Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

RT-PCR-ELISA for detection of Apple stem grooving virus in apple trees

A method to detect Apple stem grooving virus (ASGV) based on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was developed using primers ASGV4F-ASGV4R targeting the viral replicase gene, followed by a sandwich hybridisation, in microtiter plates, for colorimetric detection of the PCR products. The RT-PCR was performed with the Titan™ RT-PCR system, using AMV and diluted crude extracts of apple (Malus domestica) leaf or bark for the first strand synthesis and a mixture of Taq and PWO DNA polymerase for the PCR step. The RT-PCR products is hybridised with both a biotin-labelled capture probe linked to a streptavidin-coated microtiter plate and a digoxigenin (DIG)-labelled detection probe. The complex was detected with an anti-DIG conjugate labelled with alkaline phosphatase. When purified ASGV was added to extracts of plant tissue, as little as 400 fg of the virus was detected with this method. The assay with ASGV4F-ASGV4R primers specifically detected the virus in ASGV-infected apple trees from different origins, whereas no signal was observed with amplification products obtained with primers targeting the coat protein region of the ASGV genome or with primers specific for Apple chlorotic leaf spot virus (ACLSV) and Apple stem pitting virus (ASPV). The technique combines the power of PCR to increase the number of copies of the targeted gene, the specificity of DNA hybridization, and the ease of colorimetric detection and sample handling in microplates.

Three new pathogens infecting antilles cherry in the State of Pará

When grown in monoculture, Antilles cherry (Malpighia glabra) plants have been affected by diseases which cause fruits malformation and spotting, reducing their value for market. From 1999 on, three new diseases characterised by leaf spot and fall of leaves have been observed in plantations located in Santa Izabel do Pará and Igarapé Açu counties. After isolation and pathogenicity tests on leaves of Antilles cherry plants, the isolates were identified as Calonectria ilicicola (anamorph: Cylindrocladium parasiticum) which causes large leaf spots reaching up to 7 cm long, brownish in colour, coalescent, scorching large leaf areas and causing 50% of leaf fall; Corynespora cassiicola, which provokes irregularly shaped, necrotic leaf spots with dark brown margins and white centers, surrounded by a yellow halo; and Myrothecium roridum which causes greyish target spots. Corynespora cassiicola has been reported causing leaf spots on different hosts in the Amazon region, while C. cassiicola has been recorded infecting Antilles cherry besides other hosts in the States of Maranhão and Pará.

Ocorrência de Bipolaris maydis causando mancha foliar em Paspalum atratum cv. Pojuca no Brasil

Bipolaris maydis was consistently isolated from infected Paspalum atratum cv. Pojuca plants showing leaf spot symptoms in the Cerrado of Brazil, in 2002. Pathogenicity tests under greenhouse conditions and subsequent reisolations of B. maydis from artificially inoculated Pojuca seedlings confirmed the hypothesis that this fungus was the causal agent of the disease. Symptoms of leaf spot appeared four days after inoculation in 100% of the inoculated Pojuca plants. All seven species of grasses evaluated were susceptible to B. maydis. The occurrence of leaf spot of Pojuca caused by B. maydis is reported for the first time in Brazil.

Quantitative analysis of two important epidemiological features of the common bean: Phaeoisariopsis griseola pathosystem

This work quantifies two important epidemiological features of the bean (Phaseolus vulgaris)/Phaeoisariopsis griseola pathosystem. The first is the effect of the number of nights of leaf wetness on infection efficiency. Infection efficiency was below 10% when inoculated leaflets were exposed to less than two nights of leaf wetness. Optimum infection efficiencies were obtained after three to four nights of leaf wetness, at about 50%. Further nights of leaf wetness did not increase the infection efficiency. The second feature quantified is the relative rate of leaflet defoliation for varying levels of angular leaf spot severity. It increased with disease severity according to a logarithm-like curve, and a relative rate of 0.23 day-1 was estimated for a severity of 18%. The implications of these results on the disease epidemiology are discussed.

Silicon and rice disease management

The element silicon (Si) is not considered an essential nutrient for plant function. Nevertheless, Si is absorbed from soil in large amounts that are several fold higher than those of other essential macronutrients in certain plant species. Its beneficial effects have been reported in various situations, especially under biotic and abiotic stress conditions. The most significant effect of Si on plants, besides improving their fitness in nature and increasing agricultural productivity, is the restriction of parasitism. There has been a considerable amount of research showing the positive effect of Si in controlling diseases in important crops. Rice (Oryza sativa), in particular, is affected by the presence of Si, with diseases such as blast, brown spot and sheath blight becoming more severe on rice plants grown in Si-depleted soils. The hypothesis underlying the control of some diseases in both mono- and di-cots by Si has been confined to that of a mechanical barrier resulting from its polymerization in planta. However, some studies show that Si-mediated resistance against pathogens is associated with the accumulation of phenolics and phytoalexins as well as with the activation of some PR-genes. These findings strongly suggest that Si plays an active role in the resistance of some plants to diseases rather than forming a physical barrier that impedes penetration by fungal pathogens.

A Semi-Selective agar medium to detect the presence of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum in naturally infected cotton seed

A semi-selective agar medium was developed for detection of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum (Xam) in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) seed. The basic medium was peptone-sucrose-agar (PSA). Criteria for the semi-selective medium were the typical colony characters of Xam and its pathogenicity on cotton. Several systemic fungicides and antibiotics in different concentrations were tested alone or in combination with others. The final composition of the semi-selective agar medium was established after several attempts in order to inhibit most of the fungal and bacterial saprophytes and favour the development of Xam. It contained PSA + cyclohexamide, cephalexin, pencycuron, triadimenol and tolylfluanid. The bacteria were recovered from naturally infected seeds by the direct plating of 2,000 surface disinfected seeds on the semi-selective medium. The recovery of the pathogen from naturally infected leaf tissues and in dilution plating, on semi-selective medium and on nutrient agar, were comparable. Among the three detection methods tested, the semi-selective medium was found to be the most reliable and quantifiable. Degree of severity of angular leaf spot in the field was not always correlated with the level of infection in the seed. This is the first report of a semi-selective agar medium to detect the presence of Xam in naturally infected cotton seed.

Effect of extracts from citric biomass, rusted coffee leaves and coffee berry husks on Phoma costarricencis of coffee plants

Phoma leaf spot, caused by Phoma costarricensis poses a serious threat to coffee (Coffea arabica) production, especially in the highlands of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Extracts of citric biomass, coffee berry husks and coffee leaves severely affected by rust caused by Hemileia vastatrix, were evaluated against P. costarricensis. In an in vitro assay, aqueous extracts of rusted leaves and berry husks plus the commercial extracts based on citric biomass named Ecolife® and Agromil® were tested at various dilutions on the mycelial growth inhibition of P. costarricensis. In vivo, coffee seedlings maintained in glasshouse, were sprayed with these extracts seven days before inoculation of P. costarricensis. Only extracts from citric biomass had inhibitory effects on the fungus. In vivo, Ecolife® (5 ml/l), Agromil® (5 g/l) and the aqueous extract of rusted coffee leaves (dilution 1:6) reduced Phoma leaf spot. Both, Ecolife® and the extract of rusted coffee leaves were significantly more effective in reducing the area under the lesion progress curve when applied at lower doses, indicating a possible effect on the induction of resistance.

Hipersensibilidade e necrose sistêmica em Nicotiana benthamiana transformada com o gene de resistência Sw-5 de tomateiro

O gene Sw-5 do tomateiro confere resistência a várias espécies de tospovírus e codifica uma proteína contendo domínios de ligação a nucleotídeos e repetições ricas em leucina. Tomateiros com Sw-5 exibem reações necróticas nas folhas inoculadas com tospovírus. Estas reações e a estrutura da proteína Sw-5 indicam que a resistência ocorre por meio do reconhecimento do patógeno e desencadeamento da resposta de hipersensibilidade. A capacidade de Sw-5 de conferir resistência a tospovírus em tabaco selvagem (Nicotiana benthamiana Domin.) foi avaliada em plantas transgênicas. Uma construção com a seqüência aberta de leitura de Sw-5 e sua região 3’ não-traduzida sob controle do promotor 35S do CaMV foi utilizada para transformação de N. benthamiana via Agrobacterium tumefaciens. Plantas de progênies R1 foram inoculadas com um isolado de tospovírus e avaliadas quanto à ocorrência de reação de hipersensibilidade e resistência à infecção sistêmica. Em uma progênie com segregação 3:1 (resistente:suscetível), foi selecionada uma planta homozigota e sua progênie avaliada quanto ao espectro da resistência a tospovírus. Plantas com o transgene exibiram resposta de hipersensibilidade 48 h após a inoculação, sendo resistentes à infecção sistêmica. O fenótipo da resistência foi dependente do isolado viral e um isolado de Tomato chlorotic spot virus (TCSV) causou necrose sistêmica em todas as plantas inoculadas, enquanto que isolados de Groundnut ringspot virus (GRSV) e um isolado relacionado a Chrysanthemum stem necrosis virus (CSNV) ficaram restritos ao sítio de infecção. Comparações do espectro da resistência obtido neste trabalho com aquele observado em outros membros da família Solanaceae indicam que as vias de transdução de sinais e as respostas de defesa ativadas por Sw-5 são conservadas dentro desta família e polimorfismos genéticos nas vias de transdução de sinais ou em componentes das respostas de defesa podem resultar em diferentes níveis de resistência.

Critical-point yield model to estimate yield damage caused by Cercospora zea-maydis in corn

A model to estimate damage caused by gray leaf spot of corn (Cercospora zea-maydis) was developed from experimental field data gathered during the summer seasons of 2000/01 and during the second crop season [January-seedtime] of 2001, in the southwest of Goiás state. Three corn hybrids were grown over two seasons and on two sites, resulting in 12 experimental plots. A disease intensity gradient (lesions per leaf) was generated through application, three times over the season, of five different doses of the fungicide propiconazol. From tasseling onward, disease intensity on the ear leaf (El), and El - 1, El - 2, El + 1, and El + 2, was evaluated weekly. A manual harvest at the physiological ripening stage was followed by grain drying and cleaning. Finally, grain yield in kg.ha-1 was estimated. Regression analysis, performed between grain yield and all combinations of the number of lesions on each leaf type, generated thirty linear equations representing the damage function. To estimate losses caused by different disease intensities at different corn growth stages, these models should first be validated. Damage coefficients may be used in determining the economic damage threshold.

Determination of hydrochlorothiazide in pharmaceutical formulations by diffuse reflectance spectroscopy

This paper describes a method for quantitative spot test analysis of hydrochlorothiazide using diffuse reflectance spectroscopy. The reflectance measurements were performed analyzing the colored compound (l = 585 nm) produced from the reaction between hydrochlorothiazide and p-dimethylaminocinnamaldehyde (PDAC) in acid medium. This reaction occurred on filter paper after heating to 80ºC for 8 minutes. Factorial designs allowed varying multiple reaction factors simultaneously in order to obtain the best reaction conditions. These factors included heating temperature, heating time, acid volume and PDAC volume. The linearity was studied in the range of 3.36x10-2 to 1.01x10-1 mol L-1 with a correlation coefficient of 0.998. The limit of detection was estimated to be 1.32x10² mol L-1. Commercial samples were analyzed using the proposed method and the results were favorably compared with those of the United States Pharmacopeia method, showing that quantitative spot test analysis by diffuse reflectance could be successfully used to determine hydrochlorothiazide in medicines.

Pseudomonas syringae pv. tabaci in papaya seedlings

The natural occurrence of Pseudomonas syringae pv. tabaci causing leaf spot symptoms in papaya seedlings is reported. The pathogen was identified through biochemical, physiological, serological, and molecular assays and artificial inoculations in papaya plants. It was also shown that the strains were pathogenic to bean and tobacco plants. The restriction patterns obtained with Afa I, Alu I, Dde I, Hae III, Hpa II, Hinf I, Sau 3A I and Taq I of the PCR-RFLP of 16S-23S DNAr were identical to the P. s. pv. tabaci patterns. Primers corresponding to hrpL gene of P. syringae were also tested and the results grouped the papaya strains with P s. pv. tabaci. Bacterial strains were deposited at Coleção de Culturas IBSBF, Instituto Biológico, Campinas, Brazil, under access numbers 1687 and 1822.

Sähköautojen pikalatauksen verkkovaikutukset

Euroopan unionin energiapolitiikka on luonut paineen parantaa energiatehokkuutta kaikilla energiankäytön aloilla. Merkittävä osa energiasta kulutetaan liikenteessä, joten sähköautojen käyttöönotolla voidaan parantaa energiatehokkuutta merkittävästi. Tämän vuoksi on tarkasteltava sähköautojen laajamittaisen levinneisyyden aiheuttamia vaikutuksia sähköverkolle. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan sähköautojen pikalatauksen verkkovaikutuksia. Tarkastelu painottuu kotilatauksen tarkasteluun taajamissa ja maaseudulla. Kuormituksen kasvu simuloidaan hyödyntäen sähköauton lataukselle laskettua kuormituskäyrää, jonka laskenta perustuu keskimääräiseen henkilöauton liikkumiseen, joka on saatavilla Suomen henkilöliikennetutkimuksesta. Simuloinnin tulosten perusteella sähköauton pikalatauksen verkkovaikutukset ovat merkittäviä keskijänniteverkossa ja pienjänniteverkossa. Suuremmat vaikutukset kohdistuvat pienjänniteverkkoon.

Elemental analysis of wood materials by external millibeam thick target PIXE

PIXE (Particle Induce X-ray Emission spectrometry) was used for analysing stem bark and stem wood of Scots pine, Norway spruce and Silver birch. Thick samples were irradiated, in laboratory atmosphere, with 3 MeV protons and the beam current was measured indirectly using a photo multiplicator (PM) tube. Both point scans and bulk analyses were performed with the 1 mm diameter proton beam. In bulk analyses, whole bark and sectors of discs of the stem wood were dry ashed at 550 ˚C. The ashes were homogenised by shaking and prepared to target pellets for PIXE analyses. This procedure generated representative samples to be analysed, but the enrichment also enabled quantification of some additional trace elements. The ash contents obtained as a product of the sample preparation procedure also showed to be of great importance in the evaluation of results in environmental studies. Spot scans from the pith of pine wood outwards, showed clearly highest concentrations of manganese, calcium and zinc in the first spot irradiated, or 2-3 times higher than in the surrounding wood. For stem wood from the crown part of a pine this higher concentration level was found in the first four spots/mms, including the pith and the two following growth rings. Zinc showed increasing concentrations outwards in sapwood of the pine stem, with the over-all lowest concentrations in the inner half of the sapwood. This could indicate emigration of this element from sapwood being under transformation to heartwood. Point scans across sapwood of pine and spruce showed more distinct variations in concentrations relative to hearth wood. Higher concentrations of e.g. zinc, calcium and manganese were found in earlywood than in denser latewood. Very high concentrations of iron and copper were also seen for some earlywood increments. The ash content of stem bark is up to and order higher than for the stem wood. However, when the elemental concentration in ashes of bark and wood of the same disc were compared, these are very similar – this when trees are growing at spots with no anthropogenic contamination from the atmosphere. The largest difference was obtained for calcium which appeared at two times high concentrations in ashes of bark than in ashes of the wood (ratio of 2). Pine bark is often used in monitoring of atmospheric pollution, where concentrations in bark samples are compared. Here an alternative approach is suggested: Bark and the underlying stem wood of a pine trees are dry ashed and analysed. The elemental concentration in the bark ash is then compared to the concentration of the same element in the wood ash. Comparing bark to wood includes a normalisation for the varying availability of an element from the soil at different sites. When this comparison is done for the ashes of the materials, a normalisation is also obtained for the general and locally different enrichment of inorganic elements from wood to bark. Already a ratio >2 between the concentration in the bark ash and the concentration in the wood ash could indicate atmospheric pollution. For monitoring where bark is used, this way of “inwards” comparison is suggested - instead of comparing to results from analyses of bark from other trees (read reference areas), growing at sites with different soil and, locally, different climate conditions. This approach also enables evaluation of atmospheric pollution from sampling of only relative few individual trees –preferable during forest felling.

Anatomia de lesões foliares causadas pelo vírus da Mancha Clorótica do Clerodendrum, transmitido pelo ácaro Brevipalpus phoenicis em diferentes espécies

O gênero botânico Clerodendrum pertence à família Lamiaceae e compreende várias espécies ornamentais, Manchas cloróticas e necróticas em folhas de coração-sangrento foram observadas pela primeira vez em um jardim de Piracicaba, SP, associadas à infestação com Brevipalpus phoenicis (Acari: Tenuipalpidae). Exames de secções de tecidos das lesões foliares ao microscópio eletrônico revelaram ocorrência de efeitos citopáticos do tipo nuclear e concluiu-se que os sintomas eram causados por um vírus transmitido por Brevipalpus (VTB), o qual foi designado de mancha clorótica de Clerodendrum (Clerodendrum Chlorotic Spot Virus- ClCSV). O ClCSV é transmitido mecanicamente de coração-sangrento para coração-sangrento. Em ensaios preliminares foi transmitido por B. phoenicis e mecanicamente para várias outras plantas, além da ocorrência de sua disseminação natural por este ácaro para outras espécies. Visando complementar a caracterização do ClCSV foram feitos estudos sobre alterações anatômicas em folhas de plantas infectadas pelo ClCSV. Foram examinadas secções histológicas de folhas sadias e infectadas pelo ClCSV de C. x speciosum e de outras hospedeiras como Hibiscus schizopetalus, Salvia leucantha, Malvaviscus arboreus e Annona muricata. Constatou-se que o ClCSV causa alterações celulares semelhantes nas diferentes hospedeiras e os sintomas causados por este vírus são similares aos causados por outros vírus transmitidos por Brevipalpus como o vírus da leprose dos citros citoplasmático (Citrus Lepros Virus Cytoplasmic- CiLV-C) e nuclear (Citrus Leprosis Virus Nuclear- CiLV-N), mancha anular do cafeeiro (Coffee Ringspot Virus- CoRSV), mancha anular de Solanum violaefolium (Solanum violaefolium Ringspot Virus- SvRSV) e "Orchid Fleck Vírus" (OFV), representadas por hipertrofia e hiperplasia frequentemente acompanhadas de necrose nos tecidos do parênquima paliçádico e lacunoso.