Essays on emissions trading markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Spatially explicit estimates of N2O emissions from croplands suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved fertilizer management

Acknowledgements We are grateful to Stefan Seibert for advice on reconciling the Monfreda datasets of yield and area and the Portmann dataset for irrigated area of rice. We thank Deepak Ray and Jonathan Foley for helpful comments. Research support to J.G. K.C., N.M, and P.W. was primarily provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the Institute on Environment, with additional support from NSF Hydrologic Sciences grant 1521210 for N.M., and additional support to J.G. and P.W. whose efforts contribute to Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1). M.H. was supported by CSIRO's OCE Science Leaders Programme and the Agriculture Flagship. Funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2°C target

Peer reviewed

Table 2 & Appendix A. Properties of operations injecting CO2 into saline aquifers

The experience from CO2 injection at pilot projects (Frio, Ketzin, Nagaoka, US Regional Partnerships) and existing commercial operations (Sleipner, Snøhvit, In Salah, acid-gas injection) demonstrates that CO2 geological storage in saline aquifers is technologically feasible. Monitoring and verification technologies have been tested and demonstrated to detect and track the CO2 plume in different subsurface geological environments. By the end of 2008, approximately 20 Mt of CO2 had been successfully injected into saline aquifers by existing operations. Currently, the highest injection rate and total storage volume for a single storage operation are approximately 1 Mt CO2/year and 25 Mt, respectively. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is to be an effective option for decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, commercial-scale storage operations will require orders of magnitude larger storage capacity than accessed by the existing sites. As a result, new demonstration projects will need to develop and test injection strategies that consider multiple injection wells and the optimisation of the usage of storage space. To accelerate large-scale CCS deployment, demonstration projects should be selected that can be readily employed for commercial use; i.e. projects that fully integrate the capture, transport and storage processes at an industrial emissions source.

Air-sea fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory on the south-west coast of the UK

We present air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), momentum, and sensible heat measured by the eddy covariance method from the recently established Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory (PPAO) on the south-west coast of the United Kingdom. Measurements from the south-westerly direction (open water sector) were made at three different sampling heights (approximately 15, 18, and 27m above mean sea level, a.m.s.l.), each from a different period during 2014–2015. At sampling heights ≥18ma.m.s.l., measured fluxes of momentum and sensible heat demonstrate reasonable (≤ ±20% in the mean) agreement with transfer rates over the open ocean. This confirms the suitability of PPAO for air–sea exchange measurements in shelf regions. Covariance air–sea CO2 fluxes demonstrate high temporal variability. Air-to-sea transport of CO2 declined from spring to summer in both years, coinciding with the breakdown of the spring phytoplankton bloom. We report, to the best of our knowledge, the first successful eddy covariance measurements of CH4 emissions from a marine environment. Higher sea-to-air CH4 fluxes were observed during rising tides (20±3; 38±3; 29±6 μmolem-2 d-1 at 15, 18, 27ma.m.s.l.) than during falling tides (14±2; 22±2; 21±5 μmolem-2 d-1), consistent with an elevated CH4 source from an estuarine outflow driven by local tidal circulation. These fluxes are a few times higher than the predicted CH4 emissions over the open ocean and are significantly lower than estimates from other aquatic CH4 hotspots (e.g. polar regions, freshwater). Finally, we found the detection limit of the air–sea CH4 flux by eddy covariance to be 20 μmolem-2 d-1 over hourly timescales (4 μmolem-2 d-1 over 24 h).

Air-sea fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory on the south-west coast of the UK

We present air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), momentum, and sensible heat measured by the eddy covariance method from the recently established Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory (PPAO) on the south-west coast of the United Kingdom. Measurements from the south-westerly direction (open water sector) were made at three different sampling heights (approximately 15, 18, and 27m above mean sea level, a.m.s.l.), each from a different period during 2014–2015. At sampling heights ≥18ma.m.s.l., measured fluxes of momentum and sensible heat demonstrate reasonable (≤ ±20% in the mean) agreement with transfer rates over the open ocean. This confirms the suitability of PPAO for air–sea exchange measurements in shelf regions. Covariance air–sea CO2 fluxes demonstrate high temporal variability. Air-to-sea transport of CO2 declined from spring to summer in both years, coinciding with the breakdown of the spring phytoplankton bloom. We report, to the best of our knowledge, the first successful eddy covariance measurements of CH4 emissions from a marine environment. Higher sea-to-air CH4 fluxes were observed during rising tides (20±3; 38±3; 29±6 μmolem-2 d-1 at 15, 18, 27ma.m.s.l.) than during falling tides (14±2; 22±2; 21±5 μmolem-2 d-1), consistent with an elevated CH4 source from an estuarine outflow driven by local tidal circulation. These fluxes are a few times higher than the predicted CH4 emissions over the open ocean and are significantly lower than estimates from other aquatic CH4 hotspots (e.g. polar regions, freshwater). Finally, we found the detection limit of the air–sea CH4 flux by eddy covariance to be 20 μmolem-2 d-1 over hourly timescales (4 μmolem-2 d-1 over 24 h).

A Loop-mediated Isothermal Amplification Method for Rapid Direct Detection and Differentiation of Non-pathogenic and Verocytotoxigenic <i>Escherichia coli i>in Beef and Bovine Faeces

The aim of this study was to develop a multiplex loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) method capable of detecting <i>Escherichia coli i>generally and verocytotoxigenic <i>E. colii> (VTEC) specifically in beef and bovine faeces. The LAMP assay developed was highly specific (100%) and able to distinguish between <i>E. coli i>and VTEC based on the amplification of the phoA, and stx1 and/or stx2 genes, respectively. In the absence of an enrichment step, the limit of detection 50% (LOD50) of the LAMP assay was determined to be 2.83, 3.17 and 2.83-3.17 log CFU/g for <i>E. colii> with phoA, stx1 and stx2 genes, respectively, when artificially inoculated minced beef and bovine faeces were tested. The LAMP calibration curves generated with pure cultures, and spiked beef and faeces, suggested that the assay had good quantification capability. Validation of the assay, performed using retail beef and bovine faeces samples, demonstrated good correlation between counts obtained by the LAMP assay and by a conventional culture method, but suggested the possibility of false negative LAMP results for 12.5-14.7% of samples tested. The multiplex LAMP assay developed potentially represents a rapid alternative to culture for monitoring <i>E.colii> levels in beef or faeces and it would provide additional information on the presence of VTEC. However, some further optimisation is needed to improve detection sensitivity.

Non-take up i det svenska välfärdssystemet : Om betydelsen av social position för kvinnors beslut kring mammografiscreening

Non-take up in the Swedish welfare system: On the impact of social position on women’s decision-making regarding mammography screening Central to a well-functioning and effective welfare system is that benefits reach the people to whom they are intended. By focusing on an example of so called non-take up – namely women’s decision not to attend mammography screening – this article discusses decision making in relation to living conditions, i.e. social position, and to the public health intentions of the welfare state. The main theoretical basis for the analysis is Rogers’ humanistic/existential theory. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were made with 18 women who had abstained from mammography screening. Their decision was described, analyzed and problematized focused on whether their living conditions, leading to a strong or weak social position, is of relevance to their decision to refrain from this health promoting examination. The women’s own experiences clearly showed how their social position was of great importance for how they explained their decision to abstain. Furthermore, social position affects how women handle different impact from living conditions, society’s expectations and personal experiences of mammography screening. This study makes visible the gap between public health intentions of the society and individual conditions.  

Sviluppo di una fascia addominale per angiografia con CO2

La scelta del mezzo di contrasto in angiografia è rilevante e richiede un’attenta valutazione della qualità diagnostica delle immagini e degli effetti collaterali. Essenziale è analizzare il rischio che comporta l’utilizzo dei vari mezzi di contrasto a base di iodio, come ad esempio la nefropatia. Al contrario l’anidride carbonica, riconosciuta come unico agente di contrasto sicuro, sempre più, viene utilizzata in tutti i vasi del corpo al di sotto del diaframma. L'obiettivo principale di questo lavoro, svolto in collaborazione con l’azienda bolognese Angiodroid srl, è quello di realizzare un dispositivo medico in grado migliorare la qualità delle immagini ottenute con CO2 a livello addominale. Infatti, col recente utilizzo della CO2 anche nel distretto addominale si riduce drasticamente l’utilizzo di grandi quantità di iodio, ma, in molti pazienti, il movimento della aria intestinale che ha coefficiente di assorbimento simile all’anidride carbonica, rende l’immagine inefficiente. Il progetto consiste in una fascia addominale composta da tre camere d’aria gonfiabili manualmente, che comprimendo l’addome con pressioni di 120-180 mmHg, spostano l’aria e riducono il movimento intestinale, e quindi gli artefatti. L’uso di questa semplice fascia, migliorando le immagini dei distretti addominale e viscerale, potrebbe permettere una più rapida affermazione dell’angiografia con CO2 anche in procedure come EVAR e PTA iliache. Per individuare la procedura d’utilizzo più adeguata e migliorare il dispositivo secondo le necessità cliniche, la fascia è stata provata in alcune sale angiografiche dell’Emilia Romagna, Lombardia e Campania.

Membrane polimeriche per la separazione di gas e la cattura di CO2: effetto dell’invecchiamento e di plasticizzazione

I processi di separazione sono tra quelli che consumano più energia nelle nazioni maggiormente industrializzate, questo rende necessaria la ricerca continua di tecnologie e materiali che siano in grado di aumentarne l’efficienza. Uno dei principali campi di studio di questa ricerca riguarda la separazione di gas, in cui le membrane polimeriche si candidano come principale alternativa innovativa ai metodi classici. Questo lavoro di tesi mira all’analisi delle variabili che governano il trasposto di gas attraverso membrane polimeriche di tipo vetroso, alla comprensione dei fenomeni destabilizzanti quali aging e plasticizzazione in termini di cause ed effetti e alla primaria rielaborazione dei dati di letteratura relativi agli stessi fenomeni per verificare analiticamente quanto studiato nella parte precedente. Per fare ciò, operativamente, ci si è serviti del supporto di articoli scientifici che trattano il tema, andando ad estrapolare dati e informazioni rilevanti e delle indicazioni del professor Minelli che da anni è impegnato nella ricerca su questi materiali. Dopo una prima parte introduttiva riguardante le tecnologie a membrana e le loro applicazioni, si passa allo studio approfondito della teoria e alla discussione dei due fenomeni, ai quali viene dedicato un capitolo ciascuno per capirne nel dettaglio le implicazioni che comportano nell’utilizzo di tecnologie a membrane polimeriche. Nella rielaborazione ci si sofferma poi sui film sottili, nell’ordine del micron, che corrispondo alle dimensioni tipiche delle membrane utilizzate per la separazione di gas. Ci si focalizza su miscele contenenti anidride carbonica, gas di estremo interesse sia perché è uno dei maggiori contributori al fenomeno del surriscaldamento globale, sia perché è uno dei principali responsabili della plasticizzazione di un polimero, per via della sua buona solubilità. Si conclude l’elaborato con una breve analisi sulle possibili contromisure riguardanti aging e plasticizzazione.

Studio di membrane a base di liquidi ionici per il trasporto facilitato di CO2

In questo lavoro viene effettuata un’analisi di membrane per la separazione di CO2 basate sul meccanismo di trasporto facilitato. Queste membrane sono caratterizzate da un supporto poroso impregnato di una fase liquida le cui proprietà chimico-fisiche vengono presentate in relazione alle performance di separazione fornite: si tratta di liquidi ionici che presentano gruppi funzionali in grado di reagire con la CO2 consentendo il trasporto facilitato del gas acido attraverso la membrana. Le prestazioni in termini di separazione di CO2 da miscele gas fornite da questa tecnologia vengono analizzate e confrontate con quelle offerte da altre tipologie di membrane: alcune basate sul meccanismo di solution-diffusion (membrane polimeriche e membrane impregnate di liquidi ionici room-temperature) ed altre caratterizzate da permeazione di CO2 con presenza di reazione chimica ottenuta mediante facilitatori (mobili o legati allo scheletro carbonioso del polimero costituente la membrana). I risultati ottenuti sono analizzati in merito alla possibile implementazione di tale sistema di separazione a membrana in processi di cattura di CO2 nell'ambito della tecnologia di Carbon Capture and Storage.

Don’t expect me to vote for you just because I like you, even if you do make me feel warm inside: a comparison of the validity of non-ipsative measures of party support

The inclusion of non-ipsative measures of party preference (in essence ratings for each of the parties of a political system) has become established practice in mass surveys conducted for election studies. They exist in different forms, known as thermometer ratings or feeling scores, likes and dislikes scores, or support propensities. Usually only one of these is included in a single survey, which makes it difficult to assess the relative merits of each. The questionnaire of the Irish National Election Study 2002 (INES2002) contained three different batteries of non-ipsative party preferences. This paper investigates some of the properties of these different indicators. We focus in particular on two phenomena. First, the relationship between non-ipsative preferences and the choices actually made on the ballot. In Ireland this relationship is more revealing than in most other countries owing to the electoral system (STV) which allows voters to cast multiple ordered votes for candidates from different parties. Second, we investigate the latent structure of each of the batteries of party preferences and the relationships between them. We conclude that the three instruments are not interchangeable, that they measure different orientations, and that one –the propensity to vote for a party– is by far preferable if the purpose of the study is the explanation of voters’ actual choice behaviour. This finding has important ramifications for the design of election study questionnaires.

Downstream emissions of CH4 and CO2 from hydroelectric reservoirs (Tucuruí, Samuel, and Curuá-Una) in the Amazon basin.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) generated in reservoirs are released downstream of dams, and few studies have considered these downstream emissions. Fluxes downstream of 3 Amazon hydroelectric reservoirs (Tucuruí, Samuel, and Curuá-Una) are reported here. Degassing through turbines was calculated as the difference between intake and outflow concentrations. Additional releases along the Tocantins, Jamari, and Curuá rivers were measured at were liberated at the turbine outflow. The total downstream emissions are sufficiently large to require consideration in assessments of greenhouse gas emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs.

Galvanic corrosion of two non noble dental alloys

Artigo licenciado sob uma Licença Creative Commons: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Applications for CO2-Activated Carbon Monoliths: I. Gas Storage

Carbon monoliths with high densities are studied as adsorbents for the storage of H2, CH4, and CO2 at ambient temperature and high pressures. The starting monolith A3 (produced by ATMI Co.) was activated under a CO2 flow at 1073 K, applying different activation times up to 48 h. Micropore volumes and apparent surface areas were deduced from N2 and CO2 adsorption isotherms at 77 K and 273 K, respectively. CO2 and CH4 isotherms were measured up to 3 MPa and H2 up to 20 MPa. The BET surface area of the starting monolith (941 m2/g) could be significantly increased up to 1586 m2/g, and the developed porosity is almost exclusively comprised of micropores <1 nm. Total storage amounts take into account the compressed gas in the void space of the material, in addition to the adsorbed gas. Remarkably, high total storage amounts are reached for CO2 (482 g/L), CH4 (123 g/L), and H2 (18 g/L). These values are much higher than for other sorbents with similar surface areas, due to the high density of the starting monolith and of the activated ones, for which the density decreases only slightly (from 1.0 g/cm3 to 0.8 g /cm3 upon CO2 activation). The findings reveal the suitability of high density activated carbon monoliths for gas storage application. Thus, the amounts of stored gas can be increased by more than a 70 % in the case of H2 at 20 MPa, almost 5.5 times in the case of CH4 at 3 MPa, and more than 7.5 times in the case of CO2 at 3 MPa when adsorbents are used for gas storage under the investigated conditions rather than simple compression. Furthermore, the obtained results have been recently confirmed by a scale-up study in which 2.64 kg of high density monolith adsorbent was filled a tank cylinder of 2.5 L (Carbon, 76, 2014, 123).