Microstructure Order Flow: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Nonlinear Forecasts

In this paper we propose a novel empirical extension of the standard market microstructure order flow model. The main idea is that heterogeneity of beliefs in the foreign exchange market can cause model instability and such instability has not been fully accounted for in the existing empirical literature. We investigate this issue using two di¤erent data sets and focusing on out- of-sample forecasts. Forecasting power is measured using standard statistical tests and, additionally, using an alternative approach based on measuring the economic value of forecasts after building a portfolio of assets. We nd there is a substantial economic value on conditioning on the proposed models.

Evaluation of different Cypermethrin formulations and concentrations in the control of Musca domestica

Cypermethrin (4 g/l, 5 g/l wettable powder and 7 ml/l, 10 ml/l emulsifiable concentrate) was tested, under laboratory conditions, against the adult Musca domestica. As a standard for comparison, a 6 ml/l concentrate suspension formulation of deltamethrin was used. One and twenty-four hours after application, mortality counts showed that the substances under test killed, respectively, more than 80% and 85% of the exposed insects. Under the conditions of the test, cypermethrin was considered effective in the control of the house fly.

Is MDCT enough reliable for the evaluation of acute colitis including the underlying etiology? : correlation with colonoscopy and pathology : P2

Purpose: 1. To assess the diagnostic value of MDCT for acute colitis of various origin confirmed by colonoscopy and histology. 2. To evaluate the accuracy of MDCT of making the correct differential diagnosis. Methods and materials: The electronic hospital database from January 2006 to August 2008 revealed 351 patients with acute colitis of any origin wdetected by colonoscopy. In 85 out of these patients MDCT had been simultaneously performed (delay 3.1 days). Two radiologists jointly reviewed their corresponding CT features without knowledge of pathology and correlated them with the final histological diagnosis. Results: Eighty patients were finally included (46 women, mean age 63.4). Colitis was of ischemic (n = 35, 44%) or infectious (n = 15, 19%) origin. 18 patients (23%) had acute ulcerative colitis or Crohn's disease, in 10 patients (12%) another inflammatory cause and in two patients (2%) post radiation colitis was proven. MDCT was positive in 63 patients (78.9%). In 11 out of the 17 negative MDCT, the examination had been performed without large bowel distention. Ischemic colitis was responsible for 47.1% of the negative MDCT. Correct differential diagnosis was made in 32 (50.7%) out of the 63 positive MDCT. Among the different etiologies, the ischemic colitis was the most often misdiagnosed cause (n = 17, 58.6%). Conclusion: Large bowel distension is mandatory for reliable MDCT detection of acute colitis of any origin. Among the different aetiologies the ischemic cause is the most often associated with false negative MDCT findings and, in case of positive features, the most difficult to recognize as such.

Evaluation of prenatal diagnosis of cleft lip with or without cleft palate and cleft palate by ultrasound: experience from 20 European registries. EUROSCAN study group.

Ultrasound scans in the mid-trimester of pregnancy are now a routine part of antenatal care in most European countries. Using data from registries of congenital anomalies a study was undertaken in Europe. The objective of the study was to evaluate prenatal detection of cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL(P)) and cleft palate (CP). All CL(P) and CPs suspected prenatally and identified at birth in the period 1996-98 were registered from 20 Congenital Malformation Registers from the following European countries: Austria, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Spain, Switzerland, The Netherlands, UK, Ukraine. These registries followed the same methodology. A total of 709,027 births were covered; 7758 cases with congenital malformations were registered. Included in the study were 751 cases reported with facial clefts: 553 CL(P) and 198 CP. The prenatal diagnosis by transabdominal ultrasound of CL(P) was made in 65/366 cases with an isolated malformation, in 32/62 cases with chromosomal anomaly, in 30/89 cases with multiple malformations and in 21/36 syndromic cases. The prenatal diagnosis of CP was made in 13/198 cases. One hundred pregnancies were terminated (13%); in 97 of these the cleft was associated with other malformations.

The regional economic impacts of biofuels: A review of multisectoral modelling techniques and evaluation of applications

The regional economic impact of biofuel production depends upon a number of interrelated factors: the specific biofuels feedstock and production technology employed; the sector’s embeddedness to the rest of the economy, through its demand for local resources; the extent to which new activity is created. These issues can be analysed using multisectoral economic models. Some studies have used (fixed price) Input-Output (IO) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modelling frameworks, whilst a nascent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) literature has also begun to examine the regional (and national) impact of biofuel development. This paper reviews, compares and evaluates these approaches for modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels.

The regional economic impacts of biofuels: A review of multisectoral modelling techniques and evaluation of applications

The regional economic impact of biofuel production depends upon a number of interrelated factors: the specific biofuels feedstock and production technology employed; the sector’s embeddedness to the rest of the economy, through its demand for local resources; the extent to which new activity is created. These issues can be analysed using multisectoral economic models. Some studies have used (fixed price) Input-Output (IO) and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) modelling frameworks, whilst a nascent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) literature has also begun to examine the regional (and national) impact of biofuel development. This paper reviews, compares and evaluates these approaches for modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels.

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS: We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

Combinatorial Synthesis and Biological Evaluation of Inhibitors of D-Ala-D-Ala-Ligase

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Max Planck Institut of Molecular Phisiology, Germany, from 2006 to 2008.The work carried out during this postdoctoral stage was focused on two different projects. Firstly, identification of D-Ala D-Ala Inhibitors and the development of new synthethic approaches to obtain lipidated peptides and proteins and the use of these lipidated proteins in biological and biophysical studies. In the first project, new D-Ala D-Ala inhibitors were identified by using structural alignments of the ATP binding sites of the bacterial ligase DDl and protein and lipid kinases in complex with ATP analogs. We tested a series of commercially available kinase inhibitors and found LFM-A13 and Tyrphostine derivatives to inhibit DDl enzyme activity. Based on the initial screening results we synthesized a series of malononitrilamide and salicylamide derivatives and were able to confirm the validity of these scaffolds as inhibitors of DDl. From this investigation we gained a better understanding of the structural requirements and limitations necessary for the preparation of ATP competitive DDl inhibitors. The compounds in this study may serve as starting points for the development of bi-substrate inhibitors that incorporate both, an ATP competitive and a substrate competitive moiety. Bisubstrate inhibitors that block the ATP and D-Ala binding sites should exhibit enhanced selectivity and potency profiles by preferentially inhibiting DDl over kinases. In the second project, an optimized synthesis for tha alkylation of cysteins using the thiol ene reaction was establisehd. This new protocol allowed us to obtain large amounts of hexadecylated cysteine that was required for the synthesis of differently lipidated peptides. Afterwards the synthesis of various N-ras peptides bearing different lipid anchors was performed and the peptides were ligated to a truncated N-ras protein. The influence of this differently lipidated N-ras proteins on the partioning and association of N-Ras in model membrane subdomains was studied using Atomic Force Microscopy.

Development of mavoglurant and its potential for the treatment of fragile X syndrome.

Introduction: Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is the most common inherited cause of intellectual disability. With no curative treatment available, current therapeutic approaches are aimed at symptom management. FXS is caused by silencing the FMR1 gene, which encodes FMRP; as loss of FMRP leads to the development of symptoms associated with FXS. Areas covered: In this evaluation, the authors examine the role of the metabotropic glutamate receptor 5 (mGluR5) in the pathophysiology of FXS, and its suitability as a target for rescuing the disease state. Furthermore, the authors review the evidence from preclinical studies of pharmacological interventions targeting mGluR5 in FXS. Lastly, the authors assess the findings from clinical studies in FXS, in particular the use of the Aberrant Behavior Checklist-Community Edition (ABC-C) and the recently developed ABC-C for FXS scale, as clinical endpoints to assess disease modification in this patient population. Expert opinion: There is cautious optimism for the successful treatment of the core behavioral and cognitive symptoms of FXS based on preclinical data in animal models and early studies in humans. However, the association between mGluR5-heightened responsiveness and the clinical phenotype in humans remains to be demonstrated. Many questions regarding the optimal treatment and outcome measures of FXS remain unanswered.

Evaluation of the histopathological classifications of American cutaneous and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis

In order to evaluate the reliability of histopathological classifications of cutaneous and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis the authors compared the histopathological patterns of two biopsies taken simultaneously from the same patient, and classified the material according to Ridley et al. (1980), to Magalhães et al. (1986a), and to a more simplified classification with only three patterns. District histopathological aspects, were observed in different lesions or even in the same lesion. The authors concluded that histopathological patterns do not represent a stage of tegumentary leishmaniasis, thus they can not be correlated with prognosis and therapeutical response as suggested in the literature.

Design and evaluation of a solid sampler for the monitoring of airborne 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) and its prepolymers in 2-component spray painting

An active, solvent-free solid sampler was developed for the collection of 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) aerosol and prepolymers. The sampler was made of a filter impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine contained in a filter holder. Interferences with HDI were observed when a set of cellulose acetate filters and a polystyrene filter holder were used; a glass fiber filter and polypropylene filter cassette gave better results. The applicability of the sampling and analytical procedure was validated with a test chamber, constructed for the dynamic generation of HDI aerosol and prepolymers in commercial two-component spray paints (Desmodur(R) N75) used in car refinishing. The particle size distribution, temporal stability, and spatial uniformity of the simulated aerosol were established in order to test the sample. The monitoring of aerosol concentrations was conducted with the solid sampler paired to the reference impinger technique (impinger flasks contained 10 mL of 0.5 mg/mL 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine in toluene) under a controlled atmosphere in the test chamber. Analyses of derivatized HDI and prepolymers were carried out by using high-performance liquid chromatography and ultraviolet detection. The correlation between the solvent-free and the impinger techniques appeared fairly good (Y = 0.979X - 0.161; R = 0.978), when the tests were conducted in the range of 0.1 to 10 times the threshold limit value (TLV) for HDI monomer and up to 60-mu-g/m3 (3 U.K. TLVs) for total -N = C = O groups.

Evaluation of the xenodiagnosis of chronic Chagas patients infected ten years or over in an area where transmission has been interrupted - Iguatama and Pains, west Minas Gerais State, Brazil

To evaluate the results of xenodiagnosis in chronic Chagas patients infected for ten years or over in an area where transmission has been stemmed as well as the performance of these tests applied one or more times to determine the presence of the paraiste in serum-positive patients for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, 570 xenodiagnosis were performed in 246 patients by exoposing each pacient to 40 Triatoma infestans nymphs of 3 rd/4th stage once, twice or three times, at 30 days intervals. The 570 xenodiagnosis showed overall positive results in 50.7% with a peak 78% in patients under 20 years of age, and 60.5% in those over 60. Of the l58 patients who underwent three xenodiagnosis, 51 (32.3%) had three positive tests, 48 (30.3%) had all negative results, and the remainder had alternating positve and negative findings. There was no difference in number of positive results between the 1st, 2nd and 2rd tests; however, the 1st and 2nd trials added up to 53.2% and the sum total of all three trials was 57.7%.

Mass spectrometry for the evaluation of cardiovascular diseases based on proteomics and lipidomics.

The identification and quantification of proteins and lipids is of major importance for the diagnosis, prognosis and understanding of the molecular mechanisms involved in disease development. Owing to its selectivity and sensitivity, mass spectrometry has become a key technique in analytical platforms for proteomic and lipidomic investigations. Using this technique, many strategies have been developed based on unbiased or targeted approaches to highlight or monitor molecules of interest from biomatrices. Although these approaches have largely been employed in cancer research, this type of investigation has been met by a growing interest in the field of cardiovascular disorders, potentially leading to the discovery of novel biomarkers and the development of new therapies. In this paper, we will review the different mass spectrometry-based proteomic and lipidomic strategies applied in cardiovascular diseases, especially atherosclerosis. Particular attention will be given to recent developments and the role of bioinformatics in data treatment. This review will be of broad interest to the medical community by providing a tutorial of how mass spectrometric strategies can support clinical trials.

Validation and long-term evaluation of a modified on-line chiral analytical method for therapeutic drug monitoring of (R,S)-methadone in clinical samples.

Matrix effects, which represent an important issue in liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or tandem mass spectrometry detection, should be closely assessed during method development. In the case of quantitative analysis, the use of stable isotope-labelled internal standard with physico-chemical properties and ionization behaviour similar to the analyte is recommended. In this paper, an example of the choice of a co-eluting deuterated internal standard to compensate for short-term and long-term matrix effect in the case of chiral (R,S)-methadone plasma quantification is reported. The method was fully validated over a concentration range of 5-800 ng/mL for each methadone enantiomer with satisfactory relative bias (-1.0 to 1.0%), repeatability (0.9-4.9%) and intermediate precision (1.4-12.0%). From the results obtained during validation, a control chart process during 52 series of routine analysis was established using both intermediate precision standard deviation and FDA acceptance criteria. The results of routine quality control samples were generally included in the +/-15% variability around the target value and mainly in the two standard deviation interval illustrating the long-term stability of the method. The intermediate precision variability estimated in method validation was found to be coherent with the routine use of the method. During this period, 257 trough concentration and 54 peak concentration plasma samples of patients undergoing (R,S)-methadone treatment were successfully analysed for routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

Pharmacological and toxicological evaluation of Alpinia speciosa

Alpinia speciosa Schum or A. nutans is a plant of the Zingiberanceae family, Known popularly as "colony" (colônia) and used as a diuretic and to control hypertensión. We have determinated the concentration of Na+ and K+ found in the alcoholic extract and in the tea concoction. They contained 51.0mEq Na+, and 132 mEq K+ in the extract, and 0,0 mEq of Na+ and 26 mEq K+ in the tea. Phytochemical analysis of the leaves demonstrated the presence of catecquic tanins, phenols and alkaloids, and also some essential oils. When injected intra-peritoneally the hydroalcoholic extract, in range of 100 a 1400 mg/Kg, (or 2500-18000 mg/Kg orally) produced in mice: writhing, psychomorot excitation, hypokinesis and pruritus. The LD50 by ip was 0.760 + or - 0.126 g/Kg and 10.0 + or - 2.5 g/Kg by oral administration for the hydroalcoholic extract. Subacute toxicity made injecting daily for 30 days the LD10 in rats caused an increase in transaminases and lactate dehydrogenase, whereas other parameters such as nlood glucose, urea and creatinine were normal. A histopathological analysis of liver, spleen, gut, lung and heart showed no alterations. The drug also produced a prolongation of the sleeping time. The hydroalcoholic extract induced int he rat and in the dog a dose-dependent fall in blood pressure in doses of 10 to 30 mg/Kg. In isolated atria the extract induced a reduction of the frequnecy and in the inotropic responses. Neither the extract nor the tea had an effect on the diuresis of the rat.