An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Immune response to Bacteroides forsythus in a murine model

A murine skin abscess model was used to study the immune response to an acute infection with Bacteroides forsythus. BALB/c mice were given subcutaneous injections of either viable or heat-killed B. forsythus, while a third sham-immunized control group received phosphate-buffered saline. Weights and lesion sizes were measured. Blood was collected from the heart and specific antibodies to B. forsythus measured by an ELISA. Swabs taken from the lesions and also from pooled blood were cultured anaerobically for viable B. forsythus. Viable B. forsythus-induced lesions reached maximum size at day 7. B. forsythus cells were recovered from lesions up to day 4 although none were cultured from blood samples. Heat-killed bacteria induced much smaller lesions. Serum antibody levels increased during the 9-day study period, being significantly higher in mice injected with viable compared with heat-killed B. forsythus. Antibody levels in sham control mice were significantly lower than those seen in the other two groups. These results showed that a subcutaneous injection of viable cells of B. forsythus elicited a pronounced abscess formation and induce higher levels of specific antibodies compared with that produced by an injection of dead bacteria. This suggests that, as with other periodontopathic organisms, this mouse model can be used to study the immune response to B. forsythus.

Model based procedure for scale-up of wet overflow ball mills Part 1: Outline of the methodology

Bond's method for ball mill scale-up only gives the mill power draw for a given duty. This method is incompatible with computer modelling and simulation techniques. It might not be applicable for the design of fine grinding ball mills and ball mills preceded by autogenous and semi-autogenous grinding mills. Model-based ball mill scale-up methods have not been validated using a wide range of full-scale circuit data. Their accuracy is therefore questionable. Some of these methods also need expensive pilot testing. A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed which does not have these limitations. This procedure uses data from two laboratory tests to determine the parameters of a ball mill model. A set of scale-up criteria then scales-up these parameters. The procedure uses the scaled-up parameters to simulate the steady state performance of full-scale mill circuits. At the end of the simulation, the scale-up procedure gives the size distribution, the volumetric flowrate and the mass flowrate of all the streams in the circuit, and the mill power draw.

Model-based procedure for scale-up of wet, overflow ball mills - Part II: Worked example

A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed which uses laboratory data to predict the performance of MI-scale ball mill circuits. This procedure contains two laboratory tests. These laboratory tests give the data for the determination of the parameters of a ball mill model. A set of scale-up criteria then scales-up these parameters. The procedure uses the scaled-up parameters to simulate the steady state performance of the full-scale mill circuit. At the end of the simulation, the scale-up procedure gives the size distribution, the volumetric flowrate and the mass flowrate of all the streams in the circuit, and the mill power draw. A worked example shows how the new ball mill scale-up procedure is executed. This worked example uses laboratory data to predict the performance of a full-scale re-grind mill circuit. This circuit consists of a ball mill in closed circuit with hydrocyclones. The MI-scale ball mill has a diameter (inside liners) of 1.85m. The scale-up procedure shows that the full-scale circuit produces a product (hydrocyclone overflow) that has an 80% passing size of 80 mum. The circuit has a recirculating load of 173%. The calculated power draw of the full-scale mill is 92kW (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based procedure for scale-up of wet, overflow ball mills - Part III: Validation and discussion

A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed. This procedure has been validated using seven sets of Ml-scale ball mil data. The largest ball mills in these data have diameters (inside liners) of 6.58m. The procedure can predict the 80% passing size of the circuit product to within +/-6% of the measured value, with a precision of +/-11% (one standard deviation); the re-circulating load to within +/-33% of the mass-balanced value (this error margin is within the uncertainty associated with the determination of the re-circulating load); and the mill power to within +/-5% of the measured value. This procedure is applicable for the design of ball mills which are preceded by autogenous (AG) mills, semi-autogenous (SAG) mills, crushers and flotation circuits. The new procedure is more precise and more accurate than Bond's method for ball mill scale-up. This procedure contains no efficiency correction which relates to the mill diameter. This suggests that, within the range of mill diameter studied, milling efficiency does not vary with mill diameter. This is in contrast with Bond's equation-Bond claimed that milling efficiency increases with mill diameter. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

n-fold Weibull multiplicative model

In this paper we study the n-fold multiplicative model involving Weibull distributions and examine some properties of the model. These include the shapes for the density and failure rate functions and the WPP plot. These allow one to decide if a given data set can be adequately modelled by the model. We also discuss the estimation of model parameters based on the WPP plot. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Species and regional variations in the effectiveness of antivenom against the in Vitro neurotoxicity of death adder (Acanthophis) venoms

Although viperlike in appearance and habit, death adders belong to the Elapidae family of snakes. Systemic envenomation represents a serious medical problem with antivenom, which is raised against Acanthophis antarcticus venom, representing the primary treatment. This study focused on the major Acanthophis variants from Australia and islands in the Indo-Pacific region. Venoms were profiled using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, and analyzed for in vitro neurotoxicity (0.3-10 mug/ml), as well as the effectiveness of antivenom. (1-5 units/ml; 10 min prior to the addition of 10 mug/ml venom). The following death adder venoms were examined: A. antarcticus (from separate populations in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia), A. hawkei, A. praelongus, A. pyrrhus, A. rugosus, A. wellsi, and venom from an unnamed species from the Indonesian island of Seram. All venoms abolished indirect twitches of the chick isolated biventer cervicis nerve-muscle preparation in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, all venoms blocked responses to exogenous acetylcholine (1 m-M) and carbachol (20 muM), but not KCl (40 mM), suggesting postsynaptic neurotoxicity. Death adder antivenom (1 unit/ml) prevented the neurotoxic effects of A. pyrrhus, A. praelongus, and A. hawkei venoms, although it was markedly less effective against venoms from A. antarcticus (NSW, SA, WA), A. rugosus, A. wellsi, and A. sp. Scram. However, at 5 units/ml, antivenom was effective against all venoms tested. Death adder venoms, including those from A. antarcticus geographic variants, differed not only in their venom composition but also in their neurotoxic activity and susceptibility to antivenom. For the first time toxicological aspects of A. hawkei, A. wellsi, A. rugosus, and A. sp. Seram venoms were studied. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Structural effects of lipophilic methotrexate conjugates on model phospholipid biomembranes

Lipophilic conjugates of the antitumor drug methotrexate (MTX) with lipoamino acids (LAAs) have been previously described as a tool to enhance MTX passive entrance into cells, overcoming a form of transport resistance which makes tumour cells insensitive to the antimetabolite. A knowledge of the mechanisms of interaction of such lipophilic derivatives with cell membranes could be useful for planning further lipophilic MTX derivatives with an optimal antitumour activity. To this aim, a calorimetric study was undertaken using a biomembrane model made from synthetic 1,2-dipalmitoyl-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DPPC) multilamellar liposomes. The effects of MTX and conjugates on the phase transition of liposomes were investigated using differential scanning calorimetry. The interaction of pure MTX with the liposomes was limited to the outer part of the phospholipid bilayers, due to the polar nature of the drug. Conversely, its lipophilic conjugates showed a hydrophobic kind of interaction, perturbing the packing order of DPPC bilayers. In particular, a reduction of the enthalpy of transition from the gel to the liquid crystal phase of DPPC membranes was observed. Such an effect was related to the structure and mole fraction of the conjugates in the liposomes. The antitumour activity of MTX conjugates was evaluated against cultures of a CCRF-CEM human leukemic T-cell line and a related MTX resistant sub-line. The in vitro cell growth inhibitory activity was higher for bis(tetradecyl) conjugates than for both the other shorter- and longer-chain derivatives. The biological effectiveness of the various MTX derivatives correlated very well with the thermotropic effects observed on the phase transition of DPPC biomembranes. (C), 2001 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

Smooth muscle cells of injured rat and rabbit arteries in culture: contractile and cytoskeletal proteins

The aim of this study is to determine whether subpopulations of smooth muscle cells (SMC). as distinguished by variations in contractile and cytoskeletal proteins, appear in the neointima at different times after vascular injury, and/or whether subpopulations develop during serial passaging of these cells. Rat aortae and rabbit carotid arteries were injured with a 2F Fogarty balloon catheter and cultures established from the resulting neointima and the media 2, 6, 12, 16 and 24 weeks later. Cultures were examined at passages 1-5 and subpopulations of SMC categorised by intensity of staining for each protein by immunohistochemistry. Two populations of SMC with different staining intensities ('+ +', '+') were observed for each of the following proteins: alpha -SM actin, SM-myosin, desmin and vimentin. Populations without these proteins were also found. Changes in the percentages of cells expressing these proteins were transitory, indicating that the populations were not limited to a particular tissue (neointima or media), time after injury or passage number. One exception was found in rabbit cultures where the number of desmin-expressing cells quickly decreased with both time after injury and time in culture. Subpopulations of SMC were found at all times after injury in the media and neointima of rat and rabbit arteries, and after multiple passage of these cells. There was no pattern of development of one population suggesting that either no subpopulation has a proliferative or migratory advantage over others, or that only one population exists: that is capable of diverse phenotypic changes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.