ESTRATÉGIA NACIONAL DE COMUNICAÇÃO PARA A MUDANÇA DE COMPORTAMENTO EM SAÚDE REPRODUTIVA

A mortalidade infantil, apesar de diminuição progressiva (130/1000 em 1970 e 23,1/1000 em 2000), necessita de atenção constante. • A mortalidade perinatal, que também tem diminuído de forma significativa, (38,4/1000 em 1995 e 29,2/1000 em 2000) necessita ainda de mais investimentos, dado que as afecções perinatais foram a primeira causa de morte dos menores de um ano em 1999 e em 2000. • A taxa de menores de um ano completamente vacinados verificados nos inquéritos nacionais de cobertura vacinal de 1999 e de 2002 realçam uma tendência para aumento (59,1% e 74,9%) respectivamente, sendo as taxas menores nos concelhos rurais está ainda aquém da meta preconizada de 90% de cobertura, no mínimo. • A taxa de mortalidade materna tem oscilado nos últimos anos (55,4 /100.000 em 1995, 27,5/100.000 em 1997 e 76/100.000 em 2000), mostrando igualmente a necessidade de priorizar acções tendentes ao reforço dos cuidados de saúde materna. • Verifica-se uma tendência para diminuição da procura da consulta pré-natal (83% de cobertura pela primeira consulta de grávidas em 2000 e 78,7% em 2001), sendo também mais evidente a discrepância entre o meio urbano e o rural. • Os partos domiciliários foram 45 % do total de partos em 1998, segundo o IDSR, sendo 63,1% dos mesmos nos concelhos rurais, sobretudo de Santiago, Santo Antão e Fogo e só 16,7% nos concelhos urbanos.

La Inserción Internacional de África: Nuevas Características de una vieja Dependencia Basada en los Recursos Naturales

La actual realidad económica de África sigue atendiendo a un esquema centro-periferia. No obstante, hay nuevos elementos como la reciente llegada de inversión de países en desarrollo y los intereses renovados de las potencias por alimentos y minerales. Todo ello parece indicar que África toma cada vez más partida del proceso de globalización, pero desde una clara marginalidad como suministrador de recursos naturales para terceras economías, ya sean las viejas potencias coloniales (Europa) o los nuevos gigantes económicos, como China o Brasil. Este artículo tendrá por objeto realizar un análisis de la evolución de la magnitud y la competitividad de las exportaciones africanas. Con ello se identificarán algunas de las características de su (marginal) inserción en la economía mundial. Para ello se analiza el patrón comercial de África con Europa, Asia y América Latina utilizando como referente de comparación el comercio que se realiza intraregionalmente. Se utilizará la metodología denominada Competitive Analysis of Nations, elaborada por el Banco Mundial y la CEPAL.

Geology and correlation of the Mersin mélanges, southern Turkey

Our paper aims to give a thorough description of the infra-ophiolitic melanges associated with the Mersin ophiolite. We propose new regional correlations of the Mersin melanges with other melange-like units or similar series, located both in southern Turkey and adjacent regions. The palaeotectonic implications of the correlations are also discussed. The main results may be summarized as follows: the infra-ophiolitic melange is subdivided into two units, the Upper Cretaceous Sorgun ophiolitic melange and the Ladinian-Carnian Hacialani melange. The Mersin melanges, together with the Antalya and Mamonia domains, are represented by a series of exotic units now found south of the main Taurus range, and are characteristic of the South-Taurides Exotic Units. These melanges clearly show the mixed origin of the different blocks and broken formations. Some components have a Palaeotethyan origin and are characterized by Pennsylvanian and Lower to Middle Permian pelagic and slope deposits. These Palaeotethyan remnants, found exclusively in the Hacialani melange, were reworked as major olistostromes in the Neotethys basin during the Eo-Cimmerian orogenic event. Neotethyan elements are represented by Middle Triassic seamounts and by broken formations containing typical Neotethyan conodont faunas such as Metapolygnathus mersinensis Kozur & Moix and M. primitius s. s., both present in the latest Carnian interval, as well as the occurrence of the middle Norian Epigondolella praeslovakensis Kozur, Masset & Moix. Other elements are clearly derived from the former north Anatolian passive margin and are represented by Huglu-type series including the Upper Triassic syn-rift volcanic event. These sequences attributed to the Huglu-Pindos back-arc ocean were displaced southward during the Late Cretaceous obduction event. The Tauric elements are represented by Eo-Cimmerian flysch-like and molasse sequences intercalated in Neotethyan series. Additionally, some shallow-water blocks might be derived from the Bolkardag para-autochthonous and the Taurus-Beydaglari marginal sequences.

¿Es posible reducir el gasto sanitario a través del subsidio a los seguros sanitarios privados? La doble cobertura sanitaria en Catalunya. Estimación de patrones de utilización de servicios sanitarios y simulación de costes asociados a la asistencia

The objective of this study consists in quantifying in money terms thepotential reduction in usage of public health care outlets associatedto the tenure of double (public plus private) insurance. In order to address the problem, a probabilistic model for visits to physicians is specified and estimated using data from the Catalonian Health Survey. Also, a model for the marginal cost of a visit to a physician is estimated using data from a representative sample of fee-for-service payments from a major insurer. Combining the estimates from the two models it is possible to quantify in money terms the cost/savings of alternative policies which bear an impact on the adoption of double insurance by the population. The results suggest that the private sector absorbs an important volumeof demand which would be re-directed to the public sector if consumerscease to hold double insurance.

A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock

In this work we study older workers (50 64) labor force transitions after a health/disability shock. We find that the probability of keeping working decreases with both age and severity of the shock. Moreover, we find strong interactions between age and severity in the 50 64 age range and none in the 30 49 age range. Regarding demographics we find that being female and married reduce the probability of keeping work. On the contrary, being main breadwinner, education and skill levels increase it. Interestingly, the effect of some demographics changes its sign when we look at transitions from inactivity to work. This is the case of being married or having a working spouse. Undoubtedly, leisure complementarities should play a role in the latter case. Since the data we use contains a very detailed information on disabilities, we are able to evaluate the marginal effect of each type of disability either in the probability of keeping working or in returning back to work. Some of these results may have strong policy implications.

Country portfolios and the Solow-model

This paper shows that an open economy Solow model provides a good description of international investment positions in industrialized countries. More than half of the variation of net foreign assets in the 1990's can be attributed to cross country differences in the savings rate, population and productivity growth. Furthermore, these factors seem to be an important channel through which output and wealth affect international investment positions. We interpret this funding as evidence that decreasing returns are an important source of international capital movements. The savings rate (andpopulation growth) influence the composition of country portfolios through their downward (upward) pressure on the marginal productivity of capital.

Subsampling the mean of heavy-tailed dependent observations

We establish the validity of subsampling confidence intervals for themean of a dependent series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions.Using point process theory, we study both linear and nonlinear GARCH-liketime series models. We propose a data-dependent method for the optimalblock size selection and investigate its performance by means of asimulation study.

Beyond Smith's rule: An optimal dynamic index, rule for single machine stochastic scheduling with convex holding costs

Most research on single machine scheduling has assumedthe linearity of job holding costs, which is arguablynot appropriate in some applications. This motivates ourstudy of a model for scheduling $n$ classes of stochasticjobs on a single machine, with the objective of minimizingthe total expected holding cost (discounted or undiscounted). We allow general holding cost rates that are separable,nondecreasing and convex on the number of jobs in eachclass. We formulate the problem as a linear program overa certain greedoid polytope, and establish that it issolved optimally by a dynamic (priority) index rule,whichextends the classical Smith's rule (1956) for the linearcase. Unlike Smith's indices, defined for each class, ournew indices are defined for each extended class, consistingof a class and a number of jobs in that class, and yieldan optimal dynamic index rule: work at each time on a jobwhose current extended class has larger index. We furthershow that the indices possess a decomposition property,as they are computed separately for each class, andinterpret them in economic terms as marginal expected cost rate reductions per unit of expected processing time.We establish the results by deploying a methodology recentlyintroduced by us [J. Niño-Mora (1999). "Restless bandits,partial conservation laws, and indexability. "Forthcomingin Advances in Applied Probability Vol. 33 No. 1, 2001],based on the satisfaction by performance measures of partialconservation laws (PCL) (which extend the generalizedconservation laws of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996)):PCL provide a polyhedral framework for establishing theoptimality of index policies with special structure inscheduling problems under admissible objectives, which weapply to the model of concern.

Endogenous spillovers, increased competition and re-organization waves

We consider an entrepreneur that is the sole producer of a costreducing skill, but the entrepreneur that hires a team to usethe skill cannot prevent collusive trade for the innovation related knowledge between employees and competitors. We showthat there are two types of diffusion avoiding strategies forthe entrepreneur to preempt collusive communication i) settingup a large productive capacity (the traditional firm) and ii)keeping a small team (the lean firm). The traditional firm ischaracterized by its many "marginal" employees that work shortdays, receive flat wages and are incompletely informed about the innovation. The lean firm is small in number of employees,engages in complete information sharing among members, that are paid with stock option schemes. We find that the lean firm is superior to the traditional firm when technological entry costsare low and when the sector is immature.

Stare decisis: Rhetoric and substance

Stare decisis allows common law to develop gradually and incrementally. We show howjudge-made law can steadily evolve and tend to increase efficiency even in the absence ofnew information. Judges' opinions must argue that their decisions are consistent withprecedent: this is the more costly, the greater the innovation they are introducing. As aresult, each judge effects a cautious marginal change in the law. Alternative models inwhich precedents are either strictly obeyed or totally discarded would instead predictabrupt large swings in legal rules. Thus we find that the evolution of case law isgrounded not in binary logic fixing judges' constraints, but in costly rhetoric shapingtheir incentives. We apply this finding to an assessment of the role of analogicalreasoning in shaping the joint development of different areas of law.

Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890-1920)

The subject "Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890--1920)" should evoke several names and debates in the reader's mind. For a long time, Western scholars have been aware that the Russian economists Tugan-Baranovsky and Bortkiewicz were active participants to the Marxian transformation problem, that the mathematical models of Dmitriev prefigured forthcoming neoricardian based models, and that many Russian economists were either supporting the Marxian labour theory of value or being revisionists. Moreover, these ideas were preparing the ground for Soviet planning. Russian scholars additionally knew that this period was the time of introduction of marginalism in Russia, and that, during this period, economists were active in thinking the relation of ethics with economic theory. All these issues are well covered in the existing literature. But there is a big gap that this dissertation intends to fill. The existing literature handles these pieces separately, although they are part of a single, more general, history. All these issues (the labour theory of value, marginalism, the Marxian transformation problem, planning, ethics, mathematical economics) were part of what this dissertation calls here "The Russian synthesis". The Russian synthesis (in the singular) designates here all the attempts at synthesis between classical political economy and marginalism, between labour theory of value and marginal utility, and between value and prices that occurred in Russian economic thought between 1890 and 1920, and that embraces the whole set of issues evoked above. This dissertation has the ambition of being the first comprehensive history of that Russian synthesis. In this, this contribution is unique. It has always surprised the author of the present dissertation that such a book has not yet been written. Several good reasons, both in terms of scarce availability of sources and of ideological restrictions, may accounted for a reasonable delay of several decades. But it is now urgent to remedy the situation before the protagonists of the Russian synthesis are definitely classified under the wrong labels in the pantheon of economic thought. To accomplish this task, it has seldom be sufficient to gather together the various existing studies on aspects of this story. It as been necessary to return to the primary sources in the Russian language. The most important part of the primary literature has never been translated, and in the last years only some of them have been republished in Russian. Therefore, most translations from the Russian have been made by the author of the present dissertation. The secondary literature has been surveyed in the languages that are familiar (Russian, English and French) or almost familiar (German) to the present author, and which are hopefully the most pertinent to the present investigation. Besides, and in order to increase the acquaintance with the text, which was the objective of all this, some archival sources were used. The analysis consists of careful chronological studies of the authors' writings and their evolution in their historical and intellectual context. As a consequence, the dissertation brings new authors to the foreground - Shaposhnikov and Yurovsky - who were traditionally confined to the substitutes' bench, because they only superficially touched the domains quoted above. In the Russian synthesis however, they played an important part of the story. As a side effect, some authors that used to play in the foreground - Dmitriev and Bortkiewicz - are relegated to the background, but are not forgotten. Besides, the dissertation refreshes the views on authors already known, such as Ziber and, especially, Tugan-Baranovsky. The ultimate objective of this dissertation is to change the opinion that one could have on "value and prices in Russian economic thought", by setting the Russian synthesis at the centre of the debates.

Maintaining dendritic cell viability in culture.

When mouse dendritic cells (DCs) are isolated from tissues, purified and placed in a nutritive culture they die more rapidly than would be expected from their normal turnover in vivo. This can distort culture assays of DC function. We therefore tested several approaches to prolonging DC survival in culture. Of several cytokines tested granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor was most effective at preserving the viability of conventional DCs (cDCs) but was ineffective for plasmacytoid DCs (pDCs). Surprisingly, Fms-like tyrosine kinase 3 ligand, crucial for DC development, produced only a marginal improvement in DC survival in culture, and interleukin-3, reported to prevent apoptosis of human pDCs, produced only a minor improvement in survival of mouse DCs. Genetic manipulation of cell death pathways was also tested, to avoid activation effects exerted by cytokine signalling. The isolation of DCs from mice overexpressing Bcl-2 was especially effective in maintaining pDC viability but gave a lesser improvement in cDC viability. DCs isolated from Bim(-/-)Noxa(-/-) mice also showed improved culture survival, but in this case with pDCs showing the least improvement.

Dynamic price competition with fixed capacities

Many revenue management (RM) industries are characterized by (a) fixed capacities in theshort term (e.g., hotel rooms, seats on an airline flight), (b) homogeneous products (e.g., twoairline flights between the same cities at similar times), and (c) customer purchasing decisionslargely influenced by price. Competition in these industries is also very high even with just twoor three direct competitors in a market. However, RM competition is not well understood andpractically all known implementations of RM software and most published models of RM donot explicitly model competition. For this reason, there has been considerable recent interestand research activity to understand RM competition. In this paper we study price competitionfor an oligopoly in a dynamic setting, where each of the sellers has a fixed number of unitsavailable for sale over a fixed number of periods. Demand is stochastic, and depending on howit evolves, sellers may change their prices at any time. This reflects the fact that firms constantly,and almost costlessly, change their prices (alternately, allocations at a price in quantity-basedRM), reacting either to updates in their estimates of market demand, competitor prices, orinventory levels. We first prove existence of a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium for a duopoly.In equilibrium, in each state sellers engage in Bertrand competition, so that the seller withthe lowest reservation value ends up selling a unit at a price that is equal to the equilibriumreservation value of the competitor. This structure hence extends the marginal-value conceptof bid-price control, used in many RM implementations, to a competitive model. In addition,we show that the seller with the lowest capacity sells all its units first. Furthermore, we extendthe results transparently to n firms and perform a number of numerical comparative staticsexploiting the uniqueness of the subgame-perfect equilibrium.

Efeitos da Interação Conjunta da Volatilidade das Taxas de Juro e da Dívida nas Decisões de Investimento: Evidências nas Empresas Portuguesas do Setor Industrial

Focalizando, essencialmente, sobre os efeitos da interação. conjunta da volatildade das taxas de juro e da dívida nas decisões de investimento das empresas portuguesas, listadas na Euronext Lisbon, e considerando a composição de dados em séries temporais empilhadas, extraímos 291 observações completas, durante o período de 1999 a 2009. Os resultados encontrados mostram que uma maior exposição ao risco da dívida das empresas portuguesas depende do nível de endividamento. As empresas moderadamente endividadas e amantes do risco não diminuem os seus investimentos, quando se verifica uma maior volatilidade do risco da dívida. Por outro lado, as empresas sobreendividadas e inimigas do risco respondem perante a uma maior volatilidade do risco da dívida, diminuindo os seus investimentos. Além disso, descobrimos que as empresas portuguesas reduzem os seus investimentos face a uma maior volatilidade das taxas de juro. Entretanto, fomos surpreendidos que as empresas portuguesas não reduzem os seus investimentos, face a um efeito marginal das taxas de juro. Este resultado sugere que, o benefício fiscal resultante do efeito de reavaliação da dívida (Lensink et al., 2001), é mais relevante para as empresas sobreendividadas, uma vez que podem atenuar o efeito dos encargos financeiros (Bo e Sterken, 2002).

Health care provider choice in the case of patient-initiated contacts. An extended version of discrete choice of model demand

This paper analyzes the nature of health care provider choice inthe case of patient-initiated contacts, with special reference toa National Health Service setting, where monetary prices are zeroand general practitioners act as gatekeepers to publicly financedspecialized care. We focus our attention on the factors that mayexplain the continuously increasing use of hospital emergencyvisits as opposed to other provider alternatives. An extendedversion of a discrete choice model of demand for patient-initiatedcontacts is presented, allowing for individual and town residencesize differences in perceived quality (preferences) betweenalternative providers and including travel and waiting time asnon-monetary costs. Results of a nested multinomial logit model ofprovider choice are presented. Individual choice betweenalternatives considers, in a repeated nested structure, self-care,primary care, hospital and clinic emergency services. Welfareimplications and income effects are analyzed by computingcompensating variations, and by simulating the effects of userfees by levels of income. Results indicate that compensatingvariation per visit is higher than the direct marginal cost ofemergency visits, and consequently, emergency visits do not appearas an inefficient alternative even for non-urgent conditions.