we are challenged everyday to solve pedagogical problems and we have to fight for our students’ attention in a media rich world. I will talk about how we use ICT in Initial Teacher Training and give you some insight on what we are doing. The most important benefit of using ICT in education is that it makes us reflect on our practice. There is no doubt that our classrooms need to be updated, but we need to be critical about every peace of hardware, software or service that we bring into them. It is not only because our budgets are short, but also because e‐learning is primarily about learning, not technology. Therefore, we need to have the knowledge and skills required to act in different situations, and choose the best tool for the job. Not all subjects are suitable for e‐learning, nor do all students have the skills to organize themselves their own study times. Also not all teachers want to spend time programming or learning about instructional design and metadata. The promised land of easy use of authoring tools (e.g. eXe and Reload) that will lead to all teachers become Learning Objects authors and share these LO in Repositories, all this failed, like previously HyperCard, Toolbook and others. We need to know a little bit of many different technologies so we can mobilize this knowledge when a situation requires it: integrate e‐learning technologies in the classroom, not a flipped classroom, just simple tools. Lecture capture, mobile phones and smartphones, pocket size camcorders, VoIP, VLE, live video broadcast, screen sharing, free services for collaborative work, save, share and sync your files. Do not feel stressed to use everything, every time. Just because we have a whiteboard does not mean we have to make it the centre of the classroom. Start from where you are, with your preferred subject and the tools you master. Them go slowly and try some new tool in a non‐formal situation and with just one or two students. And you don’t need to be alone: subscribe a mailing list and share your thoughts with other teachers in a dedicated forum, even better if both are part of a community of practice, and share resources. We did that for music teachers and it was a success, in two years arriving at 1.000 members. Just do it.

Learning in higher education: strategies to overcome challenges faced by adult students - lessons drawn from two studies in portugal

Int’l J. of Information and Communication Technology Education, 3(2), 1-14, April-June 2007

Improving the learning experience and learning environment of adults in Higher Education – Project LIHE: the Portuguese case

Project LIHE: the Portuguese Case. ESREA Fourth Access Network Conference – “Equity, Access and Participation: Research, Policy and Practice”. Edinburgh (Scotland), 11 – 13 December, 2003.

Cyclic deformation of bidisperse two-dimensional foams

In-plane deformation of foams was studied experimentally by subjecting bidisperse foams to cycles of traction and compression at a prescribed rate. Each foam contained bubbles of two sizes with given area ratio and one of three initial arrangements: sorted perpendicular to the axis of deformation (iso-strain), sorted parallel to the axis of deformation (iso-stress), or randomly mixed. Image analysis was used to measure the characteristics of the foams, including the number of edges separating small from large bubbles N-sl, the perimeter (surface energy), the distribution of the number of sides of the bubbles, and the topological disorder mu(2)(N). Foams that were initially mixed were found to remain mixed after the deformation. The response of sorted foams, however, depended on the initial geometry, including the area fraction of small bubbles and the total number of bubbles. For a given experiment we found that (i) the perimeter of a sorted foam varied little; (ii) each foam tended towards a mixed state, measured through the saturation of N-sl; and (iii) the topological disorder mu(2)(N) increased up to an "equilibrium" value. The results of different experiments showed that (i) the change in disorder, Delta mu(2)(N), decreased with the area fraction of small bubbles under iso-strain, but was independent of it under iso-stress; and (ii) Delta mu(2)(N) increased with Delta N-sl under iso-strain, but was again independent of it under iso-stress. We offer explanations for these effects in terms of elementary topological processes induced by the deformations that occur at the bubble scale.

Grid Integration of Offshore Wind Farms Using Modular Marx Multilevel Converters

This paper proposes the use of a Modular Marx Multilevel Converter, as a solution for energy integration between an offshore Wind Farm and the power grid network. The Marx modular multilevel converter is based on the Marx generator, and solves two typical problems in this type of multilevel topologies: modularity and dc capacitor voltage balancing. This paper details the strategy for dc capacitor voltage equalization. The dynamic models of the converter and power grid are presented in order to design the converter ac output voltages and the dc capacitor voltage controller. The average current control is presented and used for power flow control, harmonics and reactive power compensation. Simulation results are presented in order to show the effectiveness of the proposed (MC)-C-3 topology.

Valor em risco (VAR - value at risk): metodologias não paramétricas

O VAR (Value at Risk) ,valor em risco, é a perda máxima provável de uma carteira para um nível de confiança determinado, num horizonte temporal especificado.

O tratamento dos activos biológicos nas microentidades

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Dr. Paulo Filipe Teixeira Aguiar

Activos fixos tangíveis numa empresa industrial do ramo automóvel transição para o SNC

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre António Costa Reis

O papel do fundo de maneio das pequenas e médias empresas

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

A novel framework for modeling value for the customer, an essay on negotiation

This paper proposes a novel framework for modelling the Value for the Customer, the so-called the Conceptual Model for Decomposing Value for the Customer (CMDVC). This conceptual model is first validated through an exploratory case study where the authors validate both the proposed constructs of the model and their relations. In a second step the authors propose a mathematical formulation for the CMDVC as well as a computational method. This has enabled the final quantitative discussion of how the CMDVC can be applied and used in the enterprise environment, and the final validation by the people in the enterprise. Along this research, we were able to confirm that the results of this novel quantitative approach to model the Value for the Customer is consistent with the company's empirical experience. The paper further discusses the merits and limitations of this approach, proposing that the model is likely to bring value to support not only the contract preparation at an Ex-Ante Negotiation Phase, as demonstrated, but also along the actual negotiation process, as finally confirmed by an enterprise testimonial.

Conceptual model for decomposing the value for the customer

Value has been defined in different theoretical contexts as need, desire, interest, standard /criteria, beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. The creation of value is key to any business, and any business activity is about exchanging some tangible and/or intangible good or service and having its value accepted and rewarded by customers or clients, either inside the enterprise or collaborative network or outside. “Perhaps surprising then is that firms often do not know how to define value, or how to measure it” (Anderson and Narus, 1998 cited by [1]). Woodruff echoed that we need “richer customer value theory” for providing an “important tool for locking onto the critical things that managers need to know”. In addition, he emphasized, “we need customer value theory that delves deeply into customer’s world of product use in their situations” [2]. In this sense, we proposed and validated a novel “Conceptual Model for Decomposing the Value for the Customer”. To this end, we were aware that time has a direct impact on customer perceived value, and the suppliers’ and customers’ perceptions change from the pre-purchase to the post-purchase phases, causing some uncertainty and doubts.We wanted to break down value into all its components, as well as every built and used assets (both endogenous and/or exogenous perspectives). This component analysis was then transposed into a mathematical formulation using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), so that the uncertainty and vagueness of value perceptions could be embedded in this model that relates used and built assets in the tangible and intangible deliverable exchange among the involved parties, with their actual value perceptions.

Are severe occlusal problems more frequent in permanent than deciduous dentition?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and severity of occlusal problems in populations at the ages of deciduous and permanent dentition and to carry out a meta-analysis to estimate the weighted odds ratio for occlusal problems comparing both groups. METHODS: Data of a probabilistic sample (n=985) of schoolchildren aged 5 and 12 from an epidemiological study in the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil, were analyzed using univariate logistic regression (MLR). Results of cross-sectional study data published in the last 70 years were examined in the meta-analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of occlusal problems increased from 49.0% (95% CI =47.4%-50.6%) in the deciduous dentition to 71.3% (95% CI =70.3%-72.3%) in the permanent dentition (p<0.001). Dentition was the only variable significantly associated to the severity of malocclusion (OR=1.87; 95% CI =1.43-2.45; p<0.001). The variables sex, type of school and ethnic group were not significant. The meta-analysis showed that a weighted OR of 1.95 (1.91; 1.98) when compared the second dentition period with deciduous and mixed dentition. CONCLUSIONS: In planning oral health services, some activities are indicated to reduce the proportion of moderate/severe malocclusion to levels that are socially more acceptable and economically sustainable.

Otimização da imagem em tomografia computorizada no exame de tórax

Mestrado em Radiações Aplicadas às Tecnologias da Saúde. Área de especialização: Imagem Digital.