Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Qualitative social differentiation in tertiary education in Spain

[cat] En aquest treball, s'estudia si la hipòtesi de la desigualtat efectivament mantinguda “effectively maintained inequality” es cumpleix a Espanya. Es postula que en les transicions terciàries a Espanya, les influències dels pares no es manifesten tant a través de la probabilitat de fer la transició, sinó més aviat a través de les diferències qualitatives associades a aquesta transició en termes de les qualitats dels programes educatius. Analitzem dues característiques qualitatives dels estudis universitaris: la durada del programa i el seu prestigi acadèmic. Identifiquem per a quins individus la influència parental és més important en cada cas.

Two-dimensional probabilistic inversion of plane-wave electromagnetic data: Methodology, model constraints and joint inversion with electrical resistivity data

Probabilistic inversion methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are well suited to quantify parameter and model uncertainty of nonlinear inverse problems. Yet, application of such methods to CPU-intensive forward models can be a daunting task, particularly if the parameter space is high dimensional. Here, we present a 2-D pixel-based MCMC inversion of plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) data. Using synthetic data, we investigate how model parameter uncertainty depends on model structure constraints using different norms of the likelihood function and the model constraints, and study the added benefits of joint inversion of EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. Our results demonstrate that model structure constraints are necessary to stabilize the MCMC inversion results of a highly discretized model. These constraints decrease model parameter uncertainty and facilitate model interpretation. A drawback is that these constraints may lead to posterior distributions that do not fully include the true underlying model, because some of its features exhibit a low sensitivity to the EM data, and hence are difficult to resolve. This problem can be partly mitigated if the plane-wave EM data is augmented with ERT observations. The hierarchical Bayesian inverse formulation introduced and used herein is able to successfully recover the probabilistic properties of the measurement data errors and a model regularization weight. Application of the proposed inversion methodology to field data from an aquifer demonstrates that the posterior mean model realization is very similar to that derived from a deterministic inversion with similar model constraints.

Qualitative social differentiation in tertiary education in Spain

[cat] En aquest treball, s'estudia si la hipòtesi de la desigualtat efectivament mantinguda “effectively maintained inequality” es cumpleix a Espanya. Es postula que en les transicions terciàries a Espanya, les influències dels pares no es manifesten tant a través de la probabilitat de fer la transició, sinó més aviat a través de les diferències qualitatives associades a aquesta transició en termes de les qualitats dels programes educatius. Analitzem dues característiques qualitatives dels estudis universitaris: la durada del programa i el seu prestigi acadèmic. Identifiquem per a quins individus la influència parental és més important en cada cas.

The Achieved Dreams of a Neighborhood

This article explains the social transformation process initiated at the end of the 1970s within the neighborhood of La Verneda-Sant Martı´ in Barcelona. This process started with the foundation of an adult education center that was organized as a Learning Community (the first one in the world). From the beginning, it was administered for and by the community. It became a space of debate where the demands and dreams of the neighbors converged about transforming their neighborhood along with the recommendations of the international scientific community. Twenty years later, the dreams came true: There have been substantial improvements throughout the urban space, infrastructures, housing, urban thoroughfares, and public highways. The INCLUD-ED European project, using the communicative methodology of research, has thoroughly studied the transformation carried out in the La Verneda-Sant Martı´ Adult School and its neighborhood. INCLUD-ED has identified successful practices within diverse social areas that are transferable to other contexts and contribute to overcoming inequalities and improving the most underprivileged neighborhoods.

An innovative and shared methodology for event reconstruction using images in forensic science

This study presents an innovative methodology for forensic science image analysis for event reconstruction. The methodology is based on experiences from real cases. It provides real added value to technical guidelines such as standard operating procedures (SOPs) and enriches the community of practices at stake in this field. This bottom-up solution outlines the many facets of analysis and the complexity of the decision-making process. Additionally, the methodology provides a backbone for articulating more detailed and technical procedures and SOPs. It emerged from a grounded theory approach; data from individual and collective interviews with eight Swiss and nine European forensic image analysis experts were collected and interpreted in a continuous, circular and reflexive manner. Throughout the process of conducting interviews and panel discussions, similarities and discrepancies were discussed in detail to provide a comprehensive picture of practices and points of view and to ultimately formalise shared know-how. Our contribution sheds light on the complexity of the choices, actions and interactions along the path of data collection and analysis, enhancing both the researchers' and participants' reflexivity.

Informing patients about limits to confidentiality: A qualitative study in prisons.

AIM: Confidentiality is important in healthcare practice, however, under certain circumstances, confidentiality is breached. In this paper, mental health professionals' (MHPs) practices related to informing imprisoned patients about confidentiality and its limits are presented. METHODS: Twenty-four MHPs working in Swiss prisons were interviewed. Data analysis involved qualitative thematic coding and was validated by discussing results with external experts and study participants. RESULTS: For expert evaluations and court-ordered therapies, participants informed patients that information revealed during these consultations is not bound by confidentiality rules. The practice of routinely informing patients about confidentiality and its limits became more complex in voluntary therapies, for which participants described four approaches and provided justifications in favour of or against their use. CONCLUSIONS: Further training and continued education are needed to improve physicians' ethical and legal knowledge about confidentiality disclosures. In order to promote ethical practices, it is important to understand and address existing motivations, attitudes and behaviours that impede appropriate patient information. Our study adds important new knowledge about the limits to confidentiality, particularly for providers working with vulnerable populations. Results from this study reflect typical ethical and practical dilemmas faced by and of interest to physicians working in forensic medicine and other related settings.

Standardized evaluation methodology and reference database for evaluating IVUS image segmentation

This paper describes an evaluation framework that allows a standardized and quantitative comparison of IVUS lumen and media segmentation algorithms. This framework has been introduced at the MICCAI 2011 Computing and Visualization for (Intra)Vascular Imaging (CVII) workshop, comparing the results of eight teams that participated. We describe the available data-base comprising of multi-center, multi-vendor and multi-frequency IVUS datasets, their acquisition, the creation of the reference standard and the evaluation measures. The approaches address segmentation of the lumen, the media, or both borders; semi- or fully-automatic operation; and 2-D vs. 3-D methodology. Three performance measures for quantitative analysis have been proposed. The results of the evaluation indicate that segmentation of the vessel lumen and media is possible with an accuracy that is comparable to manual annotation when semi-automatic methods are used, as well as encouraging results can be obtained also in case of fully-automatic segmentation. The analysis performed in this paper also highlights the challenges in IVUS segmentation that remains to be solved.

Implementing IAS 2 and IAS 36. Case: Eimo Oyj

Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli tutkia IFRS -standardiston vaikutuksia esimerkkiyrityksessä. Tutkimuksen kohteena olivat varastot sekä omaisuuserien arvonalentuminen. Varastojen käsittelyn osalta työn tarkoituksena oli luoda malli valmistuksen yleismenojen aktivointia varten. Omaisuuserien arvonalentumista koskevassa osassa tarkoituksena oli selvittää arvonalentumistestauksen tärkeimmät vaiheet sekä ehdottaa rahavirtaa kerryttäviä yksiköitä esimerkkiyritykselle. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on laadullinen case-tutkimus. Empiiristä tutkimustietoa kerätään osallistuvan havainnoinnin, haastattelujen ja keskustelujen avulla. Tutkimuksen tuloksena todettiin, että IFRS -standardien vaikutukset ovat laajasti koko esimerkkiyritystä koskevia. Varastoja koskevassa osassa todettiin, että valmistuksen yleismenot tulee allokoida muovitehtaille ruiskupuristustuntien perusteella ja muottitehtaille miestyötuntien perusteella. Omaisuuserien arvonalentumista koskien todettiin liiketoiminnan nopeasti muuttuvan luonteen vaikeuttavan ennusteiden laatimista. Rahavirtaa kerryttäviksi yksiköiksi ehdotettiin tehdastasoa.

Características y funciones para marcas de lugar a partir de un método Delphi

[ES] Introducción. La representación de territorios mediante el uso de marcas es una cuestión recurrente en la sociedad contemporánea que vivimos. Este artículo tiene por objetivo principal determinar algunas de las características y funciones que presentan las marcas asociadas a espacios geográficos. Metodología. Se ha optado por una investigación cualitativa vehiculada a partir de un método Delphi conformado por un panel de catorce expertos en marcas de lugar. Resultados. En relación con las marcas comerciales, se constata que las marcas de lugar, por su naturaleza de bien público, requieren de una gestión más compleja, preferentemente a tres niveles: administración pública, organizaciones privadas y ciudadanía. Conclusiones. En función de los resultados obtenidos, se concluye que la gestión de los lugares se encuentra nuevamente ocupada en la proyección de identidades espaciales singulares, en el marco de una creciente competencia entre territorios.

Diversity of the Quality Criteria in Qualitative Research in the Health Sciences: Lessons from a Lexicometric Analysis Composed of 133 Guidelines

A review of health sciences literature shows a substantial increase in qualitative publications. This work incorporates a certain number of research quality guidelines. We present the results of the Alceste® lexicometric analysis, which includes 133 quality grids for qualitative research covering five disciplinary fields of the health sciences: medicine and epidemiology, public health and health education, nursing, health sociology and anthropology, psychiatry and psychology. This analysis helped to cross-check the disciplinary fields with the various objectives assigned to the different criteria in the grids examined. The results obtained with Alceste® show the variability of the objectives sought by the authors of the guidelines. These discrepancies are not directly associated to disciplinary fields, and appear to be more closely linked to different qualitative research conceptualizations within the disciplines, and with essential qualitative research validation criteria. These conceptualizations must be clarified to help users better understand the objectives targeted by the grids, and promote more appreciation for qualitative research in the health sciences.

Pitkäaikaisten projektien myyntivaiheen kassavirtaennusteen kehittäminen. Case: Foster Wheeler Energia Oy

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on kehittää pitkäaikaisten projektien kassavirtaennusteita Foster Wheeler Energia Oy:ssä. Jotta tähän tutkielman pääongelmaan saadaan vastaus, tulee analysoida, mitkä tekijät vaikuttavat kassavirtaennusteiden onnistumiseen ja millaisia kassavirtojen ennustamiseen liittyviä ongelmia Foster Wheeler Energia Oy:ssä on ilmennyt. Tutkielma sisältää sekä teoreettisen että empiirisen osan. Teoriaosassa perehdytään projektitoimintaa ja kassavirtojen ennustamista koskeviin aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin. Teoriaosan pohjalta muodostetaan viitekehys ja joukko oletuksia. Sekä viitekehystä että oletuksia käytetään apuna empiirisen osan analyysissa. Analyysimenetelmä on kvalitatiivinen. Tutkimuksessa käytettävä tutkimusote on toiminta-analyyttinen. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kassavirtojen ennustamista voitaisiin Foster Wheeler Energia Oy:ssä kehittää ensinnäkin muuttamalla henkilöstön asenteita ja toimintatapoja. Muutoksen tarkoituksena on parantaa sekä henkilöstön kustannustietoisuutta että koko projektin etenemisen ajan kestävää yhteistyötä. Toinen keino ennusteiden parantamiseen on ennustamisessa nykyisin käytettävän hinnoitteluohjelman kehittäminen. Toteumatietoja hyväksikäyttävän ohjelman avulla ennusteet voidaan tehdä nopeammin ja tarkemmin kuin aikaisemmin.