Error, Confidence, and Cost in Engineering Computations

The questions that one should answer in engineering computations - deterministic, probabilistic/randomized, as well as heuristic - are (i) how good the computed results/outputs are and (ii) how much the cost in terms of amount of computation and the amount of storage utilized in getting the outputs is. The absolutely errorfree quantities as well as the completely errorless computations done in a natural process can never be captured by any means that we have at our disposal. While the computations including the input real quantities in nature/natural processes are exact, all the computations that we do using a digital computer or are carried out in an embedded form are never exact. The input data for such computations are also never exact because any measuring instrument has inherent error of a fixed order associated with it and this error, as a matter of hypothesis and not as a matter of assumption, is not less than 0.005 per cent. Here by error we imply relative error bounds. The fact that exact error is never known under any circumstances and any context implies that the term error is nothing but error-bounds. Further, in engineering computations, it is the relative error or, equivalently, the relative error-bounds (and not the absolute error) which is supremely important in providing us the information regarding the quality of the results/outputs. Another important fact is that inconsistency and/or near-consistency in nature, i.e., in problems created from nature is completely nonexistent while in our modelling of the natural problems we may introduce inconsistency or near-inconsistency due to human error or due to inherent non-removable error associated with any measuring device or due to assumptions introduced to make the problem solvable or more easily solvable in practice. Thus if we discover any inconsistency or possibly any near-inconsistency in a mathematical model, it is certainly due to any or all of the three foregoing factors. We do, however, go ahead to solve such inconsistent/near-consistent problems and do get results that could be useful in real-world situations. The talk considers several deterministic, probabilistic, and heuristic algorithms in numerical optimisation, other numerical and statistical computations, and in PAC (probably approximately correct) learning models. It highlights the quality of the results/outputs through specifying relative error-bounds along with the associated confidence level, and the cost, viz., amount of computations and that of storage through complexity. It points out the limitation in error-free computations (wherever possible, i.e., where the number of arithmetic operations is finite and is known a priori) as well as in the usage of interval arithmetic. Further, the interdependence among the error, the confidence, and the cost is discussed.

Dynamic shear modulus as affected by displacement amplitude

The realistic estimation of the dynamic characteristics for a known set of loading conditions continues to be difficult despite many contributions in the past. The design of a machine foundation is generally made on the basis of limiting amplitude or resonant frequency. These parameters are in turn dependent on the dynamic characteristics of soil viz., the shear modulus/stiffness and damping. The work reported herein is an attempt to relate statistically the shear modulus of a soil to its resonant amplitude under a known set of static and dynamic loading conditions as well as wide ranging soil conditions. The two parameters have been statistically related with a good correlation coefficient and low standard error of estimate.

A Robust Three Phase State Estimation for Distribution Networks

Electric power utilities are installing distribution automation systems (DAS) for better management and control of the distribution networks during the recent past. The success of DAS, largely depends on the availability of reliable database of the control centre and thus requires an efficient state estimation (SE) solution technique. This paper presents an efficient and robust three-phase SE algorithm for application to radial distribution networks. This method exploits the radial nature of the network and uses forward and backward propagation scheme to estimate the line flows, node voltage and loads at each node, based on the measured quantities. The SE cannot be executed without adequate number of measurements. The extension of the method to the network observability analysis and bad data detection is also discussed. The proposed method has been tested to analyze several practical distribution networks of various voltage levels and also having high R:X ratio of lines. The results for a typical network are presented for illustration purposes. © 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Robust Approach for Identification of Bad Data in State Estimation Using SLP Technique

This paper proposes a new approach for solving the state estimation problem. The approach is aimed at producing a robust estimator that rejects bad data, even if they are associated with leverage-point measurements. This is achieved by solving a sequence of Linear Programming (LP) problems. Optimization is carried via a new algorithm which is a combination of “upper bound optimization technique" and “an improved algorithm for discrete linear approximation". In this formulation of the LP problem, in addition to the constraints corresponding to the measurement set, constraints corresponding to bounds of state variables are also involved, which enables the LP problem more efficient in rejecting bad data, even if they are associated with leverage-point measurements. Results of the proposed estimator on IEEE 39-bus system and a 24-bus EHV equivalent system of the southern Indian grid are presented for illustrative purpose.

Estimation of the shear transformation zone size fin a bulk metallic glass through statistical a analysis of the first pop-in stresses during spherical nanoindentation

The size of the shear transformation zone (STZ) that initiates the elastic to plastic transition in a Zr-based bulk metallic glass was estimated by conducting a statistical analysis of the first pop-in event during spherical nanoindentation. A series of experiments led us to a successful description of the distribution of shear strength for the transition and its dependence on the loading rate. From the activation volume determined by statistical analysis the STZ size was estimated based on a cooperative shearing model. (C) 2012 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Online Computation of Hysteresis Boundary for Constant Switching Frequency Current-Error Space-Vector-Based Hysteresis Controller for VSI-Fed IM Drives

This paper proposes a current-error space-vector-based hysteresis controller with online computation of boundary for two-level inverter-fed induction motor (IM) drives. The proposed hysteresis controller has got all advantages of conventional current-error space-vector-based hysteresis controllers like quick transient response, simplicity, adjacent voltage vector switching, etc. Major advantage of the proposed controller-based voltage-source-inverters-fed drive is that phase voltage frequency spectrum produced is exactly similar to that of a constant switching frequency space-vector pulsewidth modulated (SVPWM) inverter. In this proposed hysteresis controller, stator voltages along alpha- and beta-axes are estimated during zero and active voltage vector periods using current errors along alpha- and beta-axes and steady-state model of IM. Online computation of hysteresis boundary is carried out using estimated stator voltages in the proposed hysteresis controller. The proposed scheme is simple and capable of taking inverter upto six-step-mode operation, if demanded by drive system. The proposed hysteresis-controller-based inverter-fed drive scheme is experimentally verified. The steady state and transient performance of the proposed scheme is extensively tested. The experimental results are giving constant frequency spectrum for phase voltage similar to that of constant frequency SVPWM inverter-fed drive.

Estimation of vapour pressure and partial pressure of subliming compounds by low-pressure thermogravimetry

A method for the estimation of vapour pressure and partial pressure of subliming compounds under reduced pressure, using rising temperature thermogravimetry, is described in this paper. The method is based on our recently developed procedure to estimate the vapour pressure from ambient pressure thermogravimetric data using Langmuir equation. Using benzoic acid as the calibration standard, vapour pressure temperature curves are calculated at 80, 160 and 1000 mbar for salicylic acid and vanadyl bis-2,4-pentanedionate, a precursor used for chemical vapour deposition of vanadium oxides. Using a modification of the Langmuir equation, the partial pressure of these materials at different total pressures is also determined as a function of temperature. Such data can be useful for the deposition of multi-metal oxide thin films or doped thin films by chemical vapour deposition (CVD).

Ultrasound Assisted Optical Tomography: Estimation of phase Shift experienced by photon on transit through US insonified region for detection of breast tumor

A Monte Carlo model of ultrasound modulation of multiply scattered coherent light in a highly scattering media has been carried out for estimating the phase shift experienced by a photon beam on its transit through US insonified region. The phase shift is related to the tissue stiffness, thereby opening an avenue for possible breast tumor detection. When the scattering centers in the tissue medium is exposed to a deterministic forcing with the help of a focused ultrasound (US) beam, due to the fact that US-induced oscillation is almost along particular direction, the direction defined by the transducer axis, the scattering events increase, thereby increasing the phase shift experienced by light that traverses through the medium. The phase shift is found to increase with increase in anisotropy g of the medium. However, as the size of the focused region which is the region of interest (ROI) increases, a large number of scattering events take place within the ROI, the ensemble average of the phase shift (Delta phi) becomes very close to zero. The phase of the individual photon is randomly distributed over 2 pi when the scattered photon path crosses a large number of ultrasound wavelengths in the focused region. This is true at high ultrasound frequency (1 MHz) when mean free path length of photon l(s) is comparable to wavelength of US beam. However, at much lower US frequencies (100 Hz), the wavelength of sound is orders of magnitude larger than l(s), and with a high value of g (g 0.9), there is a distinct measurable phase difference for the photon that traverses through the insonified region. Experiments are carried out for validation of simulation results.

Theoretical estimation of electromigration in metallic carbon nanotubes considering self-heating effect

In this paper, we estimate the solution of the electromigration diffusion equation (EMDE) in isotopically pure and impure metallic single-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs) (SWCNTs) by considering self-heating. The EMDE for SWCNT has been solved not only by invoking the dependence of the electromigration flux on the usual applied static electric field across its two ends but also by considering a temperature-dependent thermal conductivity (κ) which results in a variable temperature distribution (T) along its length due to self-heating. By changing its length and isotopic impurity, we demonstrate that there occurs a significant deviation in the SWCNT electromigration performance. However, if κ is assumed to be temperature independent, the solution may lead to serious errors in performance estimation. We further exhibit a tradeoff between length and impurity effect on the performance toward electromigration. It is suggested that, to reduce the vacancy concentration in longer interconnects of few micrometers, one should opt for an isotopically impure SWCNT at the cost of lower κ, whereas for comparatively short interconnects, pure SWCNT should be used. This tradeoff presented here can be treated as a way for obtaining a fairly well estimation of the vacancy concentration and mean time to failure in the bundles of CNT-based interconnects. © 2012 IEEE.

Parameter estimation of a two-horizon soil profile by combining crop canopy and surface soil moisture observations using GLUE

Estimation of soil parameters by inverse modeling using observations on either surface soil moisture or crop variables has been successfully attempted in many studies, but difficulties to estimate root zone properties arise when heterogeneous layered soils are considered. The objective of this study was to explore the potential of combining observations on surface soil moisture and crop variables - leaf area index (LAI) and above-ground biomass for estimating soil parameters (water holding capacity and soil depth) in a two-layered soil system using inversion of the crop model STICS. This was performed using GLUE method on a synthetic data set on varying soil types and on a data set from a field experiment carried out in two maize plots in South India. The main results were (i) combination of surface soil moisture and above-ground biomass provided consistently good estimates with small uncertainity of soil properties for the two soil layers, for a wide range of soil paramater values, both in the synthetic and the field experiment, (ii) above-ground biomass was found to give relatively better estimates and lower uncertainty than LAI when combined with surface soil moisture, especially for estimation of soil depth, (iii) surface soil moisture data, either alone or combined with crop variables, provided a very good estimate of the water holding capacity of the upper soil layer with very small uncertainty whereas using the surface soil moisture alone gave very poor estimates of the soil properties of the deeper layer, and (iv) using crop variables alone (else above-ground biomass or LAI) provided reasonable estimates of the deeper layer properties depending on the soil type but provided poor estimates of the first layer properties. The robustness of combining observations of the surface soil moisture and the above-ground biomass for estimating two layer soil properties, which was demonstrated using both synthetic and field experiments in this study, needs now to be tested for a broader range of climatic conditions and crop types, to assess its potential for spatial applications. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear dynamic state estimation in instrumented structures with conditionally linear Gaussian substructures

Many problems of state estimation in structural dynamics permit a partitioning of system states into nonlinear and conditionally linear substructures. This enables a part of the problem to be solved exactly, using the Kalman filter, and the remainder using Monte Carlo simulations. The present study develops an algorithm that combines sequential importance sampling based particle filtering with Kalman filtering to a fairly general form of process equations and demonstrates the application of a substructuring scheme to problems of hidden state estimation in structures with local nonlinearities, response sensitivity model updating in nonlinear systems, and characterization of residual displacements in instrumented inelastic structures. The paper also theoretically demonstrates that the sampling variance associated with the substructuring scheme used does not exceed the sampling variance corresponding to the Monte Carlo filtering without substructuring. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Derating Based Hardware Optimizations in Soft Error Tolerant Designs

Ensuring reliable operation over an extended period of time is one of the biggest challenges facing present day electronic systems. The increased vulnerability of the components to atmospheric particle strikes poses a big threat in attaining the reliability required for various mission critical applications. Various soft error mitigation methodologies exist to address this reliability challenge. A general solution to this problem is to arrive at a soft error mitigation methodology with an acceptable implementation overhead and error tolerance level. This implementation overhead can then be reduced by taking advantage of various derating effects like logical derating, electrical derating and timing window derating, and/or making use of application redundancy, e. g. redundancy in firmware/software executing on the so designed robust hardware. In this paper, we analyze the impact of various derating factors and show how they can be profitably employed to reduce the hardware overhead to implement a given level of soft error robustness. This analysis is performed on a set of benchmark circuits using the delayed capture methodology. Experimental results show upto 23% reduction in the hardware overhead when considering individual and combined derating factors.

Stochastic Simulations Suggest that HIV-1 Survives Close to Its Error Threshold

The use of mutagenic drugs to drive HIV-1 past its error threshold presents a novel intervention strategy, as suggested by the quasispecies theory, that may be less susceptible to failure via viral mutation-induced emergence of drug resistance than current strategies. The error threshold of HIV-1, mu(c), however, is not known. Application of the quasispecies theory to determine mu(c) poses significant challenges: Whereas the quasispecies theory considers the asexual reproduction of an infinitely large population of haploid individuals, HIV-1 is diploid, undergoes recombination, and is estimated to have a small effective population size in vivo. We performed population genetics-based stochastic simulations of the within-host evolution of HIV-1 and estimated the structure of the HIV-1 quasispecies and mu(c). We found that with small mutation rates, the quasispecies was dominated by genomes with few mutations. Upon increasing the mutation rate, a sharp error catastrophe occurred where the quasispecies became delocalized in sequence space. Using parameter values that quantitatively captured data of viral diversification in HIV-1 patients, we estimated mu(c) to be 7 x 10(-5) -1 x 10(-4) substitutions/site/replication, similar to 2-6 fold higher than the natural mutation rate of HIV-1, suggesting that HIV-1 survives close to its error threshold and may be readily susceptible to mutagenic drugs. The latter estimate was weakly dependent on the within-host effective population size of HIV-1. With large population sizes and in the absence of recombination, our simulations converged to the quasispecies theory, bridging the gap between quasispecies theory and population genetics-based approaches to describing HIV-1 evolution. Further, mu(c) increased with the recombination rate, rendering HIV-1 less susceptible to error catastrophe, thus elucidating an added benefit of recombination to HIV-1. Our estimate of mu(c) may serve as a quantitative guideline for the use of mutagenic drugs against HIV-1.

Quantitative estimation of mechanical and optical properties from ultrasound assisted optical tomography data

We demonstrate quantitative optical property and elastic property imaging from ultrasound assisted optical tomography data. The measurements, which are modulation depth M and phase phi of the speckle pattern, are shown to be sensitively dependent on these properties of the object in the insonified focal region of the ultrasound (US) transducer. We demonstrate that Young's modulus (E) can be recovered from the resonance observed in M versus omega (the US frequency) plots and optical absorption (mu(a)) and scattering (mu(s)) coefficients from the measured differential phase changes. All experimental observations are verified also using Monte Carlo simulations. (c) 2012 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). DOI: 10.1117/1.JBO.17.10.101507]