A quasi-likelihood approach for ordered categorical data with overdispersion

Quasi-likelihood (QL) methods are often used to account for overdispersion in categorical data. This paper proposes a new way of constructing a QL function that stems from the conditional mean-variance relationship. Unlike traditional QL approaches to categorical data, this QL function is, in general, not a scaled version of the ordinary log-likelihood function. A simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the proposed QL method. Fish mortality data from quantal response experiments are used for illustration.

Intermediate Past BE : A Paradigm Reshaped With Data Drawn From HARES

In this paper, I look into a grammatical phenomenon found among speakers of the Cambridgeshire dialect of English. According to my hypothesis, the phenomenon is a new entry into the past BE verb paradigm in the English language. In my paper, I claim that the structure I have found complements the existing two verb forms, was and were, with a third verb form that I have labelled ‘intermediate past BE’. The paper is divided into two parts. In the first section, I introduce the theoretical ground for the study of variation, which is founded on empiricist principles. In variationist linguistics, the main claim is that heterogeneous language use is structured and ordered. In the last 50 years of history in modern linguistics, this claim is controversial. In the 1960s, the generativist movement spearheaded by Noam Chomsky diverted attention away from grammatical theories that are based on empirical observations. The generativists steered away from language diversity, variation and change in favour of generalisations, abstractions and universalist claims. The theoretical part of my paper goes through the main points of the variationist agenda and concludes that abandoning the concept of language variation in linguistics is harmful for both theory and methodology. In the method part of the paper, I present the Helsinki Archive of Regional English Speech (HARES) corpus. It is an audio archive that contains interviews conducted in England in the 1970s and 1980s. The interviews were done in accordance to methods used generally in traditional dialectology. The informants are mostly elderly male people who have lived in the same region throughout their lives and who have left school at an early age. The interviews are actually conversations: the interviewer allowed the informant to pick the topic of conversation to induce a maximally relaxed and comfortable atmosphere and thus allow the most natural dialect variant to emerge in the informant’s speech. In the paper, the corpus chapter introduces some of the transcription and annotation problems associated with spoken language corpora (especially those containing dialectal speech). Questions surrounding the concept of variation are present in this part of the paper too, as especially transcription work is troubled by the fundamental problem of having to describe the fluctuations of everyday speech in text. In the empirical section of the paper, I use HARES to analyse the speech of four informants, with special focus on the emergence of the intermediate past BE variant. My observations and the subsequent analysis permit me to claim that my hypothesis seems to hold. The intermediate variant occupies almost all contexts where one would expect was or were in the informants’ speech. This means that the new variant is integrated into the speakers’ grammars and exemplifies the kind of variation that is at the heart of this paper.

Data definition and manipulation languages for a CAD database

In this paper the main features of ARDBID (A Relational Database for Interactive Design) have been described. An overview of the organization of the database has been presented and a detailed description of the data definition and manipulation languages has been given. These have been implemented on a DEC 1090 system.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Phylogeography of the pharaoh cuttle Sepia pharaonis based on partial mitochondrial 16S sequence data

The pharaoh cuttle Sepia pharaonis Ehrenberg, 1831 (Mollusca: Cephalopoda: Sepiida) is a broadly distributed species of substantial fisheries importance found from east Africa to southern Japan. Little is known about S. pharaonis phylogeography, but evidence from morphology and reproductive biology suggests that Sepia pharaonis is actually a complex of at least three species. To evaluate this possibility, we collected tissue samples from Sepia pharaonis from throughout its range. Phylogenetic analyses of partial mitochondrial 16S sequences from these samples reveal five distinct clades: a Gulf of Aden/Red Sea clade, a northern Australia clade, a Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea clade, a western Pacific clade (Gulf of Thailand and Taiwan) and an India/Andaman Sea clade. Phylogenetic analyses including several Sepia species show that S. pharaonis sensu lato may not be monophyletic. We suggest that "S. pharaonis" may consist of up to five species, but additional data will be required to fully clarify relationships within the S. pharaonis complex.

Evaluation of aerial photography for predicting trends in structural attributes of Australian woodland including comparison with ground-based monitoring data

The accurate assessment of trends in the woody structure of savannas has important implications for greenhouse accounting and land-use industries such as pastoralism. Two recent assessments of live woody biomass change from north-east Australian eucalypt woodland between the 1980s and 1990s present divergent results. The first estimate is derived from a network of permanent monitoring plots and the second from woody cover assessments from aerial photography. The differences between the studies are reviewed and include sample density, spatial scale and design. Further analyses targeting potential biases in the indirect aerial photography technique are conducted including a comparison of basal area estimates derived from 28 permanent monitoring sites with basal area estimates derived by the aerial photography technique. It is concluded that the effect of photo-scale; or the failure to include appropriate back-transformation of biomass estimates in the aerial photography study are not likely to have contributed significantly to the discrepancy. However, temporal changes in the structure of woodlands, for example, woodlands maturing from many smaller trees to fewer larger trees or seasonal changes, which affect the relationship between cover and basal area could impact on the detection of trends using the aerial photography technique. It is also possible that issues concerning photo-quality may bias assessments through time, and that the limited sample of the permanent monitoring network may inadequately represent change at regional scales

Governance and regional variation of homicide rates: Evidence from cross-national data

Criminological theories of cross-national studies of homicide have underestimated the effects of quality governance of liberal democracy and region. Data sets from several sources are combined and a comprehensive model of homicide is proposed. Results of the spatial regression model, which controls for the effect of spatial autocorrelation, show that quality governance, human development, economic inequality, and ethnic heterogeneity are statistically significant in predicting homicide. In addition, regions of Latin America and non-Muslim Sub-Saharan Africa have significantly higher rates of homicides ceteris paribus while the effects of East Asian countries and Islamic societies are not statistically significant. These findings are consistent with the expectation of the new modernization and regional theories.

Graphical method to include temperature variation of activation energy in Hall data analysis

A graphical method is presented for Hall data analysis, including the temperature variation of activation energy due to screening. This method removes the discrepancies noted in the analysis of recently reported Hall data on Si(In).

Investigation of movement and factors influencing post-release survival of line-caught coral reef fish using recreational tag-recapture data

Six species of line-caught coral reef fish (Plectropomus spp., Lethrinus miniatus, Lethrinus laticaudis, Lutjanus sebae, Lutjanus malabaricus and Lutjanus erythropterus) were tagged by members of the Australian National Sportsfishing Association (ANSA) in Queensland between 1986 and 2003. Of the 14,757 fish tagged, 1607 were recaptured and we analysed these data to describe movement and determine factors likely to impact release survival. All species were classified as residents since over 80% of recaptures for each species occurred within 1 km of the release site. Few individuals (range 0.8-5%) were recaptured more than 20 km from their release point. L. sebae had a higher recapture rate (19.9%) than the other species studied (range 2.1-11.7%). Venting swimbladder gases, regardless of whether or not fish appeared to be suffering from barotrauma, significantly enhanced (P < 0.05) the survival of L. sebae and L. malabaricus but had no significant effect (P > 0.05) on L. erythropterus. The condition of fish on release, subjectively assessed by anglers, was only a significant effect on recapture rate for L. sebae where fish in "fair" condition had less than half the recapture rate of those assessed as in "excellent" or "good" condition. The recapture rate of L. sebae and L. laticaudis was significantly (P < 0.05) affected by depth with recapture rate declining in depths exceeding 30 m. Overall, the results showed that depth of capture, release condition and treatment for barotrauma influenced recapture rate for some species but these effects were not consistent across all species studied. Recommendations were made to the ANSA tagging clubs to record additional information such as injury, hooking location and hook type to enable a more comprehensive future assessment of the factors influencing release survival.

Phylogenetic relationships of graminicolous downy mildews based on cox2 sequence data

Graminicolous downy mildews (GDM) are an understudied, yet economically important, group of plant pathogens, which are one of the major constraints to poaceous crops in the tropics and subtropics. Here we present a first molecular phylogeny based on cox2 sequences comprising all genera of the GDM currently accepted, with both lasting (Graminivora, Poakatesthia, and Viennotia) and evanescent (Peronosclerospora, Sclerophthora, and Sclerospora) sporangiophores. In addition, all other downy mildew genera currently accepted, as well as a representative sample of other oomycete taxa, have been included. It was shown that all genera of the GDM have had a long, independent evolutionary history, and that the delineation between Peronosclerospora and Sclerospora is correct. Sclerophthora was found to be a particularly divergent taxon nested within a paraphyletic Phytophthora, but without support. The results confirm that the placement of Peronosclerospora and Sclerospora in the Saprolegniomycetidae is incorrect. Sclerophthora is not closely related to Pachymetra of the family Verrucalvaceae, and also does not belong to the Saprolegniomycetidae, but shows close affinities to the Peronosporaceae. In addition, all GDM are interspersed throughout the Peronosporaceae s lat., suggesting that a separate family for the Sclerosporaceae might not be justified.

Integrating voice and data on SALAN: an experimental local area network

This paper is concerned with the integration of voice and data on an experimental local area network used by the School of Automation, of the Indian Institute of Science. SALAN (School of Automation Local Area Network) consists of a number of microprocessor-based communication nodes linked to a shared coaxial cable transmission medium. The communication nodes handle the various low-level functions associated with computer communication, and interface user data equipment to the network. SALAN at present provides a file transfer facility between an Intel Series III microcomputer development system and a Texas Instruments Model 990/4 microcomputer system. Further, a packet voice communication system has also been implemented on SALAN. The various aspects of the design and implementation of the above two utilities are discussed.

Concordant molecular and phenotypic data delineate new taxonomy and conservation priorities for the endangered mountain yellow-legged frog

The mountain yellow-legged frog Rana muscosa sensu lato, once abundant in the Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada, and the disjunct Transverse Ranges of southern California, has declined precipitously throughout its range, even though most of its habitat is protected. The species is now extinct in Nevada and reduced to tiny remnants in southern California, where as a distinct population segment, it is classified as Endangered. Introduced predators (trout), air pollution and an infectious disease (chytridiomycosis) threaten remaining populations. A Bayesian analysis of 1901 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA confirms the presence of two deeply divergent clades that come into near contact in the Sierra Nevada. Morphological studies of museum specimens and analysis of acoustic data show that the two major mtDNA clades are readily differentiated phenotypically. Accordingly, we recognize two species, Rana sierrae, in the northern and central Sierra Nevada, and R. muscosa, in the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. Existing data indicate no range overlap. These results have important implications for the conservation of these two species as they illuminate a profound mismatch between the current delineation of the distinct population segments (southern California vs. Sierra Nevada) and actual species boundaries. For example, our study finds that remnant populations of R. muscosa exist in both the southern Sierra Nevada and the mountains of southern California, which may broaden options for management. In addition, despite the fact that only the southern California populations are listed as Endangered, surveys conducted since 1995 at 225 historic (1899-1994) localities from museum collections show that 93.3% (n=146) of R. sierrae populations and 95.2% (n=79) of R. muscosa populations are extinct. Evidence presented here underscores the need for revision of protected population status to include both species throughout their ranges.

A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

Site classification and estimation of surface level seismic hazard using geophysical data and probabilistic approach

This paper presents the site classification of Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area using geophysical data and the evaluation of spectral acceleration at ground level using probabilistic approach. Site classification has been carried out using experimental data from the shallow geophysical method of Multichannel Analysis of Surface wave (MASW). One-dimensional (1-D) MASW survey has been carried out at 58 locations and respective velocity profiles are obtained. The average shear wave velocity for 30 m depth (Vs(30)) has been calculated and is used for the site classification of the BMP area as per NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program). Based on the Vs(30) values major part of the BMP area can be classified as ``site class D'', and ``site class C'. A smaller portion of the study area, in and around Lalbagh Park, is classified as ``site class B''. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to map the seismic hazard in terms spectral acceleration (S-a) at rock and the ground level considering the site classes and six seismogenic sources identified. The mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for S. have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of spectral acceleration for short period and long period are mapped for rock, site class C and D with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km. In addition to this, the Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at surface level has been developed for the 5% damping and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock, site class C and D These spectral acceleration and uniform hazard spectrums can be used to assess the design force for important structures and also to develop the design spectrum.