A global view of cross-border migration

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitativemulti-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data.Our framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances,and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels ofmigration to a no-migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that receiveda lot of migration -such as Canada or Australia- are better o due to greater product varietyavailable in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run the impact of migrationon average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled nativestend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries withlarge emigration flows -such as Jamaica or El Salvador- are also better off due to migration,but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration issubstantial, at about 5 to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries withlarge incoming remittances. Our results are robust to accounting for imperfect transferabilityof skills, selection into migration, and imperfect substitution between natives and immigrants.

Improved Employment Data for Transportation Planning, 1998

Transportation planners typically use census data or small sample surveys to help estimate work trips in metropolitan areas. Census data are cheap to use but are only collected every 10 years and may not provide the answers that a planner is seeking. On the other hand, small sample survey data are fresh but can be very expensive to collect. This project involved using database and geographic information systems (GIS) technology to relate several administrative data sources that are not usually employed by transportation planners. These data sources included data collected by state agencies for unemployment insurance purposes and for drivers licensing. Together, these data sources could allow better estimates of the following information for a metropolitan area or planning region: · Locations of employers (work sites); · Locations of employees; · Travel flows between employees’ homes and their work locations. The required new employment database was created for a large, multi-county region in central Iowa. When evaluated against the estimates of a metropolitan planning organization, the new database did allow for a one to four percent improvement in estimates over the traditional approach. While this does not sound highly significant, the approach using improved employment data to synthesize home-based work (HBW) trip tables was particularly beneficial in improving estimated traffic on high-capacity routes. These are precisely the routes that transportation planners are most interested in modeling accurately. Therefore, the concept of using improved employment data for transportation planning was considered valuable and worthy of follow-up research.

What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

Public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on JUPITER Modeling study from a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on the Justification for the Use of Statins in Primary Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin Study (JUPITER). METHODS: We studied 2268 adults aged 35-75 without cardiovascular disease in a population-based study in Switzerland in 2003-2006. We assessed the eligibility for statins according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) guidelines, and by adding "strict" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L and LDL-cholesterol <3.4mmol/L), and "extended" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L alone) JUPITER-like criteria. We estimated the proportion of CHD deaths potentially prevented over 10years in the Swiss population. RESULTS: Fifteen % were already taking statins, 42% were eligible by ATPIII guidelines, 53% by adding "strict", and 62% by adding "extended" criteria, with a total of 19% newly eligible. The number needed to treat with statins to avoid one CHD death over 10years was 38 for ATPIII, 84 for "strict" and 92 for "extended" JUPITER-like criteria. ATPIII would prevent 17% of CHD deaths, compared with 20% for ATPIII+"strict" and 23% for ATPIII + "extended" criteria (+6%). CONCLUSION: Implementing JUPITER-like strategies would make statin prescribing for primary prevention more common and less efficient than it is with current guidelines.

The Caribbean-North America-Cocos Triple Junction and the dynamics of the Polochic-Motagua fault systems: Pull-up and zipper models

The Polochic-Motagua fault systems (PMFS) are part of the sinistral transform boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. To the west, these systems interact with the subduction zone of the Cocos plate, forming a subduction-subduction-transform triple junction. The North American plate moves westward relative to the Caribbean plate. This movement does not affect the geometry of the subducted Cocos plate, which implies that deformation is accommodated entirely in the two overriding plates. Structural data, fault kinematic analysis, and geomorphic observations provide new elements that help to understand the late Cenozoic evolution of this triple junction. In the Miocene, extension and shortening occurred south and north of the Motagua fault, respectively. This strain regime migrated northward to the Polochic fault after the late Miocene. This shift is interpreted as a ``pull-up'' of North American blocks into the Caribbean realm. To the west, the PMFS interact with a trench-parallel fault zone that links the Tonala fault to the Jalpatagua fault. These faults bound a fore-arc sliver that is shared by the two overriding plates. We propose that the dextral Jalpatagua fault merges with the sinistral PMFS, leaving behind a suturing structure, the Tonala fault. This tectonic ``zipper'' allows the migration of the triple junction. As a result, the fore-arc sliver comes into contact with the North American plate and helps to maintain a linear subduction zone along the trailing edge of the Caribbean plate. All these processes currently make the triple junction increasingly diffuse as it propagates eastward and inland within both overriding plates.

A spatially explicit life cycle inventory of the global textile chain

Life cycle analyses (LCA) approaches require adaptation to reflect the increasing delocalization of production to emerging countries. This work addresses this challenge by establishing a country-level, spatially explicit life cycle inventory (LCI). This study comprises three separate dimensions. The first dimension is spatial: processes and emissions are allocated to the country in which they take place and modeled to take into account local factors. Emerging economies China and India are the location of production, the consumption occurs in Germany, an Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development country. The second dimension is the product level: we consider two distinct textile garments, a cotton T-shirt and a polyester jacket, in order to highlight potential differences in the production and use phases. The third dimension is the inventory composition: we track CO2, SO2, NO (x), and particulates, four major atmospheric pollutants, as well as energy use. This third dimension enriches the analysis of the spatial differentiation (first dimension) and distinct products (second dimension). We describe the textile production and use processes and define a functional unit for a garment. We then model important processes using a hierarchy of preferential data sources. We place special emphasis on the modeling of the principal local energy processes: electricity and transport in emerging countries. The spatially explicit inventory is disaggregated by country of location of the emissions and analyzed according to the dimensions of the study: location, product, and pollutant. The inventory shows striking differences between the two products considered as well as between the different pollutants considered. For the T-shirt, over 70% of the energy use and CO2 emissions occur in the consuming country, whereas for the jacket, more than 70% occur in the producing country. This reversal of proportions is due to differences in the use phase of the garments. For SO2, in contrast, over two thirds of the emissions occur in the country of production for both T-shirt and jacket. The difference in emission patterns between CO2 and SO2 is due to local electricity processes, justifying our emphasis on local energy infrastructure. The complexity of considering differences in location, product, and pollutant is rewarded by a much richer understanding of a global production-consumption chain. The inclusion of two different products in the LCI highlights the importance of the definition of a product's functional unit in the analysis and implications of results. Several use-phase scenarios demonstrate the importance of consumer behavior over equipment efficiency. The spatial emission patterns of the different pollutants allow us to understand the role of various energy infrastructure elements. The emission patterns furthermore inform the debate on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which applies only to pollutants which can be easily filtered and does not take into account the effects of production displacement. We also discuss the appropriateness and limitations of applying the LCA methodology in a global context, especially in developing countries. Our spatial LCI method yields important insights in the quantity and pattern of emissions due to different product life cycle stages, dependent on the local technology, emphasizing the importance of consumer behavior. From a life cycle perspective, consumer education promoting air-drying and cool washing is more important than efficient appliances. Spatial LCI with country-specific data is a promising method, necessary for the challenges of globalized production-consumption chains. We recommend inventory reporting of final energy forms, such as electricity, and modular LCA databases, which would allow the easy modification of underlying energy infrastructure.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

High precision U/Pb zircon dating of the Chalten Plutonic Complex (Cerro Fitz Roy, Patagonia) and its relationship to arc migration in the southernmost Andes

We report new high-precision U/Pb ages and geochemical data from the Chalten Plutonic Complex to better understand the link between magmatism and tectonics in Southern Patagonia. This small intrusion located in the back-arc region east of the Patagonian Batholith provides important insights on the role of arc migration and subduction erosion. The Chalten Plutonic Complex consists of a suite of calc-alkaline gabbroic to granitic rocks, which were emplaced over 530 kyr between 16.90 +/- 0.05 Ma and 16.37 +/- 0.02 Ma. A synthesis of age and geochemical data from other intrusions in Patagonia reveals (a) striking similarities between the Chalten Plutonic Complex and the Neogene intrusions of the batholith and differences to other back-arc intrusions such as Torres del Paine (b) a distinct E-W trend of calc-alkaline magmatic activity between 20 and 17 Ma. We propose that this trend reflects the eastward migration of the magmatic arc, and the consistent age pattern between the subduction segments north and south of the Chile triple junction suggests a causal relation with a period of fast subduction of the Farallon-Nazca plate during the Early Miocene. Previously proposed flat slab models are not consistent with the present location and morphology of the Southern Patagonian Batholith. We advocate, alternatively, that migration of the magmatic arc is caused by subduction erosion due to the increasing subduction velocities during the Early Miocene.

Stable isotope (C, O, S) systematics of the mercury mineralization at Idrija, Slovenia: constraints on fluid source and alteration processes

The world-class Idrija mercury deposit (western Slovenia) is hosted by highly deformed Permocarboniferous to Middle Triassic sedimentary rocks within a complex tectonic structure at the transition between the External Dinarides and the Southern Alps. Concordant and discordant mineralization formed concomitant with Middle Triassic bimodal volcanism in an aborted rift. A multiple isotopic (C, O, S) investigation of host rocks and ore minerals was performed to put constraints on the source and composition of the fluid, and the hydrothermal alteration. The distributions of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O values of host and gangue carbonates are indicative of a fracture-controlled hydrothermal system, with locally high fluid-rock ratios. Quantitative modeling of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O covariation for host carbonates during temperature dependent fluid-rock interaction, and concomitant precipitation of void-filling dolomites points to a slightly acidic hydrothermal fluid (delta(13)Capproximate to-4parts per thousand and delta(18)Oapproximate to+10parts per thousand), which most likely evolved during isotopic exchange with carbonates under low fluid/rock ratios. The delta(34)S values of hydrothermal and sedimentary sulfur minerals were used to re-evaluate the previously proposed magmatic and evaporitic sulfur sources for the mineralization, and to assess the importance of other possible sulfur sources such as the contemporaneous seawater sulfate, sedimentary pyrite, and organic sulfur compounds. The delta(34)S values of the sulfides show a large variation at deposit down to hand-specimen scale. They range for cinnabar and pyrite from -19.1 to +22.8parts per thousand, and from -22.4 to +59.6parts per thousand, respectively, suggesting mixing of sulfur from different sources. The peak of delta(34)S values of cinnabar and pyrite close to 0parts per thousand is compatible with ore sulfur derived dominantly from a magmatic fluid and/or from hydrothermal leaching of basement rocks. The similar stratigraphic trends of the delta(34)S values of both cinnabar and pyrite suggest a minor contribution of sedimentary sulfur (pyrite and organic sulfur) to the ore formation. Some of the positive delta(34)S values are probably derived from thermochemical reduction of evaporitic and contemporaneous seawater sulfates.

CCL21 is sufficient to mediate DC migration, maturation and function in the absence of CCL19.

Mice deficient in CCR7 signals show severe defects in lymphoid tissue architecture and immune response. These defects are due to impaired attraction of CCR7+ DC and CCR7+ T cells into the T zones of secondary lymphoid organs and altered DC maturation. It is currently unclear which CCR7 ligand mediates these processes in vivo as CCL19 and CCL21 show an overlapping expression pattern and blocking experiments have given contradictory results. In this study, we addressed this question using CCL19-deficient mice expressing various levels of CCL21. Complete deficiency of CCL19 and CCL21 but not CCL19 alone was found to be associated with abnormal frequencies and localization of DC in naïve LN. Similarly, CCL19 was not required for DC migration from the skin, full DC maturation and efficient T-cell priming. Our findings suggest that CCL21 is the critical CCR7 ligand regulating DC homeostasis and function in vivo with CCL19 being redundant for these processes.

Combining Internet Monitoring Processes, Packaging and Isotopic Analyses to Determine The Market Structure: Example of Gamma Butyrolactone

The Internet is becoming more and more popular among drug users. The use of websites and forums to obtain illicit drugs and relevant information about the means of consumption is a growing phenomenon mainly for new synthetic drugs. Gamma Butyrolactone (GBL), a chemical precursor of Gamma Hydroxy Butyric acid (GHB), is used as a "club drug" and also in drug facilitated sexual assaults. Its market takes place mainly on the Internet through online websites but the structure of the market remains unknown. This research aims to combine digital, physical and chemical information to help understand the distribution routes and the structure of the GBL market. Based on an Internet monitoring process, thirty-nine websites selling GBL, mainly in the Netherlands, were detected between January 2010 and December 2011. Seventeen websites were categorized into six groups based on digital traces (e.g. IP addresses and contact information). In parallel, twenty-five bulk GBL specimens were purchased from sixteen websites for packaging comparisons and carbon isotopic measurements. Packaging information showed a high correlation with digital data confirming the links previously established whereas chemical information revealed undetected links and provided complementary information. Indeed, while digital and packaging data give relevant information about the retailers, the supply routes and the distribution close to the consumer, the carbon isotopic data provides upstream information about the production level and in particular the synthesis pathways and the chemical precursors. A three-level structured market has been thereby identified with a production level mainly located in China and in Germany, an online distribution level mainly hosted in the Netherlands and the customers who order on the Internet.

Experimental thermal hydraulic studies on the enhancement of safety of LWRs

The safe use of nuclear power plants (NPPs) requires a deep understanding of the functioning of physical processes and systems involved. Studies on thermal hydraulics have been carried out in various separate effects and integral test facilities at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) either to ensure the functioning of safety systems of light water reactors (LWR) or to produce validation data for the computer codes used in safety analyses of NPPs. Several examples of safety studies on thermal hydraulics of the nuclear power plants are discussed. Studies are related to the physical phenomena existing in different processes in NPPs, such as rewetting of the fuel rods, emergency core cooling (ECC), natural circulation, small break loss-of-coolant accidents (SBLOCA), non-condensable gas release and transport, and passive safety systems. Studies on both VVER and advanced light water reactor (ALWR) systems are included. The set of cases include separate effects tests for understanding and modeling a single physical phenomenon, separate effects tests to study the behavior of a NPP component or a single system, and integral tests to study the behavior of the whole system. In the studies following steps can be found, not necessarily in the same study. Experimental studies as such have provided solutions to existing design problems. Experimental data have been created to validate a single model in a computer code. Validated models are used in various transient analyses of scaled facilities or NPPs. Integral test data are used to validate the computer codes as whole, to see how the implemented models work together in a code. In the final stage test results from the facilities are transferred to the NPP scale using computer codes. Some of the experiments have confirmed the expected behavior of the system or procedure to be studied; in some experiments there have been certain unexpected phenomena that have caused changes to the original design to avoid the recognized problems. This is the main motivation for experimental studies on thermal hydraulics of the NPP safety systems. Naturally the behavior of the new system designs have to be checked with experiments, but also the existing designs, if they are applied in the conditions that differ from what they were originally designed for. New procedures for existing reactors and new safety related systems have been developed for new nuclear power plant concepts. New experiments have been continuously needed.

Software Process Modeling with Eclipse Process Framework

The software development industry is constantly evolving. The rise of the agile methodologies in the late 1990s, and new development tools and technologies require growing attention for everybody working within this industry. The organizations have, however, had a mixture of various processes and different process languages since a standard software development process language has not been available. A promising process meta-model called Software & Systems Process Engineering Meta- Model (SPEM) 2.0 has been released recently. This is applied by tools such as Eclipse Process Framework Composer, which is designed for implementing and maintaining processes and method content. Its aim is to support a broad variety of project types and development styles. This thesis presents the concepts of software processes, models, traditional and agile approaches, method engineering, and software process improvement. Some of the most well-known methodologies (RUP, OpenUP, OpenMethod, XP and Scrum) are also introduced with a comparison provided between them. The main focus is on the Eclipse Process Framework and SPEM 2.0, their capabilities, usage and modeling. As a proof of concept, I present a case study of modeling OpenMethod with EPF Composer and SPEM 2.0. The results show that the new meta-model and tool have made it possible to easily manage method content, publish versions with customized content, and connect project tools (such as MS Project) with the process content. The software process modeling also acts as a process improvement activity.

A functional microsatellite of the macrophage migration inhibitory factor gene associated with meningococcal disease.

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) is an abundantly expressed proinflammatory cytokine playing a critical role in innate immunity and sepsis and other inflammatory diseases. We examined whether functional MIF gene polymorphisms (-794 CATT(5-8) microsatellite and -173 G/C SNP) were associated with the occurrence and outcome of meningococcal disease in children. The CATT(5) allele was associated with the probability of death predicted by the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (P=0.001), which increased in correlation with the CATT(5) copy number (P=0.04). The CATT(5) allele, but not the -173 G/C alleles, was also associated with the actual mortality from meningoccal sepsis [OR 2.72 (1.2-6.4), P=0.02]. A family-based association test (i.e., transmission disequilibrium test) performed in 240 trios with 1 afflicted offspring indicated that CATT(5) was a protective allele (P=0.02) for the occurrence of meningococcal disease. At baseline and after stimulation with Neisseria meningitidis in THP-1 monocytic cells or in a whole-blood assay, CATT(5) was found to be a low-expression MIF allele (P=0.005 and P=0.04 for transcriptional activity; P=0.09 and P=0.09 for MIF production). Taken together, these data suggest that polymorphisms of the MIF gene affecting MIF expression are associated with the occurrence, severity, and outcome of meningococcal disease in children.

Modeling and Simulation ofReal-Time System as a Tool to Improve Capacity Management - Case Fenix

Tämän tutkimustyön kohteena on TietoEnator Oy:n kehittämän Fenix-tietojärjestelmän kapasiteettitarpeen ennustaminen. Työn tavoitteena on tutustua Fenix-järjestelmän eri osa-alueisiin, löytää tapa eritellä ja mallintaa eri osa-alueiden vaikutus järjestelmän kuormitukseen ja selvittää alustavasti mitkä parametrit vaikuttavat kyseisten osa-alueiden luomaan kuormitukseen. Osa tätä työtä on tutkia eri vaihtoehtoja simuloinnille ja selvittää eri vaihtoehtojen soveltuvuus monimutkaisten järjestelmien mallintamiseen. Kerätyn tiedon pohjaltaluodaan järjestelmäntietovaraston kuormitusta kuvaava simulaatiomalli. Hyödyntämällä mallista saatua tietoa ja tuotantojärjestelmästä mitattua tietoa mallia kehitetään vastaamaan yhä lähemmin todellisen järjestelmän toimintaa. Mallista tarkastellaan esimerkiksi simuloitua järjestelmäkuormaa ja jonojen käyttäytymistä. Tuotantojärjestelmästä mitataan eri kuormalähteiden käytösmuutoksia esimerkiksi käyttäjämäärän ja kellonajan suhteessa. Tämän työn tulosten on tarkoitus toimia pohjana myöhemmin tehtävälle jatkotutkimukselle, jossa osa-alueiden parametrisointia tarkennetaan lisää, mallin kykyä kuvata todellista järjestelmää tehostetaanja mallin laajuutta kasvatetaan.