940 resultados para [JEL:C20] Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models
Resumo:
High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.
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The aim of this work is the production and preliminary characterization of adsorbent new materials useful for sensor development. A new plasma chamber was simulated and designed in order to obtain multiple layers and/or composites in a single step. Plasma deposited organic fluorocompound and hexamethyldisilazane (HMDS) thin films were produced and tested as adsorbent layers. Chemical characterization used ellipsometry, Raman. infrared and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Hydrophobic and oleophobic character were determined by contact angle measurements. Adsorption characteristics were evaluated using quartz crystal microbalance. Not only HMDS but also the fluorocompound can polymerize but intermixing and a double layer are only obtained in very narrow conditions. The films are adsorbent and mildly hydrophobic. Films deposited on a microchromatographic column can be used on sample pretreatment to remove and/or preconcentrate volatile organic Compounds. Therefore, with this approach it is possible to obtain films with different monomers on double layer or composites, with organic/inorganic materials or particles and use them on sample pretreatment for chemical analysis. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Data on fertilisation and embryo quality in dairy cattle are presented and the main factors responsible for the low fertility of single-ovulating lactating cows and embryo yield in superovulated dairy cattle are highlighted. During the past 50 years, the fertility in high-producing lactating dairy cattle has decreased as milk production increased. Recent data show conception rates to first service to be approximately 32% in lactating cows, whereas in heifers it has remained above 50%. Fertilisation does not seem to be the principal factor responsible for the low fertility in single-ovulating cows, because it has remained above 80%. Conversely, early embryonic development is impaired in high-producing dairy cows, as observed by most embryonic losses occurring during the first week after fertilisation. However, in superovulated dairy cattle, although fertilisation failure is more pronounced, averaging approximately 45%, the percentage of fertilised embryos viable at 1 week is quite high (>70%). Among the multifactorial causes of low fertility in lactating dairy cows, high feed intake associated with low concentrations of circulating steroids may contribute substantially to reduced embryo quality. Fertilisation failure in superovulated cattle may be a consequence of inappropriate gamete transport due to hormonal imbalances.
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In this paper we investigate the quantum and classical dynamics of a single trapped ion subject to nonlinear kicks derived from a periodic sequence of Gaussian laser pulses. We show that the classical system exhibits: diffusive growth in the energy, or heating,'' while quantum mechanics suppresses this heating. This system may be realized in current single trapped-ion experiments with the addition of near-field optics to introduce tightly focused laser pulses into the trap.
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We have developed a new method for single-drop microextraction (SDME) for the preconcentration of organochlorine pesticides (OCP) from complex matrices. It is based on the use of a silicone ring at the tip of the syringe. A 5 μL drop of n-hexane is applied to an aqueous extract containing the OCP and found to be adequate to preconcentrate the OCPs prior to analysis by GC in combination with tandem mass spectrometry. Fourteen OCP were determined using this technique in combination with programmable temperature vaporization. It is shown to have many advantages over traditional split/splitless injection. The effects of kind of organic solvent, exposure time, agitation and organic drop volume were optimized. Relative recoveries range from 59 to 117 %, with repeatabilities of <15 % (coefficient of variation) were achieved. The limits of detection range from 0.002 to 0.150 μg kg−1. The method was applied to the preconcentration of OCPs in fresh strawberry, strawberry jam, and soil.
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Density-dependent effects, both positive or negative, can have an important impact on the population dynamics of species by modifying their population per-capita growth rates. An important type of such density-dependent factors is given by the so-called Allee effects, widely studied in theoretical and field population biology. In this study, we analyze two discrete single population models with overcompensating density-dependence and Allee effects due to predator saturation and mating limitation using symbolic dynamics theory. We focus on the scenarios of persistence and bistability, in which the species dynamics can be chaotic. For the chaotic regimes, we compute the topological entropy as well as the Lyapunov exponent under ecological key parameters and different initial conditions. We also provide co-dimension two bifurcation diagrams for both systems computing the periods of the orbits, also characterizing the period-ordering routes toward the boundary crisis responsible for species extinction via transient chaos. Our results show that the topological entropy increases as we approach to the parametric regions involving transient chaos, being maximum when the full shift R(L)(infinity) occurs, and the system enters into the essential extinction regime. Finally, we characterize analytically, using a complex variable approach, and numerically the inverse square-root scaling law arising in the vicinity of a saddle-node bifurcation responsible for the extinction scenario in the two studied models. The results are discussed in the context of species fragility under differential Allee effects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Hypertension (HTN) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular mortality, yet only a small proportion of hypertensive individuals receive appropriate therapy and achieve target blood pressure (BP) values. Factors influencing the success of antihypertensive therapy include physicians' acceptance of guideline BP targets, the efficacy and tolerability of the drug regimen, and patient compliance and persistence with therapy. It is now well recognised that most hypertensive patients require at least two antihypertensive agents to achieve their target BP. However, complicated treatment regimens are a major contributory factor to poor patient compliance. The use of combination therapy for HTN offers a number of advantages over the use of monotherapy, including improved efficacy, as drug combinations with a synergistic mechanism of action can be used. This additive effect means that lower doses of the individual components can be used, which may translate into a decreased likelihood of adverse events. The use of single-pill combination therapy, in which two or more agents are combined in a single dosage form, offers all the benefits of free combination therapy (improved efficacy and tolerability over monotherapy) together with the added benefit of improved patient compliance because of the simplified treatment regimen. The use of single-pill combination therapy may also be associated with cost savings compared with the use of free combinations for reasons of cheaper drug costs, fewer physician visits and fewer hospitalisations for uncontrolled HTN and cardiovascular events. Thus, the use of single-pill combination therapy for HTN should help improve BP goal attainment through improved patient compliance, leading to reduced costs for cardiovascular-related care.
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Interaction effects are usually modeled by means of moderated regression analysis. Structural equation models with non-linear constraints make it possible to estimate interaction effects while correcting formeasurement error. From the various specifications, Jöreskog and Yang's(1996, 1998), likely the most parsimonious, has been chosen and further simplified. Up to now, only direct effects have been specified, thus wasting much of the capability of the structural equation approach. This paper presents and discusses an extension of Jöreskog and Yang's specification that can handle direct, indirect and interaction effects simultaneously. The model is illustrated by a study of the effects of an interactive style of use of budgets on both company innovation and performance
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Heart tissue inflammation, progressive fibrosis and electrocardiographic alterations occur in approximately 30% of patients infected by Trypanosoma cruzi, 10-30 years after infection. Further, plasma levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and nitric oxide (NO) are associated with the degree of heart dysfunction in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). Thus, our aim was to establish experimental models that mimic a range of parasitological, pathological and cardiac alterations described in patients with chronic Chagas217; heart disease and evaluate whether heart disease severity was associated with increased TNF and NO levels in the serum. Our results show that C3H/He mice chronically infected with the Colombian T. cruzi strain have more severe cardiac parasitism and inflammation than C57BL/6 mice. In addition, connexin 43 disorganisation and fibronectin deposition in the heart tissue, increased levels of creatine kinase cardiac MB isoenzyme activity in the serum and more severe electrical abnormalities were observed in T. cruzi-infected C3H/He mice compared to C57BL/6 mice. Therefore, T. cruzi-infected C3H/He and C57BL/6 mice represent severe and mild models of CCC, respectively. Moreover, the CCC severity paralleled the TNF and NO levels in the serum. Therefore, these models are appropriate for studying the pathophysiology and biomarkers of CCC progression, as well as for testing therapeutic agents for patients with Chagas217; heart disease.
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Circadian cycles and cell cycles are two fundamental periodic processes with a period in the range of 1 day. Consequently, coupling between such cycles can lead to synchronization. Here, we estimated the mutual interactions between the two oscillators by time-lapse imaging of single mammalian NIH3T3 fibroblasts during several days. The analysis of thousands of circadian cycles in dividing cells clearly indicated that both oscillators tick in a 1:1 mode-locked state, with cell divisions occurring tightly 5 h before the peak in circadian Rev-Erbα-YFP reporter expression. In principle, such synchrony may be caused by either unidirectional or bidirectional coupling. While gating of cell division by the circadian cycle has been most studied, our data combined with stochastic modeling unambiguously show that the reverse coupling is predominant in NIH3T3 cells. Moreover, temperature, genetic, and pharmacological perturbations showed that the two interacting cellular oscillators adopt a synchronized state that is highly robust over a wide range of parameters. These findings have implications for circadian function in proliferative tissues, including epidermis, immune cells, and cancer.
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Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.
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Waveform-based tomographic imaging of crosshole georadar data is a powerful method to investigate the shallow subsurface because of its ability to provide images of electrical properties in near-surface environments with unprecedented spatial resolution. A critical issue with waveform inversion is the a priori unknown source signal. Indeed, the estimation of the source pulse is notoriously difficult but essential for the effective application of this method. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of a recently proposed deconvolution-based procedure to estimate the source pulse during waveform inversion of crosshole georadar data, where changes in wavelet shape with location as a result of varying near-field conditions and differences in antenna coupling may be significant. Specifically, we examine whether a single, average estimated source current function can adequately represent the pulses radiated at all transmitter locations during a crosshole georadar survey, or whether a separate source wavelet estimation should be performed for each transmitter gather. Tests with synthetic and field data indicate that remarkably good tomographic reconstructions can be obtained using a single estimated source pulse when moderate to strong variability exists in the true source signal with antenna location. Only in the case of very strong variability in the true source pulse are tomographic reconstructions clearly improved by estimating a different source wavelet for each transmitter location.
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Systematic trends in the properties of a linear split-gate heterojunction are studied by solving iteratively the Poisson and Schrödinger equations for different gate potentials and temperatures. A two-dimensional approximation is presented that is much simpler in the numerical implementation and that accurately reproduces all significant trends. In deriving this approximation, we provide a rigorous and quantitative basis for the formulation of models that assumes a two-dimensional character for the electron gas at the junction.
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A general scheme for devising efficient cluster dynamics proposed in a previous paper [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1541 (1994)] is extensively discussed. In particular, the strong connection among equilibrium properties of clusters and dynamic properties as the correlation time for magnetization is emphasized. The general scheme is applied to a number of frustrated spin models and the results discussed.
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The magnetic properties of BaFe12O19 and BaFe10.2Sn0.74Co0.66O19 single crystals have been investigated in the temperature range (1.8 to 320 K) with a varying field from -5 to +5 T applied parallel and perpendicular to the c axis. Low-temperature magnetic relaxation, which is ascribed to the domain-wall motion, was performed between 1.8 and 15 K. The relaxation of magnetization exhibits a linear dependence on logarithmic time. The magnetic viscosity extracted from the relaxation data, decreases linearly as temperature goes down, which may correspond to the thermal depinning of domain walls. Below 2.5 K, the viscosity begins to deviate from the linear dependence on temperature, tending to be temperature independent. The near temperature independence of viscosity suggests the existence of quantum tunneling of antiferromagnetic domain wall in this temperature range.