Follow the leader if you can, hedge if you must

Follow-the-Leader (FTL) is an intuitive sequential prediction strategy that guarantees constant regret in the stochastic setting, but has poor performance for worst-case data. Other hedging strategies have better worst-case guarantees but may perform much worse than FTL if the data are not maximally adversarial. We introduce the FlipFlop algorithm, which is the first method that provably combines the best of both worlds. As a stepping stone for our analysis, we develop AdaHedge, which is a new way of dynamically tuning the learning rate in Hedge without using the doubling trick. AdaHedge refines a method by Cesa-Bianchi, Mansour, and Stoltz (2007), yielding improved worst-case guarantees. By interleaving AdaHedge and FTL, FlipFlop achieves regret within a constant factor of the FTL regret, without sacrificing AdaHedge’s worst-case guarantees. AdaHedge and FlipFlop do not need to know the range of the losses in advance; moreover, unlike earlier methods, both have the intuitive property that the issued weights are invariant under rescaling and translation of the losses. The losses are also allowed to be negative, in which case they may be interpreted as gains.

Internet marketing and export market growth in Chile

Previous studies show that the Internet positively influences firms’ export activities from developed markets. However, the literature is vague as to whether the Internet has an impact on the export performance of firms from emerging markets. This study tests a conceptual model that includes the effect of Internet marketing capabilities on export market growth in an emerging market. Drawing on a cross-national sample of 204 export firms from a Latin American country (Chile), findings indicate that Internet marketing capabilities positively influence the availability of export information, which in turn impacts the development of business network relationships and export market growth.

Reforming the procurement of construction and financing of Australian infrastructure : advancing capacity, competition and investment

Funded by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage grant over four years (2009–13), the Major Infrastructure Procurement project sought to find more effective and efficient ways of procuring and delivering the nation’s social and economic infrastructure by investigating constraints relating to construction capacity, competition, and finance in new public sector major infrastructure.1 The research team comprised researchers in construction economics and finance from Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Griffith University (GU), The University of Hong Kong (UHK), and The University of Newcastle (UoN). Project partners included state government departments and agencies responsible for infrastructure procurement and delivery from all Australian mainland states, and private sector companies and peak bodies in the infrastructure sector (see “Introduction” for complete list). There are a number of major outcomes from this research project. The first of these is a scientifically developed decisionmaking model for procurement of infrastructure that deploys a novel and state-of-the-art integration of dominant microeconomic theory (including theories developed by two Nobel Prize winners). The model has been established through empirical testing and substantial experiential evidence as a valid and reliable guide to configuring procurement of new major and mega infrastructure projects in pursuance of superior Valuefor- Money (VfM). The model specifically addresses issues of project size, bundling of contracts, and exchange relationships. In so doing, the model determines the suitability of adopting a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) mode.

Stability analysis of STATCOM in distribution networks

This chapter presents the stability analysis based on bifurcation theory of the distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) operating both in current control mode as in voltage control mode. The bifurcation analysis allows delimiting the operating zones of nonlinear power systems and hence the computation of these boundaries is of interest for practical design and planning purposes. Suitable mathematical representations of the DSTATCOM are proposed to carry out the bifurcation analyses efficiently. The stability regions in the Thevenin equivalent plane are computed for different power factors at the Point of Common Coupling (PCC). In addition, the stability regions in the control gain space are computed, and the DC capacitor and AC capacitor impact on the stability are analyzed in detail. It is shown through bifurcation analysis that the loss of stability in the DSTATCOM is in general due to the emergence of oscillatory dynamics. The observations are verified through detailed simulation studies.

Exploring urban consumers’ attitudes and intentions to purchase local food in Chile

Although local food consumption is growing in importance there remains a lack of research addressing local food consumption preferences in less-developed countries. This paper aims to examine the drivers of local food purchase intentions for Chilean consumers. A model of local food behavioral intention was developed from consumer behavior theory. The model was tested using structural equation modeling with data from Chilean shoppers located in Santiago (n=283). The analysis revealed that Chilean consumers are willing to purchase local food based on their positive attitude towards buying local food and their feelings of connectedness with the environment, but not because they have a desire to support local businesses. These findings have implications for retailers, marketers and food producers.

The impact of Internet marketing capabilities on international network capability, a cross country study comparison between Australia, Chile and Taiwan internationalised SMEs

The Internet has been shown to positively enhance internationalisation for SMEs, but scant empirical testing limits our understanding of the explicit impact of the Internet on firm internationalisation. This paper highlights key areas where the integration of the Internet can be leveraged through Internet-related capabilities within the internationalisation of the firm. Specifically, this study investigates how Internet marketing capabilities play a role in altering international information availability, international strategic orientation, and international business network relationships. This study provides evidence, indicating that these key relationships may vary between countries. To examine these key relationships this study utilises draws from data small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in three export intensive markets; Australia (215 international SMEs), Chile (204 international SMEs) and Taiwan (130 international SMEs); and tests a conceptual model through structural equation modelling. Results from the data show the impact of Internet marketing capabilities in positively impacting traditional internationalisation elements, which varies between countries. That is, our findings highlight the international business network relationships in Australia and Taiwan are directly impacted by Internet marketing capabilities, but not in Chile. We offer some insight into why we see variance across comparative exporting countries in how they leverage new technological capabilities for internationalisation and firm performance.

Personal values and political activism: A cross-national study

Using data from 28 countries in four continents, the present research addresses the question of how basic values may account for political activism. Study 1 (N = 35,116) analyses data from representative samples in 20 countries that responded to the 21-item version of the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ-21) in the European Social Survey. Study 2 (N = 7,773) analyses data from adult samples in six of the same countries (Finland, Germany, Greece, Israel, Poland, and United Kingdom) and eight other countries (Australia, Brazil, Chile, Italy, Slovakia, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States) that completed the full 40-item PVQ. Across both studies, political activism relates positively to self-transcendence and openness to change values, especially to universalism and autonomy of thought, a subtype of self-direction. Political activism relates negatively to conservation values, especially to conformity and personal security. National differences in the strength of the associations between individual values and political activism are linked to level of democratization.

Basic personal values underlie and give coherence to political values: A cross national study in 15 countries

Do the political values of the general public form a coherent system? What might be the source of coherence? We view political values as expressions, in the political domain, of more basic personal values. Basic personal values (e.g., security, achievement, benevolence, hedonism) are organized on a circular continuum that reflects their conflicting and compatible motivations. We theorize that this circular motivational structure also gives coherence to political values. We assess this theorizing with data from 15 countries, using eight core political values (e.g., free enterprise, law and order) and ten basic personal values. We specify the underlying basic values expected to promote or oppose each political value. We offer different hypotheses for the 12 non-communist and three post-communist countries studied, where the political context suggests different meanings of a basic or political value. Correlation and regression analyses support almost all hypotheses. Moreover, basic values account for substantially more variance in political values than age, gender, education, and income. Multidimensional scaling analyses demonstrate graphically how the circular motivational continuum of basic personal values structures relations among core political values. This study strengthens the assumption that individual differences in basic personal values play a critical role in political thought.

Solo holiday travellers: Motivators and drivers of satisfaction and dissatisfaction

A growing number of people are travelling alone for holidays, yet limited research addresses this topic. This paper explores the main motivators and drivers of satisfaction and dissatisfaction for solo holiday travellers using a critical incident technique (CIT) to collect and analyse data. The findings show that drivers of satisfaction for solo holiday travellers are more related to personal feelings of freedom, relaxation and discovery (personal factors), and interaction with other people (human interaction factors), than with holiday destination factors. Safety (a destination factor) and unfriendly service providers (a human interaction factor) are the main sources of dissatisfaction for solo holiday travellers.

Investigating marketing managers' perspectives on social media in Chile

Social media has reached global proportions, yet little is known about firms’ engagement with these Web 2.0 technologies in emerging markets within Latin America. The study investigates Chilean marketing managers’ perspectives on social media platforms, the benefits or barriers to their firm’s marketing practices and the impact they have on the immediate marketing environment based on in-depth interviews. Applying Okazaki and Taylor’s (2013) social media framework the findings provide an understanding of social media’s role for Chilean firms in customer engagement, brand image enhancement, return on investment, and meeting consumer needs through time and place. Additional themes emerged on the use of social media through Smartphones and their value for future marketing activities.

Examining the role of wine brand love on brand loyalty: A multi-country comparison

This study develops and tests a model through a multi-country study that considers consumer wine knowledge and wine experience, wine brand trust and wine brand satisfaction as antecedents of wine brand love, and wine brand loyalty as a consequence of wine brand love. Data were collected in five wine-producing countries (Australia, Chile, France, Mexico and Portugal) with a final sample of 3462 completed surveys. Hypotheses were tested with structural equation modeling and the findings confirm the importance of brand love as both a mediator and direct influence on brand loyalty for wine consumers. Furthermore, brand satisfaction was positively and significantly related to brand love. In addition, wine experience, rather than wine knowledge, positively influenced brand trust and satisfaction. Finally, results also identify differences between countries thereby providing insights into how companies should focus their marketing strategies internationally.

Drivers of local food consumption: A comparative study

Purpose The aim of this paper is to empirically explore antecedents of local food purchase intention in two food producing countries with different cultural backgrounds. Design/methodology/approach An online survey was employed to collect data from consumers located in Chile (n=283) and Australia (n=300). A proposed model is tested with structural equation modelling (SEM). Findings Attitude towards consuming local food is a strong and direct driver of intentions to purchase local food in both countries. Attitude toward supporting local agri-businesses and consumer ethnocentrism are found to positively impact attitude towards consuming local food in both countries. Attitude towards local agri-businesses also has a direct effect on intentions to purchase local food in Australia, but not in Chile. Interestingly, subjective norms are not found to affect intentions to consume local food in either country. Research limitations/implications The paper examines factors affecting the attitude toward and behavioural intention regarding local food consumption and develops an extended model of local food consumption. An outcome of this new model is the inclusion of personal variables, which influence local food purchasing behaviour. Practical implications Producers and retailers need to develop campaigns explaining how consuming local food supports local businesses and farmers, which will reinforce personal values associated with local consumption. Originality/value This is the first study to demonstrate that positive attitudes toward local foods are important drivers of local food purchase behaviour, independent of the cultural characteristics or level of economic development within a country.

Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: A systematic evaluation

Background: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. Methods: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. Results: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Conclusions: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.

Herrana metsässä : Kansatieteellinen tutkimus metsänhoitajuudesta

The aim of the research is to interpret the professional culture of Finnish university-educated foresters in historical perspective. The main material of this research consists of biographical interviews, altogether 226 life stories of Finnish foresters, as well as foresters private photograph collections and articles in forest students' magazines. This study is the first published Ph. D. dissertation of a large oral history project "Forestry Professions in a Changing Society" 1999 2002 collected by The Finnish Forest History Society, the University of Helsinki (Ethnology) and The Finnish Forest Museum Lusto. The forester education was organized in the Evo Forest Institute 1862 1908, at the University of Helsinki since 1908 and additionally at the University of Joensuu since 1982. At first all the vacancies were in the service of the Board of Forestry, but during the 20th century the working opportunities of foresters significantly expanded, even outside the traditional areas of forestry or abroad. At the same time the whole area of Finnish forestry had integrated more versatile values concerning the forests and their use. The male-dominated profession gained its first female members already in the 1920s, and the number of female students rose gradually from the 1970s onwards. In the 1990s almost half of the new forest students were women. The content of both work and education of Finnish forest professionals has faced huge changes during the 19th and 20th centuries. Despite this however, there has been a long-term vision of a firm profession based on joint experiences, shared memories and the common task of foresters in the Finnish forestry. The feeling of togetherness the forester spirit which was created in a tight-knit student group which kept in touch also later as professionals was needed to make the work possible. Through foresters' own attitudes and narratives of themselves, the study is focused on forest professionalism as a cultural process of successive generations of foresters. How have foresters socialized themselves into their profession? How has forest professionalism been maintained? What is the meaning of joint experiences and shared memories in the profession? By studying the manifestations of a culture it is possible to interpret the culture itself. There seems to be an astounding consensus of opinion concerning forest professionalism in the oral, visual and written stories of foresters. Even if all the individuals and some separate groups, such as female foresters and the younger generation of foresters, did not always share the same experiences, the vision of forest professionalism was collectively recognized and often even approved. The shared idea of "a real forest professionalism" is like a model narrative, a point of comparison, which is needed while looking for one s own professional identity.

Den brændende Fakkel : Om dobbeltgrebet i Knud Lyne Rahbeks liv og revolutionsroman

Professor Knud Lyne Rahbek was a novelist, playwright, poet, magazine editor, journalist, socialite person, host of the Bakkehus , historian, theatre manager, translator, publisher etc., but his versatility either side of 1800 is better known than read and more despised than understood. In terms of methodology, the thesis is based on biographical, historical and philological research, while at the same time making use of formalistic and close reading methods. This study begins and ends with 7th of February 1800, when Kamma and Knud Lyne Rahbek join the exiled P.A. Heiberg at the inn near Frederiksberg Castle. What falls between is an interpretation of Rahbek s works in the service of democracy, human rights and freedom of the press as a pragmatic navigation between activities - both subversive and legitimate. Posterity mistook this range as mere spinelessness, and Rahbek was relegated to the literary and historical margins as an anachronism and as a jack of all trades, who did not know what he really wanted and therefore flitted about in so many fields just to be present. But Rahbek s problem was not one of standpoint, but rather how to find a balance between totalizing attitudes and confrontations between rebellious idealism and deep-rooted absolutism, without foregoing his belief in enlightenment, humanism and tolerance. In this way, and also through his personal conduct, which at that time was seen as jovial bonhommie, he made his contribution to the development of modern democratic Denmark in the full awareness of a popular, peaceful and down-to-earth community. Rahbek s principal work about the event of the French Revolution, which provides the focus for the above, is Camill og Constance. Et Revolutions Skilderie (1799). For today s reader, the novel about the revolution is an obvious example of a historical novel, as it does not only provide fictionalized information about past events placing them in a generally accepted perspective of historical development, but also gives the characters qualities, which, in Rahbek s words, allows the real events to influence the fictional characters. From this point of view, the novel of the revolution has shifted the benchmark for the first real historical novel on the European literary scene back by fifteen years. Lacking the aura so easily foisted on fearless iconoclasts or tragic losers, Rahbek s contribution may seem modest in spite of its enormous volume; but only when it is not evaluated in its full context, which is the development of Denmark towards an international democratic society.