Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness

Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression storage, and roughness coefficient in channels. In the final (a posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albujón watershed; 556 km 2 ), which showed a complex multi-peak response. First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly different behavior.

A new family of generalized distributions

Kumaraswamy [Generalized probability density-function for double-bounded random-processes, J. Hydrol. 462 (1980), pp. 79-88] introduced a distribution for double-bounded random processes with hydrological applications. For the first time, based on this distribution, we describe a new family of generalized distributions (denoted with the prefix `Kw`) to extend the normal, Weibull, gamma, Gumbel, inverse Gaussian distributions, among several well-known distributions. Some special distributions in the new family such as the Kw-normal, Kw-Weibull, Kw-gamma, Kw-Gumbel and Kw-inverse Gaussian distribution are discussed. We express the ordinary moments of any Kw generalized distribution as linear functions of probability weighted moments (PWMs) of the parent distribution. We also obtain the ordinary moments of order statistics as functions of PWMs of the baseline distribution. We use the method of maximum likelihood to fit the distributions in the new class and illustrate the potentiality of the new model with an application to real data.

A linear optimization approach to the combined production planning model

Two fundamental processes usually arise in the production planning of many industries. The first one consists of deciding how many final products of each type have to be produced in each period of a planning horizon, the well-known lot sizing problem. The other process consists of cutting raw materials in stock in order to produce smaller parts used in the assembly of final products, the well-studied cutting stock problem. In this paper the decision variables of these two problems are dependent of each other in order to obtain a global optimum solution. Setups that are typically present in lot sizing problems are relaxed together with integer frequencies of cutting patterns in the cutting problem. Therefore, a large scale linear optimizations problem arises, which is exactly solved by a column generated technique. It is worth noting that this new combined problem still takes the trade-off between storage costs (for final products and the parts) and trim losses (in the cutting process). We present some sets of computational tests, analyzed over three different scenarios. These results show that, by combining the problems and using an exact method, it is possible to obtain significant gains when compared to the usual industrial practice, which solve them in sequence. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematics of nuclear densities, deformations and excitation energies within the context of the generalized rotation-vibration model

We present a large-scale systematics of charge densities, excitation energies and deformation parameters For hundreds of heavy nuclei The systematics is based on a generalized rotation vibration model for the quadrupole and octupole modes and takes into account second-order contributions of the deformations as well as the effects of finite diffuseness values for the nuclear densities. We compare our results with the predictions of classical surface vibrations in the hydrodynamical approximation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved.

On the optimality of the Friedman Rule with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation

We study the optimal “inflation tax” in an environment with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxes. We first derive the general conditions needed for the optimality of the Friedman rule in this setup. These general conditions are distinct in nature and more easily interpretable than those obtained in the literature with a representative agent and linear taxation. We then study two standard monetary specifications and derive their implications for the optimality of the Friedman rule. For the shopping-time model the Friedman rule is optimal with essentially no restrictions on preferences or transaction technologies. For the cash-credit model the Friedman rule is optimal if preferences are separable between the consumption goods and leisure, or if leisure shifts consumption towards the credit good. We also study a generalized model which nests both models as special cases.

Controle preditivo não linear baseado no modelo de Hammerstein com prova de estabilidade

The Predictive Controller has been receiving plenty attention in the last decades, because the need to understand, to analyze, to predict and to control real systems has been quickly growing with the technological and industrial progress. The objective of this thesis is to present a contribution for the development and implementation of Nonlinear Predictive Controllers based on Hammerstein model, as well as to its make properties evaluation. In this case, in the Nonlinear Predictive Controller development the time-step linearization method is used and a compensation term is introduced in order to improve the controller performance. The main motivation of this thesis is the study and stability guarantee for the Nonlinear Predictive Controller based on Hammerstein model. In this case, was used the concepts of sections and Popov Theorem. Simulation results with literature models shows that the proposed approaches are able to control with good performance and to guarantee the systems stability

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson-generalized gamma regression model with long-term survivors

In this paper, we proposed a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest following the Conway-Maxwell distribution and the time for the event to follow the generalized gamma distribution. This distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, bathtub and unimodal-shaped including some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Some appropriate matrices are derived in order to evaluate local influence on the estimates of the parameters by considering different perturbations, and some global influence measurements are also investigated. Finally, data set from the medical area is analysed.