HTLV-I/II and blood donors: determinants associated with seropositivity in a low risk population

OBJECTIVE: Blood donors in Brazil have been routinely screened for HTLV-I/II since 1993. A study was performed to estimate the prevalence of HTLV-I/II infection in a low risk population and to better understand determinants associated with seropositivity. METHODS: HTLV-I/II seropositive (n=135), indeterminate (n=167) and seronegative blood donors (n=116) were enrolled in an open prevalence prospective cohort study. A cross-sectional epidemiological study of positive, indeterminate and seronegative HTLV-I/II subjects was conducted to assess behavioral and environmental risk factors for seropositivity. HTLV-I/II serological status was confirmed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA) and Western blot (WB). RESULTS: The three groups were not homogeneous. HTLV-I/II seropositivity was associated to past blood transfusion and years of schooling, a marker of socioeconomic status, and use of non-intravenous illegal drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and improvement of blood donor selection process.

Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Alcohol drinking patterns by gender, ethnicity, and social class in Bahia, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To study patterns of alcohol consumption and prevalence of high-risk drinking. METHODS: A household survey was carried out in a sample of 2,302 adults in Salvador, Brazil. Cases of High-Risk Drinking (HRD) were defined as those subjects who referred daily or weekly binge drinking plus episodes of drunkenness and those who reported any use of alcoholic beverages but with frequent drunkenness (at least once a week). RESULTS: Fifty-six per cent of the sample acknowledged drinking alcoholic beverages. Overall consumption was significantly related with gender (male), marital status (single), migration (non-migrant), better educated (college level), and social class (upper). No significant differences were found regarding ethnicity, except for cachaça (Brazilian sugarcane liquor) and other distilled beverages. Overall 12-month prevalence of high-risk drinking was 7%, six times more prevalent among males than females (almost 13% compared to 2.4%). A positive association of HRD prevalence with education and social class was found. No overall relationship was found between ethnicity and HRD. Male gender and higher socioeconomic status were associated with increased odds of HRD. Two-way stratified analyses yielded consistent gender effects throughout all strata of independent variables. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that social and cultural elements determine local patterns of alcohol-drinking behavior. Additional research on long-term and differential effects of gender, ethnicity, and social class on alcohol use and misuse is needed in order to explain their role as sources of social health inequities.

Aleitamento materno exclusivo entre trabalhadoras com creche no local de trabalho

OBJETIVO: Investigar os fatores relacionados à decisão das mulheres em amamentar e a duração planejada e, de fato observada, do aleitamento exclusivo entre trabalhadoras que dispõem de creche na empresa. MÉTODOS: Estudo qualitativo no qual se comparou um grupo de 15 trabalhadoras cujos bebês estavam sendo alimentados apenas com leite materno quando começaram a freqüentar a creche da empresa com outro similar que incluía mulheres cujos bebês que, ao ingressar, já estavam recebendo, além do leite materno, outros alimentos. Foram realizadas entrevistas semi-estruturadas e grupos focais. RESULTADOS: Evidenciaram-se como fatores relacionados à decisão de iniciar a amamentação e mantê-la ao retornar ao trabalho: o desejo de amamentar, embasado no valor que as mulheres dos dois grupos atribuíam ao aleitamento materno, bem como seus maridos e outras pessoas significativas (por exemplo: mãe, irmã, amigas). A duração do aleitamento exclusivo relacionou-se principalmente à orientação do pediatra que cuidava do bebê, que foi distinta em cada um dos grupos estudados. CONCLUSÃO: A existência da creche no local de trabalho aparece como elemento relevante para a manutenção do aleitamento após a licença de maternidade, especialmente o materno exclusivo. A decisão sobre quanto tempo amamentar de forma exclusiva esteve relacionada às informações recebidas acerca do assunto antes e durante a gestação, e no pós-parto. A diferença entre os dois grupos estudados foi que as mulheres que mantiveram o aleitamento exclusivo por quase seis meses acreditavam que quanto mais tempo dessem somente o leite materno, mais benefícios o bebê teria, enquanto as mulheres do outro grupo acreditavam que três meses de aleitamento exclusivo eram suficientes.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in Northern Angola

Anaemia has a significant impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nutritional and infectious causes of anaemia are geographically variable and anaemia maps based on information on the major aetiologies of anaemia are important for identifying communities most in need and the relative contribution of major causes. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping, by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modeling approaches. We aimed to a) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) for anaemia endemicity in children aged ≤15 years and b) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in Northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data on children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variation in these infections. The predictions and their associated uncertainty were used as inputs for a model of anemia prevalence to predict small-scale spatial variation of anaemia. Stunting, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6%, and 9.8%, of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria, S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control program with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases, such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infection.

O setor empresarial local e as implicações da adoção do sistema

Mestrado em Auditoria

Criação de valor, gestão de risco e as medidas de performance ajustadas ao risco: aplicação do RAROC - Risk Adjustment Return on Capital - ao grupo crédito agrícola

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

A implementação do Balanced Scorecard nos trabalhos de auditoria interna e o seu contributo para a estratégia organizacional - caso do sector público: autarquia local

Mestrado em Auditoria

Reactogenicity of yellow fever vaccines in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To compare the reactogenicity of three yellow fever (YF) vaccines from WHO-17D and Brazilian 17DD substrains (different seed-lots) and placebo. METHODS: The study involved 1,087 adults eligible for YF vaccine in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Vaccines produced by Bio-Manguinhos, Fiocruz (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) were administered ("day 0") following standardized procedures adapted to allow blinding and blocked randomization of participants to coded vaccine types. Adverse events after immunization were ascertained in an interview and in diary forms filled in by each participant. Liver enzymes were measured on days 0, 4-20 and 30 of the study. Viremia levels were measured on days 4 to 20 of follow-up. The immune response was verified through serologic tests. RESULTS: Participants were mostly young males. The seroconversion rate was above 98% among those seronegative before immunization. Compared to placebo, the excess risk of any local adverse events ranged from 0.9% to 2.5%, whereas for any systemic adverse events it ranged from 3.5% to 7.4% across vaccine groups. The excess risk of events leading to search for medical care or to interruption of work activities ranged from 2% to 4.5%. Viremia was detected in 3%-6% of vaccinees up to 10 days after vaccination. Variations in liver enzyme levels after vaccination were similar in placebo and vaccine recipients. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of adverse events post-immunization against YF, accounting for the background occurrence of nonspecific signs and symptoms, was shown for the first time to be similar for vaccines from 17D and 17DD substrains. The data also provided evidence against viscerotropism of vaccine virus.

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in northern Angola

Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) in anaemia endemicity; and (ii) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

Estudo do desempenho de betões com incorporação de agregados finos provenientes de resíduos industriais

A crescente preocupação relacionada com a sustentabilidade ambiental e o risco de esgotamento de recursos naturais, tem levado à necessidade de encontrar novos materiais e novas técnicas construtivas. Nesse pressuposto, o presente trabalho tem como principal objetivo avaliar a viabilidade de utilização de resíduos provenientes de indústrias da região (lamas de cal e cinzas de biomassa) em produção de betões que possam vir a ser utilizados na construção civil. Neste sentido, desenvolveu-se uma campanha experimental com o intuito de comparar desempenho de sete tipos diferentes de betões: um de referência e seis com taxas de substituição de 20, 50 e 100% de agregados finos naturais por cinzas de biomassa e lamas de cal. A composição dos diferentes betões foi determinada pelo método de Faury, cumprindo-se as exigências na norma NP EN 206-1. O desempenho dos betões foi avaliado através da análise dos resultados de ensaios sobre o betão fresco (consistência, massa volúmica e teor de ar) e sobre o betão endurecido (massa volúmica, resistência à compressão, resistência à tração por compressão diametral, absorção de água por capilaridade e absorção de água por imersão). No presente trabalho, procedeu-se, também, à realização de ensaios químicos aos betões produzidos (lixiviação). No final do trabalho é feita uma discussão dos resultados experimentais e são evidenciadas as principais conclusões deste estudo.