Distance-based kriging relying on proxy simulations for inverse conditioning

Let us consider a large set of candidate parameter fields, such as hydraulic conductivity maps, on which we can run an accurate forward flow and transport simulation. We address the issue of rapidly identifying a subset of candidates whose response best match a reference response curve. In order to keep the number of calls to the accurate flow simulator computationally tractable, a recent distance-based approach relying on fast proxy simulations is revisited, and turned into a non-stationary kriging method where the covariance kernel is obtained by combining a classical kernel with the proxy. Once the accurate simulator has been run for an initial subset of parameter fields and a kriging metamodel has been inferred, the predictive distributions of misfits for the remaining parameter fields can be used as a guide to select candidate parameter fields in a sequential way. The proposed algorithm, Proxy-based Kriging for Sequential Inversion (ProKSI), relies on a variant of the Expected Improvement, a popular criterion for kriging-based global optimization. A statistical benchmark of ProKSI’s performances illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the approach when using different kinds of proxies.

A Nonstationary Space-Time Gaussian Process Model for Partially Converged Simulations

In the context of expensive numerical experiments, a promising solution for alleviating the computational costs consists of using partially converged simulations instead of exact solutions. The gain in computational time is at the price of precision in the response. This work addresses the issue of fitting a Gaussian process model to partially converged simulation data for further use in prediction. The main challenge consists of the adequate approximation of the error due to partial convergence, which is correlated in both design variables and time directions. Here, we propose fitting a Gaussian process in the joint space of design parameters and computational time. The model is constructed by building a nonstationary covariance kernel that reflects accurately the actual structure of the error. Practical solutions are proposed for solving parameter estimation issues associated with the proposed model. The method is applied to a computational fluid dynamics test case and shows significant improvement in prediction compared to a classical kriging model.

A benchmark of kriging-based infill criteria for noisy optimization

Responses of many real-world problems can only be evaluated perturbed by noise. In order to make an efficient optimization of these problems possible, intelligent optimization strategies successfully coping with noisy evaluations are required. In this article, a comprehensive review of existing kriging-based methods for the optimization of noisy functions is provided. In summary, ten methods for choosing the sequential samples are described using a unified formalism. They are compared on analytical benchmark problems, whereby the usual assumption of homoscedastic Gaussian noise made in the underlying models is meet. Different problem configurations (noise level, maximum number of observations, initial number of observations) and setups (covariance functions, budget, initial sample size) are considered. It is found that the choices of the initial sample size and the covariance function are not critical. The choice of the method, however, can result in significant differences in the performance. In particular, the three most intuitive criteria are found as poor alternatives. Although no criterion is found consistently more efficient than the others, two specialized methods appear more robust on average.

Estimating Annual CO2 Flux for Lutjewad Station Using Three Different Gap-Filling Techniques

Long-term measurements of CO2 flux can be obtained using the eddy covariance technique, but these datasets are affected by gaps which hinder the estimation of robust long-term means and annual ecosystem exchanges. We compare results obtained using three gap-fill techniques: multiple regression (MR), multiple imputation (MI), and artificial neural networks (ANNs), applied to a one-year dataset of hourly CO2 flux measurements collected in Lutjewad, over a flat agriculture area near the Wadden Sea dike in the north of the Netherlands. The dataset was separated in two subsets: a learning and a validation set. The performances of gap-filling techniques were analysed by calculating statistical criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), maximum absolute error (MaxAE), and mean square bias (MSB). The gap-fill accuracy is seasonally dependent, with better results in cold seasons. The highest accuracy is obtained using ANN technique which is also less sensitive to environmental/seasonal conditions. We argue that filling gaps directly on measured CO2 fluxes is more advantageous than the common method of filling gaps on calculated net ecosystem change, because ANN is an empirical method and smaller scatter is expected when gap filling is applied directly to measurements.

Association between hospice care and psychological outcomes in Alzheimer's spousal caregivers.

CONTEXT Dementia care giving can lead to increased stress, physical and psychosocial morbidity, and mortality. Anecdotal evidence suggests that hospice care provided to people with dementia and their caregivers may buffer caregivers from some of the adverse outcomes associated with family caregiving in Alzheimer's Disease (AD). OBJECTIVES This pilot study examined psychological and physical outcomes among 32 spousal caregivers of patients with AD. It was hypothesized that caregivers who utilized hospice services would demonstrate better outcomes after the death of their spouse than caregivers who did not utilize hospice. METHODS The charts of all spousal caregivers enrolled in a larger longitudinal study from 2001 to 2006 (N=120) were reviewed, and participants whose spouse had died were identified. Of these, those who received hospice care (n=10) were compared to those who did not (n=22) for various physiological and psychological measures of stress, both before and after the death of the care recipient. An Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA), with postdeath scores as the dependent variable and pre-death scores as covariates, was used for all variables. RESULTS Significant group differences were found in postdeath depressive symptoms (HAM-D; F(1,29)=6.10, p<0.05) and anxiety symptoms (HAM-A; F(1,29)=5.71, p<0.05). Most psychological outcome variables demonstrated moderate effect sizes with a Cohen's d of>0.5 between groups. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that hospice enrollment may ameliorate the detrimental psychological effects in caregivers who have lost a spouse with Alzheimer's Disease. Based on these pilot data, further prospective investigation is warranted.

Report on 2010-2013 Excavations at Horvat Kur, Galilee

Four seasons of excavations at Horvat Kur in the Galilee (250570/754485) have exposed the remains of a broadhouse synagogue from the Byzantine period. The building was entered through a portico on the west or a doorway on the south. The fill beneath the portico included the discarded remains of a once colored mosaic as well as more than 1000 coins. A low bench of basalt stones (some of which were plastered) runs along the interior walls, interrupted only by a stone bemah in the center of the southern wall. The synagogue is thus oriented toward Jerusalem. Near the bemah, an ornamented limestone seat was found in situ atop the bench. The building underwent several changes and repairs in the course of its lifespan. On either side of the bemah, north-south rows of columns rested on stylobate. A basalt stone table was found in re-use in the eastern stylobate. Nicknamed “the Horvat Kur stone,” this monolith features geometric figures on three sides and figurative representations on one side. Its original function is as yet subject of research. A narrow test-trench into the sediment of a cistern located outside the northern wall of the synagogue has produced nearly thirty intact vessels of the early Byzantine period, mostly cooking pots and water jars. In addition a dense sequence of pollen samples has been taken. Preliminary interpretation of these finds indicates that the Horvat Kur synagogue illustrates Byzantine synagogue construction, decoration, and use in the setting of a Galilean village of modest economic circumstances.

Factors that determine penumbral tissue loss in acute ischaemic stroke

The goal of acute stroke treatment with intravenous thrombolysis or endovascular recanalization techniques is to rescue the penumbral tissue. Therefore, knowing the factors that influence the loss of penumbral tissue is of major interest. In this study we aimed to identify factors that determine the evolution of the penumbra in patients with proximal (M1 or M2) middle cerebral artery occlusion. Among these factors collaterals as seen on angiography were of special interest. Forty-four patients were included in this analysis. They had all received endovascular therapy and at least minimal reperfusion was achieved. Their penumbra was assessed with perfusion- and diffusion-weighted imaging. Perfusion-weighted imaging volumes were defined by circular singular value decomposition deconvolution maps (Tmax > 6 s) and results were compared with volumes obtained with non-deconvolved maps (time to peak > 4 s). Loss of penumbral volume was defined as difference of post- minus pretreatment diffusion-weighted imaging volumes and calculated in per cent of pretreatment penumbral volume. Correlations between baseline characteristics, reperfusion, collaterals, time to reperfusion and penumbral volume loss were assessed using analysis of covariance. Collaterals (P = 0.021), reperfusion (P = 0.003) and their interaction (P = 0.031) independently influenced penumbral tissue loss, but not time from magnetic resonance (P = 0.254) or from symptom onset (P = 0.360) to reperfusion. Good collaterals markedly slowed down and reduced the penumbra loss: in patients with thrombolysis in cerebral infarction 2 b-3 reperfusion and without any haemorrhage, 27% of the penumbra was lost with 8.9 ml/h with grade 0 collaterals, whereas 11% with 3.4 ml/h were lost with grade 1 collaterals. With grade 2 collaterals the penumbral volume change was -2% with -1.5 ml/h, indicating an overall diffusion-weighted imaging lesion reversal. We conclude that collaterals and reperfusion are the main factors determining loss of penumbral tissue in patients with middle cerebral artery occlusions. Collaterals markedly reduce and slow down penumbra loss. In patients with good collaterals, time to successful reperfusion accounts only for a minor fraction of penumbra loss. These results support the hypothesis that good collaterals extend the time window for acute stroke treatment.

Depression impacts the course of recovery in patients with acute low back pain

Little is known about the course of recovery of acute low back pain (LBP) patients as a function of depression. In a prospective study, 286 acute LBP patients were assessed at baseline and followed up over 6 months. Recovery was defined as improvement in the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Repeated-measures analysis of covariance was employed with ODI as repeated factor, age, sex, and body mass index as covariates, depression and all other potential prognostic factors as between-subject factors. Of study participants, 18% were classified as depressive (>33 points on the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale). Of 286 participants, 135 were lost to follow-up. In the longitudinal sample of 151 patients the course of recovery was slower in depressive patients. Depression was associated with LBP especially after 6 weeks and should therefore be included in screening instruments for acute LBP patients to identify those at risk of delayed recovery at an early stage.

Models of DNA sequence evolution

Models of DNA sequence evolution and methods for estimating evolutionary distances are needed for studying the rate and pattern of molecular evolution and for inferring the evolutionary relationships of organisms or genes. In this dissertation, several new models and methods are developed.^ The rate variation among nucleotide sites: To obtain unbiased estimates of evolutionary distances, the rate heterogeneity among nucleotide sites of a gene should be considered. Commonly, it is assumed that the substitution rate varies among sites according to a gamma distribution (gamma model) or, more generally, an invariant+gamma model which includes some invariable sites. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach was developed for estimating the shape parameter of the gamma distribution $(\alpha)$ and/or the proportion of invariable sites $(\theta).$ Computer simulation showed that (1) under the gamma model, $\alpha$ can be well estimated from 3 or 4 sequences if the sequence length is long; and (2) the distance estimate is unbiased and robust against violations of the assumptions of the invariant+gamma model.^ However, this ML method requires a huge amount of computational time and is useful only for less than 6 sequences. Therefore, I developed a fast method for estimating $\alpha,$ which is easy to implement and requires no knowledge of tree. A computer program was developed for estimating $\alpha$ and evolutionary distances, which can handle the number of sequences as large as 30.^ Evolutionary distances under the stationary, time-reversible (SR) model: The SR model is a general model of nucleotide substitution, which assumes (i) stationary nucleotide frequencies and (ii) time-reversibility. It can be extended to SRV model which allows rate variation among sites. I developed a method for estimating the distance under the SR or SRV model, as well as the variance-covariance matrix of distances. Computer simulation showed that the SR method is better than a simpler method when the sequence length $L>1,000$ bp and is robust against deviations from time-reversibility. As expected, when the rate varies among sites, the SRV method is much better than the SR method.^ The evolutionary distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies: The statistical properties of the paralinear and LogDet distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies were studied. First, I developed formulas for correcting the estimation biases of the paralinear and LogDet distances. The performances of these formulas and the formulas for sampling variances were examined by computer simulation. Second, I developed a method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the paralinear distance, so that statistical tests of phylogenies can be conducted when the nucleotide frequencies are nonstationary. Third, a new method for testing the molecular clock hypothesis was developed in the nonstationary case. ^

A comparison of Markov and generalized linear models of hospital mortality

This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^

A nonparametric method of comparing the partial areas under two correlated receiver operating characteristic curves

A non-parametric method was developed and tested to compare the partial areas under two correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. Based on the theory of generalized U-statistics the mathematical formulas have been derived for computing ROC area, and the variance and covariance between the portions of two ROC curves. A practical SAS application also has been developed to facilitate the calculations. The accuracy of the non-parametric method was evaluated by comparing it to other methods. By applying our method to the data from a published ROC analysis of CT image, our results are very close to theirs. A hypothetical example was used to demonstrate the effects of two crossed ROC curves. The two ROC areas are the same. However each portion of the area between two ROC curves were found to be significantly different by the partial ROC curve analysis. For computation of ROC curves with large scales, such as a logistic regression model, we applied our method to the breast cancer study with Medicare claims data. It yielded the same ROC area computation as the SAS Logistic procedure. Our method also provides an alternative to the global summary of ROC area comparison by directly comparing the true-positive rates for two regression models and by determining the range of false-positive values where the models differ. ^

Stable-Isotope Time Series and Precipitation Origin from Firn-Core and Snow Samples, Altai Glaciers, Siberia

In the summers of 2001 and 2002, glacio-climatological research was performed at 4110-4120 m a.s.l. on the Belukha snow/firn plateau, Siberian Altai. Hundreds of samples from snow pits and a 21 m snow/firn core were collected to establish the annual/seasonal/monthly depth-accumulation scale, based on stable-isotope records, stratigraphic analyses and meteorological and synoptic data. The fluctuations of water stable-isotope records show well-preserved seasonal variations. The delta(18)O and delta D relationships in precipitation, snow pits and the snow/firn core have the same slope to the covariance as that of the global meteoric water line. The origins of precipitation nourishing the Belukha plateau were determined based on clustering analysis of delta(18)O and d-excess records and examination of synoptic atmospheric patterns. Calibration and validation of the developed clusters occurred at event and monthly timescales with about 15% uncertainty. Two distinct moisture sources were shown: oceanic sources with d-excess < 12 parts per thousand, and the Aral-Caspian closed drainage basin sources with d-excess > 12 parts per thousand. Two-thirds of the annual accumulation was from oceanic precipitation, of which more than half had isotopic ratios corresponding to moisture evaporated over the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation from the Arctic/Pacific Ocean had the lowest deuterium excess, contributing one-tenth to annual accumulation.

Significant Contribution of Large Particles to Optical Backscattering in the Open Ocean

The light scattering properties of oceanic particles have been suggested as an alternative index of phytoplankton biomass than chlorophyll-a concentration (chl-a), with the benefit of being less sensitive to physiological forcings (e.g., light and nutrients) that alter the intracellular pigment concentrations. The drawback of particulate scattering is that it is not unique to phytoplankton. Nevertheless, field studies have demonstrated that, to first order, the particulate beam-attenuation coefficient (c(p)) can track phytoplankton biomass. The relationship between c(p) and the particulate backscattering coefficient (b(bp)), a property retrievable from space, has not been fully evaluated, largely due to a lack of open-ocean field observations. Here, we present extensive data on inherent optical properties from the Equatorial Pacific surface waters and demonstrate a remarkable coherence in b(bp) and c(p). Coincident measurements of particle size distributions (PSDs) and optical properties of size-fractionated samples indicate that this covariance is due to both the conserved nature of the PSD and a greater contribution of phytoplankton-sized particles to b(bp) than theoretically predicted. These findings suggest that satellite-derived b(bp)could provide similar information on phytoplankton biomass in the open ocean as c(p).

Plasticity to wind is modular and genetically variable in Arabidopsis thaliana

Thigmomorphogenesis, the characteristic phenotypic changes by which plants react to mechanical stress, is a widespread and probably adaptive type of phenotypic plasticity. However, little is known about its genetic basis and population variation. Here, we examine genetic variation for thigmomorphogenesis within and among natural populations of the model system Arabidopsis thaliana. Offspring from 17 field-collected European populations was subjected to three levels of mechanical stress exerted by wind. Overall, plants were remarkably tolerant to mechanical stress. Even high wind speed did not significantly alter the correlation structure among phenotypic traits. However, wind significantly affected plant growth and phenology, and there was genetic variation for some aspects of plasticity to wind among A. thaliana populations. Our most interesting finding was that phenotypic traits were organized into three distinct and to a large degree statistically independent covariance modules associated with plant size, phenology, and growth form, respectively. These phenotypic modules differed in their responsiveness to wind, in the degree of genetic variability for plasticity, and in the extent to which plasticity affected fitness. It is likely, therefore, that thigmomorphogenesis in this species evolves quasi-independently in different phenotypic modules.

Professional musicians listen differently to music

INTRODUCTION: Experience-based adaptation of emotional responses is an important faculty for cognitive and emotional functioning. Professional musicians represent an ideal model in which to elicit experience-driven changes in the emotional processing domain. The changes of the central representation of emotional arousal due to musical expertise are still largely unknown. The aim of the present study was to investigate the electroencephalogram (EEG) correlates of experience-driven changes in the domain of emotional arousal. Therefore, the differences in perceived (subjective arousal via ratings) and physiologically measured (EEG) arousal between amateur and professional musicians were examined. PROCEDURE: A total of 15 professional and 19 amateur musicians listened to the first movement of Ludwig van Beethoven's 5th symphony (duration=∼7.4min), during which a continuous 76-channel EEG was recorded. In a second session, the participants evaluated their emotional arousal during listening. In a tonic analysis, we examined the average EEG data over the time course of the music piece. For a phasic analysis, a fast Fourier transform was performed and covariance maps of spectral power were computed in association with the subjective arousal ratings. RESULTS: The subjective arousal ratings of the professional musicians were more consistent than those of the amateur musicians. In the tonic EEG analysis, a mid-frontal theta activity was observed in the professionals. In the phasic EEG, the professionals exhibited an increase of posterior alpha, central delta, and beta rhythm during high arousal. DISCUSSION: Professionals exhibited different and/or more intense patterns of emotional activation when they listened to the music. The results of the present study underscore the impact of music experience on emotional reactions.