Models of Dispersal and Diversification

Ecology and evolutionary biology is the study of life on this planet. One of the many methods applied to answering the great diversity of questions regarding the lives and characteristics of individual organisms, is the utilization of mathematical models. Such models are used in a wide variety of ways. Some help us to reason, functioning as aids to, or substitutes for, our own fallible logic, thus making argumentation and thinking clearer. Models which help our reasoning can lead to conceptual clarification; by expressing ideas in algebraic terms, the relationship between different concepts become clearer. Other mathematical models are used to better understand yet more complicated models, or to develop mathematical tools for their analysis. Though helping us to reason and being used as tools in the craftmanship of science, many models do not tell us much about the real biological phenomena we are, at least initially, interested in. The main reason for this is that any mathematical model is a simplification of the real world, reducing the complexity and variety of interactions and idiosynchracies of individual organisms. What such models can tell us, however, both is and has been very valuable throughout the history of ecology and evolution. Minimally, a model simplifying the complex world can tell us that in principle, the patterns produced in a model could also be produced in the real world. We can never know how different a simplified mathematical representation is from the real world, but the similarity models do strive for, gives us confidence that their results could apply. This thesis deals with a variety of different models, used for different purposes. One model deals with how one can measure and analyse invasions; the expanding phase of invasive species. Earlier analyses claims to have shown that such invasions can be a regulated phenomena, that higher invasion speeds at a given point in time will lead to a reduction in speed. Two simple mathematical models show that analysis on this particular measure of invasion speed need not be evidence of regulation. In the context of dispersal evolution, two models acting as proof-of-principle are presented. Parent-offspring conflict emerges when there are different evolutionary optima for adaptive behavior for parents and offspring. We show that the evolution of dispersal distances can entail such a conflict, and that under parental control of dispersal (as, for example, in higher plants) wider dispersal kernels are optimal. We also show that dispersal homeostasis can be optimal; in a setting where dispersal decisions (to leave or stay in a natal patch) are made, strategies that divide their seeds or eggs into fractions that disperse or not, as opposed to randomized for each seed, can prevail. We also present a model of the evolution of bet-hedging strategies; evolutionary adaptations that occur despite their fitness, on average, being lower than a competing strategy. Such strategies can win in the long run because they have a reduced variance in fitness coupled with a reduction in mean fitness, and fitness is of a multiplicative nature across generations, and therefore sensitive to variability. This model is used for conceptual clarification; by developing a population genetical model with uncertain fitness and expressing genotypic variance in fitness as a product between individual level variance and correlations between individuals of a genotype. We arrive at expressions that intuitively reflect two of the main categorizations of bet-hedging strategies; conservative vs diversifying and within- vs between-generation bet hedging. In addition, this model shows that these divisions in fact are false dichotomies.

Air Fleet and Facility Planning via Optimal Control Models

A study is presented which is aimed at developing techniques suitable for effective planning and efficient operation of fleets of aircraft typical of the air force of a developing country. An important aspect of fleet management, the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet, is considered. For analysis purposes, it is assumed that the planes operate in a single flying-base repair-depot environment. The perennial problem of resource allocation for fleet and facility buildup that faces planners is modeled and solved as an optimal control problem. These models contain two "policy" variables representing investments in aircraft and repair facilities. The feasibility of decentralized control is explored by assuming the two policy variables are under the control of two independent decisionmakers guided by different and not often well coordinated objectives.

Air Fleet and Facility Planning via Optimal Control Models

A study is presented which is aimed at developing techniques suitable for effective planning and efficient operation of fleets of aircraft typical of the air force of a developing country. An important aspect of fleet management, the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet, is considered. For analysis purposes, it is assumed that the planes operate in a single flying-base repair-depot environment. The perennial problem of resource allocation for fleet and facility buildup that faces planners is modeled and solved as an optimal control problem. These models contain two "policy" variables representing investments in aircraft and repair facilities. The feasibility of decentralized control is explored by assuming the two policy variables are under the control of two independent decisionmakers guided by different and not often well coordinated objectives.

Applications of Treatment Effects Models and Semiparametric Estimation

This thesis is composed of an introductory chapter and four applications each of them constituting an own chapter. The common element underlying each of the chapters is the econometric methodology. The applications rely mostly on the leading econometric techniques related to estimation of causal effects. The first chapter introduces the econometric techniques that are employed in the remaining chapters. Chapter 2 studies the effects of shocking news on student performance. It exploits the fact that the school shooting in Kauhajoki in 2008 coincided with the matriculation examination period of that fall. It shows that the performance of men declined due to the news of the school shooting. For women the similar pattern remains unobserved. Chapter 3 studies the effects of minimum wage on employment by employing the original Card and Krueger (1994; CK) and Neumark and Wascher (2000; NW) data together with the changes-in-changes (CIC) estimator. As the main result it shows that the employment effect of an increase in the minimum wage is positive for small fast-food restaurants and negative for big fast-food restaurants. Therefore, it shows that the controversial positive employment effect reported by CK is overturned for big fast-food restaurants and that the NW data are shown, in contrast to their original results, to provide support for the positive employment effect. Chapter 4 employs the state-specific U.S. data (collected by Cohen and Einav [2003; CE]) on traffic fatalities to re-evaluate the effects of seat belt laws on the traffic fatalities by using the CIC estimator. It confirms the CE results that on the average an implementation of a mandatory seat belt law results in an increase in the seat belt usage rate and a decrease in the total fatality rate. In contrast to CE, it also finds evidence on compensating-behavior theory, which is observed especially in the states by the border of the U.S. Chapter 5 studies the life cycle consumption in Finland, with the special interest laid on the baby boomers and the older households. It shows that the baby boomers smooth their consumption over the life cycle more than other generations. It also shows that the old households smoothed their life cycle consumption more as a result of the recession in the 1990s, compared to young households.

Nonsingular cosmological models: the massive scalar field case

The nonminimal coupling of a massive self-interacting scalar field with a gravitational field is studied. Spontaneous symmetry breaking occurs in the open universe even when the sign on the mass term is positive. In contrast to grand unified theories, symmetry breakdown is more important for the early universe and it is restored only in the limit of an infinite expansion. Symmetry breakdown is shown to occur in flat and closed universes when the mass term carries a wrong sign. The model has a naturally defined effective gravitational coupling coefficient which is rendered time-dependent due to the novel symmetry breakdown. It changes sign below a critical value of the cosmic scale factor indicating the onset of a repulsive field. The presence of the mass term severely alters the behaviour of ordinary matter and radiation in the early universe. The total energy density becomes negative in a certain domain. These features make possible a nonsingular cosm

Polypeptide models of collagen. II. Solution properties of (Pro-Gly-Phe)n

The conformation of (Pro-Gly-Phe)n in trifluoroethanol was investigated using CD, nmr and ir techniques. After making appropriate correction for the contribution of the phenylalanine chromophore to the observed CD spectra of the polytripeptide at several temperatures, it is found that (Pro-Gly-Phe)n can exist in a partially triple-helical conformation in this solvent a t low temperatures. The nmr and ir data support this conclusion. In conjunction with recent theoretical sutdies, our data offer an explanation for the preferential occurrence of the Phe residue in position 2 of the tripeptide sequence Gly-R2-R3, in collagen.

Synthetic peptide models for the redox-active disulfide loop of glutaredoxin. Conformational studies

Two cyclic peptide disulfides Boc-Cys-Pro-X-Cys-NHMe (X = L-Tyr or L-Phe) have been synthesized as models for the 14-membered redox-active disulfide loop of glutaredoxin. 'H NMR studies at 270 MHz in chloroform solutions establish a type I 0-turn conformation for the Pro-X segment in both peptides, stabilized by a 4-1 hydrogen bond between the Cys(1) CO and Cys(4) NH groups. Nuclear Overhauser effects establish that the aromatic ring in the X = Phe peptide is oriented over the central peptide unit. In dimethyl sulfoxide solutions two conformational species are observed in slow exchange on the NMR time scale, for both peptides. These are assigned to type I and type I1 p-turn structures with -Pro-Tyr(Phe)-as the corner residues. The structural assignments are based on correlation of NMR parameters with model 14-membered cyclic cystine peptides with Pro-X spacers. Circular dichroism studies based on the -S-Sn- u* transition suggest a structural change in the disulfide bridge with changing solvent polarity, establishing conformational coupling between the peptide backbone and the disulfide linkage in these systems.

Direct stability evaluation of power systems with detailed generator models using structure-preserving energy functions

Energy-based direct methods for transient stability analysis are potentially useful both as offline tools for planning purposes as well as for online security assessment. In this paper, a novel structure-preserving energy function (SPEF) is developed using the philosophy of structure-preserving model for the system and detailed generator model including flux decay, transient saliency, automatic voltage regulator (AVR), exciter and damper winding. A simpler and yet general expression for the SPEF is also derived which can simplify the computation of the energy function. The system equations and the energy function are derived using the centre-of-inertia (COI) formulation and the system loads are modelled as arbitrary functions of the respective bus voltages. Application of the proposed SPEF to transient stability evaluation of power systems is illustrated with numerical examples.

Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Association between molecular variation in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) locus and migration propensity in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Habitat fragmentation produces patches of suitable habitat surrounded by unfavourable matrix habitat. A species may persist in such a fragmented landscape in an equilibrium between the extinctions and recolonizations of local populations, thus forming a metapopulation. Migration between local populations is necessary for the long-term persistence of a metapopulation. The Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) forms a metapopulation in the Åland islands in Finland. There is migration between the populations, the extent of which is affected by several environmental factors and variation in the phenotype of individual butterflies. Different allelic forms of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) has been identified as a possible genetic factor influencing flight performance and migration rate in this species. The frequency of a certain Pgi allele, Pgi-f, follows the same pattern in relation to population age and connectivity as migration propensity. Furthermore, variation in flight metabolic performance, which is likely to affect migration propensity, has been linked to genetic variation in Pgi or a closely linked locus. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between Pgi genotype and the migration propensity in the Glanville fritillary both at the individual and population levels using a statistical modelling approach. A mark-release-recapture (MRR) study was conducted in a habitat patch network of M. cinxia in Åland to collect data on the movements of individual butterflies. Larval samples from the study area were also collected for population level examinations. Each butterfly and larva was genotyped at the Pgi locus. The MRR data was parameterised with two mathematical models of migration: the Virtual Migration Model (VM) and the spatially explicit diffusion model. VM model predicted and observed numbers of emigrants from populations with high and low frequencies of Pgi-f were compared. Posterior predictive data sets were simulated based on the parameters of the diffusion model. Lack-of-fit of observed values to the model predicted values of several descriptors of movements were detected, and the effect of Pgi genotype on the deviations was assessed by randomizations including the genotype information. This study revealed a possible difference in the effect of Pgi genotype on migration propensity between the two sexes in the Glanville fritillary. The females with and males without the Pgi-f allele moved more between habitat patches, which is probably related to differences in the function of flight in the two sexes. Females may use their high flight capacity to migrate between habitat patches to find suitable oviposition sites, whereas males may use it to acquire mates by keeping a territory and fighting off other intruding males, possibly causing them to emigrate. The results were consistent across different movement descriptors and at the individual and population levels. The effect of Pgi is likely to be dependent on the structure of the landscape and the prevailing environmental conditions.

Peptide models for b-turns.A circular dichroism study

The circular dichroism spectra of four 0-turn model peptides, Z-Aib-Pro-Aib-Pro- OMe (l), Piv-Pro-Aib-NHMe (2), Piv-Pro-D-Ala-NHMe (3) and Piv-Pro-Val-NHMe (4) have been examined under a wide range of solvent conditions, using methanol, hexafluoroisopropanol and cyclohexane. Type I and Type I1 0-turns have been observed for peptides 1 and 2 respectively, in the solid state, while the Pro-D-Ala sequence adopts a Type I1 Sturn in a related peptide crystal structure. A class C spectrum is observed for 1 in various solvents, suggesting a variant of a Type I(II1) structure. The Type I1 f3-turn is characterized by a CD spectrum having two positive CD bands at - 230 nm and - 202 nm, a feature observed in Piv-Pro- D-Ala-NHMe in cyclohexane and methanol and for Piv-Pro-Aib-NHMe in methanol. Peptide 2 exhibits solvent dependent CD spectra, which may be rationalized by considering Type 11, I11 and V reverse turn structures. Piv-Pro- Val-NHMe adopts nonaturn structures in polar solvents, but exhibits a class B spectrum in cyclohexane suggesting a population of Type I &turns.

Assessment of insect occurrence in boreal forests based on satellite imagery and field measurements.

The presence/absence data of twenty-seven forest insect taxa (e.g. Retinia resinella, Formica spp., Pissodes spp., several scolytids) and recorded environmental variation were used to investigate the applicability of modelling insect occurrence based on satellite imagery. The sampling was based on 1800 sample plots (25 m by 25 m) placed along the sides of 30 equilateral triangles (side 1 km) in a fragmented forest area (approximately 100 km2) in Evo, S Finland. The triangles were overlaid on land use maps interpreted from satellite images (Landsat TM 30 m multispectral scanner imagery 1991) and digitized geological maps. Insect occurrence was explained using either environmental variables measured in the field or those interpreted from the land use and geological maps. The fit of logistic regression models varied between species, possibly because some species may be associated with the characteristics of single trees while other species with stand characteristics. The occurrence of certain insect species at least, especially those associated with Scots pine, could be relatively accurately assessed indirectly on the basis of satellite imagery and geological maps. Models based on both remotely sensed and geological data better predicted the distribution of forest insects except in the case of Xylechinus pilosus, Dryocoetes sp. and Trypodendron lineatum, where the differences were relatively small in favour of the models based on field measurements. The number of species was related to habitat compartment size and distance from the habitat edge calculated from the land use maps, but logistic regressions suggested that other environmental variables in general masked the effect of these variables in species occurrence at the present scale.