Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model

This paper considers the instrumental variable regression model when there is uncertainty about the set of instruments, exogeneity restrictions, the validity of identifying restrictions and the set of exogenous regressors. This uncertainty can result in a huge number of models. To avoid statistical problems associated with standard model selection procedures, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows us to do Bayesian model averaging. The algorithm is very exible and can be easily adapted to analyze any of the di¤erent priors that have been proposed in the Bayesian instrumental variables literature. We show how to calculate the probability of any relevant restriction (e.g. the posterior probability that over-identifying restrictions hold) and discuss diagnostic checking using the posterior distribution of discrepancy vectors. We illustrate our methods in a returns-to-schooling application.

Native language, spoken language, translation and trade

We construct new series for common native language and common spoken language for 195 countries, which we use together with series for common official language and linguis-tic proximity in order to draw inferences about (1) the aggregate impact of all linguistic factors on bilateral trade, (2) whether the linguistic influences come from ethnicity and trust or ease of communication, and (3) in so far they come from ease of communication, to what extent trans-lation and interpreters play a role. The results show that the impact of linguistic factors, all together, is at least twice as great as the usual dummy variable for common language, resting on official language, would say. In addition, ease of communication is far more important than ethnicity and trust. Further, so far as ease of communication is at work, translation and inter-preters are extremely important. Finally, ethnicity and trust come into play largely because of immigrants and their influence is otherwise difficult to detect.

An Analysis of the Electoral Use of Policy on Law and Order by New Labour

There has been much debate regarding the electoral strategy adopted by New Labour in the lead-up to and then during their time in government. This paper addresses the issue from the perspective of left/right and libertarian/authoritarian considerations by examining data on individual attitudes from the British Social Attitudes survey between 1986 and 2009. The analysis indicates that New Labour’s move towards the right on economic and public policy was the main driver towards attracting new centrist voters and could thus be labelled ‘broadly’ populist. The move towards a tougher stance on law and order was more ‘narrowly’ populist in that it was used more to minimise the reduction in support from Labour’s traditional base on the left than to attract new votes.

Native language, spoken language, translation and trade

We construct new series for common native language and common spoken language for 195 countries, which we use together with series for common official language and linguis-tic proximity in order to draw inferences about (1) the aggregate impact of all linguistic factors on bilateral trade, (2) whether the linguistic influences come from ethnicity and trust or ease of communication, and (3) in so far they come from ease of communication, to what extent trans-lation and interpreters play a role. The results show that the impact of linguistic factors, all together, is at least twice as great as the usual dummy variable for common language, resting on official language, would say. In addition, ease of communication is far more important than ethnicity and trust. Further, so far as ease of communication is at work, translation and inter-preters are extremely important. Finally, ethnicity and trust come into play largely because of immigrants and their influence is otherwise difficult to detect.

Sharp Bounds on Heterogeneous Individual Treatment Responses

This paper discusses how to identify individual-specific causal effects of an ordered discrete endogenous variable. The counterfactual heterogeneous causal information is recovered by identifying the partial differences of a structural relation. The proposed refutable nonparametric local restrictions exploit the fact that the pattern of endogeneity may vary across the level of the unobserved variable. The restrictions adopted in this paper impose a sense of order to an unordered binary endogeneous variable. This allows for a uni.ed structural approach to studying various treatment effects when self-selection on unobservables is present. The usefulness of the identi.cation results is illustrated using the data on the Vietnam-era veterans. The empirical findings reveal that when other observable characteristics are identical, military service had positive impacts for individuals with low (unobservable) earnings potential, while it had negative impacts for those with high earnings potential. This heterogeneity would not be detected by average effects which would underestimate the actual effects because different signs would be cancelled out. This partial identification result can be used to test homogeneity in response. When homogeneity is rejected, many parameters based on averages may deliver misleading information.

Transcriptomic and functional analysis of an autolysis-deficient, teicoplanin-resistant derivative of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

The molecular basis of glycopeptide-intermediate S. aureus (GISA) isolates is not well defined though frequently involves phenotypes such as thickened cell walls and decreased autolysis. We have exploited an isogenic pair of teicoplanin-susceptible (strain MRGR3) and teicoplanin-resistant (strain 14-4) methicillin-resistant S. aureus strains for detailed transcriptomic profiling and analysis of altered autolytic properties. Strain 14-4 displayed markedly deficient Triton X-100-triggered autolysis compared to its teicoplanin-susceptible parent, although microarray analysis paradoxically did not reveal significant reductions in expression levels of major autolytic genes atl, lytM, and lytN, except for sle1, which showed a slight decrease. The most important paradox was a more-than-twofold increase in expression of the cidABC operon in 14-4 compared to MRGR3, which was correlated with decreased expression of autolysis negative regulators lytSR and lrgAB. In contrast, the autolysis-deficient phenotype of 14-4 was correlated with both increased expression of negative autolysis regulators (arlRS, mgrA, and sarA) and decreased expression of positive regulators (agr RNAII and RNAIII). Quantitative bacteriolytic assays and zymographic analysis of concentrated culture supernatants showed a striking reduction in Atl-derived, extracellular bacteriolytic hydrolase activities in 14-4 compared to MRGR3. This observed difference was independent of the source of cell wall substrate (MRGR3 or 14-4) used for analysis. Collectively, our results suggest that altered autolytic properties in 14-4 are apparently not driven by significant changes in the transcription of key autolytic effectors. Instead, our analysis points to alternate regulatory mechanisms that impact autolysis effectors which may include changes in posttranscriptional processing or export.

A public key encryption based on third order linear sequences

Based on third order linear sequences, an improvement version of the Diffie-Hellman distribution key scheme and the ElGamal public key cryptosystem scheme are proposed, together with an implementation and computational cost. The security relies on the difficulty of factoring an RSA integer and on the difficulty of computing the discrete logarithm.

HSU-Robbins and Spitzer's theorems for the variations of fractional Brownian motion

Using recent results on the behavior of multiple Wiener-Itô integrals based on Stein's method, we prove Hsu-Robbins and Spitzer's theorems for sequences of correlated random variables related to the increments of the fractional Brownian motion.

Estimation of lean meat content in pig carcasses using X-ray Computed Tomography and PLS regression

Lean meat percentage (LMP) is an important carcass quality parameter. The aim of this work is to obtain a calibration equation for the Computed Tomography (CT) scans with the Partial Least Square Regression (PLS) technique in order to predict the LMP of the carcass and the different cuts and to study and compare two different methodologies of the selection of the variables (Variable Importance for Projection — VIP- and Stepwise) to be included in the prediction equation. The error of prediction with cross-validation (RMSEPCV) of the LMP obtained with PLS and selection based on VIP value was 0.82% and for stepwise selection it was 0.83%. The prediction of the LMP scanning only the ham had a RMSEPCV of 0.97% and if the ham and the loin were scanned the RMSEPCV was 0.90%. Results indicate that for CT data both VIP and stepwise selection are good methods. Moreover the scanning of only the ham allowed us to obtain a good prediction of the LMP of the whole carcass.

Cell mediated immunity in Chagas' disease: Trypanosoma cruzi antigens induce suppression of the in vitro proliferative response of mononuclear cells

The partial suppression of the cell-mediated immune response by Trypanosoma cruzi antigens in patients with Chagas' disease is demonstrated in a costimulation assay with T. cruzi antigens and Mycobacterium tuberculosis purified protein derivative (PPD) or Tetanus toxoid (TT). ononuclear cells from 13 patients with chagasic infection without evidence of heart disease, 10 patients with chagasic cardiomyopathy and 7 healthy blood donors were stimulated with antigen A (autoclaved epimastigotes), PPD, TT, PPD + A, PPD + TT and TT + A. The average percentage of suppression induced by costimulation of mononuclear cells with PPD and antigen A was 47.1% in patients with chagasic infection without heart disease (INF), 38.8% in patients with chagasic cardiomyopathy (CDM) and 23.3% in healthy controls. Similar values were observed when living trypomastigotes were used. A costimulatory study with PPD and TT, PPD and A and TT and A was carried out in 8 patients with chagasic infection, in order to evaluate the possibility that this difference could be due to a nonspecific inhibitory effect. The mean suppression induced by TT + PPD was -8.9, with TT + A was 52.7 and with PPD + A was 50.1. The data reported show that T. cruzi antigens induce a specific suppression of the proliferative responseof mononuclear cells, that might be relevant to the persistence of the parasite in the host.

Sharp weighted bounds for fractional integral operators

The relationship between the operator norms of fractional integral operators acting on weighted Lebesgue spaces and the constant of the weights is investigated. Sharp bounds are obtained for both the fractional integral operators and the associated fractional maximal functions. As an application improved Sobolev inequalities are obtained. Some of the techniques used include a sharp off-diagonal version of the extrapolation theorem of Rubio de Francia and characterizations of two-weight norm inequalities.

Patrones de tomate: resistencia variable frente al nematodo Meloidogyne

Los patrones de tomate se han propuesto como una alternativa no química al uso del bromuro de metilo. En este estudio se evaluó la respuesta de resistencia de diez patrones de tomate (comerciales y experimentales) a nematodos del género Meloidogyne mediante un ensayo de campo realizado en un invernadero de plástico cuyo suelo se hallaba infestado por Meloidogyne javanica. Al finalizar la campaña agrícola (marzo a julio), siete de los patrones ensayados mostraron altos niveles de resistencia, uno presentó resistencia intermedia y dos resultaron ser susceptibles al nematodo.

Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis in healthy subjects during near-continuous oral nutrition and bed rest: a comparison with published data in artificially fed, critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In critically ill patients, fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis increases in proportion to carbohydrate administration during isoenergetic nutrition. In this study, we sought to determine whether this increase may be the consequence of continuous enteral nutrition and bed rest. We, therefore, measured fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis in a group of 12 healthy subjects during near-continuous oral feeding (hourly isoenergetic meals with a liquid formula containing 55% carbohydrate). In eight subjects, near-continuous enteral nutrition and bed rest were applied over a 10 h period. In the other four subjects, it was extended to 34 h. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis was measured by infusing(13) C-labeled acetate and monitoring VLDL-(13)C palmitate enrichment with mass isotopomer distribution analysis. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis was 3.2% (range 1.5-7.5%) in the eight subjects after 10 h of near continuous nutrition and 1.6% (range 1.3-2.0%) in the four subjects after 34 h of near-continuous nutrition and bed rest. This indicates that continuous nutrition and physical inactivity do not increase hepatic de novo lipogenesis. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis previously reported in critically ill patients under similar nutritional conditions (9.3%) (range 5.3-15.8%) was markedly higher than in healthy subjects (P<0.001). These data from healthy subjects indicate that fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis is increased in critically ill patients.

Investigation of Postmortem Gases: A Forensic Imaging and Analytical Chemistry Approach

Background: Distinguishing postmortem gas accumulations in the body due to natural decomposition and other phenomena such as gas embolism can prove a difficult task using purely Multi-Detector Computed Tomography (MDCT). The Radiological Alteration Index (RAI) was created with the intention to be able to identify bodies undergoing the putrefaction process based on the quantity of gas detected within the body. The flaw in this approach is the inability to absolutely determine putrefaction as the origin of gas volumes in cases of moderate alteration. The aim of the current study is to identify percentage compositions of O2, N2, CO2 and the presence of gases such as H2 and H2S within these sampling sites in order to resolve this complication. Materials and methods: All cases investigated in our University Center of Legal Medicine are undergoing a Post-Mortem Computed Tomography (PMCT)-scan before external examination or autopsy as a routine investigation. In the obtained images, areas of gas were characterized as 0, I, II or III based on the amount of gas present according to the RAI (1). The criteria for these characterizations were dependent of the site of gas, for example thoracic and abdominal cavities were graded as I (1 - 3cm gas), II (3 - 5cm gas) and III (>5cm gas). Cases showing gaseous sites with grade II or III were selected for this study. The sampling was performed under CT-guidance to target the regions to be punctured. Luer-lock PTFE syringes equipped with a three-way valve and needles were used to sample the gas directly (2). Gaseous samples were then analysed using gas chromatography coupled to a thermal conductivity detector (GC-TCD). The components present in the samples were expressed as a percentage of the overall gas present. Results: Up to now, we have investigated more than 40 cases using our standardized procedure for sampling and analysis of gas. O2, N2 and CO2 were present in most samples. The following distributions were found to correlate to gas origins of gas embolism/scuba diving accidents, trauma and putrefaction: ? Putrefaction → O2 = 1 - 5%; CO2 > 15%; N2 = 10 - 70%; H2 / H2S / CH4 variable presence ? Gas embolism/Scuba diving accidents → O2 and N2= varying percentages; CO2 > 20% ? Trauma → O2 = small percentage; CO2 < 15%; N2 > 65% H2 and H2S indicated levels of putrefaction along with methane which can also gauge environmental conditions or conditions of body storage/burial. Many cases showing large RAI values (advanced alteration) did reveal a radiological diagnosis which was in concordance with the interpretation of the gas composition. However, in certain cases (gas embolism, scuba divers) radiological interpretation was not possible and only chemical gas analysis was found to lead to the correct diagnosis, meaning that it provided complementary information to the radiological diagnosis. Conclusion: Investigation of postmortem gases is a useful tool to determine origin of gas generation which can aid the diagnosis of the cause of death. Levels of gas can provide information on stage of putrefaction and help to perform essential medico-legal diagnosis such as vital gas embolism.

Introducció experimental a la biotecnologia amb clavellina: cultiu in vitro

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Es tracta d’una recerca experimental en la que s’han assajat vuit tècniques de cultiu in vitro amb clavellina. El material vegetal s’ha esterilitzat per immersió en una solució diluïda de lleixiu i s’ha manipulat de manera estèril. En tots els casos el medi de cultiu utilitzat ha estat el MS amb una concentració de sacarosa i reguladors de creixement variable segons l’experiment. La incubació dels cultius s’han dut a terme en una cambra amb control de fotoperíode durant 4 setmanes. Els diferents reguladors de creixement han mostrat un clar efecte sobre les seccions de tija. Els explants cultivats en medi lliure d’hormones han crescut menys que els exposats a diverses concentracions de NAA i BA. Aquests tractaments hormonals han originat símptomes de creixement anòmals (engruiximents a la base i vitrificació). La presencia de 2,4-D ha afavorit la formació de cal•lus i d’arrels per organogènesi adventícia indirecta. L’obtenció de plàntules per germinació in vitro de llavors ha permès reduir notablement les pèrdues per contaminació, mentre que el subcultiu d’aquestes ha donat unes tases de micropropagació de 7.2 seccions/plàntula. Ha estat possible aclimatar aquestes vitroplantes per tal d’adaptar-les a les condicions de camp. No hem pogut obtenir organogènesis adventícia ni embriogènesi somàtica a partir d anteres ni hem pogut iniciar un cultiu de cèl•lules a partir dels cal•lus. Tot i la complexitat d’aquestes tècniques, és possible dur-les a terme en un laboratori escolar.