Testing of combined heating systems for small houses: Improved procedures for whole system test methods : Deliverable 2.3

Dynamic system test methods for heating systems were developed and applied by the institutes SERC and SP from Sweden, INES from France and SPF from Switzerland already before the MacSheep project started. These test methods followed the same principle: a complete heating system – including heat generators, storage, control etc., is installed on the test rig; the test rig software and hardware simulates and emulates the heat load for space heating and domestic hot water of a single family house, while the unit under test has to act autonomously to cover the heat demand during a representative test cycle. Within the work package 2 of the MacSheep project these similar – but different – test methods were harmonized and improved. The work undertaken includes:  • Harmonization of the physical boundaries of the unit under test. • Harmonization of the boundary conditions of climate and load. • Definition of an approach to reach identical space heat load in combination with an autonomous control of the space heat distribution by the unit under test. • Derivation and validation of new six day and a twelve day test profiles for direct extrapolation of test results.   The new harmonized test method combines the advantages of the different methods that existed before the MacSheep project. The new method is a benchmark test, which means that the load for space heating and domestic hot water preparation will be identical for all tested systems, and that the result is representative for the performance of the system over a whole year. Thus, no modelling and simulation of the tested system is needed in order to obtain the benchmark results for a yearly cycle. The method is thus also applicable to products for which simulation models are not available yet. Some of the advantages of the new whole system test method and performance rating compared to the testing and energy rating of single components are:  • Interaction between the different components of a heating system, e.g. storage, solar collector circuit, heat pump, control, etc. are included and evaluated in this test. • Dynamic effects are included and influence the result just as they influence the annual performance in the field. • Heat losses are influencing the results in a more realistic way, since they are evaluated under "real installed" and representative part-load conditions rather than under single component steady state conditions.   The described method is also suited for the development process of new systems, where it replaces time-consuming and costly field testing with the advantage of a higher accuracy of the measured data (compared to the typically used measurement equipment in field tests) and identical, thus comparable boundary conditions. Thus, the method can be used for system optimization in the test bench under realistic operative conditions, i.e. under relevant operating environment in the lab.   This report describes the physical boundaries of the tested systems, as well as the test procedures and the requirements for both the unit under test and the test facility. The new six day and twelve day test profiles are also described as are the validation results.

Recent developments in statistical methods for detecting genetic loci affecting phenotypic variability

A number of recent works have introduced statistical methods for detecting genetic loci that affect phenotypic variability, which we refer to as variability-controlling quantitative trait loci (vQTL). These are genetic variants whose allelic state predicts how much phenotype values will vary about their expected means. Such loci are of great potential interest in both human and non-human genetic studies, one reason being that a detected vQTL could represent a previously undetected interaction with other genes or environmental factors. The simultaneous publication of these new methods in different journals has in many cases precluded opportunity for comparison. We survey some of these methods, the respective trade-offs they imply, and the connections between them. The methods fall into three main groups: classical non-parametric, fully parametric, and semi-parametric two-stage approximations. Choosing between alternatives involves balancing the need for robustness, flexibility, and speed. For each method, we identify important assumptions and limitations, including those of practical importance, such as their scope for including covariates and random effects. We show in simulations that both parametric methods and their semi-parametric approximations can give elevated false positive rates when they ignore mean-variance relationships intrinsic to the data generation process. We conclude that choice of method depends on the trait distribution, the need to include non-genetic covariates, and the population size and structure, coupled with a critical evaluation of how these fit with the assumptions of the statistical model.

Técnicas de avaliação da confiabilidade em estruturas de concreto armado

Neste trabalho é dado ênfase à inclusão das incertezas na avaliação do comportamento estrutural, objetivando uma melhor representação das características do sistema e uma quantificação do significado destas incertezas no projeto. São feitas comparações entre as técnicas clássicas existentes de análise de confiabilidade, tais como FORM, Simulação Direta Monte Carlo (MC) e Simulação Monte Carlo com Amostragem por Importância Adaptativa (MCIS), e os métodos aproximados da Superfície de Resposta( RS) e de Redes Neurais Artificiais(ANN). Quando possível, as comparações são feitas salientando- se as vantagens e inconvenientes do uso de uma ou de outra técnica em problemas com complexidades crescentes. São analisadas desde formulações com funções de estado limite explícitas até formulações implícitas com variabilidade espacial de carregamento e propriedades dos materiais, incluindo campos estocásticos. É tratado, em especial, o problema da análise da confiabilidade de estruturas de concreto armado incluindo o efeito da variabilidade espacial de suas propriedades. Para tanto é proposto um modelo de elementos finitos para a representação do concreto armado que incorpora as principais características observadas neste material. Também foi desenvolvido um modelo para a geração de campos estocásticos multidimensionais não Gaussianos para as propriedades do material e que é independente da malha de elementos finitos, assim como implementadas técnicas para aceleração das avaliações estruturais presentes em qualquer das técnicas empregadas. Para o tratamento da confiabilidade através da técnica da Superfície de Resposta, o algoritmo desenvolvido por Rajashekhar et al(1993) foi implementado. Já para o tratamento através de Redes Neurais Artificias, foram desenvolvidos alguns códigos para a simulação de redes percéptron multicamada e redes com função de base radial e então implementados no algoritmo de avaliação de confiabilidade desenvolvido por Shao et al(1997). Em geral, observou-se que as técnicas de simulação tem desempenho bastante baixo em problemas mais complexos, sobressaindo-se a técnica de primeira ordem FORM e as técnicas aproximadas da Superfície de Resposta e de Redes Neurais Artificiais, embora com precisão prejudicada devido às aproximações presentes.

A generalization of judds method of out-steady-state comparisons in perfect foresight models

We show that Judd (1982)’s method can be applied to any finite system, contrary to what he claimed in 1987. An example shows how to employ the technic to study monetary models in presence of capital accumulation.

The impact of structured teaching methods on the quality of education

This paper estimates the impact of the use of structured methods on the quality of education of the students in primary public school in Brazil. Structure methods encompass a range of pedagogical and managerial instruments applied to the education system. In recent years, several municipalities in the State of São Paulo have contracted out private educational providers to implement these structured methods in their schooling system. Their pedagogical proposal involves structuring curriculum contents, elaboration and use of teachers and students textbooks, and training and supervision of the teachers and instructors. Using a difference in differences estimation strategy, we find that the fourth and eighth grader students in the municipalities with structured methods performed better in Portuguese and Math than students in municipalities not exposed to the methods. We find no differences in approval rates. However, a robustness check is not able to discard the possibility that unobserved municipal characteristics may affect the results.

Non-durable consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil: panel-data analysis at the state level

Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.

Convergence analysis of sampling-based decomposition methods for risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs

We consider a class of sampling-based decomposition methods to solve risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs. We prove a formula for the computation of the cuts necessary to build the outer linearizations of the recourse functions. This formula can be used to obtain an efficient implementation of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming applied to convex nonlinear problems. We prove the almost sure convergence of these decomposition methods when the relatively complete recourse assumption holds. We also prove the almost sure convergence of these algorithms when applied to risk-averse multistage stochastic linear programs that do not satisfy the relatively complete recourse assumption. The analysis is first done assuming the underlying stochastic process is interstage independent and discrete, with a finite set of possible realizations at each stage. We then indicate two ways of extending the methods and convergence analysis to the case when the process is interstage dependent.

H-infinity control design for time-delay linear systems: a rational transfer function based approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

First record of Trypanosoma sp. (Protozoa: Kinetoplastida) in tuvira (Gymnotus aff. inaequilabiatus) in the Pantanal wetland, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil

O objetivo do presente estudo foi reportar a infecção por Trypanosoma sp. em tuviras (Gymnotus aff. inaequilabiatus) oriundas do Pantanal Sul-mato-grossense, Brasil. Dez peixes provenientes do rio Paraguai, Pantanal Sul-mato-grossense, foram avaliados quanto à presença de hemoflagelados. Tripomastigotas de Trypanosoma sp. foram observados nas extensões sanguíneas de três peixes (30% de prevalência), e algumas formas encontravam-se em divisão. Por meio do exame a fresco e da centrifugação do sangue em capilar de hematócrito como métodos para diagnóstico, a taxa de prevalência foi de 80%. Esse é o primeiro relato de Trypanosoma sp. em tuviras no Brasil.

FERRITINA: intervalos de referência para adultos no Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

Ferritin is a protein composed of heavy and light chains, non-covalently linked and which accommodates, in its core, thousands of atoms of iron. Furthermore, this protein represents the stock of iron in the body and it is characterized as an acute marker and predictor of diseases, such as iron deficiency anemia, hereditary hemochromatosis and others. Considering the variability of reference values and the analytical methods currently available, the aim of this work was to propose 95% confidence intervals for adults in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, after determining the average concentration of serum ferritin for both sexes, beyond its correlation with the age. We analyzed 385 blood samples, collected by venipuncture from individuals residing in the State, after 12-14 hours of fast. The populational sample had 169 men and 216 women between 18-59 years old, which filled a questionnaire on socioeconomic, food habits and accounts about previous and current diseases. The sample collections were itinerant and the results of erythrogram, fasting glucose, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, γ-glutamyl transferase, urea, creatinine, leukocyte count and platelets, beyond C-reactive protein, were issued to each participant, so that, after selection of the apparently healthy individuals, the dosage of serum ferritin was carried out. Statistical analysis was performed using the softwares SPSS 11.0 Windows version, Epi Info 3.3.2 and Graf instant pad (version 3.02), and the random population sample was single (finite population), for which the test of linear correlation and diagram of dispersion were also made. After selection of individuals and determination of serum ferritin, the most discrepant outliers were disregarded (N = 358, Men = 154/Women = 207) and the average value determined for the masculine sex individuals was 167,18 ng / dL; for the feminine sex individuals, the average value obtained was 81,55 ng / dL. Moreover, we found that 25% of men had values < 90,30 ng / dL; 50% ≤ 156,25 ng / dL and 75% ≤ 229,00 ng / dL. In the group of women, 25% had values < 38,80 ng / dL; 50% ≤ 65,00 ng / dL and 75% ≤ 119,00 ng / dL. Through the correlation coefficient (r = 0,23 with p = 0,003), it is possible to suggest the existence of positive linear correlation between age and serum ferritin for men. The correlation coefficient for women (r = 0,16 with p = 0,025) also confirms the existence of positive linear correlation between serum ferritin and age. Considering the analysis carried out and specific methods corroborating with the proposed benchmarks, we concluded that the average value found for men is higher than that found for women. Furthermore, this scenario rises with age for both sexes, and the 95% confidence intervals obtained were 74 ng/dL ≤ μ ≤ 89 ng/dL and 152ng/dL ≤ μ ≤183ng/dL for the feminine and masculine sex individuals respectively

Brucellosis due to Brucella suis in a swine herd associated with a human clinical case in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Brucella suis has been recognized as the major etiological agent of human brucellosis in areas free from Brucella melitensis infection. However, with changes in swine management, the occurrence of swine brucellosis has decreased as has the human incidence of B. suis infection. A swine brucellosis outbreak within a herd from Jaboticabal (So Paulo, Brazil) was detected in July 2006. The herd comprised approximately 300 sows and 1,500 finishing animals. Many sows within this herd experienced abortions, while others exhibited vaginal discharge; three sows suffered posterior paralysis. Among 271 sows, 254 (93.7%) tested positive for brucellosis by complement fixation, and among 62 randomly bled finishing animals, 17 (27.4%) also tested positive. The B. suis biovar 1 was cultured from 14 aborted fetuses and six sows. Brucella was identified using routine methods. Fourteen farm workers were tested using agglutination tests, with three workers showing evidence of Brucella antibody titers. A 39-year-old woman, who worked with maternal pigs and had direct contact with aborted fetuses, presented an agglutinating titer of 480 IU/mL and displayed clinical signs of infection. Our findings suggest that despite a reduction of swine brucellosis throughout Brazil, B. suis infection still occurs, thereby posing a zoonotic risk.

Occurrence of Ancylostoma in dogs, cats and public places from Andradina city, São Paulo state, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison of methodologies for degree-day estimation using numerical methods

O desenvolvimento de projetos relacionados ao desempenho de diversas culturas tem recebido aperfeiçoamento cada vez maior, incorporado a modelos matemáticos sendo indispensável à utilização de equações cada vez mais consistentes que possibilitem previsão e maior aproximação do comportamento real, diminuindo o erro na obtenção das estimativas. Entre as operações unitárias que demandam maior estudo estão aquelas relacionadas com o crescimento da cultura, caracterizadas pela temperatura ideal para o acréscimo de matéria seca. Pelo amplo uso dos métodos matemáticos na representação, análise e obtenção de estimativas de graus-dia, juntamente com a grande importância que a cultura da cana-de-açúcar tem para a economia brasileira, foi realizada uma avaliação dos modelos matemáticos comumente usados e dos métodos numéricos de integração na estimativa da disponibilidade de graus-dia para essa cultura, na região de Botucatu, Estado de São Paulo. Os modelos de integração, com discretização de 6 em 6 h, apresentaram resultados satisfatórios na estimativa de graus-dia. As metodologias tradicionais apresentaram desempenhos satisfatórios quanto à estimativa de grausdia com base na curva de temperatura horária para cada dia e para os agrupamentos de três, sete, 15 e 30 dias. Pelo método numérico de integração, a região de Botucatu, Estado de São Paulo, apresentou disponibilidade térmica anual média de 1.070,6 GD para a cultura da cana-de-açúcar.

Otimização topológica de estruturas termoelásticas tridimensionais

This work presents an optimization technique based on structural topology optimization methods, TOM, designed to solve problems of thermoelasticity 3D. The presented approach is based on the adjoint method of sensitivity analysis unified design and is intended to loosely coupled thermomechanical problems. The technique makes use of analytical expressions of sensitivities, enabling a reduction in the computational cost through the use of a coupled field adjoint equation, defined in terms the of temperature and displacement fields. The TOM used is based on the material aproach. Thus, to make the domain is composed of a continuous distribution of material, enabling the use of classical models in nonlinear programming optimization problem, the microstructure is considered as a porous medium and its constitutive equation is a function only of the homogenized relative density of the material. In this approach, the actual properties of materials with intermediate densities are penalized based on an artificial microstructure model based on the SIMP (Solid Isotropic Material with Penalty). To circumvent problems chessboard and reduce dependence on layout in relation to the final optimal initial mesh, caused by problems of numerical instability, restrictions on components of the gradient of relative densities were applied. The optimization problem is solved by applying the augmented Lagrangian method, the solution being obtained by applying the finite element method of Galerkin, the process of approximation using the finite element Tetra4. This element has the ability to interpolate both the relative density and the displacement components and temperature. As for the definition of the problem, the heat load is assumed in steady state, i.e., the effects of conduction and convection of heat does not vary with time. The mechanical load is assumed static and distributed

The Distribuition of Strongyloides stercoralis Frequency in Araraquara, São Paulo State - Brazil

Strongyloidiasis is a disease of emerging public health importance. A survey was conducted in Araraquara city, São Paulo state, Brazil, in order to evaluate the frequency distribution of Strongyloides stercoralis in the area. A total of 9582 single stool samples were examined by direct examination, and by the Coprotest and Rugai's methods from January 2005 to January 2007. Out of the total samples examined, 408 (4,3%) were found to be infected by S. stercoralis (143 men and 265 women). The months with the highest frequency (5,0 - 8,2%) of positive patients were February, September and December (2005); April and November (2006) and January (2007). The frequencies from the other months varied around 2,5 to 4,9%. It was concluded that strongyloidiasis is endemic in Araraquara, but in some months, which presented the highest temperatures followed by rainy periods, the frequencies are typical from hyperendemic areas.