Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

A phase I dose-escalation study of the immunocytokine EMD 521873 (Selectikine) in patients with advanced solid tumours.

BACKGROUND: EMD 521873 (Selectikine), an immunocytokine comprising a DNA-targeting antibody, aimed at tumour necrosis, fused with a genetically modified interleukin-2 (IL-2) moiety, was investigated in this first-in-human phase I study. METHODS: Patients had metastatic or locally advanced solid tumours failing previous standard therapy. Selectikine was administered as a 1-hour intravenous infusion on 3 consecutive days, every 3weeks. A subgroup of patients also received 300mg/m(2) cyclophosphamide on day 1 of each cycle. Escalating doses of Selectikine were investigated with the primary objective of determining the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients were treated with Selectikine alone at dose levels from 0.075 to 0.9mg/kg, and nine were treated at doses of 0.45 and 0.6mg/kg in combination with cyclophosphamide. A dose-dependent linear increase of peak serum concentrations and area under curve was found. The dose-limiting toxicity was grade 3 skin rash at the 0.9mg/kg dose-level; the MTD was 0.6mg/kg. Rash and flu-like symptoms were the most frequent side-effects. No severe cardiovascular side-effects (hypotension or vascular leak) were observed. At all dose-levels, transient increases in total lymphocyte, eosinophil and monocyte counts were recorded. No objective tumour responses, but long periods of disease stabilisation were observed. Transient and non-neutralising Selectikine antibodies were detected in 69% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The MTD of Selectikine with or without cyclophosphamide administered under this schedule was 0.6mg/kg. The recommended phase II dose was 0.45-0.6mg/kg. Selectikine had a favourable safety profile and induced biological effects typical for IL-2.

Taxation and Total Government Take from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Following Phase 3 of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 117

Alliance evolutions over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: A case study

Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.

Solid-phase synthesis and NMR studies of modified oligonucleotides forming triplex helix and of oligonucleopeptides mimicking the topoisomerase I-DNA covalent complex

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Institut de Biologia Molecular de Barcelona of the CSIC –state agency – from april until september 2007. Topoisomerase I is an essential nuclear enzyme that modulates the topological status of DNA, facilitating DNA helix unwinding during replication and transcription. We have prepared the oligonucleotide-peptide conjugate Ac-NLeu-Asn-Tyr(p-3’TTCAGAAGC5’)-LeuC-CONH-(CH2)6-OH as model compound for NMR studies of the Topoisomerase I- DNA complex. Special attention was made on the synthetic aspects for the preparation of this challenging compound especially solid supports and protecting groups. The desired peptide was obtained although we did not achieve the amount of the conjugate needed for NMR studies. Most probably the low yield is due to the intrinsic sensitive to hydrolysis of the phosphate bond between oligonucleotide and tyrosine. We have started the synthesis and the structural characterization of oligonucleotides carrying intercalating compounds. At the present state we have obtained model duplex and quadruplex sequences modified with acridine and NMR studies are underway. In addition to this project we have successfully resolved the structure of a fusion peptide derived from hepatitis C virus envelope synthesized by the group of Dr. Haro and we have synthesized and started the characterization of a modified G-quadruplex.

Efficacy of vitamin D3 as add-on therapy in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis receiving subcutaneous interferon β-1a: a Phase II, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

Recent studies have demonstrated the immunomodulatory properties of vitamin D, and vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for the development of MS. The risk of developing MS has, in fact, been associated with rising latitudes, past exposure to sun and serum vitamin D status. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels have also been associated with relapses and disability progression. The identification of risk factors, such as vitamin D deficiency, in MS may provide an opportunity to improve current treatment strategies, through combination therapy with established MS treatments. Accordingly, vitamin D may play a role in MS therapy. Small clinical studies of vitamin D supplementation in patients with MS have reported positive immunomodulatory effects, reduced relapse rates and a reduction in the number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions. However, large randomized clinical trials of vitamin D supplementation in patients with MS are lacking. SOLAR (Supplementation of VigantOL(®) oil versus placebo as Add-on in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis receiving Rebif(®) treatment) is a 96-week, three-arm, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, Phase II trial (NCT01285401). SOLAR will evaluate the efficacy of vitamin D(3) as add-on therapy to subcutaneous interferon beta-1a in patients with RRMS. Recruitment began in February 2011 and is aimed to take place over 1 calendar year due to the potential influence of seasonal differences in 25(OH)D levels.

Experimental chagas' disease in rhesus monkeys. I. Clinical parasitological, hematological and anatomo-pathological studies in the acute and indeterminate phase of the disease

Rhesus monkeys (macaca mulatta) were infected subcutaneously with 1.0 x 10**4 to 1.5 x 10**4 metacyclic trypomastigotes of Trypanosoma cruzi (Colombian strain). Parasitological and immunological parameters were evaluated in these animals for periods of 1 month to over 3 years. a chagona was observed between the 3 rd and the 13th day after infection (a.i) and patent parasitaemia between the 13th and 59th day a.i.. Thereafter, parasites were demonstrated only by haemoculture and/or xenodiagnosis. Circulating specifc IgM and IgC antibodies were observed as early as in the 2nd week a. i. IgG levels persisted until the end of the expriment, but IgM antibodies were detectable nine months a. i. Haematological alterations comprised leucocytosis and lymphocytosis. Eletrocardiographic alterations were minor and transient, similar to those observe in non-lethal human acute Chagas' myocarditis. Myocarditis and myositis, characterized by multiple foci of lympho-histiocyte inflammatory infiltrate, were present in monkeys sacrificed on the 41 th, 70th and 76 th day but not in the animal sacrificed 3 years and 3 months a. i.. The results suggest that Chagas' disease in rhesus monkeys reproduces the acute and indeterminate phases of human Chagas' disease.

A computational and geometric approach to phase resetting curves and surfaces

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model

We analyze and quantify co-movements in real effective exchange rates while considering the regional location of countries. More specifically, using the dynamic hierarchical factor model (Moench et al. (2011)), we decompose exchange rate movements into several latent components; worldwide and two regional factors as well as country-specific elements. Then, we provide evidence that the worldwide common factor is closely related to monetary policies in large advanced countries while regional common factors tend to be captured by those in the rest of the countries in a region. However, a substantial proportion of the variation in the real exchange rates is reported to be country-specific; even in Europe country-specific movements exceed worldwide and regional common factors.

A Simple Characterization of Dynamic Completeness in Continuous Time

This paper investigates dynamic completeness of financial markets in which the underlying risk process is a multi-dimensional Brownian motion and the risky securities dividends geometric Brownian motions. A sufficient condition, that the instantaneous dispersion matrix of the relative dividends is non-degenerate, was established recently in the literature for single-commodity, pure-exchange economies with many heterogenous agents, under the assumption that the intermediate flows of all dividends, utilities, and endowments are analytic functions. For the current setting, a different mathematical argument in which analyticity is not needed shows that a slightly weaker condition suffices for general pricing kernels. That is, dynamic completeness obtains irrespectively of preferences, endowments, and other structural elements (such as whether or not the budget constraints include only pure exchange, whether or not the time horizon is finite with lump-sum dividends available on the terminal date, etc.)

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Automatic front-crawl temporal phase detection using adaptive filtering of inertial signals

This study introduces a novel approach for automatic temporal phase detection and inter-arm coordination estimation in front-crawl swimming using inertial measurement units (IMUs). We examined the validity of our method by comparison against a video-based system. Three waterproofed IMUs (composed of 3D accelerometer, 3D gyroscope) were placed on both forearms and the sacrum of the swimmer. We used two underwater video cameras in side and frontal views as our reference system. Two independent operators performed the video analysis. To test our methodology, seven well-trained swimmers performed three 300 m trials in a 50 m indoor pool. Each trial was in a different coordination mode quantified by the index of coordination. We detected different phases of the arm stroke by employing orientation estimation techniques and a new adaptive change detection algorithm on inertial signals. The difference of 0.2 +/- 3.9% between our estimation and video-based system in assessment of the index of coordination was comparable to experienced operators' difference (1.1 +/- 3.6%). The 95% limits of agreement of the difference between the two systems in estimation of the temporal phases were always less than 7.9% of the cycle duration. The inertial system offers an automatic easy-to-use system with timely feedback for the study of swimming.

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Force-induced globule-coil transition in laminin binding protein and its role for viral-cell membrane fusion.

The specific interactions of the pairs laminin binding protein (LBP)-purified tick-borne encephalitis viral surface protein E and certain recombinant fragments of this protein, as well as West Nile viral surface protein E and certain recombinant fragments of that protein, are studied by combined methods of single-molecule dynamic force spectroscopy (SMDFS), enzyme immunoassay and optical surface waves-based biosensor measurements. The experiments were performed at neutral pH (7.4) and acid pH (5.3) conditions. The data obtained confirm the role of LBP as a cell receptor for two typical viral species of the Flavivirus genus. A comparison of these data with similar data obtained for another cell receptor of this family, namely human αVβ3 integrin, reveals that both these receptors are very important. Studying the specific interaction between the cell receptors in question and specially prepared monoclonal antibodies against them, we could show that both interaction sites involved in the process of virus-cell interaction remain intact at pH 5.3. At the same time, for these acid conditions characteristic for an endosome during flavivirus-cell membrane fusion, SMDFS data reveal the existence of a force-induced (effective already for forces as small as 30-70 pN) sharp globule-coil transition for LBP and LBP-fragments of protein E complexes. We argue that this conformational transformation, being an analog of abrupt first-order phase transition and having similarity with the famous Rayleigh hydrodynamic instability, might be indispensable for the flavivirus-cell membrane fusion process. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.