Oil Transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2020 and 2030

This study is part of the Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies (MIMIC) project. The purpose of this study is to provide a current state analysis of oil transportation volumes in the Baltic Sea and to create scenarios for oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland for the years 2020 and 2030. Future scenarios and information about oil transportation will be utilized in the modelling of oil transportation risks, which will be carried out as part of the MIMIC project. Approximately 290 million tons of oil and oil products were transported in the Baltic Sea in 2009, of which 55% (160 million tons) via the Gulf of Finland. Oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland have increased from 40 million to almost 160 million tonnes over the last ten years. In Russia and Estonia, oil transportation mainly consists of export transports of the Russian oil industry. In Finnish ports in the Gulf of Finland, the majority of oil traffic is concentrated to the port of Sköldvik, while the remainder mainly consists of different oil products for domestic use. Transit transports to/from Russia make up small volumes of oil transportation. The largest oil ports in the Gulf of Finland are Primorsk, Tallinn, St. Petersburg and Sköldvik. The basis for the scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030 is formed by national energy strategies, the EU`s climate and energy strategies as well other energy and transportation forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030. Three alternative scenarios were produced for both 2020 and 2030. The oil volumes are based on the expert estimates of nine specialists. The specialists gave three volumes for each scenario: the expected oil transport volumes, and the minimum and maximum volumes. Variations in the volumes between the scenarios are not large, but each scenario tends to have rather a large difference between the figures for minimum and maximum volumes. This variation between the minimum and maximum volumes ranges around 30 to 40 million tonnes depending on the scenario. On the basis of this study, no a dramatic increase in oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland is to be expected. Most of the scenarios only forecasted a moderate growth in maritime oil transportation compared to the current levels. The effects of the European energy policy favouring renewable energy sources can be seen in the 2030 scenarios, in which the transported oil volumes are smaller than in the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.

Russian metals for arctic offshore structures

With an increasingly growing demand for natural resources, the Arctic region has become an attractive area, holding about 15% of world oil. Ice shrinkage caused by global warming encourages the development of offshore and ship-building sectors. Russia, as one of the leading oil and gas production countries is participating actively in cold resistant materials research, since half of its territory belongs to the Arctic environment, which held considerable stores of oil. Nowadays most Russian offshore platforms are located in the Sakhalin Island area, which geographically does not belong to the Arctic, but has com-parable environmental conditions. Russia recently has manufactured several offshore platforms. It became clear that further development of the Arctic off-shore structures with necessary reliability is highly depending on the materials employed. This work pursues the following objectives:  to provide a comprehensive review on Russian metals used for Arctic offshore structures on the base of standards, books, journal articles and companies reports  to overview various Arctic offshore structures and its structural characteristics  briefly discuss materials testing methods for low temperatures Master`s thesis focuses on specifications and description of Russian metals which are already in use and can be used for Arctic offshore structures. Work overviews several groups of steel, such as low carbon, low alloy, chromium containing steels, stainless steels, aluminium and nanostructured steels. Materials under discussion are grouped based on the standards, for instance the work covers shipbuilding and structural steels at the different sections. This paper provides an overview of important Russian Arctic offshore projects built for use in Russia and ordered by foreign countries. Future trends in development of the Arctic materials are discussed. Based on the information provided in this Master`s thesis it is possible to learn about Russian metals used for ships and offshore platforms operated in the Arctic region. Paper can be used as the comprehensive review of current materials, such as various steels, aluminium and nanomaterials.

Taxonomy, species richness and biogeography of Finnish crane flies (Diptera, Tipuloidea).

Biodiversity is unequally spread throughout terrestrial ecosystems. The highest species richness of animals and plants is encountered around the Equator, and naturalists observe a decrease in the number of creatures with increasing latitude. Some animal groups, however, display an anomalous species richness pattern, but these are exceptions to the general rule. Crane flies (Diptera, Tipuloidea) are small to large sized, non-biting nematoceran insects, being mainly associated with moist environments. The species richness of crane flies is highest in the tropics, but these insects are species rich and abundant in all biogeographic realms, boreal and arctic biomes included. The phylogeny and systematics of crane flies are still at an early stage and somewhat controversial. New species are constantly discovered even from temperate Europe, faunistically the best known continent. Crane flies have been rather neglected group of insects in Finland. The history of Finnish crane fly taxonomy and faunistics started in 1907, the year when Carl Lundström published his two first articles on tipuloids. Within roughly 100 years there have been only a handful of entomologists studying the Finnish fauna, and the species richness and natural history of these flies have remained poorly understood and mapped. The aim of this thesis is to clarify the taxonomy of Finnish crane flies, present an updated and annotated list of species and seek patterns in regional species richness and assemblage composition. Tipula stackelbergi Alexander has been revised (I). This species was elevated to a species rank from a subspecific rank under T. pruinosa Wiedemann and T. stackelbergi was also deleted from the list of European crane flies. Two new synonyms were found: T. subpruinosa Mannheims is a junior synonym of T. freyana Lackschewitz and T. usuriensis Alexander is a junior synonym of T. pruinosa. A new species Tipula recondita Pilipenko & Salmela has been described (II). Both morphology and COI (mtDNA) sequences were used in the assessment of the status of the species. The new species is highly disjunct, known from Finland and Russian Far East. A list of Finnish crane flies was presented, including the presence of species in the Finnish biogeographical provinces (III). A total of twenty-four species were formally reported for the first time from Finland and twenty-two previously reported species were deleted from the list. A short historical review on the studies of Finnish crane flies has been provided. The current list of Finnish species consists of 338 crane flies (IV, Appendix I). Species richness of all species and saproxylic/fungivorous species is negatively correlated with latitude, but mire-dwelling species show a reversed species richness gradient (i.e. an increase in the number of species toward north). Provincial assemblages displayed a strong latitudinal gradient and faunistic distance increased with increasing geographical distance apart of the provinces. Nearly half (48 %) of the Finnish crane flies are Trans-Palaearctic, roughly one-third (34 %) are West Palaearctic and only 16 and 2 % are Holarctic and Fennoscandian, respectively. Due to the legacy of Pleistocene glaciations, endemic Fennoscandian species are problematic and it is thus concluded that there are probably no true endemic crane flies in this region. Finally, there are probably species living within Finnish borders that have hitherto remained unnoticed. Based on subjective assessment, the number of “true” (i.e. recorded + unknown species) species count of Finnish crane flies is at minimum 350.

Logistics of North-West Russia and Rail Baltica: Standpoints of Private Sector

The main aims of the present report are to describe the current state of railway transport in Russia, and to gather standpoints of Russian private transportation logistics sector towards the development of new railway connection called Rail Baltica Growth Corridor, connecting North-West Russia with Germany through the Baltic States and Poland. North-West Russia plays important role not only in Russian logistics, but also wider European markets as in container sea ports handling is approx. 2.5 mill. TEU p.a. and handling volume in all terminals is above 190 million tons p.a. The whole transportation logistics sector is shortly described as an operational environment for railways – this is done through technical and economic angles. Transportation development is always going in line with economics of the country, so the analysis on economical development is also presented. Logistics integration of the country is strongly influenced by its engagement in the international trade. Although, raw material handling at sea ports and container transports (imports) are blossoming, domestic transportation market is barely growing (in long-term perspective). Thus, recent entrance of Russia into World Trade Organization (WTO) is analyzed theme in this research, as the WTO is an important regulator of the foreign trade and enabler of volume growth in foreign trade related transportation logistics. However, WTO membership can influence negatively the development of Russia’s own industry and its volumes (these have been uncompetitive in global markets for decades). Data gathering in empirical part was accomplished by semi-structured case study interviews among North-West Russian logistics sector actors (private). These were conducted during years 2012-2013, and research compiles findings out of ten case company interviews. Although, there was no sea port involved in the study, most of the interviewed companies relied in European Logistics within significant parts in short sea shipping and truck combined transportation chains (in Russian part also using railways). As the results of the study, it could be concluded that Rail Baltica is seen as possible transport corridor in most of the interviewed companies, if there is enough cargo available. However, interviewees are a bit sceptical, because major and large-scale infrastructural improvements are needed. Delivery time, frequency and price level are three main factors influencing the attractiveness of Rail Baltica route. Price level is the most important feature, but if RB can offer other advantages such as higher frequency, shorter lead times or more developed set of value-added services, then some flexibility is possible for the price level. Environmental issues are not the main criteria of today, but are recognized and discussed among customers. Great uncertainty exists among respondents e.g. on forthcoming sulphur oxide ban on Baltic Sea shipping (whether or not it is going to be implemented in Russia). Rather surprisingly, transportation routes to Eastern Europe and Mediterranean area are having higher value and price space than those to Germany/Central Europe. Border crossing operations (traction monopoly at rails and customs), gauge widths as well as unclear decision-making processes (in Russia), are named as hindering factors. Performance standards for European connected logistics among Russian logistics sector representatives are less demanding as compared to neighbourhood countries belonging to EU.

Russia’s WTO membership and its effects on global wood sourcing

The aim of the thesis was to find the effects of World Trade Organization and economic integration on the wood sourcing process from Russia to Finland and to the European Union. Also, the fo reign direct investments to Russian forest industry are studied within the WTO and Economic integration framework. Qualitative interviews were carried out as primary data (total of 5 interviews). Research studies and articles regarding the same subject were used as secondary data. Results show that companies may increase their volumes of imported timber from Russia due to the reduction of custom tariffs. Russian companies are becoming more productive, but there are still several problems with legislation, infrastructure, availability and harvesting profitability in some areas. These suggest that sourcing process may not be profitable in the future. The Russian forest industry sector will not gain significant foreign direct investments in the recent years because of the infrastructure and overall atmosphere of investments. Forest industry is not seen as profitable enough. The demand for cellulose and paper in Russia is not increasing fast enough and the cost inflation is cutting the profits made from producing in Russia.

Reflexive Space. A Constructionist Model of the Russian Reflexive Marker

This study examines the structure of the Russian Reflexive Marker ( ся/-сь) and offers a usage-based model building on Construction Grammar and a probabilistic view of linguistic structure. Traditionally, reflexive verbs are accounted for relative to non-reflexive verbs. These accounts assume that linguistic structures emerge as pairs. Furthermore, these accounts assume directionality where the semantics and structure of a reflexive verb can be derived from the non-reflexive verb. However, this directionality does not necessarily hold diachronically. Additionally, the semantics and the patterns associated with a particular reflexive verb are not always shared with the non-reflexive verb. Thus, a model is proposed that can accommodate the traditional pairs as well as for the possible deviations without postulating different systems. A random sample of 2000 instances marked with the Reflexive Marker was extracted from the Russian National Corpus and the sample used in this study contains 819 unique reflexive verbs. This study moves away from the traditional pair account and introduces the concept of Neighbor Verb. A neighbor verb exists for a reflexive verb if they share the same phonological form excluding the Reflexive Marker. It is claimed here that the Reflexive Marker constitutes a system in Russian and the relation between the reflexive and neighbor verbs constitutes a cross-paradigmatic relation. Furthermore, the relation between the reflexive and the neighbor verb is argued to be of symbolic connectivity rather than directionality. Effectively, the relation holding between particular instantiations can vary. The theoretical basis of the present study builds on this assumption. Several new variables are examined in order to systematically model variability of this symbolic connectivity, specifically the degree and strength of connectivity between items. In usage-based models, the lexicon does not constitute an unstructured list of items. Instead, items are assumed to be interconnected in a network. This interconnectedness is defined as Neighborhood in this study. Additionally, each verb carves its own niche within the Neighborhood and this interconnectedness is modeled through rhyme verbs constituting the degree of connectivity of a particular verb in the lexicon. The second component of the degree of connectivity concerns the status of a particular verb relative to its rhyme verbs. The connectivity within the neighborhood of a particular verb varies and this variability is quantified by using the Levenshtein distance. The second property of the lexical network is the strength of connectivity between items. Frequency of use has been one of the primary variables in functional linguistics used to probe this. In addition, a new variable called Constructional Entropy is introduced in this study building on information theory. It is a quantification of the amount of information carried by a particular reflexive verb in one or more argument constructions. The results of the lexical connectivity indicate that the reflexive verbs have statistically greater neighborhood distances than the neighbor verbs. This distributional property can be used to motivate the traditional observation that the reflexive verbs tend to have idiosyncratic properties. A set of argument constructions, generalizations over usage patterns, are proposed for the reflexive verbs in this study. In addition to the variables associated with the lexical connectivity, a number of variables proposed in the literature are explored and used as predictors in the model. The second part of this study introduces the use of a machine learning algorithm called Random Forests. The performance of the model indicates that it is capable, up to a degree, of disambiguating the proposed argument construction types of the Russian Reflexive Marker. Additionally, a global ranking of the predictors used in the model is offered. Finally, most construction grammars assume that argument construction form a network structure. A new method is proposed that establishes generalization over the argument constructions referred to as Linking Construction. In sum, this study explores the structural properties of the Russian Reflexive Marker and a new model is set forth that can accommodate both the traditional pairs and potential deviations from it in a principled manner.

Local Embeddedness and Knowledge Acquisition and How They Affect Finnish Business Operations in Russia

This pilot project aims examine the factors of the Finnish subsidiaries local embeddedness, their knowledge creation capabilities and the transfer mechanisms of new practices in the context of the Russian market. The research is designed as a multiple case study conducted with a qualitative approach. The empirical data consists of the interviews of the four Finnish case companies operating in the Kaluga region and three local partner companies. The deductive and inductive approaches were employed to conduct the analysis of the data. The propositions for the future study were developed in the conclusive chapters of the research, where we propose that the factor of the economy growth and industrialization matters in terms of subsidiaries’ role dedication, their knowledge creation capabilities, and direction of the knowledge flow within the local environment.

Internationalization of small and medium-sized enterprises and impact of institutions on international entrepreneurship in emerging economies: the case of Russia

The doctoral study presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the institutional environment on the internationalization-based growth strategic choices of small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging economies. In responding to the calls for more research on institutions and international entrepreneurship, this dissertation extends the linkages between the two to the context of emerging economies. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of institutional challenges and their impact on the internationalization of SMEs in emerging economies, particularly in Russia. The research contributes to the adoption of the institution-based view in international entrepreneurship. The dissertation is presented through five research papers. Based on primary and secondary data, the study categorizes the possible sources of institutional influences on internationalization and empirically tests their impact by applying a method triangulation research design. The result of the conducted research is a proposed theoretical model of the institutional impact on the internationalization of SMEs in emerging economies. The model is specifically focused on the growth stage of the entrepreneurial process and considers only its internationalization facet. The research identifies and provides empirical support for the existence of a positive influence of a transparent and supportive regulatory environment, an institutionalized pool of general business knowledge, and collectivistic value orientation on the proclivity of SMEs to internationalize. A level of appreciation of entrepreneurial initiatives in home country and a greater positive institutional gap provide a positive impact on the international performance of SMEs. The research provides contextualized knowledge of the institutional impact on the internationalization of SMEs in Russia. The obtained results present theoretical value in terms of showing how the environmental conditions effect the entrepreneurial internationalization-based growth in emerging economies, providing the methodological insights into the measurement of the institutional effects, and empirically contextualizing the linkage between institutions and internationalization in the Russian business environment. The research also provides value for the business and policy making stakeholders by identifying ways of utilizing the conditions in the external institutional environment.

Culture in business interaction: an individual perspective : empirical studies in Finnish-Russian business relationships

The main objective of this doctoral dissertation is to reach a holistic and indepth understanding of the intercultural interaction within dyadic business relationships through the perspective of individual managers. The empirical setting is dyadic business relationships between Russian and Finnish firms in construction and engineering industries. The motivation for the study mainly arose from: 1) the lack of business marketing literature considering cultural and individual perspectives; 2) the need to find ways to study intercultural issues in business relationships, other than through the application of models derived from the work of Hofstede (1980). The study consists of two parts, an introductory essay containing the research objectives, theoretical foundations, methodological choices, limitations and contributions, and original research articles. The four articles each address a sub-objective: 1) to develop an understanding of intercultural business relationships development, cultural adaptation, and its role in the development of trust (Article 1); 2) to develop an appropriate methodological framework for studying business interaction from a cultural and individual perspective (Article 2); 3) to develop an understanding of the role of culture in individual manager’s sensemaking of interaction events in business relationships (Article 3); and 4) to develop an appropriate theoretical framework for studying interactive intercultural business relationships in international industrial markets (Article 4). The ontological and epistemological foundations are built on the interpretivist/ social constructivist view of reality. Interaction, in this study, is seen as being conducted between individuals, who are the key representative actors of their firms. In turn, culture is regarded both as an independent context existing prior to the individuals’ participation in it, and as knowledge incorporated by the individuals, who use it in sensemaking and interaction across cultures. The methods applied in the articles are: an interpretive qualitative study (Article 1), a literature review and conceptual analysis (Article 2), a structural analysis of the narratives and a metaphor analysis (Article 3), and a literature review and conceptual analysis (Article 4). The main contributions are the following. First, it contributes to business marketing literature by developing the theoretical, conceptual, and methodological underpinning of IMP theories in relation to culture. Second, the thesis contributes to the growing literature on managerial sensemaking in industrial markets by looking at it from a cultural perspective, as well as emphasizing the importance of figurative language in cultural sensemaking.

Search advertising for small Finnish tourism company in Russian Internet – Experimental study: Google AdWords versus Yandex.Direct

Yandex is the dominant search engine in Russia, followed by the world leader Google. This study focuses on the performance differences between the two in search advertising in the context of tourism, by running two identical campaigns and measuring the KPI’s, such as CPA (cost-per-action), on both campaigns. Search engine advertising is a new and fast changing form of advertising, which should be studied frequently in order to keep up with the changes. Research was done as an experimental study in cooperation with a Finnish tourism company and the data is gathered from the clickstream and not from questionnaires, which is recommended method by the literature. The results of the study suggests that Yandex.Direct performed better in the selected niche and that the individual campaign planning for Yandex.Direct and Google AdWords is an important part of the optimization of search advertising in Russia.

The Russian National Innovation System - an International Perspective

Russia inherited a large research and development (R&D) sector from the Soviet times, and has retained a substantial R&D sector today, compared with other emerging economies. However, Russia is falling behind in all indicators measuring innovative output in comparison with most developed countries. Russia’s innovation performance is disappointing, despite the available stock of human capital and overall investment in R&D. The communist legacy still influences the main actors of the innovation system. The federal state is still the most important funding source for R&D. Private companies are not investing in innovative activities, preferring to “import” innovations embedded in foreign technologies. Universities are outsiders in the innovation system, only a few universities carry out research activities. Nowadays, Russia is a resource-depended country. The economy depends on energy and metals for growth. The Russian economy faces the challenge of diversification and should embrace innovation, and shift to a knowledge economy to remain competitive in the long run. Therefore, Russia has to tackle the challenge of developing an efficient innovation system with its huge potential in science expertise and engineering know-how.

Gene Regulation in The Human Immune System. Gene Expression Signatures of Th2 Cell Differentiation, Type 1 Diabetes, and Intrauterine Immune Adaptation

The human immune system is constantly interacting with the surrounding stimuli and microorganisms. However, when directed against self or harmless antigens, these vital defense mechanisms can cause great damage. In addition, the understanding the underlying mechanism of several human diseases caused by aberrant immune cell functions, for instance type 1 diabetes and allergies, remains far from being complete. In this Ph.D. study these questions were addressed using genome-wide transcriptomic analyses. Asthma and allergies are characterized by a hyperactive response of the T helper 2 (Th2) immune cells. In this study, the target genes of the STAT6 transcription factor in naïve human T cells were identified with RNAi for the first time. STAT6 was shown to act as a central activator of the genes expression upon IL-4 signaling, with both direct and indirect effects on Th2 cell transcriptome. The core transcription factor network induced by IL-4 was identified from a kinetic analysis of the transcriptome. Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease influenced by both the genetic susceptibility of an individual and the disease-triggering environmental factors. To improve understanding of the autoimmune processes driving pathogenesis in the prediabetic phase in humans, a unique series of prospective whole-blood RNA samples collected from HLA-susceptible children in the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) study was studied. Changes in different timewindows of the pathogenesis process were identified, and especially the type 1 interferon response was activated early and throughout the preclinical T1D. The hygiene hypothesis states that allergic diseases, and lately also autoimmune diseases, could be prevented by infections and other microbial contacts acquired in early childhood, or even prenatally. To study the effects of the standard of hygiene on the development of neonatal immune system, cord blood samples from children born in Finland (high standard of living), Estonia (rapid economic growth) and Russian Karelia (low standard of living) were compared. Children born in Russian Karelia deviated from Finnish and Estonian children in many aspects of the neonatal immune system, which was developmentally more mature in Karelia, resembling that of older infants. The results of this thesis offer significant new information on the regulatory networks associated with immune-mediated diseases in human. The results will facilitate understanding and further research on the role of the identified target genes and mechanisms driving the allergic inflammation and type 1 diabetes, hopefully leading to a new era of drug development.

Application and development of numerical methods for the modelling of innovative gas cooled fission reactors

Innovative gas cooled reactors, such as the pebble bed reactor (PBR) and the gas cooled fast reactor (GFR) offer higher efficiency and new application areas for nuclear energy. Numerical methods were applied and developed to analyse the specific features of these reactor types with fully three dimensional calculation models. In the first part of this thesis, discrete element method (DEM) was used for a physically realistic modelling of the packing of fuel pebbles in PBR geometries and methods were developed for utilising the DEM results in subsequent reactor physics and thermal-hydraulics calculations. In the second part, the flow and heat transfer for a single gas cooled fuel rod of a GFR were investigated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods. An in-house DEM implementation was validated and used for packing simulations, in which the effect of several parameters on the resulting average packing density was investigated. The restitution coefficient was found out to have the most significant effect. The results can be utilised in further work to obtain a pebble bed with a specific packing density. The packing structures of selected pebble beds were also analysed in detail and local variations in the packing density were observed, which should be taken into account especially in the reactor core thermal-hydraulic analyses. Two open source DEM codes were used to produce stochastic pebble bed configurations to add realism and improve the accuracy of criticality calculations performed with the Monte Carlo reactor physics code Serpent. Russian ASTRA criticality experiments were calculated. Pebble beds corresponding to the experimental specifications within measurement uncertainties were produced in DEM simulations and successfully exported into the subsequent reactor physics analysis. With the developed approach, two typical issues in Monte Carlo reactor physics calculations of pebble bed geometries were avoided. A novel method was developed and implemented as a MATLAB code to calculate porosities in the cells of a CFD calculation mesh constructed over a pebble bed obtained from DEM simulations. The code was further developed to distribute power and temperature data accurately between discrete based reactor physics and continuum based thermal-hydraulics models to enable coupled reactor core calculations. The developed method was also found useful for analysing sphere packings in general. CFD calculations were performed to investigate the pressure losses and heat transfer in three dimensional air cooled smooth and rib roughened rod geometries, housed inside a hexagonal flow channel representing a sub-channel of a single fuel rod of a GFR. The CFD geometry represented the test section of the L-STAR experimental facility at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the calculation results were compared to the corresponding experimental results. Knowledge was gained of the adequacy of various turbulence models and of the modelling requirements and issues related to the specific application. The obtained pressure loss results were in a relatively good agreement with the experimental data. Heat transfer in the smooth rod geometry was somewhat under predicted, which can partly be explained by unaccounted heat losses and uncertainties. In the rib roughened geometry heat transfer was severely under predicted by the used realisable k − epsilon turbulence model. An additional calculation with a v2 − f turbulence model showed significant improvement in the heat transfer results, which is most likely due to the better performance of the model in separated flow problems. Further investigations are suggested before using CFD to make conclusions of the heat transfer performance of rib roughened GFR fuel rod geometries. It is suggested that the viewpoints of numerical modelling are included in the planning of experiments to ease the challenging model construction and simulations and to avoid introducing additional sources of uncertainties. To facilitate the use of advanced calculation approaches, multi-physical aspects in experiments should also be considered and documented in a reasonable detail.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.