New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

Tourism in Albarracín and Region. Local Public Action and dynamics in recent key sustainable tourism development

Spanish tourist destinations in rural areas have been established over more than two decades of implementation of various public policy instruments (mainly tourism and rural development policies). These convey complementary objectives in theory but provoke distant results in practice. The intervention of these instruments produces in the region of Sierra de Albarracín (Teruel) two types of destination whose sustainability is committed: the historical urban site of Albarracín as a consolidated cultural tourism destination based on heritage and the Sierra as a generic and incipient destination of rural tourism. It is discussed how the deployment of the local public action causes a fragmented territory in two models of management and tourism development. Cooperation is presented as a key element for the necessary rethinking of tourism development in the region.

Leadership and emotional intelligence in nursing and midwifery education and practice: a discussion paper

Aim
A discussion of the concepts of leadership and emotional intelligence in nursing and midwifery education and practice.

Background
The need for emotionally intelligent leadership in the health professions is acknowledged internationally throughout the nursing and midwifery literature. The concepts of emotional intelligence and emotional-social intelligence have emerged as important factors for effective leadership in the healthcare professions and require further exploration and discussion. This paper will explore these concepts and discuss their importance in the healthcare setting with reference to current practices in the UK, Ireland and internationally.

Design
Discussion paper.

Data sources
A search of published evidence from 1990–2015 using key words (as outlined below) was undertaken from which relevant sources were selected to build an informed discussion.

Implications for nursing/midwifery
Fostering emotionally intelligent leadership in nursing and midwifery supports the provision of high quality and compassionate care. Globally, leadership has important implications for all stakeholders in the healthcare professions with responsibility for maintaining high standards of care. This includes all grades of nurses and midwives, students entering the professions, managerial staff, academics and policy makers.

Conclusion
This paper discusses the conceptual models of leadership and emotional intelligence and demonstrates an important link between the two. Further robust studies are required for ongoing evaluation of the different models of emotional intelligence and their link with effective leadership behaviour in the healthcare field internationally. This is of particular significance for professional undergraduate education to promote ongoing compassionate, safe and high quality standards of care.

Swift Heavy Ion Irradiation and Thermal Annealing Induced Modification of Structural, Topographical and Magnetic Properties in Monolayer and Bilayer Films Based on FeNiMoB and Zinc Ferrite

Magnetism and magnetic materials have been playing a lead role in the day to day life of human beings. The human kind owes its gratitude to the ‘lodestone’ meaning ‘leading stone’ which lead to the discovery of nations and the onset of modern civilizations. If it was William Gilbert, who first stated that ‘earth was a giant magnet’, then it was the turn of Faraday who correlated electricity and magnetism. Magnetic materials find innumerable applications in the form of inductors, read and write heads, motors, storage devices, magnetic resonance imaging and fusion reactors. Now the industry of magnetic materials has almost surpassed the semiconductor industry and this speaks volumes about its importance. Extensive research is being carried out by scientists and engineers to remove obsolescence and invent new devices. Though magnetism can be categorized based on the response of an applied magnetic field in to diamagnetic, paramagnetic, ferromagnetic, ferrimagnetic and antiferromagnetic; it is ferrimagnetic, ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic materials which have potential applications. The present thesis focusses on these materials, their composite structures and different ways and means to modify their properties for useful applications. In the past, metals like Fe, Ni and Co were sought after for various applications though iron was in the forefront because of its cost effectiveness and abundance. Later, alloys based on Fe and Ni were increasingly employed. They were used in magnetic heads and in inductors. Ferrites entered the arena and subsequently most of the newer applications were based on ferrites, a ferrimagnetic material, whose composition can be tuned to tailor the magnetic properties. In the late 1950s a new class of magnetic material emerged on the magnetic horizon and they were fondly known as metallic glasses. They are well known for their soft magnetic properties. They were synthesized in the form of melt spun ribbons and are amorphous in nature and they are projected to replace the crystalline counterparts.

Swift Heavy Ion Irradiation and Thermal Annealing Induced Modification of Structural, Topographical and Magnetic Properties in Monolayer and Bilayer Films Based on FeNiMoB and Zinc Ferrite

Magnetism and magnetic materials have been playing a lead role in the day to day life of human beings. The human kind owes its gratitude to the ‘lodestone’ meaning ‘leading stone’ which lead to the discovery of nations and the onset of modern civilizations. If it was William Gilbert, who first stated that ‘earth was a giant magnet’, then it was the turn of Faraday who correlated electricity and magnetism. Magnetic materials find innumerable applications in the form of inductors, read and write heads, motors, storage devices, magnetic resonance imaging and fusion reactors. Now the industry of magnetic materials has almost surpassed the semiconductor industry and this speaks volumes about its importance. Extensive research is being carried out by scientists and engineers to remove obsolescence and invent new devices. Though magnetism can be categorized based on the response of an applied magnetic field in to diamagnetic, paramagnetic, ferromagnetic, ferrimagnetic and antiferromagnetic; it is ferrimagnetic, ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic materials which have potential applications. The present thesis focusses on these materials, their composite structures and different ways and means to modify their properties for useful applications.

Occupied childhoods: discourses and politics of childhood and their place in Palestinian and Pan-­Arab screen content for children

This thesis explores changing discourses of childhood and the ways in which power relations intersect with socio-cultural norms to shape screen-based media for Palestinian children. Situated within the interdisciplinary study of childhood, the research is an institutional and textual analysis that includes discursive and micro-level analysis of the socio-political circumstances within which children consume media in present-day Palestine. The thesis takes a social constructionist view, arguing that ‘childhood’ is not a fixed universal concept and that discourses of childhood are produced at specific historical moments as an effect of power. The study has a three-part research agenda. The first section uses secondary literature to explore theories and philosophies relating to definitions of childhood in Arab societies. The second employs participant observation and semi-structured interviews to understand the history and politics of children’s media in the West Bank. The final part of the research activity focuses on the impact that definitions of childhood and the politics of children’s media have on broadcasting outcomes through an analysis of (a) discourses on children’s media that circulate in Palestinian society, and (b) local and pan-Arab cultural texts consumed by Palestinian children. The analysis demonstrates that complex ideological and political factors are at play, which has led to the marginalisation, politicisation and internationalisation of local production for children. Due to the lack of alternatives, local producers often rely on international funding, and are hence forced to negotiate competing definitions of childhood, which while fitting with an international agenda of normalising the Israeli occupation, conflict culturally and politically with local conceptions of childhood and hopes for the Palestinian nation. While the Palestinian community appreciates the positive potential of local production, discourses and strategies around children’s media show that Palestinian children are constructed as vulnerable, incomplete and in constant need of guidance. Pan-Arab content presents a slightly less didactic approach and in certain cases presents childhood as a dynamic space of empowerment. However, by constructing children as ‘consumercitizens’, it alienates Arab (and Palestinian) children from disadvantaged backgrounds,as the preferred audience is middle-class children living in oil-rich countries of the Gulf.

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

A Comparison of Audio Recordings and Therapist's Process Notes in Child and Adolescent Psychoanalytic Psychotherapy

Therapistsʼ process notes - written descriptions of a session produced shortly afterwards from memory - hold a significant role in child and adolescent psychoanalytic psychotherapy. They are central in training, in supervision, and in developing oneʼs understanding through selfsupervision and forms of psychotherapy research. This thesis examines such process notes through a comparison with audio recordings of the same sessions. In so doing, it aims to generate theory that might illuminate the causes of significantly patterned discrepancies between the notes and recordings, in order to understand more about the processes at work in psychoanalytic psychotherapy and to explore the nature of process notes, their values and limitations. The literature searches conducted revealed limited relevant studies. All identified studies that compare process notes with recordings of sessions seek to quantify the differences between the two forms of recording. Unlike these, this thesis explores the meaning of the differences between process notes and recordings through qualitative data analysis. Using psychoanalytically informed grounded theory, in total nine sets of process notes and recordings from three different psychoanalytic psychotherapists are analysed. The analysis identifies eight core categories of findings. Initial theories are developed from these categories, most significantly concerning the role and influence of a ʻcore transference dynamicʼ between therapist and patient. Further theory is developed on the nature and function of process notes as a means for the therapistʼs conscious and unconscious processing of the session, as well as on the nature of the influence of the relationships – both internal and external – within which they are written. In the light of the findings, a proposal is made for a new approach for learning about the patient and clinical work, ʻthe comparison methodʼ (supervision involving a comparison of process notes and recordings), and, in particular, for its inclusion within the training of psychoanalytic psychotherapists. Further recommendations for research are also made.

Formless being for flute, clarinet, bassoon, french horn, percussion, piano and string quartet

Thesis (D.M.A.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Small scale turbulence and mixing in semi-enclosed seas (Persian Gulf)

Turbulence and internal waves are probably important in generating layered structures in frontal region of marine environments (e.g. near river plumes outflow into the sea). Here we investigate the role of normal modes of internal waves in generation of layered structure in a part of Persian Gulf where river plume inters and in some laboratory experiments. The model prediction and observations show that layers so formed have a thickness of about 2m based on salinity variations with depth, but layers (about 5m) based on horizontal velocity profiles. Laboratory experiments with a plume outflow in a Filling Box profile also generate normal mode layered structure with 21H=0.5 (where A is layer thickness and H is the plume depth). In these experiments as Re of the flow is smaller than the Re of field flow. The normal modes are substantially dissipated with depth. Typical values of dissipation factor is about 0(100). This factor for field observation is 0(10) which is still substantial. Qualitative comparison between layered structure in field and laboratory is good. It should be emphasized that field observation is for semi-enclosed seas but the laboratory experiments are for enclosed region. Hence some of the discrepancies in the results of two cases are inevitable. Layered structures in marine environments are also produced by double diffusive convection. In this region this should be studied separately.

Magnetic susceptibility of Ce and Pr in SrB6 and YB6

Magnetic susceptibility data suggest that the crystal field splittings of the 4f levels of Ce and Pr impurities are larger in metallic YB6 than in isostructural and semiconducting SrB6, contrary to what might be expected. © 1969.

Investigations on growth ecology and reproduction of Sargassum sp. and Gracilaria on intertidal region in Bandar Lenge

Investigations on growth and quantity of phycocolloids of Sargassum sp. and Gracilaria corticata was done on field and laboratorial works over one year from January 2003 to May 2004. Sargassum thalli began growth from January. The highest biomass value recorded 1611.04 gm^-2 was obtained in November. The receptacles appeared on November and released eggs. The senescence of Sargassum thalli was in December and the new thallus began to grow from January, The highest relative growth rate (6.74 percent) was in February. The relative growth rate showed significant correlation (p<0,05) with temperature. The highest value of alginate was in November (10.02 percent). Alginat content showed significant correlations (p<0.05) with Sargassum biomass. There was no significant effect of environmental factors on alginate content. The highest biomass of Graciiaria was in Match (49.88 gm^-2). Maximum relative growth rate of Gracilara (2 percent) was in December. Relative growth rate of Gracilaria (2.8 percent) was in December. Relative growth rate of Gracilaria showed significant correlations (p<0.05) with temperature. There was significant effect of ammonium (p<0.05) on growth factors of Gracilaria, maximum agar content was in August {10.005 percent). The yield of agar showed significant correlation (p<0.05) with Gracilaria biomass and ammonium in field and laboratory.

Development of Zirconia based phosphors for application in lighting and as luminescent bioprobes

The strong progress evidenced in photonic and optoelectronic areas, accompanied by an exponential development in the nanoscience and nanotechnology, gave rise to an increasing demand for efficient luminescent materials with more and more exigent characteristics. In this field, wide band gap hosts doped with lanthanide ions represent a class of luminescent materials with a strong technological importance. Within wide band gap material, zirconia owns a combination of physical and chemical properties that potentiate it as an excellent host for the aforementioned ions, envisaging its use in different areas, including in lighting and optical sensors applications, such as pressure sensors and biosensors. Following the demand for outstanding luminescent materials, there is also a request for fast, economic and an easy scale-up process for their production. Regarding these demands, laser floating zone, solution combustion synthesis and pulsed laser ablation in liquid techniques are explored in this thesis for the production of single crystals, nanopowders and nanoparticles of lanthanides doped zirconia based hosts. Simultaneously, a detailed study of the morphological, structural and optical properties of the produced materials is made. The luminescent characteristics of zirconia and yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) doped with different lanthanide ions (Ce3+ (4f1), Pr3+ (4f2), Sm3+ (4f5), Eu3+ (4f6), Tb3+ (4f8), Dy3+ (4f9), Er3+ (4f11), Tm3+ (4f12), Yb3+ (4f13)) and co-doped with Er3+,Yb3+ and Tm3+,Yb3+ are analysed. Besides the Stokes luminescence, the anti- Stokes emission upon infrared excitation (upconversion and black body radiation) is also analysed and discussed. The comparison of the luminescence characteristics in materials with different dimensions allowed to analyse the effect of size in the luminescent properties of the dopant lanthanide ions. The potentialities of application of the produced luminescent materials in solid state light, biosensors and pressure sensors are explored taking into account their studied characteristics.

The impacts of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on largemouth bass: an integration of field and laboratory studies

Several environmental stressors can impact the physiology and survival of fishes. Fish experience natural fluctuations in temperature and dissolved oxygen, but variations in these parameters due to anthropogenic sources are typically greater in magnitude and duration. Changes in temperature and oxygen of anthropogenic origins may therefore have larger negative impacts on fish than those occurring during natural events. Physiological parameters are sensitive indicators of the impacts of stressors by providing insight into the manner in which fish are disturbed by the stressor. Fish may display cumulative physiological responses to successive stressors, but the concept of synergy among multiple thermal stressors is poorly understood. Further, some fish species can be subjected to competitive angling events, which expose fish to an array of additional stressors that can increase mortality. The impacts of these events may change over seasons as fish display seasonal changes in behavior and physiology. Latitudinal origin may also affect the physiological response and mortality of fish exposed to common environmental stressors as individual populations are adapted to local environmental conditions. This thesis focuses on addressing these potential impacts on physiological parameters and mortality of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and provides implications for management and conservation. Largemouth bass were relatively robust to abrupt changes in temperature and oxygen, but were perturbed from physiological homeostasis during large (12°C) temperature shocks and low (< 4 mg O2/L) levels of dissolved oxygen. Cumulative physiological impacts of multiple cold shocks were only slightly greater than the disturbances sustained during a single cold shock, suggesting largemouth bass are able to tolerate successive thermal stressors. Largemouth bass exhibited seasonal changes in physiological parameters but the responses of fish to angling tournaments were relatively similar across seasons when compared with seasonal controls. Mortality was low during angling tournaments held during four seasons and no apparent seasonal trends were observed. Lastly, largemouth bass from two latitudinally separated populations exhibited differences in their physiological responses to acute cold stressors and overwinter mortality, characterized by greater mortality and physiological disturbances of southern fish than northern fish. Knowledge gained from this study can be used to make management and conservation decisions regarding a host of environmental factors and provides insight into the mechanisms by which fish species can persist over large latitudinal ranges.

The grand challenge of food security - general lessons from a comprehensive approach to protecting stored grain from insect pests in Australia and India

We outline a philosophical approach to Grand Challenge projects, with particular reference to our experience in our food security project involving the protection of stored grain from insect attack in two countries on different continents. A key consideration throughout has been the management of resistance in these pests to the valuable fumigant phosphine. Emphasis is given to the chain of research issues that required solution and the assembly of a well-integrated team, overlapping in skills for effective communication, in each country to solve the problems identified along that chain. A crucial aspect to maintaining direction is the inclusion of key end users in all deliberations, as well as the establishment and maintenance of effective outlets for the dissemination of practical recommendations. We finish with a summary of our achievements with respect to our approach to this food security Grand Challenge.