Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

REDUCING DIESEL DEPENDENCE IN NUNAVUT: INTEGRATING RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES THROUGH POLICY ACTIONS

In the last fifty years, Nunavut has developed a deep dependence on diesel for virtually all of its energy needs, including electricity. This dependence has created a number of economic, environmental and health related challenges in the territory, with an estimated 20% of the territory’s annual budget being spent on energy, thereby limiting the Government of Nunavut’s ability to address other essential infrastructure and societal needs, such as education, nutrition and health care and housing. One solution to address this diesel dependency is the use of renewable energy technologies (RETs), such as wind, solar and hydropower. As such, this thesis explores energy alternatives in Nunavut, and through RETScreen renewable energy simulations, found that solar power and wind power are technically viable options for Nunavut communities and a potentially successful means to offset diesel-generated electricity in Nunavut. However, through this analysis it was also discovered that accurate data or renewable resources are often unavailable for most Nunavut communities. Moreover, through qualitative open-ended interviews, the perspectives of Nunavut residents with regards to developing RETs in Nunavut were explored, and it was found that respondents generally supported the use of renewable energy in their communities, while acknowledging that there still remains a knowledge gap among residents regarding renewable energy, stemming from a lack of communication between the communities, government and the utility company. In addition, the perceived challenges, opportunities and gaps that exist with regards to renewable energy policy and program development were discussed with government policy-makers through further interviews, and it was discovered that often government departments work largely independently of each other rather than collaboratively, creating gaps and oversights in renewable energy policy in Nunavut. Combined, the results of this thesis were used to develop a number of recommended policy actions that could be undertaken by the territorial and federal government to support a shift towards renewable energy in order to develop a sustainable and self-sufficient energy plan in Nunavut. They include: gathering accurate renewable resource data in Nunavut; increasing community consultations on the subject of renewable energy; building strong partnerships with universities, colleges and industry; developing a knowledge sharing network; and finally increasing accessibility to renewable energy programs and policies in Nunavut.