Ever further from Moscow. Russia's stance on Central Asia. OSW Study 48/2014

The post-Soviet countries of Central Asia are important for Moscow as a potential source of danger; as a site of its relationships with China, the West and the Islamic world; and not least as a space covered by Russia’s integration initiatives. Since the collapse of the USSR, Russian influence in this region has undergone a far-reaching erosion. The Kremlin’s consistent actions to build up the Eurasian Union, as well as the threat of destabilisation in region after the ISAF operation in Afghanistan winds up in 2014, have slowed down this process, although it is unlikely to be reversed. The current ‘state of possession’ (i.e. the instruments and assets which Russia possesses) still ensures Moscow a minimum level of control over the region, which means that the activity of other global players is limited. This situation may change in tandem with a rise in their ambitions, especially with the possible involvement of China in the field of ‘hard’ security.

A 300 kyr record of upwelling off Oman during the Late Quaternary: evidence of the Asian southwest monsoon

In the northwest Arabian Sea upwelling occurs each summer, driven by the strong SW monsoon winds. Upwelling results in high biological productivity and a distinctive assemblage of plankton species in the surface waters off Oman that are preserved in the sediments along the Oman continental margin, creating a geologic record of monsoon-driven upwelling. Sediments recovered from the Oman continental margin during Ocean Drilling Program leg 117 provide an opportunity to examine how upwelling has varied during the late Quaternary, spanning a longer interval than piston cores recovered prior to the ODP cruise. Variations in foraminifer shell accumulation and in the relative abundance of Globigerina bulloides indicate dominant cycles of variation at 1/100 kyr, the dominant frequency of glacial-interglacial variations, and at 1/23 kyr, the frequency of precessionally driven cycles in seasonal insolation. The strongest monsoon winds (indicated by increased upwelling) occurred during interglacial times when perihelion was aligned with the summer solstice, an orbital change that increased the insolation received during summer in the northern hemisphere. During glacial times upwelling was reduced, and although the precessional cycles were still present their amplitude was smaller. At both frequencies the upwelling cycles are in phase with minimum ice volume, evidence that glacial-interglacial climate changes also include changes to the climate system that influence the low-latitude monsoon. We attribute the decrease in the monsoon winds observed during glacial times to changes in bare land albedo over Asia and/or to changes in the areal extent and seasonal cycle in Asian snow cover that decrease the summer land-sea temperature contrast. Other mechanisms may also be involved. These new upwelling time series differ substantially from previous results, however the previous work relied on cores located farther offshore where upwelling is less intense and other physical mechanisms become important. Our results support the observations derived from atmospheric general circulation models of the atmosphere that indicate that both glacial boundary conditions, and the strength of summer insolation are important variables contributing to cycles in the monsoon winds during the late Quaternary.

Sedimentology and stable isotope ratios of planktonic foraminifera from two cores off Northeastern Brazil

The stable isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera correlates with evidence for pulses of terrigenous sediment in a sediment core from the upper continental slope off northeastern Brazil. Stable oxygen isotope records of the planktonic foraminiferal species Globigerinoides sacculifer and Globigerinoides ruber (pink) reveal sub-Milankovitch changes in sea-surface hydrography during the last 85,000 yr. Warming of the surface water coincided with terrigenous sedimentation pulses that are inferred from high XRF intensities of Ti and Fe, and which suggest humid conditions in northeast Brazil. These tropical signals correlate with climatic oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores (Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles) and in sediment cores from the North Atlantic (Heinrich events). Trade winds may have caused changes in the North Brazil Current that altered heat and salt flux into the North Atlantic, thus affecting the growth and decay of the large glacial ice sheets.

Stable isotope record, Mg/Ca ratios and sea surface reconstruction for sediment core MD06-3067

We present sea surface, upper thermocline, and benthic d18O data, as well as temperature and paleoproductivity proxy data, from the International Marine Global Change Study Program (IMAGES) Core MD06-3067 (6°31'N, 126°30'E, 1575 m water depth), located in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean within the flow path of the Mindanao Current. Our records reveal considerable glacial-interglacial and suborbital variability in the Mindanao Dome upwelling over the last 160 kyr. Dome activity generally intensified during glacial intervals resulting in cooler thermocline waters, whereas it substantially declined during interglacials, in particular in the early Holocene and early marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 5e, when upwelling waters did not reach the thermocline. During MIS 3 and MIS 2, enhanced surface productivity together with remarkably low SST and low upper ocean thermal contrast provide evidence for episodic glacial upwelling to the surface, whereas transient surface warming marks periodic collapses of the Mindanao Dome upwelling during Heinrich events. We attribute the high variability during MIS 3 and MIS 2 to changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation state that affected boreal winter monsoonal winds and upper ocean circulation. Glacial upwelling intensified when a strong cyclonic gyre became established, whereas El Niño-like conditions during Heinrich events tended to suppress the cyclonic circulation, reducing Ekman transport. Thus, our findings demonstrate that variations in the Mindanao Dome upwelling are closely linked to the position and intensity of the tropical convection and also reflect far-field influences from the high latitudes.

Benthic and planktic foraminiferal stable isotope record and coccolith abundance spanning the last 500,000 years of ODP Hole 121-758C

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is an inter-hemispheric and highly variable ocean-atmosphere-land interaction that directly affects the densely populated Indian subcontinent. Here, we present new records of palaeoceanographic variability that span the last 500,000 years from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, a relatively under-sampled area of ISM influence. We have generated carbon and oxygen stable isotope records from three foraminiferal species from Ocean Drilling Program Site 758 (5°N, 90°E) to investigate the oceanographic history of this region. We interpret our resultant Dd18O (surface-thermocline) record of upper water-column stratification in the context of past ISM variability, and compare orbital phase relationships in our Site 758 data to other climate and monsoon proxies in the region. Results suggest that upper water-column stratification at Site 758, which is dominated by variance at precession and half-precession frequencies (23, 19 and 11 ka), is forced by both local (5°N) insolation and ISM winds. In the precession (23 ka) band, stratification minima at Site 758 lag northern hemisphere summer insolation maxima (precession minima) by 9 ka, which is consistent with Arabian Sea ISM phase estimates and suggests a common wind forcing in both regions. This phase implicates a strong sensitivity to both ice volume and southern hemisphere insolation forcing via latent heat export from the southern subtropical Indian Ocean. Additionally, we find evidence of possible overprinting of millennial-scale events during glacial terminations in our stratification record, which suggests an influence of remote abrupt climate events on ISM dynamics.

Tropical Atlantic SST during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) of ODP Hole 175-1077B

We compare a new mid-Pleistocene sea surface temperature (SST) record from the eastern tropical Atlantic to changes in continental ice volume, orbital insolation, Atlantic deepwater ventilation, and Southern Ocean front positions to resolve forcing mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT). At the onset of the MPT, a strong tropical cooling occurred. The change from a obliquity- to a eccentricity-dominated cyclicity in the tropical SST took place at about 650 kyr BP. In orbital cycles, tropical SST changes significantly preceded continental ice-volume changes but were in phase with movements of Southern Ocean fronts. After the onset of large-amplitude 100-kyr variations, additional late glacial warming in the eastern tropical Atlantic was caused by enhanced return flow of warm waters from the western Atlantic driven by strong trade winds. Pronounced 80-kyr variations in tropical SST occurred during the MPT, in phase with and likely directly forced by transitional continental ice-volume variations. During the MPT, a prominent anomalous long-term tropical warming occurred, likely generated by extremely northward displaced Southern Ocean fronts. While the overall pattern of global climate variability during the MPT was determined by changes in mean state and frequency of continental ice volume variations, tropical Atlantic SST variations were primarily driven by early changes in Subantarctic sea-ice extent and coupled Southern Ocean frontal positions.

Pollen abundance in Late Quaternary sediment cores off West Africa

The pollen record of three marine late Quaternary cores off Senegal shows a juxtaposition of Mediterranean, Northern Saharan, Central Saharan elements, which are considered transported by the trade winds from a winter-rainfall area, and Sahelian, Soudanese, Soudano-Guinean elements, considered transported both by winds and mostly by the Senegal River, and coming from the monsoonal, summer tropical rainfall area of southern West Africa. Littoral vegetation is either the edaphically dry and saline Chenopodiaceae from sebkhas at the time of the main regression, or the warm tropical humid mangrove with Rhizophora during the humid optimum period. Four stratigraphic zones reflect, from basis to top: Zone 4. A semi-arid period with a balanced pollen input. Zone 3. A very arid period with the disappearance of monsoonal pollen, probably from the disappearance of the Senegal River, a very saline littoral plain with Chenopodiaceae, a larger input of northern Saharan pollen from intensified trade winds. Zone 2. A quite humid period, much more so than today, very suddenly established, with a northward extension of the monsoonal areas, a rich littoral mangrove, and weakening of the trade winds. Zone l. A slow and steady evolution toward the present semi-humid conditions with regression of the mangrove, and of the monsoonal areas toward the south. Tentative datations and correlations with the Tchad area suggested: zone 4: 22,500 to 19,000 years BP; zone 3: 19,000 to 12,500 years BP; zone 2: 12,500 to 5,500 years BP; zone 1: 5,500 years BP to top of core. Dinoflagellate cysts display a tropical assemblage with mostly estuarine neritic elements and also a weak oceanic component, mostly in the lower slope core 47. Cosmopolitan taxa dominate the assemblage and only a few species point to more specialized environments. Quantitative variations of the assemblage are the basis of stratigraphy which is not similar to the pollen stratigraphy, and an inshore-outshore gradient has to be taken into account to correlate the three cores.

Mineralogy of ODP Hole 117-722B (Appendix)

Bulk mineralogy of the terrigenous fraction of 99 samples from ODP Site 722 on the Owen Ridge, western Arabian Sea, has been determined by x-ray diffraction, using an internal standard method. The sampling interval, approximately 4.3 k.y., provides a detailed mineralogic record for the past 500 k.y. Previous studies have identified important modern continental sediment sources and the mineral assemblages presently derived from each. These studies have also demonstrated that most of this material is supplied by southwest and northwest winds during the summer monsoon. A variety of marine and terrestrial records and general circulation model (GCM) simulations have indicated the importance of monsoonal circulation during the Pleistocene and Holocene and have demonstrated increased aridity during glacial times and increased humidity during inter glacials. The mineralogic data generated here were used to investigate variations in source area weathering conditions during these environmental changes. Terrigenous minerals present include smectite, illite, palygorskite, kaolinite, chlorite, quartz, plagioclase feldspar, and dolomite. This mineralogy is consistent with the compositions of source areas presently supplying sediment to the Arabian Sea. An R-mode factor analysis has identified four mineral assemblages present throughout the past 500 k.y.: quartz/chlorite/dolomite (Factor 1), kaolinite/plagioclase/illite (Factor 2), smectite (Factor 3), and palygorskite/dolomite (Factor 4). Chlorite, illite, and palygorskite are extremely susceptible to chemical weathering, and a spectral comparison of these factors with the eolian mass accumulation rate (MAR) record from Hole 722B (an index of dust source area aridity) indicates that Factors 1, 2, and 4 are directly related to changes in aridity. Because of these characteristics, Factors 1,2, and 4 are interpreted to originate from arid source regions. Factor 3 is interpreted to record more humid source conditions. Time-series of scores for the four factors are dominated by short-term (10-100 k.y.) variability, and do not correlate well to glacial/interglacial fluctuations in the time domain. These characteristics suggest that local climatic shifts were complex, and that equilibrium weathering assemblages did not develop immediately after climatic change. Spectral analysis of factor scores identifies peaks at or near the primary Milankovitch frequencies for all factors. Factor 1 (quartz/chlorite/dolomite), Factor 2 (kaolinite/plagioclase/illite), and Factor 4 (illite/palygorskite) are coherent and in phase with the MAR record over the 23, 41, and 100 k.y. bands, respectively. The reasons for coherency at single Milankovitch frequencies are not known, but may include differences in the susceptibilities of minerals to varying time scales of weathering and/or preferential development of suitable continental source environments by climatic changes at the various Milankovitch frequencies.

The late Pliocene pollen record of ODP Site 108-658 off Cape Blanc, Atlantic Ocean

A 200 m long marine pollen record from ODP Site 658 (21°N, 19°W) reveals cyclic fluctuations in vegetation and continental climate in northwestern Africa from 3.7 to 1.7 Ma. These cycles parallel oxygen isotope stages. Prior to 3.5 Ma, the distribution of tropical forests and mangrove swamps reached Cape Blanc, 5°N of the present distribution. Between 3.5 and 2.6 Ma, forests occurred at this latitude during irregular intervals and nearly disappeared afterwards. Likewise, a Saharan paleoriver flowed continuously until isotope Stage 134 (3.35 Ma). When river discharge ceased, wind transport of pollen grains prevailed over fluvial transport. Pollen indicators of trade winds gradually increased between 3.3 and 2.5 Ma. A strong aridification of the climate of northwestern Africa occurred during isotope Stage 130 (3.26 Ma). Afterwards, humid conditions reestablised followed by another aridification around 2.7 Ma. Repetitive latitudinal shifts of vegetation zones ranging from wooded savanna to desert flora dominated for the first time between between 2.6 and 2.4 Ma as a response to the glacial stages 104, 100 and 98. Although climatic conditions, recorded in the Pliocene, were not as dry as those of the middle and Late Pleistocene, latitudinal vegetation shifts near the end of the Pliocene resembled those of the interglacial-glacial cycles of the Brunhes chron.

Seasonal changes in sediment core PS1795-2

The Weddell Sea and the associated Filchner-Rønne Ice Shelf constitute key regions for global bottomwater production today. However, little is known about bottom-water production under different climate and icesheet conditions. Therefore, we studied core PS1795, which consists primarily of fine-grained siliciclastic varves that were deposited on contourite ridges in the southeastern Weddell Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We conducted high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis and grain-size measurements with the RADIUS tool (Seelos and Sirocko, 2005, doi:10.1111/j.1365-3091.2005.00715.x) using thin sections to characterize the two seasonal components of the varves at sub-mm resolution to distinguish the seasonal components of the varves. Bright layers contain coarser grains that can mainly be identified as quartz in the medium-to-coarse silt grain size. They also contain higher amounts of Si, Zr, Ca, and Sr, as well as more ice-rafted debris (IRD). Dark layers, on the other hand, contain finer particles such as mica and clay minerals from the chlorite and illite groups. In addition, Fe, Ti, Rb, and K are elevated. Based on these findings as well as on previous analyses on neighbouring cores, we propose a model of enhanced thermohaline convection in front of a grounded ice sheet that is supported by seasonally variable coastal polynya activity during the LGM. Accordingly, katabatic (i.e. offshore blowing) winds removed sea ice from the ice edge, leading to coastal polynya formation. We suggest that glacial processes were similar to today with stronger katabatic winds and enhanced coastal polynya activity during the winter season. Under these conditions, lighter coarser-grained layers are likely glacial winter deposits, when brine rejection was increased, leading to enhanced bottom-water formation and increased sediment transport. Vice versa, darker finer-grained layers were then deposited during less windier season, mainly during summer, when coastal polynya activity was likely reduced.