Spinning reserve and emission unit commitment through stochastic optimization

This paper proposes a stochastic mixed-integer linear approach to deal with a short-term unit commitment problem with uncertainty on a deregulated electricity market that includes day-ahead bidding and bilateral contracts. The proposed approach considers the typically operation constraints on the thermal units and a spinning reserve. The uncertainty is due to the electricity prices, which are modeled by a scenario set, allowing an acceptable computation. Moreover, emission allowances are considered in a manner to allow for the consideration of environmental constraints. A case study to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach is presented and an assessment of the cost for the spinning reserve is obtained by a comparison between the situation with and without spinning reserve.

The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

Burden of physical inactivity and hospitalization costs due to chronic diseases

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the physical inactivity-related inpatient costs of chronic non-communicable diseases. METHODS This study used data from 2013, from Brazilian Unified Health System, regarding inpatient numbers and costs due to malignant colon and breast neoplasms, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, hypertension, diabetes, and osteoporosis. In order to calculate the share physical inactivity represents in that, the physical inactivity-related risks, which apply to each disease, were considered, and physical inactivity prevalence during leisure activities was obtained from Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio (Brazil's National Household Sample Survey). The analysis was stratified by genders and residing country regions of subjects who were 40 years or older. The physical inactivity-related hospitalization cost regarding each cause was multiplied by the respective share it regarded to. RESULTS In 2013, 974,641 patients were admitted due to seven different causes in Brazil, which represented a high cost. South region was found to have the highest patient admission rate in most studied causes. The highest prevalences for physical inactivity were observed in North and Northeast regions. The highest inactivity-related share in men was found for osteoporosis in all regions (≈ 35.0%), whereas diabetes was found to have a higher share regarding inactivity in women (33.0% to 37.0% variation in the regions). Ischemic heart diseases accounted for the highest total costs that could be linked to physical inactivity in all regions and for both genders, being followed by cerebrovascular diseases. Approximately 15.0% of inpatient costs from Brazilian Unified Health System were connected to physical inactivity. CONCLUSIONS Physical inactivity significantly impacts the number of patient admissions due to the evaluated causes and through their resulting costs, with different genders and country regions representing different shares.

Extensible metadata repository for information systems

Thesis submitted to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Computer Science

Optimisation of paediatrics computed radiography for full spine curvature measurements using a phantom: a pilot study

Aim: Optimise a set of exposure factors, with the lowest effective dose, to delineate spinal curvature with the modified Cobb method in a full spine using computed radiography (CR) for a 5-year-old paediatric anthropomorphic phantom. Methods: Images were acquired by varying a set of parameters: positions (antero-posterior (AP), posteroanterior (PA) and lateral), kilo-voltage peak (kVp) (66-90), source-to-image distance (SID) (150 to 200cm), broad focus and the use of a grid (grid in/out) to analyse the impact on E and image quality (IQ). IQ was analysed applying two approaches: objective [contrast-to-noise-ratio/(CNR] and perceptual, using 5 observers. Monte-Carlo modelling was used for dose estimation. Cohen’s Kappa coefficient was used to calculate inter-observer-variability. The angle was measured using Cobb’s method on lateral projections under different imaging conditions. Results: PA promoted the lowest effective dose (0.013 mSv) compared to AP (0.048 mSv) and lateral (0.025 mSv). The exposure parameters that allowed lower dose were 200cm SID, 90 kVp, broad focus and grid out for paediatrics using an Agfa CR system. Thirty-seven images were assessed for IQ and thirty-two were classified adequate. Cobb angle measurements varied between 16°±2.9 and 19.9°±0.9. Conclusion: Cobb angle measurements can be performed using the lowest dose with a low contrast-tonoise ratio. The variation on measurements for this was ±2.9° and this is within the range of acceptable clinical error without impact on clinical diagnosis. Further work is recommended on improvement to the sample size and a more robust perceptual IQ assessment protocol for observers.

Optimization of bioplastics production from cheese whey

Dissertation presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Biotechnology

Reducing effective dose to a paediatric phantom by using different combinations of kVp, mAs and additional filtration whilst maintaining image quality

Purpose: To determine whether using different combinations of kVp and mAs with additional filtration can reduce the effective dose to a paediatric phantom whilst maintaining diagnostic image quality. Methods: 27 images of a paediatric AP pelvis phantom were acquired with different kVp, mAs and additional copper filtration. Images were displayed on quality controlled monitors with dimmed lighting. Ten diagnostic radiographers (5 students and 5 experienced radiographers) had eye tests to assess visual acuity before rating the images. Each image was rated for visual image quality against a reference image using 2 alternative forced choice software using a 5-point Likert scale. Physical measures (SNR and CNR) were also taken to assess image quality. Results: Of the 27 images rated, 13 of them were of acceptable image quality and had a dose lower than the image with standard acquisition parameters. Two were produced without filtration, 6 with 0.1mm and 5 with 0.2mm copper filtration. Statistical analysis found that the inter-rater and intra-rater reliability was high. Discussion: It is possible to obtain an image of acceptable image quality with a dose that is lower than published guidelines. There are some areas of the study that could be improved. These include using a wider range of kVp and mAs to give an exact set of parameters to use. Conclusion: Additional filtration has been identified as amajor tool for reducing effective dose whilst maintaining acceptable image quality in a 5 year old phantom.

Life expectancy without depression increases among Brazilian older adults

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate life expectancy with and without depressive symptoms in older adults for the years 2000 and 2010. METHODS We evaluated individuals aged 60 years or older (n = 1,862 in 2000 and n = 1,280 in 2010), participants of the Saúde, Bem-Estar e Envelhecimento (SABE – Health, Wellbeing and Aging) study in in Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. Depression was measured using the shorter version of the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15); respondents scoring ≥ 6 were classified as having depression. Estimates of life expectancy with and without depression were obtained using the Sullivan method. RESULTS Data from 2000 indicate that 60-year-old men could expect to live, on average, 14.7 years without depression and 60-year-old women could expect to live 16.5 years without depression. By 2010, life expectancy without depression had increased to 16.7 years for men and 17.8 years for women. Expected length of life with depression differed by sex, with women expected to live more years with depression than men. CONCLUSIONS Between 2000 and 2010, life expectancy without depression in Sao Paulo increased. However, older adults in Brazil, especially older women, still face a serious burden of mental illness.

Hand gesture recognition system based in computer vision and machine learning : applications on human-machine interaction

Sendo uma forma natural de interação homem-máquina, o reconhecimento de gestos implica uma forte componente de investigação em áreas como a visão por computador e a aprendizagem computacional. O reconhecimento gestual é uma área com aplicações muito diversas, fornecendo aos utilizadores uma forma mais natural e mais simples de comunicar com sistemas baseados em computador, sem a necessidade de utilização de dispositivos extras. Assim, o objectivo principal da investigação na área de reconhecimento de gestos aplicada à interacção homemmáquina é o da criação de sistemas, que possam identificar gestos específicos e usálos para transmitir informações ou para controlar dispositivos. Para isso as interfaces baseados em visão para o reconhecimento de gestos, necessitam de detectar a mão de forma rápida e robusta e de serem capazes de efetuar o reconhecimento de gestos em tempo real. Hoje em dia, os sistemas de reconhecimento de gestos baseados em visão são capazes de trabalhar com soluções específicas, construídos para resolver um determinado problema e configurados para trabalhar de uma forma particular. Este projeto de investigação estudou e implementou soluções, suficientemente genéricas, com o recurso a algoritmos de aprendizagem computacional, permitindo a sua aplicação num conjunto alargado de sistemas de interface homem-máquina, para reconhecimento de gestos em tempo real. A solução proposta, Gesture Learning Module Architecture (GeLMA), permite de forma simples definir um conjunto de comandos que pode ser baseado em gestos estáticos e dinâmicos e que pode ser facilmente integrado e configurado para ser utilizado numa série de aplicações. É um sistema de baixo custo e fácil de treinar e usar, e uma vez que é construído unicamente com bibliotecas de código. As experiências realizadas permitiram mostrar que o sistema atingiu uma precisão de 99,2% em termos de reconhecimento de gestos estáticos e uma precisão média de 93,7% em termos de reconhecimento de gestos dinâmicos. Para validar a solução proposta, foram implementados dois sistemas completos. O primeiro é um sistema em tempo real capaz de ajudar um árbitro a arbitrar um jogo de futebol robótico. A solução proposta combina um sistema de reconhecimento de gestos baseada em visão com a definição de uma linguagem formal, o CommLang Referee, à qual demos a designação de Referee Command Language Interface System (ReCLIS). O sistema identifica os comandos baseados num conjunto de gestos estáticos e dinâmicos executados pelo árbitro, sendo este posteriormente enviado para um interface de computador que transmite a respectiva informação para os robôs. O segundo é um sistema em tempo real capaz de interpretar um subconjunto da Linguagem Gestual Portuguesa. As experiências demonstraram que o sistema foi capaz de reconhecer as vogais em tempo real de forma fiável. Embora a solução implementada apenas tenha sido treinada para reconhecer as cinco vogais, o sistema é facilmente extensível para reconhecer o resto do alfabeto. As experiências também permitiram mostrar que a base dos sistemas de interação baseados em visão pode ser a mesma para todas as aplicações e, deste modo facilitar a sua implementação. A solução proposta tem ainda a vantagem de ser suficientemente genérica e uma base sólida para o desenvolvimento de sistemas baseados em reconhecimento gestual que podem ser facilmente integrados com qualquer aplicação de interface homem-máquina. A linguagem formal de definição da interface pode ser redefinida e o sistema pode ser facilmente configurado e treinado com um conjunto de gestos diferentes de forma a serem integrados na solução final.

Bertrand oligopoly when rivals' costs are unknown

We study a Bertrand oligopoly model with incomplete information about rivals' costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium of this game, the ex-ante expected profit and the ex-post profit of each firm. We see that, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.

Maximum-revenue tariff under Bertrand duopoly with unknown costs

This paper considers an international trade under Bertrand model with differentiated products and with unknown production costs. The home government imposes a specific import tariff per unit of imports from the foreign firm. We prove that this tariff is decreasing in the expected production costs of the foreign firm and increasing in the production costs of the home firm. Furthermore, it is increasing in the degree of product substitutability. We also show that an increase in the tariff results in both firms increasing their prices, an increase in both expected sales and expected profits for the home firm, and a decrease in both expected sales and expected profits for the foreign firm.

Bertrand and Cournot oligopolies when rivals' costs are unknown

We study Bertrand and Cournot oligopoly models with incomplete information about rivals’ costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian- Nash equilibrium of both games, the ex-ante expected profits and the ex-post profits of each firm. We see that, in the price competition, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.

Reliability and availability in reconfigurable computing: a basis for a common solution

Dynamically reconfigurable SRAM-based field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) enable the implementation of reconfigurable computing systems where several applications may be run simultaneously, sharing the available resources according to their own immediate functional requirements. To exclude malfunctioning due to faulty elements, the reliability of all FPGA resources must be guaranteed. Since resource allocation takes place asynchronously, an online structural test scheme is the only way of ensuring reliable system operation. On the other hand, this test scheme should not disturb the operation of the circuit, otherwise availability would be compromised. System performance is also influenced by the efficiency of the management strategies that must be able to dynamically allocate enough resources when requested by each application. As those resources are allocated and later released, many small free resource blocks are created, which are left unused due to performance and routing restrictions. To avoid wasting logic resources, the FPGA logic space must be defragmented regularly. This paper presents a non-intrusive active replication procedure that supports the proposed test methodology and the implementation of defragmentation strategies, assuring both the availability of resources and their perfect working condition, without disturbing system operation.

On international cost-sharing of pharmaceutical R&D

Ramsey pricing has been proposed in the pharmaceutical industry as a principle to price discriminate among markets while allowing to recover the (fixed) R&D cost. However, such analyses neglect the presence of insurance or the fund raising costs for most of drug reimbursement. By incorporating these new elements, we aim at providing some building blocks towards an economic theory incorporating Ramsey pricing and insurance coverage. We show how coinsurance affects the optimal prices to pay for the R&D investment. We also show that under certain conditions, there is no strategic incentive by governments to set coinsurance rates in order to shift the financial burden of R&D. This will have important implications to the application of Ramsey pricing principles to pharmaceutical products across countries.

Health care costs of domestic violence against women – evidence from Portugal

Our main objective is to estimate the additional health care costs to the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) due to domestic violence against women. We collected information through a survey addressed to health care centres’ female users. Both victims and non-victims of violence were inquired. We estimate costs according to five different groups – consultation costs, health care treatment and therapeutic costs, costs of complementary and diagnostic exams, drugs costs and transport costs. The estimations have been split into two perspectives – the NHS perspective (public perspective) and private perspective of inquired women (out of pocket payments). The timeframe of our calculations is one year, referring to all costs generated by domestic violence situations in the last twelve months. Essentially costs were estimated through the product of total number of episodes by the average estimated price per episode. Additionally, for the private costs, we also considered the costs originated by income losses, the opportunity cost of time spent on health care treatments and the work inability caused by sickness. The results suggest that the victims of domestic violence’s additional demand for health care is valued €140 per annum, that is about 22% higher than health care costs of non-victims. These results match those of similar studies for the United States, taking account of per capita differences in health care spending. A large proportion (90%) of the additional costs associated with domestic violence is supported by the NHS, where consultations and drugs are the most important contributors of such costs. Health consequences of domestic violence result from losses in quality of life and worst health status of victims and correspond to additional permanent economic costs of domestic violence episodes.