Car following model improvement for traffic safety metrics reproduction

Car Following models have a critical role in all microscopic traffic simulation models. Current microscopic simulation models are unable to mimic the unsafe behaviour of drivers as most are based on presumptions about the safe behaviour of drivers. Gipps model is a widely used car following model embedded in different micro-simulation models. This paper examines the Gipps car following model to investigate ways of improving the model for safety studies application. The paper puts forward some suggestions to modify the Gipps model to improve its capabilities to simulate unsafe vehicle movements (vehicles with safety indicators below critical thresholds). The result of the paper is one step forward to facilitate assessing and predicting safety at motorways using microscopic simulation. NGSIM as a rich source of vehicle trajectory data for a motorway is used to extract its relatively risky events. Short following headways and Time To Collision are used to assess critical safety event within traffic flow. The result shows that the modified proposed car following to a certain extent predicts the unsafe trajectories with smaller error values than the generic Gipps model.

Community-based protest against construction projects : a case study of movement continuity

Community-based activism against proposed construction projects is growing. Many protests are poorly managed and escalate into long-term and sometimes acrimonious disputes which damage communities, firms and the construction industry as a whole. Using a thematic storytelling approach which draws on ethnographic method, within a single case study framework, new insights into the social forces that shape and sustain community-based protest against construction projects are provided. A conceptual model of protest movement continuity is presented which highlights the factors that sustain protest continuity over time. The model illustrates how social contagion leads to common community perceptions of development risk and opportunity, to a positive internalization of collective values and identity, to a strategic utilization of social capital and an awareness of the need to manage the emotional dynamics of protest through mechanisms such as symbolic artefacts.

Practical stability of approximating discrete-time filters with respect to model mismatch using relative entropy concepts

This paper establishes practical stability results for an important range of approximate discrete-time filtering problems involving mismatch between the true system and the approximating filter model. Using local consistency assumption, the practical stability established is in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of bias introduced by the model approximation. Significantly, these practical stability results do not require the approximating model to be of the same model type as the true system. Our analysis applies to a wide range of estimation problems and justifies the common practice of approximating intractable infinite dimensional nonlinear filters by simpler computationally tractable filters.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical VC dimension, empirical VC entropy, and margin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Artful inquiry : an arts-based facilitation approach for individual and organisational learning and development

The research undertaken in these two major doctoral studies investigates the field of artsbased learning, a pedagogical approach to individual and organisational learning and development, my professional creative facilitation practice and development as a researcher. While the studies are stand-alone projects they are intended to build on each other in order to tell the evolving story of my research and professional practice. The first study combines The Role of Arts-based Learning in a Creative Economy; The Need for Artistry in Professional Education the art of knowing what to do when you don’t know what to do and Lines of Inquiry: Making Sense of Research and Professional Practice. The Role of Arts-based Learning in a Creative Economy provides an overview of the field of arts-based learning in business. The study focuses on the relevant literature and interviews with people working in the field. The paper argues that arts-based learning is a valuable addition to organisations for building a culture of creativity and innovation. The Need for Artistry in Professional Education continues that investigation. It explores the way artists approach their work and considers what skills and capabilities from artistic practice can be applied to other professions’ practices. From this research the Sphere of Professional Artistry model is developed and depicts the process of moving toward professional artistry. Lines of Inquiry: making sense of research and professional practice through artful inquiry is a self-reflective study. It explores my method of inquiry as a researcher and as a creative facilitation practitioner using arts-based learning processes to facilitate groups of people for learning, development and change. It discusses how my research and professional practice influence and inspire the other and draws on cased studies. The second major research study Artful Inquiry: Arts-based Learning for Inquiry, Reflection and Action in Professional Practice is a one year practice-led inquiry. It continues the research into arts-based and aesthetic learning experiences and my arts-based facilitation practice. The research is conducted with members of a Women’s Network in a large government service agency. It develops the concept of ‘Artful Inquiry’’ a creative, holistic, and embodied approach for facilitation, inquiry, learning, reflection, and action. Storytelling as Inquiry is used as a methodology for understanding participants’ experiences of being involved in arts-based learning experiences. The study reveals the complex and emergent nature of practice and research. It demonstrates what it can mean to do practice-led research with others, within an organisational context, and to what effect.

Partial protection against chlamydial reproductive tract infection by a recombinant major outer membrane protein/CpG/cholera toxin intranasal vaccine in the guinea pig Chlamydia cavaie model

Chlamydia trachomatis is a major cause of sexually transmitted diseases worldwide. There currently is no vaccine to protect against chlamydial infection of the female reproductive tract. Vaccine development has predominantly involved using the murine model, however infection of female guinea pigs with Chlamydia caviae more closely resembles chlamydial infection of the human female reproductive tract, and presents a better model to assess potential human chlamydial vaccines. We immunised female guinea pigs intranasally with recombinant major outer membrane protein (r-MOMP) combined with CpG-10109 and cholera toxin adjuvants. Both systemic and mucosal immune responses were elicited in immunised animals. MOMP-specific IgG and IgA were present in the vaginal mucosae, and high levels of MOMP-specific IgG were detected in the serum of immunised animals. Antibodies from the vaginal mucosae were also shown to be capable of neutralising C. caviae in vitro. Following immunisation, animals were challenged intravaginally with a live C. caviae infection of 102 inclusion forming units. We observed a decrease in duration of infection and a significant (p<0.025) reduction in infection load in r-MOMP immunised animals, compared to animals immunised with adjuvant only. Importantly, we also observed a marked reduction in upper reproductive tract (URT) pathology in r-MOMP immunised animals. Intranasal immunisation of female guinea pigs with r-MOMP was able to provide partial protection against C. caviae infection, not only by reducing chlamydial burden but also URT pathology. This data demonstrates the value of using the guinea pig model to evaluate potential chlamydial vaccines for protection against infection and disease pathology caused by C. trachomatis in the female reproductive tract.

Fast rates for estimation error and oracle inequalities for model section

We consider complexity penalization methods for model selection. These methods aim to choose a model to optimally trade off estimation and approximation errors by minimizing the sum of an empirical risk term and a complexity penalty. It is well known that if we use a bound on the maximal deviation between empirical and true risks as a complexity penalty, then the risk of our choice is no more than the approximation error plus twice the complexity penalty. There are many cases, however, where complexity penalties like this give loose upper bounds on the estimation error. In particular, if we choose a function from a suitably simple convex function class with a strictly convex loss function, then the estimation error (the difference between the risk of the empirical risk minimizer and the minimal risk in the class) approaches zero at a faster rate than the maximal deviation between empirical and true risks. In this paper, we address the question of whether it is possible to design a complexity penalized model selection method for these situations. We show that, provided the sequence of models is ordered by inclusion, in these cases we can use tight upper bounds on estimation error as a complexity penalty. Surprisingly, this is the case even in situations when the difference between the empirical risk and true risk (and indeed the error of any estimate of the approximation error) decreases much more slowly than the complexity penalty. We give an oracle inequality showing that the resulting model selection method chooses a function with risk no more than the approximation error plus a constant times the complexity penalty.

A new control-volume finite-element scheme for heterogeneous porous media : application to the drying of softwood

An improved mesoscopic model is presented for simulating the drying of porous media. The aim of this model is to account for two scales simultaneously: the scale of the whole product and the scale of the heterogeneities of the porous medium. The innovation of this method is the utilization of a new mass-conservative scheme based on the Control-Volume Finite-Element (CV-FE) method that partitions the moisture content field over the individual sub-control volumes surrounding each node within the mesh. Although the new formulation has potential for application across a wide range of transport processes in heterogeneous porous media, the focus here is on applying the model to the drying of small sections of softwood consisting of several growth rings. The results conclude that, when compared to a previously published scheme, only the new mass-conservative formulation correctly captures the true moisture content evolution in the earlywood and latewood components of the growth rings during drying.

Practical stability with respect to model mismatch of approximate discrete-time output feedback control

This paper establishes a practical stability result for discrete-time output feedback control involving mismatch between the exact system to be stabilised and the approximating system used to design the controller. The practical stability is in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of error bias introduced by the model approximation, and is established using local consistency properties of the systems. Importantly, the practical stability established here does not require the approximating system to be of the same model type as the exact system. Examples are presented to illustrate the nature of our practical stability result.

Measurement and correlates of caregiver self-efficacy amongst family caregivers of persons with dementia living in Shanghai, China

Background: Caring for family members with dementia can be a long-term, burdensome task resulting in physical and emotional distress and impairment. Research has demonstrated significantly lower levels of selfefficacy among family caregivers of people with dementia (CGs) than caregivers of relatives with non-dementia diseases. Intervention studies have also suggested that the mental and physical health of dementia CGs could be improved through the enhancement of their self-efficacy. However, studies are limited in terms of the influences of caregiver self-efficacy on caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life. Of particular note is that there are no studies on the applicability of caregiver self-efficacy in the social context of China. Objective: The purpose of this thesis was to undertake theoretical exploration using Bandura’s (1997) self-efficacy theory to 1) revise the Revised Caregiving Self-Efficacy Scale (C-RCSES) (Steffen, McKibbin, Zeiss, Gallagher-Thompson, & Bandura, 2002), and 2) explore determinants of caregiver self-efficacy and the role of caregiver self-efficacy and other conceptual constructs (including CGs’ socio-demographic characteristics, CRs’ impairment and CGs’ social support) in explaining and predicting caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life among CGs in China. Methodology: Two studies were undertaken: a qualitative elicitation study with 10 CGs; and a cross-sectional survey with 196 CGs. In the first study, semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore caregiver behaviours and corresponding challenges for their performance. The findings of the study assisted in the development of the initial items and domains of the Chinese version of the Revised Caregiving Self-Efficacy Scale (C-RCSES). Following changes to items in the scale, the second study, a cross-sectional survey with 196 CGs was conducted to evaluate the psychometric properties of C-RCSES and to test a hypothesised self-efficacy model of family caregiving adapted from Bandura’s theory (1997). Results: 35 items were generated from the qualitative data. The content validity of the C-RCSES was assessed and ensured in Study One before being used for the cross-sectional survey. Eight items were removed and five subscales (caregiver self-efficacy for gathering information about treatment, symptoms and health care; obtaining support; responding to problematic behaviours; management of household, personal and medical care; and controlling upsetting thoughts about caregiving) were identified after principal component factor analysis on the cross-sectional survey data. The reliability of the scale is acceptable: the Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the whole scale and for each subscale were all over .80; and the fourweek test-retest reliabilities for the whole scale and for each subscale ranged from .64 to .85. The concurrent, convergent and divergent validity were also acceptable. CGs reported moderate levels of caregiver self-efficacy. Furthermore, the level of self-efficacy for management of household, personal and medical care was relatively high in comparison to those of the other four domains of caregiver self-efficacy. Caregiver self-efficacy was also significantly influenced by CGs’ socio-demographic characteristics and the caregiving external factors (CR impairment and social support that CGs obtained). The level of caregiver behaviour that CGs reported was higher than that reported in other Chinese research. CGs’ socio-demographics significantly influenced caregiver behaviour, whereas caregiver self-efficacy did not influence caregiver behaviour. Regarding the two external factors, CGs who cared for highly impaired relatives reported high levels of caregiver behaviour, but social support did not influence caregiver behaviour. Regarding caregiver subjective burden and health-related quality of life, CGs reported moderate levels of subjective burden, and their level of healthrelated quality of life was significantly lower than that of the general population in China. The findings also indicated that CGs’ subjective burden and health-related quality of life were influenced by all major factors in the hypothesised model, including CGs’ socio-demographics, CRs’ impairment, social support that CGs obtained, caregiver self-efficacy and caregiver behaviour. Of these factors, caregiver self-efficacy and social support significantly improved their subjective burden and health-related quality of life; whereas caregiver behaviour and CRs’ impairment were detrimental to CGs, such as increasing subjective burden and worsening health-related quality of life. Conclusion: While requiring further exploration, the qualitative study was the first qualitative research conducted in China to provide an in-depth understanding of CGs’ caregiving experience, including their major caregiver behaviours and the corresponding challenges. Meanwhile, although the C-RCSES needs further psychometric testing, it is a useful tool for assessing caregiver self-efficacy in Chinese populations. Results of the qualitative and quantitative study provide useful information for future studies regarding the explanatory power of caregiver self-efficacy to caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life. Additionally, integrated with Bandura’s theory, the findings from the quantitative study also suggested a further study exploring the role of outcome expectations in caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and healthrelated quality of life.

A Raman spectroscopic study of the different vanadate-groups in solid-state compounds, model case : mineral phases vésigniéite, BaCu3(VO4)2(OH)2, and volborthite, Cu3V2O7(OH)2•2H2O

Raman spectroscopy has been used to study vanadates in the solid state. The molecular structure of the vanadate minerals vésigniéite [BaCu3(VO4)2(OH)2] and volborthite [Cu3V2O7(OH)2·2H2O] have been studied by Raman spectroscopy and infrared spectroscopy. The spectra are related to the structure of the two minerals. The Raman spectrum of vésigniéite is characterized by two intense bands at 821 and 856 cm−1 assigned to ν1 (VO4)3− symmetric stretching modes. A series of infrared bands at 755, 787 and 899 cm−1 are assigned to the ν3 (VO4)3− antisymmetric stretching vibrational mode. Raman bands at 307 and 332 cm−1 and at 466 and 511 cm−1 are assigned to the ν2 and ν4 (VO4)3− bending modes. The Raman spectrum of volborthite is characterized by the strong band at 888 cm−1, assigned to the ν1 (VO3) symmetric stretching vibrations. Raman bands at 858 and 749 cm−1 are assigned to the ν3 (VO3) antisymmetric stretching vibrations; those at 814 cm−1 to the ν3 (VOV) antisymmetric vibrations; that at 508 cm−1 to the ν1 (VOV) symmetric stretching vibration and those at 442 and 476 cm−1 and 347 and 308 cm−1 to the ν4 (VO3) and ν2 (VO3) bending vibrations, respectively. The spectra of vésigniéite and volborthite are similar, especially in the region of skeletal vibrations, even though their crystal structures differ.

Inhibition of p38 pathway leads to OA-like changes in a rat animal model

Objectives The p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signal transduction pathway is involved in a variety of inflammatory responses, including cytokine generation, cell differentiation proliferation and apoptosis. Here, we examined the effects of systemic p38 MAPK inhibition on cartilage cells and osteoarthritis (OA) disease progression by both in vitro and in vivo approaches. Methods p38 kinase activity was evaluated in normal and OA cartilage cells by measuring the amount of phosphorylated protein. To examine the function of p38 signaling pathway in vitro, normal chondrocytes were isolated and differentiated in the presence or absence of p38 inhibitor; SB203580 and analysed for chondrogenic phenotype. Effect of systemic p38 MAPK inhibition in normal and OA (induced by menisectomy) rats were analysed by treating animals with vehicle alone (DMS0) or p38 inhibitor (SB203580). Damage to the femur and tibial plateau was evaluated by modified Mankin score, histology and immunohistochemistry. Results Our in vitro studies have revealed that a down-regulation of chondrogenic and increase of hypertrophic gene expression occurs in the normal chondrocytes, when p38 is neutralized by a pharmacological inhibitor. We further observed that the basal levels of p38 phosphorylation were decreased in OA chondrocytes compared with normal chondrocytes. These findings together indicate the importance of this pathway in the regulation of cartilage physiology and its relevance to OA pathogenesis. At in vivo level, systematic administration of a specific p38 MAPK inhibitor, SB203580, continuously for over a month led to a significant loss of proteoglycan; aggrecan and cartilage thickness. On the other hand, SB203580 treated normal rats showed a significant increase in TUNEL positive cells, cartilage hypertrophy markers such as Type 10 collagen, Runt-related transcription factor and Matrix metalloproteinase-13 and substantially induced OA like phenotypic changes in the normal rats. In addition, menisectomy induced OA rat models that were treated with p38 inhibitor showed aggravation of cartilage damage. Conclusions In summary, this study has provided evidence that the component of the p38 MAPK pathway is important to maintain the cartilage health and its inhibition can lead to severe cartilage degenerative changes. The observations in this study highlight the possibility of using activators of the p38 pathway as an alternative approach in the treatment of OA.

'Being-in-the-world-of-care' : the lived experiences of older people receiving community aged care packages in Queensland

It has been recognised in current literature that, in general, Australia’s population is ageing and that older people are increasingly choosing to continue to live in the community in their own homes for as long as possible. Such factors of social change are expected to lead to larger numbers of older people requiring community care services for longer periods. Despite this, there is little information available in the literature on the perceptions and experiences of older people regarding community-based care and support. This study explores the lived experience of a small group of older people living in South East Queensland who were receiving a level of care consistent with the Community Aged Care Package (CACP). It also sought to examine the impact and meaning of that care on the older person’s overall lifestyle, autonomy, and personal satisfaction. In-depth interviews were undertaken with these older people, and were analysed using Heidegger’s interpretive hermeneutical phenomenological approach. Shared narratives were then explored using Ricoeur’s narrative analysis framework. In order to sensitise the researcher to the unconscious or symbolic aspects of the care experience, Wolfensberger’s social role valorization theory (SRV) was also utilised during a third phase of analysis. Methodological rigour was strengthened within this study through the use of reflexivity and an in-depth member check discussion that was conducted with each participant. The interviews revealed there were significant differences in expectations, understanding, and perceptions between older people and their carers or service providers. The older person perceived care primarily in relational terms, and clearly preferred active participation in their care and a consistent relationship with a primary carer. Older people also sought to maintain their sense of autonomy, lifestyle, home environment, routines, and relationships, as closely as possible to those that existed prior to their requiring assistance. However, these expectations were not always supported by the care model. On the whole, service providers did not always understand what older people perceived was important within the care context. Carers seldom looked beyond the provision of assistance with specific daily tasks to consider the real impact of care on the older person. The study identified that older people reported a range of experiences when receiving care in their own homes. While some developed healthy and supportive connections with their carers, others experienced ageism, abuse, and exploitation. Unsatisfactory interactions at times resulted in a loss, to varying degrees, of their independence, their possessions, and their connectedness with others. There is therefore a need for service providers to pay more attention to the perceptions and self-perceived needs of older people, to avoid unintended or unnecessary negative impacts occurring within care provision. The study provides valuable information regarding the older person’s experience that will assist in supporting the further development and improvement of this model of care. It is proposed that these insights will enable CACPs to cater more closely to the actual needs and preferences of older people, and to avoid causing preventable harm to care recipients.

The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.