Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

Processos de auto-regulação no curso de vida: controle primário e controle secundário

Este artigo discute conceitos relevantes à perspectiva do curso de vida, porém pouco difundidos no Brasil: controle primário e controle secundário. O primeiro se refere aos esforços que o indivíduo empreende para adaptar o ambiente às suas necessidades; o segundo, para se adaptar ao ambiente. Apresenta-se a formulação original dos conceitos como modelo de dois processos de controle, em oposição a modelos de processo único, como o do desamparo aprendido. Em seguida, discute-se revisão conceitual que trouxe modificação e ampliação para estes construtos, concebendo-os em um modelo bidimensional que articula controle primário e secundário com os conceitos de seleção e compensação. Nesse processo, apresentam-se contribuições no intuito de estimular a reflexão e expandir a discussão teórico-conceitual que envolve estes construtos.

Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

A Simpler and More Accurate AUTO-HDS Framework for Clustering and Visualization of Biological Data

In [1], the authors proposed a framework for automated clustering and visualization of biological data sets named AUTO-HDS. This letter is intended to complement that framework by showing that it is possible to get rid of a user-defined parameter in a way that the clustering stage can be implemented more accurately while having reduced computational complexity

Coralistas amadores: auto-imagem, dificuldades e sintomas na voz cantada

Purpose: to evaluate vocal self-perception, difficulties and presence of negative symptoms after singing of amateur choir singers of different vocal classifications, age and experience. Method: one hundred and twenty five singers answered a questionnaire containing identification data, information about self-perception of the singing voice, difficulties with singing and negative symptoms after singing. Results: the comparison considering vocal classification evidenced greater difficulties with high notes for altos and basses, greater difficulty regarding the transition to high notes for basses and greater vocal fatigue for altos. Comparing the singers by age, both adults and young adults referred more breathiness than the elderly. The adults referred better vocal intensity than the young adults. The young adults referred better timbre than adults. Regarding the experience, the less experienced singers reported self-perception of hoarseness and presence of hoarseness after singing in greater number than the experienced singers. Conclusion: the difficulties with singing are connected to the vocal classification and do not depend on age or experience. Vocal symptoms are related to the vocal classification and to the experience with singing. Negative self-perception is also related the vocal classification and to the experience with singing, and positive self-perception was more reported by experienced singers.

Meningoencefalite concomitante a herpes zoster oftálmico em escolar previamente hígido

INTRODUÇÃO O vírus Varicella-Zoster é o agente da varicela, doença auto-limitada comum da faixa etária pediátrica. Cerca de 20% dos casos evoluem com herpes zoster em algum momento da vida, devido a reativação do vírus dos gânglios nervosos ou reexposição. O envolvimento do ramo oftálmico do nervo trigêmio, defido como zoster oftálmico, tem como complicação mais descrita a nevralgia pós-herpética, podendo evoluir com outras alterações locais agudas e tardias. Meningoencefalites concomitante a herpes zoster são pouco descritas na literatura. DESCRIÇÃO DO CASO Paciente de 9 anos, com antecedente de varicela com 1 ano de idade, com queixa de vômitos e cefaléia há dois dias, associada a queda do estado gerale hiporexia. Referiu aparecimento de lesões vesico-bolhosas dolorosas em região periorbitária esquerda há 1 dia e evoluiu com agitação psicomotora e confusão mental. No exame físico de entrada apresentava-se sonolento, com lesões vesico-bolhosas em dermátomo do ramo oftálmico do nervo trigêmio, sem sinais de irritação meníngea ou déficits motores, sem alterações visuais ou oculares. Realizada tomografia de crânio e eletroencefalograma sem alterações. Coletado líquor que revelou líquido límpido e incolor, com aumento de celularidade às custas de linfócitos, glicorraquia normal, bacterioscopia negativa e culturas negativas. Feita hipótese diagnóstica inicial de herpes zoster oftálmico complicado com meningoencefalite e introduzido aciclovir. Paciente evoluiu bem, com melhora do estado geral, remissão dos sintomas neurológicos e melhora das lesões de pele. Evidenciado PCR positivo para o vírus varicela-zoster (VVZ) no líquor. DISCUSSÃO Encontramos poucas descrições na literatura de herpes zoster oftálmico associado à alterações neurológicas. A presença da PCR positiva no liquor foi fundamental para o diagnóstico. CONCLUSÃO O VVZ pode reativar na forma de herper zoster oftálmico e acometer o sistema nervoso central. Apesar de evento raro em crianças, especialmente nas imunocompetentes, a presença da PCR positiva liquor confirmou a meningoencefalite.

O exame nacional do ensino médio (Brasil) 2004-2011: os itens sobre energia.

O Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (Enem) foi criando em 1998 com a finalidade de avaliar o sistema educacional brasileiro e como alternativa para ingresso no ensino superior. Em 2009, foi implementado o Sistema de Seleção Unificada (SiSU), o qual remodelou o exame, valorizando a função de seleção para o ensino superior do Enem. Escolhemos analisar como o tema energia, devido sua importância para as Ciências Naturais, foi abordado ao longo do tempo, utilizando para tanto categorias de abordagens das questões em dois períodos, pré e pós-reforma: Bloco A (2004-2008) e Bloco B (2009-2011). Identificamos indicativos que a implantação do SiSU influenciou as frequências absoluta e relativa e abordagem das questões sobre energia.