Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial–interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr−1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin, modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH4 emissions but we proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH4 emissions, and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes.

Can the carbon isotopic composition of methane be reconstructed from multi-site firn air measurements?

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and large uncertainties exist concerning the future evolution of its atmospheric abundance. Analyzing methane atmospheric mixing and stable isotope ratios in air trapped in polar ice sheets helps in reconstructing the evolution of its sources and sinks in the past. This is important to improve predictions of atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios in the future under the influence of a changing climate. The aim of this study is to assess whether past atmospheric δ13C(CH4) variations can be reliably reconstructed from firn air measurements. Isotope reconstructions obtained with a state of the art firn model from different individual sites show unexpectedly large discrepancies and are mutually inconsistent. We show that small changes in the diffusivity profiles at individual sites lead to strong differences in the firn fractionation, which can explain a large part of these discrepancies. Using slightly modified diffusivities for some sites, and neglecting samples for which the firn fractionation signals are strongest, a combined multi-site inversion can be performed, which returns an isotope reconstruction that is consistent with firn data. However, the isotope trends are lower than what has been concluded from Southern Hemisphere (SH) archived air samples and high-accumulation ice core data. We conclude that with the current datasets and understanding of firn air transport, a high precision reconstruction of δ13C of CH4 from firn air samples is not possible, because reconstructed atmospheric trends over the last 50 yr of 0.3–1.5 ‰ are of the same magnitude as inherent uncertainties in the method, which are the firn fractionation correction (up to ~2 ‰ at individual sites), the Kr isobaric interference (up to ~0.8 ‰, system dependent), inter-laboratory calibration offsets (~0.2 ‰) and uncertainties in past CH4 levels (~0.5 ‰).

Inverse modelling of the 14C bomb pulse in stalagmites to constrain the dynamics of soil carbon cycling at selected European cave sites

The decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is temperature dependent, but its response to a future warmer climate remains equivocal. Enhanced rates of decomposition of SOM under increased global temperatures might cause higher CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, and could therefore constitute a strong positive feedback. The magnitude of this feedback however remains poorly understood, primarily because of the difficulty in quantifying the temperature sensitivity of stored, recalcitrant carbon that comprises the bulk (>90%) of SOM in most soils. In this study we investigated the effects of climatic conditions on soil carbon dynamics using the attenuation of the 14C ‘bomb’ pulse as recorded in selected modern European speleothems. These new data were combined with published results to further examine soil carbon dynamics, and to explore the sensitivity of labile and recalcitrant organic matter decomposition to different climatic conditions. Temporal changes in 14C activity inferred from each speleothem was modelled using a three pool soil carbon inverse model (applying a Monte Carlo method) to constrain soil carbon turnover rates at each site. Speleothems from sites that are characterised by semi-arid conditions, sparse vegetation, thin soil cover and high mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), exhibit weak attenuation of atmospheric 14C ‘bomb’ peak (a low damping effect, D in the range: 55–77%) and low modelled mean respired carbon ages (MRCA), indicating that decomposition is dominated by young, recently fixed soil carbon. By contrast, humid and high MAAT sites that are characterised by a thick soil cover and dense, well developed vegetation, display the highest damping effect (D = c. 90%), and the highest MRCA values (in the range from 350 ± 126 years to 571 ± 128 years). This suggests that carbon incorporated into these stalagmites originates predominantly from decomposition of old, recalcitrant organic matter. SOM turnover rates cannot be ascribed to a single climate variable, e.g. (MAAT) but instead reflect a complex interplay of climate (e.g. MAAT and moisture budget) and vegetation development.

The effect of abrupt climatic warming on biogeochemical cycling and N2O emissions in a terrestrial ecosystem

The large, rapid increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations that occurred concurrent with the abrupt warming at the end of the Last Glacial period might have been the result of a reorganization in global biogeochemical cycles. To explore the sensitivity of nitrogen cycling in terrestrial ecosystems to abrupt warming, we combined a scenario of climate and vegetation composition change based on multiproxy data for the Oldest Dryas–Bølling abrupt warming event at Gerzensee, Switzerland, with a biogeochemical model that simulates terrestrial N uptake and release, including N2O emissions. As for many central European sites, the pollen record at the Gerzensee is remarkable for the abundant presence of the symbiotic nitrogen fixer Hippophaë rhamnoides (L.) during the abrupt warming that also marks the beginning of primary succession on immature glacial soils. Here we show that without additional nitrogen fixation, climate change results in a significant increase of N2O emissions of approximately factor 3.4 (from 6.4 ± 1.9 to 21.6 ± 5.9 mg N2O–N m− 2 yr− 1). Each additional 1000 mg m− 2 yr− 1 of nitrogen added to the ecosystem through N-fixation results in additional N2O emissions of 1.6 mg N2O–N m− 2 yr− 1 for the time with maximum H. rhamnoides coverage. Our results suggest that local reactions of emissions to abrupt climate change could have been considerably faster than the overall atmospheric concentration changes observed in polar ice. Nitrogen enrichment of soils due to the presence of symbiotic N-fixers during early primary succession not only facilitates the establishment of vegetation on soils in their initial stage of development, but can also have considerable influence on biogeochemical cycles and the release of reactive nitrogen trace gases to the atmosphere.

The dating of dipterocarp tree rings: establishing a record of carbon cycling and climatic change in the tropics

In a first step to obtain a proxy record of past climatic events (including the El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation) in the normally aseasonal tropical environment of Sabah, a radial segment from a recently fallen dipterocarp (Shorea Superba) was radiocarbon dated and subjected to carbon isotope analysis. The high-precision radiocarbon results fell into the ambiguous modern plateau where several calibrated dates can exist for each sample. Dating was achieved by wiggle matching using a Bayesian approach to calibration. Using the defined growth characteristics of Shorea superba, probability density distributions were calculated and improbable dates rejected. It was found that the tree most likely started growing around AD 1660-1685. A total of 173 apparent growth increments were measured and, therefore, it could be determined that the tree formed one ring approximately every two years. Stable carbon isotope values were obtained from resin-extracted wholewood from each ring. Carbon cycling is evident in the `juvenile effect', resulting from the assimilation of respired carbon dioxide and lower light levels below the canopy, and in the `anthropogenic effect' caused by increased industrial activity in the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This study demonstrates that palaeoenvironmental information can be obtained from trees growing in aseasonal environments, where climatic conditions prevent the formation of well-defined annual rings.

Improving accuracy and precision of ice core δD(CH4) analyses using methane pre-pyrolysis and hydrogen post-pyrolysis trapping and subsequent chromatographic separation

Firn and polar ice cores offer the only direct palaeoatmospheric archive. Analyses of past greenhouse gas concentrations and their isotopic compositions in air bubbles in the ice can help to constrain changes in global biogeochemical cycles in the past. For the analysis of the hydrogen isotopic composition of methane (δD(CH4) or δ2H(CH4)) 0.5 to 1.5 kg of ice was hitherto used. Here we present a method to improve precision and reduce the sample amount for δD(CH4) measurements in (ice core) air. Pre-concentrated methane is focused in front of a high temperature oven (pre-pyrolysis trapping), and molecular hydrogen formed by pyrolysis is trapped afterwards (post-pyrolysis trapping), both on a carbon-PLOT capillary at −196 °C. Argon, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, unpyrolysed methane and krypton are trapped together with H2 and must be separated using a second short, cooled chromatographic column to ensure accurate results. Pre- and post-pyrolysis trapping largely removes the isotopic fractionation induced during chromatographic separation and results in a narrow peak in the mass spectrometer. Air standards can be measured with a precision better than 1‰. For polar ice samples from glacial periods, we estimate a precision of 2.3‰ for 350 g of ice (or roughly 30 mL – at standard temperature and pressure (STP) – of air) with 350 ppb of methane. This corresponds to recent tropospheric air samples (about 1900 ppb CH4) of about 6 mL (STP) or about 500 pmol of pure CH4.

On the interference of Kr during carbon isotope analysis of methane using continuous-flow combustion–isotope ratio mass spectrometry

Stable carbon isotope analysis of methane (delta C-13 of CH4) on atmospheric samples is one key method to constrain the current and past atmospheric CH4 budget. A frequently applied measurement technique is gas chromatography (GC) isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) coupled to a combustion-preconcentration unit. This report shows that the atmospheric trace gas krypton (Kr) can severely interfere during the mass spectrometric measurement, leading to significant biases in delta C-13 of CH4, if krypton is not sufficiently separated during the analysis. According to our experiments, the krypton interference is likely composed of two individual effects, with the lateral tailing of the doubly charged Kr-86 peak affecting the neighbouring m/z 44 and partially the m/z 45 Faraday cups. Additionally, a broad signal affecting m/z 45 and especially m/z 46 is assumed to result from scattered ions of singly charged krypton. The introduced bias in the measured isotope ratios is dependent on the chromatographic separation, the krypton-to-CH4 mixing ratio in the sample, the focusing of the mass spectrometer as well as the detector configuration and can amount to up to several per mil in delta C-13. Apart from technical solutions to avoid this interference, we present correction routines to a posteriori remove the bias.

Ego depletion and persistent performance in a cycling task

We tested the assumption that persistent performance in an exhausting indoor cycling task would depend on momentarily available self-control strength (N = 20 active participants). In a within-subjects design (two points of measurement, exactly seven days apart), participants’ self-control strength was experimentally manipulated (depletion: yes vs. no; order counterbalanced) via the Stroop test before the participants performed a cycling task. In line with our hypothesis, hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) revealed that participants consistently performed worse over a period of 18 minutes when they were ego depleted. In addition, HLM analysis revealed that depleted participants invested less effort in the cycling task, as indicated by their lower heart rate. This effect escalated over time, as indicated by a time × condition interaction. These results indicate that self-control strength is necessary to obtain an optimal level of performance in endurance tasks requiring high levels of persistence. Practical implications are discussed.

The stable carbon isotopic composition of Daphnia ephippia in small, temperate lakes reflects in-lake methane availability

Daphnia can ingest methane-oxidizing bacteria and incorporate methanogenic carbon into their biomass, leading to low stable carbon isotope ratios (expressed as δ13C values) of their tissue. Therefore, δ13C analysis of Daphnia resting eggs (ephippia) in lake sediment records can potentially be used to reconstruct past in-lake availability of methane (CH4). However, detailed multilake studies demonstrating that δ13C values of recently deposited Daphnia ephippia (δ13Cephippia) are systematically related to in-lake CH4 concentrations (CH4aq) are still missing. We measured δ13Cephippia from surface sediments of 15 small lakes in Europe, and compared these values with late-summer CH4aq. δ13Cephippia ranged from −51.6‰ to −25.9‰, and was strongly correlated with CH4aq in the surface water and above the sediment (r −0.73 and −0.77, respectively), whereas a negative rather than the expected positive correlation was found with δ13C values of carbon dioxide (CO2) (r −0.54), and no correlation was observed with CO2aq. At eight sites, offsets between δ13 CCO2 and δ13Cephippia exceeded offsets between δ13 CCO2 and δ13Calgae reported in literature. δ13Cephippia was positively correlated with δ13C values of sedimentary organic matter (r 0.54), but up to 20.7‰ lower in all except one of the lakes (average −6.1‰). We conclude that incorporation of methanogenic carbon prior to ephippia formation must have been widespread by Daphnia in our study lakes, especially those with high CH4aq. Our results suggest a systematic relationship between δ13Cephippia values and CH4aq in small temperate lakes, and that δ13Cephippia analysis on sediment records may provide insights into past changes in in-lake CH4aq.

Natural and anthropogenic methane fluxes in Eurasia: a mesoscale quantification by generalized atmospheric inversion

Eight surface observation sites providing quasi-continuous measurements of atmospheric methane mixingratios have been operated since the mid-2000’s in Siberia. For the first time in a single work, we assimilate 1 year of these in situ observations in an atmospheric inversion. Our objective is to quantify methane surface fluxes from anthropogenic and wetland sources at the mesoscale in the Siberian lowlands for the year 2010. To do so, we first inquire about the way the inversion uses the observations and the way the fluxes are constrained by the observation sites. As atmospheric inver- sions at the mesoscale suffer from mis-quantified sources of uncertainties, we follow recent innovations in inversion techniques and use a new inversion approach which quantifies the uncertainties more objectively than the previous inversion systems. We find that, due to errors in the representation of the atmospheric transport and redundant pieces of information, only one observation every few days is found valuable by the inversion. The remaining high-resolution quasi-continuous signal is representative of very local emission patterns difficult to analyse with a mesoscale system. An analysis of the use of information by the inversion also reveals that the observation sites constrain methane emissions within a radius of 500 km. More observation sites than the ones currently in operation are then necessary to constrain the whole Siberian lowlands. Still, the fluxes within the constrained areas are quantified with objectified uncertainties. Finally, the tolerance intervals for posterior methane fluxes are of roughly 20 % (resp. 50 %) of the fluxes for anthropogenic (resp. wetland) sources. About 50–70 % of Siberian lowlands emissions are constrained by the inversion on average on an annual basis. Extrapolating the figures on the constrained areas to the whole Siberian lowlands, we find a regional methane budget of 5–28 TgCH4 for the year 2010, i.e. 1–5 % of the global methane emissions. As very few in situ observations are available in the region of interest, observations of methane total columns from the Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are tentatively used for the evaluation of the inversion results, but they exhibit only a marginal signal from the fluxes within the region of interest.

Evaluating atmospheric methane inversion model results for Pallas, northern Finland

A state-of-the-art inverse model, CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS), was used to optimize estimates of methane (CH4) surface fluxes using atmospheric observations of CH4 as a constraint. The model consists of the latest version of the TM5 atmospheric chemistry-transport model and an ensemble Kalman filter based data assimilation system. The model was constrained by atmospheric methane surface concentrations, obtained from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG). Prior methane emissions were specified for five sources: biosphere, anthropogenic, fire, termites and ocean, of which bio-sphere and anthropogenic emissions were optimized. Atmospheric CH 4 mole fractions for 2007 from northern Finland calculated from prior and optimized emissions were compared with observations. It was found that the root mean squared errors of the posterior esti - mates were more than halved. Furthermore, inclusion of NOAA observations of CH 4 from weekly discrete air samples collected at Pallas improved agreement between posterior CH 4 mole fraction estimates and continuous observations, and resulted in reducing optimized biosphere emissions and their uncertainties in northern Finland.

Biotic and abiotic controls of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in Central European forests

The functioning and services of Central European forests are threatened by global change and a loss of biodiversity. Nutrient cycling as a key forest function is affected by biotic drivers (e.g., dominant tree species, understory plants, soil organisms) that interact with abiotic conditions (e.g., climate, soil properties). In contrast to grassland ecosystems, evidence for the relationship of nutrient cycles and biodiversity in forests is scarce because the structural complexity of forests limits experimental control of driving factors. Alternatively, observational studies along gradients in abiotic conditions and biotic properties may elucidate the role of biodiversity for forest nutrient cycles. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the functional importance of biodiversity for nutrient cycles in forests by analyzing water-bound fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) along gradients in biodiversity in three regions of Germany. The tested hypotheses included: (1) temperate forest canopies retain atmospheric N and retention increases with increasing plant diversity, (2) N release from organic layers increases with resource availability and population size of decomposers but N leaching decreases along a gradient in plant diversity, (3) P leaching from forest canopies increases with improved P supply from recalcitrant P fractions by a more diverse ectomycorrhizal fungal community. In the canopies of 27 forest stands from three regions, 16 % to 51 % of atmospheric N inputs were retained. Regional differences in N retention likely resulted from different in N availability in the soil. Canopy N retention was greater in coniferous than in beech forests, but this was not the case on loessderived soils. Nitrogen retention increased with increasing tree and shrub diversity which suggested complementary aboveground N uptake. The strength of the diversity effect on canopy N uptake differed among regions and between coniferous and deciduous forests. The N processing in the canopy directly coupled back to N leaching from organic layers in beech forests because throughfall-derived N flushed almost completely through the mull-type organic layers at the 12 studied beech sites. The N release from organic layers increased with stand basal area but was rather low (< 10 % of annual aboveground litterfall) because of a potentially high microbial N immobilization and intensive incorporation of litter into the mineral soil by bioturbation. Soil fauna biomass stimulated N mineralization through trophic interactions with primary producers and soil microorganisms. Both gross and net leaching from organic layers decreased with increasing plant diversity. Especially the diversity but not the cover of herbs increased N uptake. In contrast to N, P was leached from the canopy. Throughfall-derived P was also flushed quickly through the mull-type organic layers and leached P was predominantly immobilized in non directly plant-available P fractions in the mineral soil. Concentrations of plant-available phosphate in mineral soil solution were low and P leaching from the canopy increased with increasing concentrations of the moderately labile P fraction in soil and increasing ectomycorrhiza diversity while leaf C:P ratios decreased. This suggested that tree P supply benefited from complementary mining of diverse mycorrhizal communities for recalcitrant P. Canopy P leaching increased in years with pronounced spring drought which could lead to a deterioration of P supply by an increasing frequency of drought events. This thesis showed that N and P cycling in Central European forests is controlled by a complex interplay of abiotic site conditions with biological processes mediated by various groups of organisms, and that diverse plant communities contribute to tightening the N cycle in Central European forests and that diverse mycorrhizal communities improve the limited P availability. Maintaining forest biodiversity seems essential to ensure forest services in the light of environmental change.

Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

Cycling in the nucleus: regulation of RNA 3' processing and nuclear organization of replication-dependent histone genes.

The histones which pack new DNA during the S phase of animal cells are made from mRNAs that are cleaved at their 3' end but not polyadenylated. Some of the factors used in this reaction are unique to it while others are shared with the polyadenylation process that generates all other mRNAs. Recent work has begun to shed light on how the cell manages the assignment of these common components to the two 3' processing systems, and how it achieves their cell cycle-regulation and recruitment to the histone pre-mRNA. Moreover, recent and older findings reveal multiple connections between the nuclear organization of histone genes, their transcription and 3' end processing as well as the control of cell proliferation.