Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Development of a data mining-based analysis framework for multi-attribute construction project information

Data mining techniques extract repeated and useful patterns from a large data set that in turn are utilized to predict the outcome of future events. The main purpose of the research presented in this paper is to investigate data mining strategies and develop an efficient framework for multi-attribute project information analysis to predict the performance of construction projects. The research team first reviewed existing data mining algorithms, applied them to systematically analyze a large project data set collected by the survey, and finally proposed a data-mining-based decision support framework for project performance prediction. To evaluate the potential of the framework, a case study was conducted using data collected from 139 capital projects and analyzed the relationship between use of information technology and project cost performance. The study results showed that the proposed framework has potential to promote fast, easy to use, interpretable, and accurate project data analysis.

Flexible airport terminal design : towards a framework

Flexibility is a key driver of any successful design, specifically in highly unpredictable environment such as airport terminal. Ever growing aviation industry requires airport terminals to be planned and constructed in such a way that will allow flexibility for future design, alteration and redevelopment. The concept of flexibility in terminal design is a relatively new initiative, where existing rules or guidelines are not adequate to assist designers. A shift towards flexible design concept would allow terminal buildings to be designed to accommodate future changes and to make passengers’ journey as simple, timely and hassle free as possible. Currently available research indicates that a theoretical framework on flexible design approach for airport terminals would facilitate the future design process. The generic principles of flexibility are investigated in the current research to incorporate flexible design approaches within the process of an airport terminal design. A conceptual framework is proposed herein, which is expected to ascertain flexibility to current passenger terminal facilities within their corresponding locations as well as in future design and expansion.

Quantum key distribution in the classical authenticated key exchange framework

Key establishment is a crucial primitive for building secure channels in a multi-party setting. Without quantum mechanics, key establishment can only be done under the assumption that some computational problem is hard. Since digital communication can be easily eavesdropped and recorded, it is important to consider the secrecy of information anticipating future algorithmic and computational discoveries which could break the secrecy of past keys, violating the secrecy of the confidential channel. Quantum key distribution (QKD) can be used generate secret keys that are secure against any future algorithmic or computational improvements. QKD protocols still require authentication of classical communication, although existing security proofs of QKD typically assume idealized authentication. It is generally considered folklore that QKD when used with computationally secure authentication is still secure against an unbounded adversary, provided the adversary did not break the authentication during the run of the protocol. We describe a security model for quantum key distribution extending classical authenticated key exchange (AKE) security models. Using our model, we characterize the long-term security of the BB84 QKD protocol with computationally secure authentication against an eventually unbounded adversary. By basing our model on traditional AKE models, we can more readily compare the relative merits of various forms of QKD and existing classical AKE protocols. This comparison illustrates in which types of adversarial environments different quantum and classical key agreement protocols can be secure.

Anticipating user experience with a desired product : the AUX Framework

Positive user experience (UX) has become a key factor in designing interactive products. It acts as a differentiator which can determine a product’s success on the mature market. However, current UX frameworks and methods do not fully support the early stages of product design and development. During these phases, assessment of UX is challenging as no actual user-product interaction can be tested. This qualitative study investigated anticipated user experience (AUX) to address this problem. Using the co-discovery method, participants were asked to imagine a desired product, anticipate experiences with it, and discuss their views with another participant. Fourteen sub-categories emerged from the data, and relationships among them were defined through co-occurrence analysis. These data formed the basis of the AUX framework which consists of two networks which elucidate 1) how users imagine a desired product and 2) how they anticipate positive experiences with that product. Through this AUX framework, important factors in the process of imagining future products and experiences were learnt, including the way in which these factors interrelate. Focusing on and exploring each component of the two networks in the framework will allow designers to obtain a deeper understanding of the required pragmatic and hedonic qualities of product, intended uses of product, user characteristics, potential contexts of experience, and anticipated emotions embedded within the experience. This understanding, in turn, will help designers to better foresee users’ underlying needs and to focus on the most important aspects of their positive experience. Therefore, the use of the AUX framework in the early stages of product development will contribute to the design for pleasurable UX.

Tooth fracture risk analysis based on a new finite element dental structure models using micro-CT data

The finite element (FE) analysis is an effective method to study the strength and predict the fracture risk of endodontically-treated teeth. This paper presents a rapid method developed to generate a comprehensive tooth FE model using data retrieved from micro-computed tomography (μCT). With this method, the inhomogeneity of material properties of teeth was included into the model without dividing the tooth model into different regions. The material properties of the tooth were assumed to be related to the mineral density. The fracture risk at different tooth portions was assessed for root canal treatments. The micro-CT images of a tooth were processed by a Matlab software programme and the CT numbers were retrieved. The tooth contours were obtained with thresholding segmentation using Amira. The inner and outer surfaces of the tooth were imported into Solidworks and a three-dimensional (3D) tooth model was constructed. An assembly of the tooth model with the periodontal ligament (PDL) layer and surrounding bone was imported into ABAQUS. The material properties of the tooth were calculated from the retrieved CT numbers via ABAQUS user's subroutines. Three root canal geometries (original and two enlargements) were investigated. The proposed method in this study can generate detailed 3D finite element models of a tooth with different root canal enlargements and filling materials, and would be very useful for the assessment of the fracture risk at different tooth portions after root canal treatments.

Introduction and Framework for Understanding

This chapter opens with a description of the empirical realities that shape and have shaped many women's choice to sell sex – realities which have remained constant for some time now. It provides two frameworks for understanding, first, the shifting discourses that currently constitute prostitution, and second, prostitution policies. The chapter also provides a narrative framework in which recent policy changes can be placed.

A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks

The popularity of Bayesian Network modelling of complex domains using expert elicitation has raised questions of how one might validate such a model given that no objective dataset exists for the model. Past attempts at delineating a set of tests for establishing confidence in an entirely expert-elicited model have focused on single types of validity stemming from individual sources of uncertainty within the model. This paper seeks to extend the frameworks proposed by earlier researchers by drawing upon other disciplines where measuring latent variables is also an issue. We demonstrate that even in cases where no data exist at all there is a broad range of validity tests that can be used to establish confidence in the validity of a Bayesian Belief Network.

Molecular structure of the mineral svanbergite SrAl3(PO 4,SO4)2(OH)6 - A vibrational spectroscopic study

The mineral svanbergite SrAl 3(PO 4,SO 4) 2(OH) 6 is a hydroxy phosphate-sulphate mineral belonging to the beudantite subgroup of alunites and has been characterised by vibrational spectroscopy. Bands at various wavenumbers were assigned to the different vibrational modes of svanbergite, which were then associated with the structure of the mineral. Bands were primarily assigned to phosphate and sulphate stretching and bending modes. Two symmetric stretching modes for both phosphate and sulphate supported the concept of non-equivalent phosphate and sulphate units in the mineral structure. Bands in the OH stretching region enabled hydrogen bond distances to be calculated. Comparison of the hydrogen bond distances and the calculated hydrogen bond distances from the structure models indicates that hydrogen bonding in svanbergite occurs between the two OH units rather than OH to SO42- units.

Zoledronic acid preserves bone structure and increases survival but does not limit tumour incidence in a prostate cancer bone metastasis model

Background The bisphosphonate, zoledronic acid (ZOL), can inhibit osteoclasts leading to decreased osteoclastogenesis and osteoclast activity in bone. Here, we used a mixed osteolytic/osteoblastic murine model of bone-metastatic prostate cancer, RM1(BM), to determine how inhibiting osteolysis with ZOL affects the ability of these cells to establish metastases in bone, the integrity of the tumour-bearing bones and the survival of the tumour-bearing mice. Methods The model involves intracardiac injection for arterial dissemination of the RM1(BM) cells in C57BL/6 mice. ZOL treatment was given via subcutaneous injections on days 0, 4, 8 and 12, at 20 and 100 µg/kg doses. Bone integrity was assessed by micro-computed tomography and histology with comparison to untreated mice. The osteoclast and osteoblast activity was determined by measuring serum tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRAP 5b) and osteocalcin, respectively. Mice were euthanased according to predetermined criteria and survival was assessed using Kaplan Meier plots. Findings Micro-CT and histological analysis showed that treatment of mice with ZOL from the day of intracardiac injection of RM1(BM) cells inhibited tumour-induced bone lysis, maintained bone volume and reduced the calcification of tumour-induced endochondral osteoid material. ZOL treatment also led to a decreased serum osteocalcin and TRAP 5b levels. Additionally, treated mice showed increased survival compared to vehicle treated controls. However, ZOL treatment did not inhibit the cells ability to metastasise to bone as the number of bone-metastases was similar in both treated and untreated mice. Conclusions ZOL treatment provided significant benefits for maintaining the integrity of tumour-bearing bones and increased the survival of tumour bearing mice, though it did not prevent establishment of bone-metastases in this model. From the mechanistic view, these observations confirm that tumour-induced bone lysis is not a requirement for establishment of these bone tumours.