Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Impact of opening a new emergency department on healthcare service and patient outcomes : analyses based on linking ambulance, emergency and hospital databases

Background Emergency department (ED) crowding caused by access block is an increasing public health issue and has been associated with impaired healthcare delivery, negative patient outcomes and increased staff workload. Aim To investigate the impact of opening a new ED on patient and healthcare service outcomes. Methods A 24-month time series analysis was employed using deterministically linked data from the ambulance service and three ED and hospital admission databases in Queensland, Australia. Results Total volume of ED presentations increased 18%, while local population growth increased by 3%. Healthcare service and patient outcomes at the two pre-existing hospitals did not improve. These outcomes included ambulance offload time: (Hospital A PRE: 10 min, POST: 10 min, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 10 min, POST: 15 min, P < 0.001); ED length of stay: (Hospital A PRE: 242 min, POST: 246 min, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 182 min, POST: 210 min, P < 0.001); and access block: (Hospital A PRE: 41%, POST: 46%, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 23%, POST: 40%, P < 0.001). Time series modelling indicated that the effect was worst at the hospital furthest away from the new ED. Conclusions An additional ED within the region saw an increase in the total volume of presentations at a rate far greater than local population growth, suggesting it either provided an unmet need or a shifting of activity from one sector to another. Future studies should examine patient decision making regarding reasons for presenting to a new or pre-existing ED. There is an inherent need to take a ‘whole of health service area’ approach to solve crowding issues.

Investigating the deployment of project management : a new perspective based on the concept of certification

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary description of the doctoral thesis investigating the field of project management (PM) deployment. Researchers will be informed of the current contributions within this topic and of the possible further investigations and researches. The decision makers and practitioners will be aware of a set of tools addressing the PM deployment with new perspectives. Design/methodology/approach – Research undertaken with the thesis is based on quantitative methods using time series statistics (time distance analysis) and comparative and correlation analysis aimed to better define and understand the PM deployment within and between countries or groups. Findings – The results suggest a project management deployment index (PMDI) to objectively measure the PM deployment based on the concept of certification. A proposed framework to empirically benchmark the PM deployment between countries by integrating the PMDI time series with the two dimensional comparative analysis of Sicherl. The correlation analysis within Hoftsede cultural framework shows the impact of the national culture dimensions on the PM deployment. The forecasting model shows a general continual growth trend of the PM deployment, with continual increase in the time distance between the countries. Research limitations/implications – The PM researchers are offered an empirical quantification on which they can construct further investigations and understanding of this phenomenon. The number of possible units that can be studied offers wide possibilities to replicate the thesis work. New researches can be undertaken to investigate further the contribution of other social or economical indicators, or to refine and enrich the definition of the PMDI indicator. Practical implications – These results have important implications on the PM deployment approaches. The PMDI measurements and time series comparisons facilitate considerably the measurement and benchmarking between the units (e.g. countries) and against targets, while the readiness setting of the studied unit (in terms of development and cultural levels) impacts the PM deployment within this country. Originality/value – This paper provides a summary of cutting-edge research work in the studied field of PM deployment and a link to the published works that researchers can use to help them understand the thesis research as well as how it can be extended.

Signal patterns of piston slap of a four-cylinder diesel engine

This paper presents an experimental study on the vibration signal patterns associated with a simulated piston slap test of a four-cylinder diesel engine. It is found that a simulated worn-off piston results in an increase in vibration RMS peak amplitudes associated with the major mechanical events of the corresponding cylinder (i.e., inlet and exhaust valve closing and combustion of Cylinder 1). This then led to an increase of overall vibration amplitude of the time domain statistical features such as RMS, Crest Factor, Skewness and Kurtosis in all loading conditions. The simulated worn-off piston not only increased the impact amplitude of piston slap during the engine combustion, it also produced a distinct impulse response during the air induction stroke of the cylinder attributing to an increase of lateral impact force as a result of piston reciprocating motion and the increased clearance between the worn-off piston and the cylinder. The unique signal patterns of piston slap disclosed in this paper can be utilized to assist in the development of condition monitoring tools for automated diagnosis of similar diesel engine faults in practical applications.

Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

Background: Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results: Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female) for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion: The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is characterized by the predominance of adult men cases. Imported falciparum malaria in the non-endemic area of China, affected mainly by the malaria transmission in Yunnan, has increased both spatially and temporally. Specific intervention measures targeted at the mobile population groups are warranted.

The Citizen’s Round Table process : canvassing public opinion on energy technologies to mitigate climate change

This study draws on communication accommodation theory, social identity theory and cognitive dissonance theory to drive a ‘Citizen’s Round Table’ process that engages community audiences on energy technologies and strategies that potentially mitigate climate change. The study examines the effectiveness of the process in determining the strategies that engage people in discussion. The process is designed to canvas participants’ perspectives and potential reactions to the array of renewable and non-renewable energy sources, in particular, underground storage of CO2. Ninety-five people (12 groups) participated in the process. Questionnaires were administered three times to identify changes in attitudes over time, and analysis of video, audio-transcripts and observer notes enabled an evaluation of level of engagement and communication among participants. The key findings of this study indicate that the public can be meaningfully engaged in discussion on the politically sensitive issue of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) and other low emission technologies. The round table process was critical to participants’ engagement and led to attitude change towards some methods of energy production. This study identifies a process that can be used successfully to explore community attitudes on politically-sensitive topics and encourages an examination of attitudes and potential attitude change.

TS-fuzzy controlled DFIG based wind energy conversion system

This paper focuses on the implementation of the TS (Tagaki-Sugino) fuzzy controller for the active power and the DC capacitor voltage control of the Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind generator. DFIG system is represented by a third-order model where electromagnetic transients of the stator are neglected. The effectiveness of the TS-fuzzy controller on the rotor speed oscillations and the DC capacitor voltage variations of the DFIG damping controller on converter ratings of the DFIG system is also investigated. The results of the time domain simulation studies are presented to elucidate the effectiveness of the TS-fuzzy controller compared with conventional PI controller in the DFIG system. The proposed TS-fuzzy controller can improve the fault ride through capability of DFIG compared to the conventional PI controller

Mathematical modelling of controlled drug release from polymer micro-spheres : incorporating the effects of swelling, diffusion and dissolution via moving boundary problems

Controlled drug delivery is a key topic in modern pharmacotherapy, where controlled drug delivery devices are required to prolong the period of release, maintain a constant release rate, or release the drug with a predetermined release profile. In the pharmaceutical industry, the development process of a controlled drug delivery device may be facilitated enormously by the mathematical modelling of drug release mechanisms, directly decreasing the number of necessary experiments. Such mathematical modelling is difficult because several mechanisms are involved during the drug release process. The main drug release mechanisms of a controlled release device are based on the device’s physiochemical properties, and include diffusion, swelling and erosion. In this thesis, four controlled drug delivery models are investigated. These four models selectively involve the solvent penetration into the polymeric device, the swelling of the polymer, the polymer erosion and the drug diffusion out of the device but all share two common key features. The first is that the solvent penetration into the polymer causes the transition of the polymer from a glassy state into a rubbery state. The interface between the two states of the polymer is modelled as a moving boundary and the speed of this interface is governed by a kinetic law. The second feature is that drug diffusion only happens in the rubbery region of the polymer, with a nonlinear diffusion coefficient which is dependent on the concentration of solvent. These models are analysed by using both formal asymptotics and numerical computation, where front-fixing methods and the method of lines with finite difference approximations are used to solve these models numerically. This numerical scheme is conservative, accurate and easily implemented to the moving boundary problems and is thoroughly explained in Section 3.2. From the small time asymptotic analysis in Sections 5.3.1, 6.3.1 and 7.2.1, these models exhibit the non-Fickian behaviour referred to as Case II diffusion, and an initial constant rate of drug release which is appealing to the pharmaceutical industry because this indicates zeroorder release. The numerical results of the models qualitatively confirms the experimental behaviour identified in the literature. The knowledge obtained from investigating these models can help to develop more complex multi-layered drug delivery devices in order to achieve sophisticated drug release profiles. A multi-layer matrix tablet, which consists of a number of polymer layers designed to provide sustainable and constant drug release or bimodal drug release, is also discussed in this research. The moving boundary problem describing the solvent penetration into the polymer also arises in melting and freezing problems which have been modelled as the classical onephase Stefan problem. The classical one-phase Stefan problem has unrealistic singularities existed in the problem at the complete melting time. Hence we investigate the effect of including the kinetic undercooling to the melting problem and this problem is called the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling. Interestingly we discover the unrealistic singularities existed in the classical one-phase Stefan problem at the complete melting time are regularised and also find out the small time behaviour of the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling is different to the classical one-phase Stefan problem from the small time asymptotic analysis in Section 3.3. In the case of melting very small particles, it is known that surface tension effects are important. The effect of including the surface tension to the melting problem for nanoparticles (no kinetic undercooling) has been investigated in the past, however the one-phase Stefan problem with surface tension exhibits finite-time blow-up. Therefore we investigate the effect of including both the surface tension and kinetic undercooling to the melting problem for nanoparticles and find out the the solution continues to exist until complete melting. The investigation of including kinetic undercooling and surface tension to the melting problems reveals more insight into the regularisations of unphysical singularities in the classical one-phase Stefan problem. This investigation gives a better understanding of melting a particle, and contributes to the current body of knowledge related to melting and freezing due to heat conduction.

Accelerometer-based fetal movement detection

Monitoring fetal wellbeing is a compelling problem in modern obstetrics. Clinicians have become increasingly aware of the link between fetal activity (movement), well-being, and later developmental outcome. We have recently developed an ambulatory accelerometer-based fetal activity monitor (AFAM) to record 24-hour fetal movement. Using this system, we aim at developing signal processing methods to automatically detect and quantitatively characterize fetal movements. The first step in this direction is to test the performance of the accelerometer in detecting fetal movement against real-time ultrasound imaging (taken as the gold standard). This paper reports first results of this performance analysis.

Cometary evolution : clues on physical properties from chondritic interplanetary dust particles

The degree of diversity or similarity detected in comets depends primarily on the lifetimes of the individual cometary nuclei at the time of analysis. It is inherent in our understanding of cometary orbital dynamics and the seminal model of comet origins that cometary evolution is the natural order of events in our Solar System. Thus, predictions of cometary behaviour in terms of bulk physical, mineralogical or chemical parameters should contain an appreciation of temporal variation(s). Previously, Rietmeijer and Mackinnon [1987] developed mineralogical bases for the chemical evolution of cometary nuclei primarily with regard to the predominantly silicate fraction of comet nuclei. We suggested that alteration of solids in cometary nuclei should be expected and that indications of likely reactants and products can be derived from judicious comparison with terrestrial diagenetic environments which include hydrocryogenic and low-temperature aqueous alterations. In a further development of this concept, Rietmeijer [1988] provides indirect evidence for the formation of sulfides and oxides in comet nuclei. Furthermore, Rietmeijer [1988] noted that timescales for hydrocryogenic and low-temperature reactions involving liquid water are probably adequate for relatively mature comets, e.g. P/comet Halley. In this paper, we will address the evolution of comet nuclei physical parameters such as solid particle grain size, porosity and density. In natural environments, chemical evolution (e.g. mineral reactions) is often accompanied by changes in physical properties. These concurrent changes are well-documented in the terrestrial geological literature, especially in studies of sediment diagenesis and we suggest that similar basic principles apply within the upper few meters of active comet nuclei. The database for prediction of comet nuclei physical parameters is, in principle, the same as used for the proposition of chemical evolution. We use detailed mineralogical studies of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPS) as a guide to the likely constitution of mature comets traversing the inner Solar System. While there is, as yet, no direct proof that a specific sub-group or type of chondritic IDP is derived from a specific comet, it is clear that these particles are extraterrestrial in origin and that a certain portion of the interplanetary flux received by the Earth is cometary in origin. Two chondritic porous (CP) IDPS, sample numbers W701OA2 and W7029CI, from the Johnson Space Center Cosmic Dust Collection have been selected for this study of putative cometary physical parameters. This particular type of particle is considered a likely candidate for a cometary origin on the basis of mineralogy, bulk composition and morphology. While many IDPs have been subjected to intensive study over the past decade, we can develop a physical parameter model on only these two CP IDPs because few others have been studied in sufficient detail.

Effect of Reynolds numbers on flow past four square cylinders in an in-line square configuration for different gap spacings

In this paper two-dimensional (2-D) numerical investigation of flow past four square cylinders in an in-line square configuration are performed using the lattice Boltzmann method. The gap spacing g=s/d is set at 1, 3 and 6 and Reynolds number ranging from Re=60 to 175. We observed four distinct wake patterns: (i) a steady wake pattern (Re=60 and g=1) (ii) a stable shielding wake pattern (80≤Re≤175 and g=1) (iii) a wiggling shielding wake pattern (60≤Re≤175 and g=3) (iv) a vortex shedding wake pattern (60≤Re≤175 and g=6) At g=1, the Reynolds number is observed to have a strong effect on the wake patterns. It is also found that at g=1, the secondary cylinder interaction frequency significantly contributes for drag and lift coefficients signal. It is found that the primary vortex shedding frequency dominates the flow and the role of secondary cylinder interaction frequency almost vanish at g=6. It is observed that the jet between the gaps strongly influenced the wake interaction for different gap spacing and Reynolds number combination. To fully understand the wake transformations the details vorticity contour visualization, power spectra of lift coefficient signal and time signal analysis of drag and lift coefficients also presented in this paper.

In vitro functional characterisation of IGF-I : VN-induced breast cancer progression

Members of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) family have been shown to play critical roles in normal growth and development, as well as in tumour biology. The IGF system is complex and the biological effects of the IGFs are determined by their diverse interactions between many molecules, including their interactions with extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins. Recent studies have demonstrated that IGFs associate with the ECM protein vitronectin (VN) through IGF-binding proteins (IGFBP) and that this interaction modulates IGF-stimulated biological functions, namely cell migration and cell survival through the cooperative involvement of the type-I IGF receptor (IGF-1R) and VN-binding integrins. Since IGFs play important roles in the transformation and progression of breast cancer and VN has been found to be over-expressed at the leading edge of breast tumours, this project aimed to describe the effects of IGF-I:VN interactions on breast cell function. This was undertaken to dissect the molecular mechanisms underlying IGF-I:VN-induced responses and to design inhibitors to block the effects of such interactions. The studies described herein demonstrate that the increase in migration of MCF-7 breast cancer cells in response to the IGF-I:IGFBP-5:VN complex is accompanied by differential expression of genes known to be involved in migration, invasion and/or survival, including Tissue-factor (TF), Stratifin (SFN), Ephrin-B2, Sharp-2 and PAI-1. This „migration gene signature‟ was confirmed using real-time PCR analysis. Substitution of the native IGF-I within the IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complex with the IGF-I analogue, \[L24]\[A31]-IGF-I, which has a reduced affinity for the IGF-1R, failed to stimulate cell migration and interestingly, also failed to induce the differential gene expression. This supports the involvement of the IGF-1R in mediating these changes in gene expression. Furthermore, lentiviral shRNA-mediated stable knockdown of TF and SFN completely abrogated the increased cell migration induced by IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complexes in MCF-7 cells. Indeed, when these cells were grown in 3D Matrigel™ cultures a decrease in the overall size of the 3D spheroids in response to the IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complexes was observed compared to the parental MCF-7 cells. This suggests that TF and SFN have a role in complex-stimulated cell survival. Moreover, signalling studies performed on cells with the reduced expression of either TF or SFN had a decreased IGF-1R activation, suggesting the involvement of signalling pathways downstream of IGF-1R in TF- and/or SFN-mediated cell migration and cell survival. Taken together, these studies provide evidence for a common mechanism activated downstream of the IGF-1R that induces the expression of the „migration gene signature‟ in response to the IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complex that confers breast cancer cells the propensity to migrate and survive. Given the functional significance of the interdependence of ECM and growth factor (GF) interactions in stimulating processes key to breast cancer progression, this project aimed at developing strategies to prevent such growth factor:ECM interactions in an effort to inhibit the downstream functional effects. This may result in the reduction in the levels of ECM-bound IGF-I present in close proximity to the cells, thereby leading to a reduction in the stimulation of IGF-1R present on the cell surface. Indeed, the inhibition of IGF-I-mediated effects through the disruption of its association with ECM would not alter the physiological levels of IGF-I and potentially only exert effects in situations where abnormal over expression of ECM proteins are found; namely carcinomas and hyperproliferative diseases. In summary, this PhD project has identified novel, innovative and realistic strategies that can be used in vitro to inhibit the functions exerted by the IGF-I:IGFBP:VN multiprotein complexes critical for cancer progression, with a potential to be translated into in vivo investigations. Furthermore, TF and SFN were found to mediate IGF-I:IGFBP:VN-induced effects, thereby revealing their potential to be used as therapeutic targets or as predictive biomarkers for the efficacy of IGF-1R targeting therapies in breast cancer patients. In addition to its therapeutic and clinical scope, this PhD project has significantly contributed to the understanding of the role of the IGF system in breast tumour biology by providing valuable new information on the mechanistic events underpinning IGF-I:VN-mediated effects on breast cell functions. Furthermore, this is the first instance where favourable binding sites for IGF-II, IGFBP-3 and IGFBP-5 on VN have been identified. Taken together, this study has functionally characterised the interactions between IGF-I and VN and through innovative strategies has provided a platform for the development of novel therapies targeting these interactions and their downstream effects.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

How transit route passenger load and distance can together influence quality of service

This paper investigates quality of service and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel distance. Weekday Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate correlation between load factor and distance factor. Relationships between boardings and transit work indicate that distance factor generally increases with load factor. Time series analysis is then presented by examining each direction on an hour by hour basis. Inbound correlation is medium to strong across the entire span of service and strong for daytime services up to 19:30, while outbound correlation is strong across the entire span. Passengers tend to be making longer distance, peak direction commuter trips under the least comfortable conditions under stretched peak schedules than off-peak. Therefore productivity gains may be possible by adjusting fleet utilization during off-peak times. Weekday profiles by direction are established for a composite load-distance factor. A threshold corresponding to standing passengers on the Maximum Load Segment reveals that on-board loading and travel distance combined are more severe during the morning inbound peak than evening outbound peak, although the sharpness of the former suggests that encouraging shoulder peak travel during the morning would be more effective than evening peak. Further research suggested includes: consideration of travel duration factor, relating noise within hour to Peak Hour Factor, profiling load-distance factor across a range of case studies, and relating load-distance factor threshold to line length.

The velocity synchronous discrete Fourier transform for order tracking in the field of rotating machinery

Diagnostics of rotating machinery has developed significantly in the last decades, and industrial applications are spreading in different sectors. Most applications are characterized by varying velocities of the shaft and in many cases transients are the most critical to monitor. In these variable speed conditions, fault symptoms are clearer in the angular/order domains than in the common time/frequency ones. In the past, this issue was often solved by synchronously sampling data by means of phase locked circuits governing the acquisition; however, thanks to the spread of cheap and powerful microprocessors, this procedure is nowadays rarer; sampling is usually performed at constant time intervals, and the conversion to the order domain is made by means of digital signal processing techniques. In the last decades different algorithms have been proposed for the extraction of an order spectrum from a signal sampled asynchronously with respect to the shaft rotational velocity; many of them (the so called computed order tracking family) use interpolation techniques to resample the signal at constant angular increments, followed by a common discrete Fourier transform to shift from the angular domain to the order domain. A less exploited family of techniques shifts directly from the time domain to the order spectrum, by means of modified Fourier transforms. This paper proposes a new transform, named velocity synchronous discrete Fourier transform, which takes advantage of the instantaneous velocity to improve the quality of its result, reaching performances that can challenge the computed order tracking.