Ten Years of the Relative Risk Model and Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.

Recovery and fate of three species of marine dinoflagellates after yellow clay flocculation

The recovery and fate of three species of dinoflagellates, Alexandrium tamarense, Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Scrippsiella trochoidea, after having been sedimented by yellow clay, were investigated in the laboratory. The effect of burying period in yellow clay pellet and mixing on the recovery of settled algal cells were studied. The morphological changes of algal cells in yellow clay pellet were also tracked. Results showed that there was almost no recovery for A. tamarense and C. polykrikoides, and the cells decomposed after 2-3 days after visible changes in morphology and chloroplasts. There was some recovery for S. trochoidea. Moreover, S. trochoidea cysts were formed in clay pellet during the period of about 14 days, with the highest abundance of 87 000 cysts g(-1) clay and the incidence of cyst formation of 6.5%, which was considered as a potential threat for the further occurrence of algal blooms. S. trochoidea cysts were isolated from yellow clay and incubated to test their viability, and a germination ratio of more than 30% was obtained after incubation for 1 month. These results showed the species specificity of the mitigation effect of yellow clay. It is suggested that cautions be taken for some harmful species and thorough risk assessments be conducted before using this mitigation strategy in the field.

社会形势预警的几种建模方法比较

Based on social survey data conducted by local research group in some counties executed in the nearly past five years in China, the author proposed and solved two kernel problems in the field of social situation forecasting: i) How can the attitudes’ data on individual level be integrated with social situation data on macrolevel; ii) How can the powers of forecasting models’ constructed by different statistic methods be compared? Five integrative statistics were applied to the research: 1) algorithm average (MEAN); 2) standard deviation (SD); 3) coefficient variability (CV); 4) mixed secondary moment (M2); 5) Tendency (TD). To solve the former problem, the five statistics were taken to synthesize the individual and mocrolevel data of social situations on the levels of counties’ regions, and form novel integrative datasets, from the basis of which, the latter problem was accomplished by the author: modeling methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), Discriminant Analysis (DA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to construct several forecasting models. Meanwhile, on the dimensions of stepwise vs. enter, short-term vs. long-term forecasting and different integrative (statistic) models, meta-analysis and power analysis were taken to compare the predicting power of each model within and among modeling methods. Finally, it can be concluded from the research of the dissertation: 1) Exactly significant difference exists among different integrative (statistic) models, in which, tendency (TD) integrative models have the highest power, but coefficient variability (CV) ones have the lowest; 2) There is no significant difference of the power between stepwise and enter models as well as short-term and long-term forecasting models; 3) There is significant difference among models constructed by different methods, of which, support vector machine (SVM) has the highest statistic power. This research founded basis in all facets for exploring the optimal forecasting models of social situation’s more deeply, further more, it is the first time methods of meta-analysis and power analysis were immersed into the assessments of such forecasting models.

Aphasia rehabilitation and the strange neglect of speed.

Timing data is infrequently reported in aphasiological literature and time taken is only a minor factor, where it is considered at all, in existing aphasia assessments. This is not surprising because reaction times are difficult to obtain manually, but it is a pity, because speed data should be indispensable in assessing the severity of language processing disorders and in evaluating the effects of treatment. This paper argues that reporting accuracy data without discussing speed of performance gives an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of any cognitive function. Moreover, in deciding how to treat, when to continue treatment and when to cease therapy, clinicians should have regard to both parameters: Speed and accuracy of performance. Crerar, Ellis and Dean (1996) reported a study in which the written sentence comprehension of 14 long-term agrammatic subjects was assessed and treated using a computer-based microworld. Some statistically significant and durable treatment effects were obtained after a short amount of focused therapy. Only accuracy data were reported in that (already long) paper, and interestingly, although it has been a widely read study, neither referees nor subsequent readers seemed to miss "the other side of the coin": How these participants compared with controls for their speed of processing and what effect treatment had on speed. This paper considers both aspects of the data and presents a tentative way of combining treatment effects on both accuracy and speed of performance in a single indicator. Looking at rehabilitation this way gives us a rather different perspective on which individuals benefited most from the intervention. It also demonstrates that while some subjects are capable of utilising metalinguistic skills to achieve normal accuracy scores even many years post-stroke, there is little prospect of reducing the time taken to within the normal range. Without considering speed of processing, the extent of this residual functional impairment can be overlooked.

The Development of a Holistic and Quantitative Tool for the Assessment and Improvement of Survey Quality.

There are a variety of guidelines and methods available to measure and assess survey quality. Most of these are based on qualitative descriptions. In practice, they are not easy to implement and it is very difficult to make comparisons between surveys. Hence there is a theoretical and pragmatic demand to develop a mainly quantitative based survey assessment tool. This research aimed to meet this need and make contributions to the evaluation and improvement of survey quality. Acknowledging the critical importance of measurement issues in survey research, this thesis starts with a comprehensive introduction to measurement theory and identifies the types of measurement errors associated with measurement procedures through three experiments. Then it moves on to describe concepts, guidelines and methods available for measuring and assessing survey quality. Combining these with measurement principles leads to the development of a quantitative based statistical holistic tool to measure and assess survey quality. The criteria, weights and subweights for the assessment tool are determined using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) and a survey questionnaire based on the Delphi method. Finally the model is applied to a database of surveys which was constructed to develop methods of classification, assessment and improvement of survey quality. The model developed in this thesis enables survey researchers and/or commissioners to make a holistic assessment of the value of the particular survey(s). This model is an Excel based audit which takes a holistic approach, following all stages of the survey from inception, to design, construction, execution, analysis and dissemination. At each stage a set of criteria are applied to assess quality. Scores attained against these assessments are weighted by the importance of the criteria and summed to give an overall assessment of the stage. The total score for a survey can be obtained by a combination of the scores for every stage weighted again by the importance of each stage. The advantage of this is to construct a means of survey assessment which can be used in a diagnostic manner to assess and improve survey quality.

Marking and providing feedback face-to-face: staff and student perspectives.

The setting, marking and providing feedback on assessments forms an important part of a tutor’s role. Studies into the use of feedback and how it is interpreted by students indicate a mismatch between what students are looking for and what tutors think they are giving. Tutors comment that students are more interested in the mark than the feedback, and yet students indicate that they do not get enough feedback, or that it is not useful. This study investigates student and staff perceptions of the linking of marking and feedback in face-to-face sessions. A cohort of year one university students were given the option of receiving either written feedback or a 15 minute meeting with one of their tutors to have their essay marked with them. Forty nine students chose face-to-face marking, the remaining 35 students received written feedback. Focus groups were used to investigate the student experience. Staff members were also asked to reflect on the process. Students and staff found the experience of face-to-face marking beneficial and positive. Both felt that the time spent together allowed for a feedback dialogue about the piece of work, and that staff could explain and justify why marks were given.

Comprehensive assessment of alcohol-related brain damage (ARBD): gap or chasm in the evidence?

Alcohol-related brain damage (ARBD) is primarily caused by chronic alcohol misuse and thiamine deficiency, and results in a broad range of impairments. Despite the increasing incidence of ARBD in the UK in recent decades, it is currently underdiagnosed, managed inappropriately and treated inadequately. Moreover, information about assessments for individuals with ARBD is currently absent from clinical guidelines and policy documents. The aim of this paper was to review the evidence relating to the neurological, neuropsychological, psychosocial, physical and nutritional assessment of individuals with ARBD to identify appropriate assessment tools that could be used to measure and monitor the impact of ARBD over time. A systematic online database search revealed a total of 160 separate references, 133 of which were rejected and two of which could not be accessed. Twenty-five papers were included in the review, including six neuroimaging studies, 17 neuropsychological studies and two studies using psychosocial methods of assessment. A lack of evidence for nutritional and physical assessment of individuals with ARBD was found. The review findings are inconclusive; most instruments currently used in ARBD research have not specifically been validated for use within an ARBD context. Further research is required to identify comprehensive methods of ARBD assessment.

Qualitative modelling of unknown interface behaviour

M. H. Lee, and S. M. Garrett, Qualitative modelling of unknown interface behaviour, International Journal of Human Computer Studies, Vol. 53, No. 4, pp. 493-515, 2000

Getting Constitutional Theory into Proportion: A Matter of Interpretation?

Gibbs, N., Getting Constitutional Theory into Proportion: A Matter of Interpretation?, Oxford Journal of Legal Studies, 27 (1), 175-191. RAE2008

Body composition and bone mineral density changes during a premier league season as measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry

Wallace, Joanne, et al., 'Body composition and bone mineral density changes during a premier league season as measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry', International Journal of Body Composition Research (2006) 4(2) pp.61-66 RAE2008

Spying on Science : Western Intelligence in Divided Germany, 1945-1961

Maddrell, John, Spying on Science: Western Intelligence in Divided Germany, 1945-1961 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), pp.xi+330 RAE2008

Workplace sedentary health risks and exercise interventions

Sedentary lifestyle and physical inactivity are causes of major health risks including cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and cancer. Workplace is an ideal setting to understand both the prevalence of these risks and for devising and implementing effective intervention strategies. It is now possible to perform direct workplace assessments to identify the sedentary prevalence and assess the sedentary related health risks, which can include assessing the risks of atherosclerosis, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hyperglyaemia and reduced cardiorespiratory capacity. Based on evaluating the workplace health risks, it is possible to identify individuals who may be at higher CVD risk so they can be targeted with a risk-reduction intervention that can also be tailored towards improving healthy behaviours, especially towards physical activity activity and exercise. This chapter explains workplace sedentary risks, and provides examples of CVD risk prevalence, particularly within the university campus workplace, and presents examples of an exercise based targeted interventions aimed at reducing CVD risks amongst high risk sedentary employees.

Novel coatings for hard tissue implants

A novel deposition process named CoBlastTM, based on grit blasting technology, has been used to deposit hydroxyapatite (HA) onto titanium (Ti) metal using a dopant/abrasive regime. The various powders (HA powder, apatitic abrasives) and the treated substrates were characterised for chemical composition, coating coverage, crystallinity and topography including surface roughness. The surface roughness of the HA surfaces could be altered using apatitic abrasives of different particle sizes. Compared to the standard plasma spraying process, the CoBlast surface produced excellent coating adhesion, lower dissolution, higher levels of mechanical and chemical stability in stimulated body fluid (SBF). Enhanced viability of osteoblastic cells was also observed on the CoBlast HA surfaces compared to the microblast and untreated Ti as well as the plasma HA coating. CoBlast offers an alternative to the traditional methods of coating HA implants with added versatility. Apatites substituted with antimicrobial metals can also be deposited to add functionality to HA coatings without cytotoxicty. The potential use of these coatings as an infection preventing strategy for application on hard tissue implants was assessed in vitro and also in vivo. Surface physicochemical properties and morphology were determined in addition to surface cytocompatibility assessments using a MG-63 osteoblast cell line. The antibacterial potential of the immobilised metal ion on the surface and the eluted ion to a lesser extent, contributed to the anticolonising behaviour of the surfaces against a standard bacteria strain (S. aureus) as well as a number of clinically relevant strains (MRSA, MSSA and S. epidermis). The results revealed that the surfaces coated with silver substituted apatites (AgA) outperformed the other apatites examined (apatites loaded with Zn, Sr and both Ag and Sr ions). Assessment of bacterial adherence on coated K-wires following subcutaneous implantation in a nude mouse infection model (S. aureus) for two days demonstrated that the 12% wt surface outperformed the 5% wt AgA coating. Lower inflammatory responses were activated with the insertion of the Ag loaded K-wires with a localised infection at the implantation site noted over the two day study period. These results indicated that the AgA coating on the surface of orthopaedic implants demonstrate good biocompatibility whilst inhibiting bacterial adhesion and colonising of the implant surface.

Thomas Wolfe and the genre question: Beyond the "charge of autobiography"

The North Carolinian author Thomas Wolfe (1900‐1938) has long suffered under the “charge of autobiography,” which lingers to this day in critical assessments of his work. Criticism of Wolfe is frequently concerned with questions of generic classification, but since the 1950s, re‐assessments of Wolfe’s work have suggested that Wolfe’s “autobiographical fiction” exhibits a complexity that merits further investigation. Strides in autobiographical and narrative theory have prompted reconsiderations of texts that defy the artificial boundaries of autobiography and fiction. Wolfe has been somewhat neglected in the canon of American fiction of his era, but deserves to be reconsidered in terms of how he engages with the challenges and contradictions of writing about or around the self. This thesis investigates why Wolfe’s work has been the source of considerable critical discomfort and confusion with regard to the relationship between Wolfe’s life and his writing. It explores this issue through an examination of elements of Wolfe’s work that problematise categorisation. Firstly, it investigates the concept of Wolfe as “storyteller.” It explores the motivations and philosophies that underpin Wolfe’s work and his concept of himself as a teller of tales, and examines aspects of Wolfe’s writing process that have their roots in medieval traditions of the memorisation and recitation of tales. The thesis then conducts a detailed examination of how Wolfe describes the process of transforming his memory into narrative through writing. The latter half of the thesis examines narrative techniques used by Wolfe, firstly analysing his extensive use of the iterative and pseudo‐iterative modes, and then his unusual deployment of narrators and focalization. This project sheds light on elements of Wolfe’s approach to writing and narrative strategies that he employs that have previously been overlooked, and that have created considerable critical confusion with regard to the supposedly “autobiographical” genesis of his work.

Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.