Palette-colouring: a belief propagation approach

We consider a variation of the prototype combinatorial optimization problem known as graph colouring. Our optimization goal is to colour the vertices of a graph with a fixed number of colours, in a way to maximize the number of different colours present in the set of nearest neighbours of each given vertex. This problem, which we pictorially call palette-colouring, has been recently addressed as a basic example of a problem arising in the context of distributed data storage. Even though it has not been proved to be NP-complete, random search algorithms find the problem hard to solve. Heuristics based on a naive belief propagation algorithm are observed to work quite well in certain conditions. In this paper, we build upon the mentioned result, working out the correct belief propagation algorithm, which needs to take into account the many-body nature of the constraints present in this problem. This method improves the naive belief propagation approach at the cost of increased computational effort. We also investigate the emergence of a satisfiable-to-unsatisfiable 'phase transition' as a function of the vertex mean degree, for different ensembles of sparse random graphs in the large size ('thermodynamic') limit.

Using min-sum loopy belief propagation for decentralised supply chain formation

Modern business trends such as agile manufacturing and virtual corporations require high levels of flexibility and responsiveness to consumer demand, and require the ability to quickly and efficiently select trading partners. Automated computational techniques for supply chain formation have the potential to provide significant advantages in terms of speed and efficiency over the traditional manual approach to partner selection. Automated supply chain formation is the process of determining the participants within a supply chain and the terms of the exchanges made between these participants. In this thesis we present an automated technique for supply chain formation based upon the min-sum loopy belief propagation algorithm (LBP). LBP is a decentralised and distributed message-passing algorithm which allows participants to share their beliefs about the optimal structure of the supply chain based upon their costs, capabilities and requirements. We propose a novel framework for the application of LBP to the existing state-of-the-art case of the decentralised supply chain formation problem, and extend this framework to allow for application to further novel and established problem cases. Specifically, the contributions made by this thesis are: • A novel framework to allow for the application of LBP to the decentralised supply chain formation scenario investigated using the current state-of-the-art approach. Our experimental analysis indicates that LBP is able to match or outperform this approach for the vast majority of problem instances tested. • A new solution goal for supply chain formation in which economically motivated producers aim to maximise their profits by intelligently altering their profit margins. We propose a rational pricing strategy that allows producers to earn significantly greater profits than a comparable LBP-based profitmaking approach. • An LBP-based framework which allows the algorithm to be used to solve supply chain formation problems in which goods are exchanged in multiple units, a first for a fully decentralised technique. As well as multiple-unit exchanges, we also model in this scenario realistic constraints such as factory capacities and input-to-output ratios. LBP continues to be able to match or outperform an extended version of the existing state-of-the-art approach in this scenario. • Introduction of a dynamic supply chain formation scenario in which participants are able to alter their properties or to enter or leave the process at any time. Our results suggest that LBP is able to deal easily with individual occurences of these alterations and that performance degrades gracefully when they occur in larger numbers.

Decentralised supply chain formation:a belief propagation-based approach

Decentralised supply chain formation involves determining the set of producers within a network able to supply goods to one or more consumers at the lowest cost. This problem is frequently tackled using auctions and negotiations. In this paper we show how it can be cast as an optimisation of a pairwise cost function. Optimising this class of functions is NP-hard but good approximations to the global minimum can be obtained using Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP). Here we detail a LBP-based approach to the supply chain formation problem, involving decentralised message-passing between potential participants. Our approach is evaluated against a well-known double-auction method and an optimal centralised technique, showing several improvements: it obtains better solutions for most networks that admit a competitive equilibrium Competitive equilibrium as defined in [3] is used as a means of classifying results on certain networks to allow for minor inefficiencies in their auction protocol and agent bidding strategies. while also solving problems where no competitive equilibrium exists, for which the double-auction method frequently produces inefficient solutions.

Seminars and examinations:students' perceptions of the seminar in their examination revision strategy

Students’ performance in examinations is often weaker than in other forms of assessment. Yet it should not be assumed that examination technique is innate or skill based. Successful examination performance calls on students to synthesize information and to demonstrate academic competence. Successful academic performance is primarily concerned with articulatory principles of subject formation and appropriation. However, research into seminars, lectures and examination performances mostly seek to establish a relationship between ‘performance’ and ‘potential’, with much attention focused discretely upon either organizational considerations or the reluctant learner. By emphasizing the social construction of learning situations, this project locates the learning process within a notion of collective social experiences and mutual cooperation. In the broader sense it is interested in questions of meaning and understanding and the process by which concepts are constructed and understood. This process depends on ‘ritualization’, ‘participation frameworks’ and ‘embedding’ (Goffman, 1981). Some students experience difficulties in participating in the ritualized behaviour, which may affect their academic development. By seeking to investigate students’ perception of how they use seminars to develop their academic expertise, this project seeks to contribute to our understanding of the learning process, in particular, the relationship between students’ participation in the examination process and assessment strategies.

Building belief in organizational learning: the role of organizational learning efficacy

There appears to be a missing dimension in OL literature to embrace the collective experience of emotion, both within groups and communities and also across the organization as a whole. The concept of OL efficacy- as a stimulus offering energy and direction for learning - remains unexplored. This research involved engaging with a company we have called ‘Electroco’ in depth to create a rich and nuanced representation of OL and members’ perceptions of OL over an extended time-frame (five years). We drew upon grounded theory research methodology (Locke, 2001), to elicit feedback from the organization, which was then used to inform future research plans and/ or refine emerging ideas. The concept of OL efficacy gradually emerged as a factor to be considered when exploring the relationship between individual learning and OL. . Bearing in mind Bandura’s (1982) conceptualization of self-efficacy (linked with mastery, modelling, verbal persuasion and emotional arousal), we developed a coding strategy encompassing these four factors as conceptualized at the organizational level. We added a fifth factor: ‘control of OL.’ We focused on feelings across the organization and the extent of consensus or otherwise around these five attributes. The construct has potential significance for how people are managed in many ways. Not only is OL efficacy is difficult for competitors to copy (arising as it does from the collective experience of working within a specific context); the self-efficacy concept suggests that success can be engineered with ‘small wins’ to reinforce mastery perceptions. Leaders can signal the importance of interaction with the external context, and encourage reflection on the strategies adopted by competitors or benchmark organizations (modelling). The theory also underlines the key role managers may play in persuading others about their organization’s propensity to learn (by focusing on success stories, for example). Research is set to continue within other sectors, including the high-performance financial service sector as well as the health-care technology sector.

Decentralized supply chain formation using max-sum loopy belief propagation

Supply chain formation is the process by which a set of producers within a network determine the subset of these producers able to form a chain to supply goods to one or more consumers at the lowest cost. This problem has been tackled in a number of ways, including auctions, negotiations, and argumentation-based approaches. In this paper we show how this problem can be cast as an optimization of a pairwise cost function. Optimizing this class of energy functions is NP-hard but efficient approximations to the global minimum can be obtained using loopy belief propagation (LBP). Here we detail a max-sum LBP-based approach to the supply chain formation problem, involving decentralized message-passing between supply chain participants. Our approach is evaluated against a well-known decentralized double-auction method and an optimal centralized technique, showing several improvements on the auction method: it obtains better solutions for most network instances which allow for competitive equilibrium (Competitive equilibrium in Walsh and Wellman is a set of producer costs which permits a Pareto optimal state in which agents in the allocation receive non-negative surplus and agents not in the allocation would acquire non-positive surplus by participating in the supply chain) while also optimally solving problems where no competitive equilibrium exists, for which the double-auction method frequently produces inefficient solutions. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Belief nets for mental health

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Belief propagation on dense graphs with few strong links

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Traffic lights management using belief propagation

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Contract law concentrate:law revision and study guide

Contract Law Concentrate is a high quality revision guide which covers the main topics found on undergraduate courses. The clear, succinct coverage of key legal points within a specific topic area, including key cases, enables students to quickly grasp the fundamental principles of Contract law. Written by Jill Poole, an experienced teacher and examiner and author of Textbook on Contract Law and Casebook on Contract law. The book focuses on the needs of students to pass their exams with a number of pedagogical features which help with the preparation for exams and suggest ways to improve marks. Endorsed by students and lecturers for level of coverage, accuracy and exam advice. Online Resource Centre Interactive flashcards Glossary Exam and revision guidance.

Disowned recollections:denying true experiences undermines belief in occurrence but not judgments of remembering

Recent research findings have illustrated that false memories induced in the laboratory can be dissociated from the beliefs that the events had in fact occurred. In this study we assessed whether this dissociability is a quality peculiar to false memory, or whether it represents a general characteristic of autobiographical memory. To this end we examined whether people can be induced to stop believing in memories for true experiences. Participants observed and performed simple actions, and were later falsely informed that they had not performed some of them-that false memories for these actions had been implanted through the use of fabricated evidence. Before and after receiving this misinformation, participants rated their belief in and memory of performing those actions, other actions that they had also performed, and actions that they had not performed. Whereas the misinformation substantially undermined participants' beliefs in the specific performed actions about which they had been misinformed, it had little effect on their endorsement of remembering those actions. The misinformation thus boosted the proportion of occasions in which participants rated their memories as stronger than their beliefs, and it weakened the correlation between belief and memory ratings. Thus, this study provides the first experimental demonstration of non-believed memories of true experiences. We discuss our findings with reference to the small literature concerning the use of socially-communicated misinformation to undermine event memories, and with reference to the structure of autobiographical memory. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Resting state morphology predicts the effect of theta burst stimulation in false belief reasoning:ventrolateral prefrontal cortex in false belief reasoning

When required to represent a perspective that conflicts with one's own, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) suggests that the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (rvlPFC) supports the inhibition of that conflicting self-perspective. The present task dissociated inhibition of self-perspective from other executive control processes by contrasting belief reasoning-a cognitive state where the presence of conflicting perspectives was manipulated-with a conative desire state wherein no systematic conflict existed. Linear modeling was used to examine the effect of continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) to rvlPFC on participants' reaction times in belief and desire reasoning. It was anticipated that cTBS applied to rvlPFC would affect belief but not desire reasoning, by modulating activity in the Ventral Attention System (VAS). We further anticipated that this effect would be mediated by functional connectivity within this network, which was identified using resting state fMRI and an unbiased model-free approach. Simple reaction-time analysis failed to detect an effect of cTBS. However, by additionally modeling individual measures from within the stimulated network, the hypothesized effect of cTBS to belief (but, importantly, not desire) reasoning was demonstrated. Structural morphology within the stimulated region, rvlPFC, and right temporoparietal junction were demonstrated to underlie this effect. These data provide evidence that inconsistencies found with cTBS can be mediated by the composition of the functional network that is being stimulated. We suggest that the common claim that this network constitutes the VAS explains the effect of cTBS to this network on false belief reasoning. Hum Brain Mapp, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multiple roles for executive control in belief-desire reasoning:distinct neural networks are recruited for self perspective inhibition and complexity of reasoning

Belief-desire reasoning is a core component of 'Theory of Mind' (ToM), which can be used to explain and predict the behaviour of agents. Neuroimaging studies reliably identify a network of brain regions comprising a 'standard' network for ToM, including temporoparietal junction and medial prefrontal cortex. Whilst considerable experimental evidence suggests that executive control (EC) may support a functioning ToM, co-ordination of neural systems for ToM and EC is poorly understood. We report here use of a novel task in which psychologically relevant ToM parameters (true versus false belief; approach versus avoidance desire) were manipulated orthogonally. The valence of these parameters not only modulated brain activity in the 'standard' ToM network but also in EC regions. Varying the valence of both beliefs and desires recruits anterior cingulate cortex, suggesting a shared inhibitory component associated with negatively valenced mental state concepts. Varying the valence of beliefs additionally draws on ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, reflecting the need to inhibit self perspective. These data provide the first evidence that separate functional and neural systems for EC may be recruited in the service of different aspects of ToM.

Serum procalcitonin, interleukin-6, soluble intercellular adhesin molecule-1 and IgG to short-chain exocellular lipoteichoic acid as predictors of infection in total joint prosthesis revision

The diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection and its differentiation from aseptic loosening remains problematic. The definitive laboratory diagnostic test is the recovery of identical infectious agents from multiple intraoperative tissue samples; however, interpretation of positive cultures is often complex as infection is frequently associated with low numbers of commensal microorganisms, in particular the coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS). In this investigation, the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) as predictors of infection in revision hip replacement surgery is assessed. Furthermore, the diagnostic value of serum IgG to short-chain exocellular lipoteichoic acid (sce-LTA) is assessed in patients with infection due to CNS. Presurgical levels of conventional serum markers of infection including C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and white blood cell count (WBC) is also established. Forty-six patients undergoing revision hip surgery were recruited with a presumptive clinical diagnosis of either septic (16 patients) or aseptic loosening (30 patients). The diagnosis was confirmed microbiologically and levels of serum markers were determined. Serum levels of IL-6 and sICAM-1 were significantly raised in patients with septic loosening (P=0.001 and P=0.0002, respectively). Serum IgG to sce-LTA was elevated in three out of four patients with infection due to CNS. In contrast, PCT was not found to be of value in differentiating septic and aseptic loosening. Furthermore, CRP, ESR and WBC were significantly higher (P=0.0001, P=0.0001 and P=0.003, respectively) in patients with septic loosening. Serum levels of IL-6, sICAM-1 and IgG to sce-LTA may provide additional information to facilitate the diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection.

On the completeness of the universal knowledge-belief space

Meier (2008) shows that the universal knowledge-belief space exists. However, besides the universality there is an other important property might be imposed on knowledge-belief spaces, inherited also from type spaces, the completeness. In this paper we introduce the notion of complete knowledge-belief space, and demonstrate that the universal knowledge-belief space is not complete, that is, some subjective beliefs (probability measures) on the universal knowledge-belief space are not knowledge-belief types.