Ocean structure and climate (Eastern North Atlantic): in situ measurement and remote sensing

Structure and climate of the east North Atlantic are appraised within a framework of in situ measurement and altimeter remote sensing from 0 degree - 60 degree N. Long zonal expendable bathythermograph /conductivity-temperature-depth probe sections show repeating internal structure in the North Atlantic Ocean. Drogued buoys and subsurface floats give westward speeds for eddies and wavelike structure. Records from longterm current meter deployments give the periodicity of the repeating structure. Eddy and wave characteristics of period, size or wavelength, westward propagation speed, and mean currents are derived at 20 degree N, 26 degree N, 32.5 degree N, 36 degree N and 48 degree N from in situ measurements in the Atlantic Ocean. It is shown that ocean wave and eddy-like features measured in situ correlate with altimeter structure. Interior ocean wave crests or cold dome-like temperature structures are cyclonic and have negative surface altimeter anomalies; mesoscale internal wave troughs or warm structures are anticyclonic and have positive surface height anomalies. Along the Eastern Boundary, flows and temperature climate are examined in terms of sla and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Longterm changes in ocean climate and circulation are derived from sla data. It is shown that longterm changes from 1992 to 2002 in the North Atlantic Current and the Subtropical Gyre transport determined from sla data correlate with winter NAO Index such that maximum flow conditions occurred in 1995 and 2000. Minimum circulation conditions occurred between 1996-1998. Years of extreme negative winter NAO Index result in enhanced poleward flow along the Eastern Boundary and anomalous winter warming along the West European Continental Slope as was measured in 1990, 1996, 1998 and 2001.

Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific

The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how "similar" zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (vertical bar r vertical bar = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single "warm-and-low-productivity" vs. "cool-and-high-productivity" component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative ("cool" and "productive") or near zero except positive in the El Nino years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and increasingly positive ("warm" and "low productivity") from 1992 to 1998; negative from 1999 to 2002; and again increasingly positive from 2003-present. We suggest that, in strongly seasonal environments, anomalously high temperature may provide misleading environmental cues that contribute to timing mismatch between life history events and the more-nearly-fixed seasonality of insolation, stratification, and food supply. Crown Copyright (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Composite front maps for improved visibility of dynamic sea-surface features on cloudy SeaWiFS and AVHRR data

Novel techniques have been developed for increasing the value of cloud-affected sequences of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sea-surface temperature (SST) data and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) ocean colour data for visualising dynamic physical and biological oceanic processes such as fronts, eddies and blooms. The proposed composite front map approach is to combine the location, strength and persistence of all fronts observed over several days into a single map, which allows intuitive interpretation of mesoscale structures. This method achieves a synoptic view without blurring dynamic features, an inherent problem with conventional time-averaging compositing methods. Objective validation confirms a significant improvement in feature visibility on composite maps compared to individual front maps. A further novel aspect is the automated detection of ocean colour fronts, correctly locating 96% of chlorophyll fronts in a test data set. A sizeable data set of 13,000 AVHRR and 1200 SeaWiFS scenes automatically processed using this technique is applied to the study of dynamic processes off the Iberian Peninsula such as mesoscale eddy generation, and many additional applications are identified. Front map animations provide a unique insight into the evolution of upwelling and eddies.

Exploiting satellite earth observation to quantify current global oceanic DMS flux and its future climate sensitivity

We used coincident Envisat RA2 and AATSR temperature and wind speed data from 2008/2009 to calculate the global net sea-air flux of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which we estimate to be 19.6 Tg S a21. Our monthly flux calculations are compared to open ocean eddy correlation measurements of DMS flux from 10 recent cruises, with a root mean square difference of 3.1 lmol m22 day21. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied temperature, salinity, surface wind speed, and aqueous DMS concentration, using fixed global changes as well as CMIP5 model output. The range of DMS flux in future climate scenarios is discussed. The CMIP5 model predicts a reduction in surface wind speed and we estimate that this will decrease the global annual sea-air flux of DMS by 22% over 25 years. Concurrent changes in temperature, salinity, and DMS concentration increase the global flux by much smaller amounts. The net effect of all CMIP5 modelled 25 year predictions was a 19% reduction in global DMS flux. 25 year DMS concentration changes had significant regional effects, some positive (Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific) and some negative (isolated regions along the Equator and in the Indian Ocean). Using satellite-detected coverage of coccolithophore blooms, our estimate of their contribution to North Atlantic DMS emissions suggests that the coccolithophores contribute only a small percentage of the North Atlantic annual flux estimate, but may be more important in the summertime and in the northeast Atlantic.

Southern Annular Mode and westerly-wind-driven changes in Indian-Atlantic exchange mechanisms

The dynamical link between the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains poorly understood. This partly arises from the complex Agulhas leakage, which occurs via rings, cyclones, and non-eddy flux. Hindcast simulations suggest that leakage has recently increased but have not decomposed this signal into its constituent mechanisms. Here these are isolated in a realistic ocean model. Increases in simulated leakage are attributed to stronger eddy and non-eddy-driven transports, and a strong warming and salinification, especially within Agulhas rings. Variability in both regimes is associated with strengthening Indian Ocean westerly winds, reflecting an increasingly positive Southern Annular Mode. While eddy and non-eddy flux signals are tied through turbulent eddy dissipation, the ratio between the two varies decadally. Consequently, while altimetry suggests a recent increase in retroflection turbulence and implied leakage, non-eddy flux may also play a significant role in modulating the leakage AMOC connection.

Drifter observations in the summer time Bay of Biscay slope current

During the summer of 2012, 20 surface drifters drogued at 50 m depth were deployed on the continental slope to the north of the Bay of Biscay. Initially after release the drifters all crossed the slope, with 14 continuing equatorward, parallel to the slope following an absolute dynamic topography feature and 6 returning to the slope, in an eddy, visible in chlorophyll-a maps. Lagrangian statistics show an anisotropic flow field that becomes less tied to the absolute dynamic topography and increasingly dominated by diffusion and eddy processes. A weaker tie to the absolute dynamic topography allowed for total of 8 of the drifters crossed from the deep water onto the shelf, showing pathways for flow across the slope. A combination of drifter trajectories, absolute dynamic topography and chlorophyll-a concentration maps have been used to show that small anticyclonic eddies, tied to the complex slope topography provide a mechanism for on shelf transport. During the summer, the presence of these eddies can be seen in surface chlorophyll-a maps.

Drifter observations in the summer time Bay of Biscay slope current

During the summer of 2012, 20 surface drifters drogued at 50 m depth were deployed on the continental slope to the north of the Bay of Biscay. Initially after release the drifters all crossed the slope, with 14 continuing equatorward, parallel to the slope following an absolute dynamic topography feature and 6 returning to the slope, in an eddy, visible in chlorophyll-a maps. Lagrangian statistics show an anisotropic flow field that becomes less tied to the absolute dynamic topography and increasingly dominated by diffusion and eddy processes. A weaker tie to the absolute dynamic topography allowed for total of 8 of the drifters crossed from the deep water onto the shelf, showing pathways for flow across the slope. A combination of drifter trajectories, absolute dynamic topography and chlorophyll-a concentration maps have been used to show that small anticyclonic eddies, tied to the complex slope topography provide a mechanism for on shelf transport. During the summer, the presence of these eddies can be seen in surface chlorophyll-a maps.

Analysis of Extended Partial Least Squares for Monitoring Large-Scale Processes

This paper theoretically analysis the recently proposed "Extended Partial Least Squares" (EPLS) algorithm. After pointing out some conceptual deficiencies, a revised algorithm is introduced that covers the middle ground between Partial Least Squares and Principal Component Analysis. It maximises a covariance criterion between a cause and an effect variable set (partial least squares) and allows a complete reconstruction of the recorded data (principal component analysis). The new and conceptually simpler EPLS algorithm has successfully been applied in detecting and diagnosing various fault conditions, where the original EPLS algorithm did only offer fault detection.

Less of a Puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.

University students with disabilities in Universities. A study of their inclusion

Access to higher education has increased among students with disabilities, and universities are adopting different alternatives which must be assessed. The purpose of this study was to identify the situation of a sample of students with disabilities (n=91) who attend a university in Spain, through the design and validation of the “CUNIDIS-d” scale, with satisfactory psychometric properties. The results show the importance of making reasoned curriculum adaptations, adapting teacher training, improving accessibility and involving all the university community. Different proposals were provided which support the social dimension of the EHEA.

Improved reliability in diagnosing faults using multivariate statistics

This paper analyses multivariate statistical techniques for identifying and isolating abnormal process behaviour. These techniques include contribution charts and variable reconstructions that relate to the application of principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis reveals firstly that contribution charts produce variable contributions which are linearly dependent and may lead to an incorrect diagnosis, if the number of principal components retained is close to the number of recorded process variables. The analysis secondly yields that variable reconstruction affects the geometry of the PCA decomposition. The paper further introduces an improved variable reconstruction method for identifying multiple sensor and process faults and for isolating their influence upon the recorded process variables. It is shown that this can accommodate the effect of reconstruction, i.e. changes in the covariance matrix of the sensor readings and correctly re-defining the PCA-based monitoring statistics and their confidence limits. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The PRIME 1996 cruise: an overview

The UK PRIME cruise, June-July 1996 in the NE Atlantic, consisted of two legs. During the first, detailed chemical and biological observations were made in time-series mode adjacent to the centre of a cold-core eddy in the vicinity of 59 degreesN 20 degreesW using SF6 tracer techniques as the basis for the Lagrangian study. The eddy, which appeared to have been formed the previous winter, remained coherent over the 9 days of the survey and advected only slowly. The phytoplankton community in the eddy was dominated by the coccolithophorid Coccolithus huxleyi. High microzooplankton grazing rates indicated minimal export losses from the surface layer. Significant shifts in many, but not all, of the chemical and biological properties measured were observed over the course of the experiment, especially after the passage of a storm event, which resulted in considerable deepening of the mixed layer followed by a return to fully stratified conditions. The second leg consisted of a transect from 59 degreesN 20 degreesW to 37 degreesN 19 degreesW, with a further Lagrangian time-series study based on a drogue marker initiated at the southern end of the transect. Maximal biological activity was generally encountered in the region between two fronts located at 52.5 degreesN and 48 degreesN, while to the south of 48 degreesN oligotrophic conditions prevailed. At the southern Lagrangian site, a deep chlorophyll maximum was present and high column new production was recorded as a result of the euphotic zone extending below the depth of the nutricline. Microzooplankton grazing rates were lower at this location than at the northern eddy site. The influx of a warm, saline water body into the upper layers during the southern survey led to a major shift in many of the biological and chemical properties being measured. At both the northern and southern Lagrangian sites, the biomass of the mesozooplankton exceeded that of the microzooplankton. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparisons of plankton at 59 degrees N and 37 degrees N during two Lagrangian drift experiments in the North Atlantic in June and July 1996

Data are summarised for two Lagrangian experiments in the North Atlantic in early summer 1996. At 59 degreesN 20 degreesW, plankton dynamics was studied in an SF, tracer release experiment within a mesoscale eddy over a 9-day period. At 37 degreesN 20 degreesW, a second experiment followed a drifting buoy for 7 days. The data obtained in these two experiments have been averaged for 3 depth strata; the euphotic zone, the surface mixed layer (SML), and the seasonal thermocline immediately beneath the surface mixed layer. At 59 degreesN, the euphotic zone was only marginally deeper than the SML, but at 37 degreesN the SML was ca 30 m and the euphotic depth was ca 110 m. At 37 degreesN, nutrient concentrations in the SML were low but significant new production occurred in the thermocline because of light penetration into the nutricline. The particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration of the SML at 59 degreesN was 13-15 mu mol C kg(-1), but at 37 degreesN POC concentrations were 4 mu mol C kg(-1). These POC measurements include biota and detritus. As a way of investigating latitudinal differences in the plankton communities, estimates have been made of the carbon and nitrogen content of phytoplankton, bacterioplankton, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton. At both 59 degreesN and 37 degreesN, phytoplankton was the largest component, accounting for ca 50% of the planktonic biomass in the SML. At 59 degreesN, microzooplankton was 16% of the planktonic carbon, but at 37 degreesN this reduced to 8% of the total. Mesozooplankton was a relatively constant proportion (ca 20%) of the planktonic carbon in the SML at both 59 degreesN and 37 degreesN. Bacterioplankton was 14% of the biomass at 59 degreesN, increasing to 24% in the microbial loop-dominated system at 37 degreesN. Mean carbon fixation rate in the oligotrophic southern station was 24% of that at the north, with more carbon fixation below the SML at 37 degreesN than at 59 degreesN. Respiration rates showed little variation with latitude, and the rates at 37 degreesN were 80% of those at 59 degreesN. Nitrate and ammonium uptake rates were very low in the oligotrophic conditions in the SML at 37 degreesN, but nitrate uptake in the euphotic zone was comparable to that at 59 degreesN. Ammonium uptake by phytoplankton was also significantly greater at 37 degreesN, in both the euphotic zone and thermocline, but uptake in the SML was only 20% of that in the SML at 59 degreesN. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-stationary variogram models for geostatistical sampling optimisation: An empirical investigation using elevation data

A problem with use of the geostatistical Kriging error for optimal sampling design is that the design does not adapt locally to the character of spatial variation. This is because a stationary variogram or covariance function is a parameter of the geostatistical model. The objective of this paper was to investigate the utility of non-stationary geostatistics for optimal sampling design. First, a contour data set of Wiltshire was split into 25 equal sub-regions and a local variogram was predicted for each. These variograms were fitted with models and the coefficients used in Kriging to select optimal sample spacings for each sub-region. Large differences existed between the designs for the whole region (based on the global variogram) and for the sub-regions (based on the local variograms). Second, a segmentation approach was used to divide a digital terrain model into separate segments. Segment-based variograms were predicted and fitted with models. Optimal sample spacings were then determined for the whole region and for the sub-regions. It was demonstrated that the global design was inadequate, grossly over-sampling some segments while under-sampling others.