Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Toward Understanding Astrophysical Phenomena

Fast radio bursts (FRBs), a novel type of radio pulse, whose physics is not yet understood at all. Only a handful of FRBs had been detected when we started this project. Taking account of the scant observations, we put physical constraints on FRBs. We excluded proposals of a galactic origin for their extraordinarily high dispersion measures (DM), in particular stellar coronas and HII regions. Therefore our work supports an extragalactic origin for FRBs. We show that the resolved scattering tail of FRB 110220 is unlikely to be due to propagation through the intergalactic plasma. Instead the scattering is probably caused by the interstellar medium in the FRB's host galaxy, and indicates that this burst sits in the central region of that galaxy. Pulse durations of order $\ms$ constrain source sizes of FRBs implying enormous brightness temperatures and thus coherent emission. Electric fields near FRBs at cosmological distances would be so strong that they could accelerate free electrons from rest to relativistic energies in a single wave period. When we worked on FRBs, it was unclear whether they were genuine astronomical signals as distinct from `perytons', clearly terrestrial radio bursts, sharing some common properties with FRBs. Recently, in April 2015, astronomers discovered that perytons were emitted by microwave ovens. Radio chirps similar to FRBs were emitted when their doors opened while they were still heating. Evidence for the astronomical nature of FRBs has strengthened since our paper was published. Some bursts have been found to show linear and circular polarizations and Faraday rotation of the linear polarization has also been detected. I hope to resume working on FRBs in the near future. But after we completed our FRB paper, I decided to pause this project because of the lack of observational constraints.

The pulsar triple system, J0733+1715, has its orbital parameters fitted to high accuracy owing to the precise timing of the central $\ms$ pulsar. The two orbits are highly hierarchical, namely $P_{\mathrm{orb,1}}\ll P_{\mathrm{orb,2}}$, where 1 and 2 label the inner and outer white dwarf (WD) companions respectively. Moreover, their orbital planes almost coincide, providing a unique opportunity to study secular interaction associated purely with eccentricity beyond the solar system. Secular interaction only involves effect averaged over many orbits. Thus each companion can be represented by an elliptical wire with its mass distributed inversely proportional to its local orbital speed. Generally there exists a mutual torque, which vanishes only when their apsidal lines are parallel or anti-parallel. To maintain either mode, the eccentricity ratio, $e_1/e_2$, must be of the proper value, so that both apsidal lines precess together. For J0733+1715, $e_1\ll e_2$ for the parallel mode, while $e_1\gg e_2$ for the anti-parallel one. We show that the former precesses $\sim 10$ times slower than the latter. Currently the system is dominated by the parallel mode. Although only a little anti-parallel mode survives, both eccentricities especially $e_1$ oscillate on $\sim 10^3\yr$ timescale. Detectable changes would occur within $\sim 1\yr$. We demonstrate that the anti-parallel mode gets damped $\sim 10^4$ times faster than its parallel brother by any dissipative process diminishing $e_1$. If it is the tidal damping in the inner WD, we proceed to estimate its tidal quantity parameter ($Q$) to be $\sim 10^6$, which was poorly constrained by observations. However, tidal damping may also happen during the preceding low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) phase or hydrogen thermal nuclear flashes. But, in both cases, the inner companion fills its Roche lobe and probably suffers mass/angular momentum loss, which might cause $e_1$ to grow rather than decay.

Several pairs of solar system satellites occupy mean motion resonances (MMRs). We divide these into two groups according to their proximity to exact resonance. Proximity is measured by the existence of a separatrix in phase space. MMRs between Io-Europa, Europa-Ganymede and Enceladus-Dione are too distant from exact resonance for a separatrix to appear. A separatrix is present only in the phase spaces of the Mimas-Tethys and Titan-Hyperion MMRs and their resonant arguments are the only ones to exhibit substantial librations. When a separatrix is present, tidal damping of eccentricity or inclination excites overstable librations that can lead to passage through resonance on the damping timescale. However, after investigation, we conclude that the librations in the Mimas-Tethys and Titan-Hyperion MMRs are fossils and do not result from overstability.

Rubble piles are common in the solar system. Monolithic elements touch their neighbors in small localized areas. Voids occupy a significant fraction of the volume. In a fluid-free environment, heat cannot conduct through voids; only radiation can transfer energy across them. We model the effective thermal conductivity of a rubble pile and show that it is proportional the square root of the pressure, $P$, for $P\leq \epsy^3\mu$ where $\epsy$ is the material's yield strain and $\mu$ its shear modulus. Our model provides an excellent fit to the depth dependence of the thermal conductivity in the top $140\,\mathrm{cm}$ of the lunar regolith. It also offers an explanation for the low thermal inertias of rocky asteroids and icy satellites. Lastly, we discuss how rubble piles slow down the cooling of small bodies such as asteroids.

Electromagnetic (EM) follow-up observations of gravitational wave (GW) events will help shed light on the nature of the sources, and more can be learned if the EM follow-ups can start as soon as the GW event becomes observable. In this paper, we propose a computationally efficient time-domain algorithm capable of detecting gravitational waves (GWs) from coalescing binaries of compact objects with nearly zero time delay. In case when the signal is strong enough, our algorithm also has the flexibility to trigger EM observation {\it before} the merger. The key to the efficiency of our algorithm arises from the use of chains of so-called Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filters, which filter time-series data recursively. Computational cost is further reduced by a template interpolation technique that requires filtering to be done only for a much coarser template bank than otherwise required to sufficiently recover optimal signal-to-noise ratio. Towards future detectors with sensitivity extending to lower frequencies, our algorithm's computational cost is shown to increase rather insignificantly compared to the conventional time-domain correlation method. Moreover, at latencies of less than hundreds to thousands of seconds, this method is expected to be computationally more efficient than the straightforward frequency-domain method.

Influence of birefringence dispersion on distributed measurement of polarization coupling in birefringent fibers

A white light interferometer is developed to measure the distributed polarization coupling in high-birefringence polarization-maintaining fibers (PMFs). Usually the birefringence dispersion between two orthogonal eigenmodes of PMFs is neglected in such systems. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that the birefringence dispersion becomes a nonnegligible factor in a long-fiber test. Significant broadening of interferograms and loss of longitudinal coherence are observed. The spatial resolution and measurement sensitivity of the system decrease correspondingly. Optimum spectrum width selection is presented for better spatial resolution and measurement range. c 2007 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

1.55-mu m InGaAs/InGaAlAs MQW vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers with InGaAlAs/InP distributed Bragg reflectors

High-performance InGaAs/InGaAlAs multiple-quantum-well vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs) with lnGaAlAs/InP distributed Bragg reflectors are proposed for operation at the wavelength of 1.55 mum. The lasers have good heat diffusion characteristic, large index contrast in DBRs, and weak temperature sensitivity. They could be fabricated either by metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) or by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) growth. The laser light-current characteristics indicate that a suitable reflectivity of the DBR on the light output side in a laser makes its output power increase greatly and its lasing threshold current reduce significantly, and that a small VCSEL could output the power around its maximum for the output mirror at the reflectivity varying in a broader range than a large VCSEL does. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neutron-neutron scattering parameters from the ^3He(d,t)2p and ^3H(d,^3He)2n reactions

The energy spectra of tritons and Helium-3 nuclei from the reactions ³He(d,t)2p, ³H(d,³He)2n, ³He(d,³He)pn, and ³H(d,t)pn were measured between 6° and 20° at a bombarding energy of 10.9 MeV. An upper limit of 5 μb/sr. was obtained for producing a bound di-neutron at 6° and 7.5°. The ³He(d,t)2p and ³H(d,³He)2n data, together with previous measurements at higher energies, have been used to investigate whether one can unambiguously extract information on the two-nucleon system from these three-body final state reactions. As an aid to these theoretical investigations, Born approximation calculations were made employing realistic nucleon-nucleon potentials and an antisymmetrized final state wave function for the five-particle system. These calculations reproduce many of the features observed in the experimental data and indicate that the role of exchange processes cannot be ignored. The results show that previous attempts to obtain information on the neutron-neutron scattering length from the ³H(d,³He)2n reaction may have seriously overestimated the precision that could be attained.

Effect of microcosmic optical parameters of dopants on the signal-to-noise ratio in doubly doped LiNbO3 crystals

We propose a united theory that describes the two-center recording system by taking scattering noise into account. The temporal evolution of the signal-to-noise ratio in doubly doped photorefractive crystals is described based on jointly solving material equations and coupled-wave equations with the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. Roles of microcosmic optical parameters of dopants on the signal-to-noise ratio are discussed in detail. The theoretical results can confirm and predict experimental results. (c) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Growth parameters for Lates niloticus (L.), Bagrus docmak (Forsskal), Oreochromis niloticus (L.), Clarias gariepinus (Burchell) and Synodontis species derived from tag returns

In a tagging experiment carried out in the Kenyan waters of Lake Victoria, an annual growth increment of 29 cm yr was obtained for Lates niloticus (L.). Growth parameters obtained using the von Bertalanffy model on the growth curve fitted by eye were L (inf.) = 122 cm yr and k = 0.26 yr. Data for other species tagged were inadequate to obtain meaningful results.

Distributed measurement of birefringence dispersion in polarization-maintaining fibers

A new method to measure the birefringence dispersion in high-birefringence polarization-maintaining fibers is presented using white-light interferometry. By analyzing broadening of low-coherence interferograms obtained in a scanning Michelson interferometer, the birefringence dispersion and its variation along different fiber sections are acquired with high sensitivity and accuracy. Birefringence dispersions of two PANDA fibers at their operation wavelength are measured to be 0.011 ps/(km nm) and 0.018 ps/(km nm), respectively. Distributed measurement capability of the method is also verified experimentally. (c) 2006 Optical Society of America.

The design and development of the Windermere Profiler. An instrument for measuring how various environmental parameters vary with depth in lakes, reservoirs and rivers

A review article detailing the background, development and functionality of the Windermere Profiler, a multi parameter environmental monitoring instrument for use in lakes, reservoirs and rivers. The article explains the requirement for regular data collection by the Freshwater Biological Association at Windermere. The article covers the requirements of a profiling instrument, the design considerations, the electronic circuitry, the computer program, the operation of the computer software, the profiler in use and further developments to the design. A number of figures and images accompany the article.

Influence of birefringence dispersion on distributed measurement of polarization coupling in birefringent fibers

A white light interferometer is developed to measure the distributed polarization coupling in high-birefringence polarization-maintaining fibers (PMFs). Usually the birefringence dispersion between two orthogonal eigenmodes of PMFs is neglected in such systems. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that the birefringence dispersion becomes a nonnegligible factor in a long-fiber test. Significant broadening of interferograms and loss of longitudinal coherence are observed. The spatial resolution and measurement sensitivity of the system decrease correspondingly. Optimum spectrum width selection is presented for better spatial resolution and measurement range. c 2007 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Distributed Optimal Control of Cyber-Physical Systems: Controller Synthesis, Architecture Design and System Identification

The centralized paradigm of a single controller and a single plant upon which modern control theory is built is no longer applicable to modern cyber-physical systems of interest, such as the power-grid, software defined networks or automated highways systems, as these are all large-scale and spatially distributed. Both the scale and the distributed nature of these systems has motivated the decentralization of control schemes into local sub-controllers that measure, exchange and act on locally available subsets of the globally available system information. This decentralization of control logic leads to different decision makers acting on asymmetric information sets, introduces the need for coordination between them, and perhaps not surprisingly makes the resulting optimal control problem much harder to solve. In fact, shortly after such questions were posed, it was realized that seemingly simple decentralized optimal control problems are computationally intractable to solve, with the Wistenhausen counterexample being a famous instance of this phenomenon. Spurred on by this perhaps discouraging result, a concerted 40 year effort to identify tractable classes of distributed optimal control problems culminated in the notion of quadratic invariance, which loosely states that if sub-controllers can exchange information with each other at least as quickly as the effect of their control actions propagates through the plant, then the resulting distributed optimal control problem admits a convex formulation.

The identification of quadratic invariance as an appropriate means of "convexifying" distributed optimal control problems led to a renewed enthusiasm in the controller synthesis community, resulting in a rich set of results over the past decade. The contributions of this thesis can be seen as being a part of this broader family of results, with a particular focus on closing the gap between theory and practice by relaxing or removing assumptions made in the traditional distributed optimal control framework. Our contributions are to the foundational theory of distributed optimal control, and fall under three broad categories, namely controller synthesis, architecture design and system identification.

We begin by providing two novel controller synthesis algorithms. The first is a solution to the distributed H-infinity optimal control problem subject to delay constraints, and provides the only known exact characterization of delay-constrained distributed controllers satisfying an H-infinity norm bound. The second is an explicit dynamic programming solution to a two player LQR state-feedback problem with varying delays. Accommodating varying delays represents an important first step in combining distributed optimal control theory with the area of Networked Control Systems that considers lossy channels in the feedback loop. Our next set of results are concerned with controller architecture design. When designing controllers for large-scale systems, the architectural aspects of the controller such as the placement of actuators, sensors, and the communication links between them can no longer be taken as given -- indeed the task of designing this architecture is now as important as the design of the control laws themselves. To address this task, we formulate the Regularization for Design (RFD) framework, which is a unifying computationally tractable approach, based on the model matching framework and atomic norm regularization, for the simultaneous co-design of a structured optimal controller and the architecture needed to implement it. Our final result is a contribution to distributed system identification. Traditional system identification techniques such as subspace identification are not computationally scalable, and destroy rather than leverage any a priori information about the system's interconnection structure. We argue that in the context of system identification, an essential building block of any scalable algorithm is the ability to estimate local dynamics within a large interconnected system. To that end we propose a promising heuristic for identifying the dynamics of a subsystem that is still connected to a large system. We exploit the fact that the transfer function of the local dynamics is low-order, but full-rank, while the transfer function of the global dynamics is high-order, but low-rank, to formulate this separation task as a nuclear norm minimization problem. Finally, we conclude with a brief discussion of future research directions, with a particular emphasis on how to incorporate the results of this thesis, and those of optimal control theory in general, into a broader theory of dynamics, control and optimization in layered architectures.

Estimation of catalyst activity profiles and deactivation parameters from reactor operating data with applications to naphtha reforming

Techniques are developed for estimating activity profiles in fixed bed reactors and catalyst deactivation parameters from operating reactor data. These techniques are applicable, in general, to most industrial catalytic processes. The catalytic reforming of naphthas is taken as a broad example to illustrate the estimation schemes and to signify the physical meaning of the kinetic parameters of the estimation equations. The work is described in two parts. Part I deals with the modeling of kinetic rate expressions and the derivation of the working equations for estimation. Part II concentrates on developing various estimation techniques.

Part I: The reactions used to describe naphtha reforming are dehydrogenation and dehydroisomerization of cycloparaffins; isomerization, dehydrocyclization and hydrocracking of paraffins; and the catalyst deactivation reactions, namely coking on alumina sites and sintering of platinum crystallites. The rate expressions for the above reactions are formulated, and the effects of transport limitations on the overall reaction rates are discussed in the appendices. Moreover, various types of interaction between the metallic and acidic active centers of reforming catalysts are discussed as characterizing the different types of reforming reactions.

Part II: In catalytic reactor operation, the activity distribution along the reactor determines the kinetics of the main reaction and is needed for predicting the effect of changes in the feed state and the operating conditions on the reactor output. In the case of a monofunctional catalyst and of bifunctional catalysts in limiting conditions, the cumulative activity is sufficient for predicting steady reactor output. The estimation of this cumulative activity can be carried out easily from measurements at the reactor exit. For a general bifunctional catalytic system, the detailed activity distribution is needed for describing the reactor operation, and some approximation must be made to obtain practicable estimation schemes. This is accomplished by parametrization techniques using measurements at a few points along the reactor. Such parametrization techniques are illustrated numerically with a simplified model of naphtha reforming.

To determine long term catalyst utilization and regeneration policies, it is necessary to estimate catalyst deactivation parameters from the the current operating data. For a first order deactivation model with a monofunctional catalyst or with a bifunctional catalyst in special limiting circumstances, analytical techniques are presented to transform the partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations which admit more feasible estimation schemes. Numerical examples include the catalytic oxidation of butene to butadiene and a simplified model of naphtha reforming. For a general bifunctional system or in the case of a monofunctional catalyst subject to general power law deactivation, the estimation can only be accomplished approximately. The basic feature of an appropriate estimation scheme involves approximating the activity profile by certain polynomials and then estimating the deactivation parameters from the integrated form of the deactivation equation by regression techniques. Different bifunctional systems must be treated by different estimation algorithms, which are illustrated by several cases of naphtha reforming with different feed or catalyst composition.

NEW METHODOLOGY FOR FEEDER RECONFIGURATION IN DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS WITH DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES

This doctoral Thesis defines and develops a new methodology for feeder reconfiguration in distribution networks with Distributed Energy Resources (DER). The proposed methodology is based on metaheuristic Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithms. The methodology is called Item Oriented Ant System (IOAS) and the doctoral Thesis also defines three variations of the original methodology, Item Oriented Ant Colony System (IOACS), Item Oriented Max-min Ant System (IOMMAS) y Item Oriented Max-min Ant Colony System (IOACS). All methodologies pursue a twofold objective, to minimize the power losses and maximize DER penetration in distribution networks. The aim of the variations is to find the algorithm that adapts better to the present optimization problem, solving it most efficiently. The main feature of the methodology lies in the fact that the heuristic information and the exploitation information (pheromone) are attached to the item not to the path. Besides, the doctoral Thesis proposes to use feeder reconfiguration in order to increase the distribution network capacity of accepting a major degree of DER. The proposed methodology and its three variations have been tested and verified in two distribution networks well documented in the existing bibliography. These networks have been modeled and used to test all proposed methodologies for different scenarios with various DER penetration degrees.