An introduction to computational intelligence paradigms

This chapter presents an introduction to computational intelligence (CI) paradigms. A number of CI definitions are first presented to provide a general concept of this new, innovative computing field. The main constituents of CI, which include artificial neural networks, fuzzy systems, and evolutionary algorithms, are explained. In addition, different hybrid CI models arisen from synergy of neural, fuzzy, and evolutionary computational paradigms are discussed.

Short term load forecasting using a hybrid neural network

Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is very important from the power systems grid operation point of view. STLF involves forecasting load demand in a short term time frame. The short term time frame may consist of half hourly prediction up to weekly prediction. Accurate forecasting would benefit the utility in terms of reliability and stability of the grid ensuring adequate supply is present to meet with the load demand. Apart from that it would also affect the financial performance of the utility company. An accurate forecast would result in better savings while maintaining the security of the grid. This paper outlines the STLF using a novel hybrid online learning neural network, known as the Gaussian Regression (GR). This new hybrid neural network is a combination of two existing online learning neural networks which are the Gaussian Adaptive Resonance Theory (GA) and the Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). Both GA and GRNN implemented online learning, but each of them suffers from limitation. Originally GA is used for unsupervised clustering by compressing the training samples into several categories. A supervised version of GA is available, namely Gaussian ARTMAP (GAM). However, the GAM is still not capable on solving regression problem. On the other hand, GRNN is designed for solving real value estimation (regression) problem, but the learning process would involve of memorizing all training samples, hence high computational cost. The hybrid GR is considered an enhanced version of GRNN with compression ability while still maintains online learning properties. Simulation results show that GR has comparable prediction accuracy and has less prototype as compared to the original GRNN as well as the Support Vector Regression.

Managing manufacturing technology investments: An intelligent learning system approach

This paper proposes an intelligent decision-support system for managing manufacturing technology investments. The intelligent system is a hybrid integration of two information processing modules: case-based reasoning and fuzzy ARTMAP – a supervised adaptive resonance theory (ART) neural network with a multi-dimensional map. The developed system captures a company's strategic information, provides facilities to quantify qualitative attributes and analyses them alongside the quantitative attributes in an evaluation framework. Through the system, similar cases can be retrieved to enable managers to make effective use of their knowledge and experience of previously delivered technologies and projects as an input to the prioritization of future projects. Other salient features of the system include its ability to adapt and absorb new knowledge and responses pertaining to significant events in the business environment, as well as to extract and elucidate information from the knowledge database for explaining and justifying its analysis. The applicability of the developed system is evaluated using a real case study in collaboration with a pharmaceutical manufacturing firm.

Online pattern classification with multiple neural network systems: an experimental study

In this paper, an empirical study of the development and application of a committee of neural networks on online pattern classification tasks is presented. A multiple classifier framework is designed by adopting an Adaptive Resonance Theory-based (ART) autonomously learning neural network as the building block. A number of algorithms for combining outputs from multiple neural classifiers are considered, and two benchmark data sets have been used to evaluate the applicability of the proposed system. Different learning strategies coupling offline and online learning approaches, as well as different input pattern representation schemes, including the "ensemble" and "modular" methods, have been examined experimentally. Benefits and shortcomings of each approach are systematically analyzed and discussed. The results are comparable, and in some cases superior, with those from other classification algorithms. The experiments demonstrate the potentials of the proposed multiple neural network systems in offering an alternative to handle online pattern classification tasks in possibly nonstationary environments.

The application of an ensemble of boosted elman networks to time series prediction : a benchmark study

In this paper, the application of multiple Elman neural networks to time series data regression problems is studied. An ensemble of Elman networks is formed by boosting to enhance the performance of the individual networks. A modified version of the AdaBoost algorithm is employed to integrate the predictions from multiple networks. Two benchmark time series data sets, i.e., the Sunspot and Box-Jenkins gas furnace problems, are used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed system. The simulation results reveal that an ensemble of boosted Elman networks can achieve a higher degree of generalization as well as performance than that of the individual networks. The results are compared with those from other learning systems, and implications of the performance are discussed.

Special issue : Computational intelligence models for image processing and information reasoning

Computational Intelligence (CI) models comprise robust computing methodologies with a high level of machine learning quotient. CI models, in general, are useful for designing computerized intelligent systems/machines that possess useful characteristics mimicking human behaviors and capabilities in solving complex tasks, e.g., learning, adaptation, and evolution. Examples of some popular CI models include fuzzy systems, artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, multi-agent systems, decision trees, rough set theory, knowledge-based systems, and hybrid of these models. This special issue highlights how different computational intelligence models, coupled with other complementary techniques, can be used to handle problems encountered in image processing and information reasoning.

Bayesian model averaging of load demand forecasts from neural network models

Creating a set of a number of neural network (NN) models in an ensemble and accumulating them can achieve better overview capability as compared to single neural network. Neural network ensembles are designed to provide solutions to particular problems. Many researchers and academicians have adopted this NN ensemble technique, especially in machine learning, and has been applied in various fields of engineering, medicine and information technology. This paper present a robust aggregation methodology for load demand forecasting based on Bayesian Model Averaging of a set of neural network models in an ensemble. This paper estimate a vector of coefficient for individual NN models' forecasts using validation data-set. These coefficients, also known as weights, are equal to posterior probabilities of the models generating the forecasts. These BMA weights are then used in combining forecasts generated from NN models with test data-set. By comparing the Bayesian results with the Simple Averaging method, it was observed that benefits are obtained by utilizing an advanced method like BMA for forecast combinations.

Variance-covariance based weighing for neural network ensembles

Neural network (NN) is a popular artificial intelligence technique for solving complicated problems due to their inherent capabilities. However generalization in NN can be harmed by a number of factors including parameter's initialization, inappropriate network topology and setting parameters of the training process itself. Forecast combinations of NN models have the potential for improved generalization and lower training time. A weighted averaging based on Variance-Covariance method that assigns greater weight to the forecasts producing lower error, instead of equal weights is practiced in this paper. While implementing the method, combination of forecasts is done with all candidate models in one experiment and with the best selected models in another experiment. It is observed during the empirical analysis that forecasting accuracy is improved by combining the best individual NN models. Another finding of this study is that reducing the number of NN models increases the diversity and, hence, accuracy.