Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expectation Propagation with Factorizing Distributions: A Gaussian Approximation and Performance Results for Simple Models

We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

Identification of Plasmodium relictum causing mortality in penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) from Sao Paulo Zoo, Brazil

This study reports avian malaria caused by Plasmodium relictum in Magellanic Penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) from Sao Paulo Zoo. The disease was highly infective among the birds and was clinically characterized by its acute course and high mortality. The penguins of Sao Paulo Zoo were housed for at least 2 years without malaria; however, they had always been maintained in an enclosure protected from mosquito exposure during the night period. When they presented pododermatitis, they were freed at night for a short period. sao Paulo Zoo is located in one of the last forest remnants of the city, an area of original Atlantic forest. In the winter, the space destined for Zoo birds is shared with migratory species. Hence the possibility exists that the disease was transmitted to the penguins by mosquitoes that had previously bitten infected wild birds. Avian malaria parasites are transmitted mainly by mosquitoes of the genera Aedes and Culex, common vectors in the Atlantic forest. In this study, one Culex (Cux.) sp. was found, infected with P. relictum. There are diverse problems in housing distinct species of animals in captivity, principally when occupying the same enclosure, since it facilitates the transmission of diseases with indirect cycles, as is the case of Plasmodium spp., because certain species that cause discrete infections in some bird species can become a serious danger for others, especially penguins, which do not possess natural resistance. Thus, serious implications exist for periodically testing and administrating malaria therapy in captive penguins potentially exposed to mosquitoes during the night period, as well as other captive birds from Sao Paulo Zoo. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of physiological understanding in plant breeding; From a breeding perspective

The role of physiological understanding in improving the efficiency of breeding programs is examined largely from the perspective of conventional breeding programs. Impact of physiological research to date on breeding programs, and the nature of that research, was assessed from (i) responses to a questionnaire distributed to plant breeders and physiologists, and (ii) a survey of literature abstracts. Ways to better utilise physiological understanding for improving breeding programs are suggested, together with possible constraints to delivering beneficial outcomes. Responses from the questionnaire indicated a general view that the contribution by crop physiology to date has been modest. However, most of those surveyed expected the contribution to be larger in the next 20 years. Some constraints to progress perceived by breeders and physiologists were highlighted. The survey of literature abstracts indicated that from a plant breeding perspective, much physiological research is not progressing further than making suggestions about possible approaches to selection. There was limited evidence in the literature of objective comparison of such suggestions with existing methodology, or of development and application of these within active breeding programs. It is argued in this paper that the development of outputs from physiological research for breeding requires a good understanding of the breeding program(s) being serviced and factors affecting its performance. Simple quantitative genetic models, or at least the ideas they represent, should be considered in conducting physiological research and in envisaging and evaluating outputs. The key steps of a generalised breeding program are outlined, and the potential pathways for physiological understanding to impact on these steps are discussed. Impact on breeding programs may arise through (i) better choice of environments in which to conduct selection trials, (ii) identification of selection criteria and traits for focused introgression programs, and (iii) identifying traits for indirect selection criteria as an adjunct to criteria already used. While many breeders and physiologists apparently recognise that physiological understanding may have a major role in the first area, there appears to be relatively Little research activity targeting this issue, and a corresponding bias, arguably unjustified, toward examining traits for indirect selection. Furthermore, research on traits aimed at crop improvement is often deficient because key genetic parameters, such as genetic variation in relevant breeding populations and genetic (as opposed to phenotypic) correlations with yield or other characters of economic importance, are not properly considered in the research. Some areas requiring special attention for successfully interfacing physiology research with breeding are discussed. These include (i) the need to work with relevant genetic populations, (ii) close integration of the physiological research with an active breeding program, and (iii) the dangers of a pre-defined or narrow focus in the physiological research.

Reorganization of terminator DNA upon binding replication terminator protein: Implications for the functional replication fork arrest complex

Termination of DNA replication in Bacillus subtilis involves the polar arrest of replication forks by a specific complex formed between the replication terminator protein (RTP) and DNA terminator sites. While determination of the crystal structure of RTP has facilitated our understanding of how a single RTP dimer interacts with terminator DNA, additional information is required in order to understand the assembly of a functional fork arrest complex, which requires an interaction between two RTP dimers and the terminator site. In this study, we show that the conformation of the major B. subtilis DNA terminator, Terl, becomes considerably distorted upon binding RTP. Binding of the first dimer of RTP to the B site of Terl causes the DNA to become slightly unwound and bent by similar to 40 degrees. Binding of a second dimer of RTP to the A site causes the bend angle to increase to similar to 60 degrees. We have used this new data to construct two plausible models that might explain how the ternary terminator complex can block DNA replication in a polar manner, in the first model, polarity of action is a consequence of the two RTP-DNA half-sites having different conformations. These different conformations result from different RTP-DNA contacts at each half-site (due to the intrinsic asymmetry at the terminator DNA), as well as interactions (direct or indirect) between the RTP dimers on the DNA. In the second model, polar fork arrest activity is a consequence of the different affinities of RTP for the A and B sites of the terminator DNA, modulated significantly by direct or indirect interactions between the RTP dimers.

High-titer antichromatin antibody is associated with proliferative class IV of lupus nephritis

The antichromatin antibody (aCT) has been described as a useful marker for lupus nephropathy. The relevance of its nephritogenic potential may be appropriately evaluated in the context of renal histopathology. Therefore, the present study investigated the relationship of aCT with a particular histopathologic class of lupus nephritis (LN). Seventy-eight consecutive patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (ACR criteria) and active nephritis who underwent renal biopsy from 1999 to 2004 and with available frozen serum sample obtained at the time of biopsy were selected. aCT was measured by ELISA, and anti-dsDNA was measured by indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) and by ELISA. All renal biopsies were revised in a blinded manner by the same expert renal pathologist. Charts were extensively reviewed for demographic and renal features obtained at the time of biopsy. The prevalence of aCT (>= 20 U) was 59% with a mean titer of 74.3 +/- 38.7U. Both aCT-positive and aCT-negative groups of patients had similar age, gender distribution, duration of lupus, and duration of renal disease. Anti-dsDNA was detected by IIF in 29.5% and by ELISA in 42.3% of the patients. Concomitant presence of both antibodies was observed in 63% (29/46) [anti-dsDNA by ELISA] and 45.6% (21/46) [anti-dsDNA by IIF] of the patients. Lower serum levels of C3 (73% vs. 40%, P=0.0058) and C4 (82% vs. 46.7%, P=0.0021) were more commonly observed in aCT >= 20 U patients compared to the aCT-negative group. It is important to note that the use of a higher cut-off value (>= 40 U) for aCT test revealed a predominance of class IV LN (58% vs. 33%, P=0.039) in aCT >= 40 U compared to aCT<40 U group. The mean levels of proteinuria, serum albumin, and creatinine were markedly altered but were comparable in both groups (P >= 0.05). One fourth (26.3%) of the 19 patients with class IV LN and aCT >= 40 U had no detectable anti-dsDNA (ELISA). These data suggest that high-titer aCT seems to be a valuable biomarker for proliferative class IV of LN.

Male gender results in more severe lupus nephritis

Gender may produce different characteristics in the manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The present study investigated the influence of gender on clinical, laboratory, autoantibodies and histopathological classes of lupus nephritis (LN). As much as 81 patients diagnosed with SLE (ACR criteria) and active nephritis, who underwent renal biopsy between 1999 and 2004, and who had frozen serum samples and clinical data available from the time of biopsy, were selected for this study. The presence of anti-P and antichromatin antibodies was measured using ELISA, and anti-dsDNA was measured using indirect immunofluorescence. All of the renal biopsies were reviewed in a blinded manner by the same expert renal pathologist. The charts were extensively reviewed for demographic and renal features obtained at the time of the biopsy. Of the 81 patients (13.6%), 11 were male SLE patients. Both male and female lupus patients were of similar age and race, and had similar durations of lupus and renal disease. The female patients had more cutaneous (95.7 vs. 45.5%, P = 0.0001) and haematological (52.9 vs. 18.2%, P = 0.04) involvements than the male SLE patients. In addition, the articular data, central nervous system analyses, serositis findings and SLEDAI scores were similar in both experimental groups. Positivity for anti-dsDNA, anti-ribosomal P and antichromatin did not differ between the two groups, and both groups showed similarly low C3 or C4 serum levels. Our analysis indicated that no histopathological class of LN was predominant in both males and females. Interestingly, the serum creatinine levels were higher in the male SLE patients compared to the female SLE group (3.16 +/- A 2.49 vs. 1.99 +/- A 1.54 mg/dL, P = 0.03), with an increased frequency of high creatinine (81.8 vs. 47.1%, P = 0.04) as well as renal activity index (7.6 +/- A 3.5 vs. 4.8 +/- A 3.5, P = 0.02). In addition, whilst the mean levels of proteinuria, cylindruria and serum albumin were markedly altered, they were comparable between both lupus men and women. Moreover, the frequencies of dialysis, renal transplantation and death were similar between the two groups. These data suggest that male patients had a more severe LN compared to women diagnosed with this renal abnormality.

Analysis of workplace injuries in a dental school environment

Workplace injuries at the University of Queensland Dental School during the period 1992-1994 were assessed to determine their incidence, and the associated indirect costs, causal factors, and appropriate preventive strategies. Overall, dental chairside assistants experienced a higher incidence of injuries than students both on a per worker and per time basis. Of the injuries with a low risk of cross-infection, burns and scalds from sterilizing equipment, and eye injuries in laboratories were the most common. This emphasizes the importance of wearing appropriate protective equipment in areas outside the treatment zone, and the need for signage and education. Common causes of sharps injuries were burs left in handpieces, two-handed needle recapping, and cleaning of probes in the sterilizing room. Changes to techniques and equipment would prevent such incidents. A range of factors which contribute to the calculation of indirect costs following injuries in the dental workplace are identified.

Intramyocardial transplantation of fibroblasts expressing vascular endothelial growth factor attenuates cardiac dysfunction

In this study, we analyzed whether transplantation of cardiac fibroblasts (CFs) expressing vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) mitigates cardiac dysfunction after myocardial infarction (MI) in rats. First, we observed that the transgene expression lasts longer (45 vs 7 days) when fibroblasts are used as vectors compared with myoblasts. In a preventive protocol, induction of cardiac neovascularization accompanied by reduction in myocardial scar area was observed when cell transplantation was performed 1 week before ischemia/reperfusion and the animals analyzed 3 weeks later. Finally, the therapeutic efficacy of this approach was tested injecting cells in a fibrin biopolymer, to increase cardiac retention, 24 h post-MI. After 4 weeks, an increase in neovascularization and a decrease in myocardial collagen were observed only in rats that received cells expressing VEGF. Basal indirect or direct hemodynamic measurements showed no differences among the groups whereas under pharmacological stress, only the group that received cells expressing VEGF showed a significant reduction in end-diastolic pressure and improvement in stroke volume and cardiac work. These results indicate that transplantation of CFs expressing VEGF using fibrin biopolymer induces neovascularization and attenuates left ventricle fibrosis and cardiac dysfunction in ischemic heart. Gene Therapy (2010) 17, 305-314; doi:10.1038/gt.2009.146; published online 10 December 2009

Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation

The small sample performance of Granger causality tests under different model dimensions, degree of cointegration, direction of causality, and system stability are presented. Two tests based on maximum likelihood estimation of error-correction models (LR and WALD) are compared to a Wald test based on multivariate least squares estimation of a modified VAR (MWALD). In large samples all test statistics perform well in terms of size and power. For smaller samples, the LR and WALD tests perform better than the MWALD test. Overall, the LR test outperforms the other two in terms of size and power in small samples.

Supporting contexts in program refinement

A program can be refined either by transforming the whole program or by refining one of its components. The refinement of a component is, for the main part, independent of the remainder of the program. However, refinement of a component can depend on the context of the component for information about the variables that are in scope and what their types are. The refinement can also take advantage of additional information, such as any precondition the component can assume. The aim of this paper is to introduce a technique, which we call program window inference, to handle such contextual information during derivations in the refinement calculus. The idea is borrowed from a technique, called window inference, for handling context in theorem proving. Window inference is the primary proof paradigm of the Ergo proof editor. This tool has been extended to mechanize refinement using program window inference. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Inflammatory epidermolysis bullosa acquisita - Case report

We report a case of an inflammatory variant of epidermolysis bullosa acquisita in a 53-year-old male, with itching blistering eruption on the trunk, armpits and limbs for six months. The skin biopsy specimen showed subepidermal blister with neutrophils. Direct immunofluorescence revealed linear depositions of IgG, IgA, IgM and C3 at the basement membrane; indirect immunofluorescence and salt split skin were negative. Antinuclear antibodies were also negative. Improvement of the blisters followed treatment with systemic corticotherapy and some lesions healed with milia. This is a rare presentation of epidermolysis bullosa acquisita, with inflammatory lesions at first.

Clinical and immunopathological evaluation of epidermolysis bullosa acquisita

P>Background. Epidermolysis bullosa acquisita (EBA) is a subepidermal blistering disease with IgG antibodies against collagen VII. The disease is heterogeneous and can lead to significant morbidity. Aim. To characterize the clinical and laboratory profile of patients with EBA from Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods. In total, 12 patients (mean age 24 years) were analysed for cutaneous and mucosal involvement, laboratory data and response to treatment. Results. Mucosal involvement occurred in 11 of the 12 patients (eyes in 4/12, nose in 4/9, pharynx-larynx in 5/9 and oesophagus in 4/10; 3 patients did not undergo nasopharyngeal examination and 2 paediatric patients did not undergo endoscopy). Using direct immunofluorescence, different patterns of deposits were found at the basement membrane zone: IgG (12/12), IgA (6/12), IgM (4/12), C3 (11/12). Indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) was positive in 6 of 12 patients, and IIF on salt-split skin detected dermal deposition in 10 of 12 patients. Antinuclear antibodies were found in 3 of 12 patients, but none of them fulfilled the criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus. After treatment, total remission was achieved in three patients and partial remission in five (three were maintained on minimal treatment, one on the full treatment and one was able to come off treatment). Two patients were lost to follow-up and the remaining two had disease flares. Complications were mainly mucosal (oesophageal stenosis, laryngeal synechia, symblephara and trichiasis). Conclusions. Mucosal involvement in EBA is a determining factor for disease morbidity. Complete evaluation of the patient, focusing on both cutaneous and extracutaneous sites is essential, as EBA may evolve to refractory disease, severely compromising its outcome.

Dynamics of Hepatitis D (delta) virus genotype 3 in the Amazon region of South America

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is widely distributed and associated with fulminant hepatitis epidemics in areas with high prevalence of HBV. Several studies performed in the 1980s showed data on HDV infection in South America, but there are no studies on the viral dynamics of this virus. The aim of this study was to conduct an evolutionary analysis of hepatitis delta genotype 3 (HDV/3) prevalent in South America: estimate its nucleotide substitution rate, determine the time of most recent ancestor (TMRCA) and characterize the epidemic history and evolutionary dynamics. Furthermore, we characterized the presence of HBV/HDV infection in seven samples collected from patients who died due to fulminant hepatitis from Amazon region in Colombia and included them in the evolutionary analysis. This is the first study reporting HBV and HDV sequences from the Amazon region of Colombia. Of the seven Colombian patients, five were positive for HBV-DNA and HDV-RNA. Of them, two samples were successfully sequenced for HBV (subgenotypes F3 and Fib) and the five samples HDV positive were classified as HDV/3. By using all HDV/3 available reference sequences with sampling dates (n = 36), we estimated the HDV/3 substitution rate in 1.07 x 10(-3) substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), which resulted in a time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of 85 years. Also, it was determined that HDV/3 spread exponentially from early 1950s to the 1970s in South America. This work discusses for the first time the viral dynamics for the HDV/3 circulating in South America. We suggest that the measures implemented to control HBV transmission resulted in the control of HDV/3 spreading in South America, especially after the important raise in this infection associated with a huge mortality during the 1950s up to the 1970s. The differences found among HDV/3 and the other HDV genotypes concerning its diversity raises the hypothesis of a different origin and/or a different transmission route. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New Specific Equation to Estimate Resting Energy Expenditure in Severely Obese Patients

Calculating the estimated resting energy expenditure (REE) in severely obese patients is useful, but there is controversy concerning the effectiveness of available prediction equations (PE) using body weight (BW). We evaluated the efficacy of REE equations against indirect calorimetry (IC) in severely obese subjects and aimed to develop a new equation based on body composition compartments. One hundred and twenty severely obese patients had their REE measured (MREE) by IC and compared to the most commonly used PE (Harris-Benedict (HB), Ireton-Jones, Owen, and Mifflin St. Jeor). In a random sample (n = 60), a new REE equation based on fat-free mass (FFM) was developed and validated. All PE studied failed to estimate REE in severe obesity (low concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and limits of agreement of nearly 50% of the sample +/- 10% of MREE). The HB equation using actual BW exhibited good results for all samples when compared to IC (2,117 +/- 518 kcal/day by HB vs. 2,139 +/- 423 kcal/day by MREE, P > 0.01); these results were blunted when patients were separated by gender (2,771 vs. 2,586 kcal/day, P < 0.001 in males and 1,825 vs. 1,939 kcal/day, P < 0.001 in females). A new resting energy expenditure equation prediction was developed using FFM, Horie-Waitzberg, & Gonzalez, expressed as 560.43 + (5.39 x BW) + (14.14 x FFM). The new resting energy expenditure equation prediction, which uses FFM and BW, demonstrates higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard PE in patients when compared to MREE (2,129 +/- 45 kcal/day vs. 2,139 +/- 423 kcal/day, respectively, P = 0.1). The new equation developed to estimate REE, which takes into account both FFM and BW, provides better results than currently available equations.