Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

HURDAT is the main historical archive of all tropical storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, from 1851 to the present. HURDAT is maintained and updated annually by the National Hurricane Center at Miami, Florida. Today, HURDAT is widely used by research scientists, operational hurricane forecasters, insurance companies, emergency managers and others. HURDAT contains both systematic biases and random errors. Thus, the reanalysis of HURDAT is vital. For this thesis, HURDAT is reanalyzed for the period of 1954-1963. The track and intensity of each existing tropical cyclone in HURDAT is assessed in the light of 21st century understanding and previously unrecognized tropical cyclones are detected and analyzed. The resulting changes will be recommended to the National Hurricane Center Best Track Change Committee for inclusion in HURDAT.

Carbon and Nitrogen Stable Isotopic Patterns in South Florida Coastal Ecosystems: Modern and Paleoceanographic Perspectives

Long term management plans for restoration of natural flow conditions through the Everglades increase the importance of understanding potential nutrient impacts of increased freshwater delivery on coastal biogeochemistry. The present study sought to increase understanding of the coastal marine system of South Florida under modern conditions and through the anthropogenic changes in the last century, on scales ranging from individual nutrient cycle processes to seasonal patterns in organic material (OM) under varying hydrodynamic regime, to century scale analysis of sedimentary records. In all applications, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic compositions of OM were examined as natural recorders of change and nutrient cycling in the coastal system. High spatial and temporal variability in stable isotopic compositions were observed on all time scales. During a transient phytoplankton bloom, ä15N values suggested nitrogen fixation as a nutrient source supporting enhanced productivity. Seasonally, particulate organic material (POM) from ten sites along the Florida Reef Tract and in Florida Bay demonstrated variable fluctuations dependent on hydrodynamic setting. Three separate intra-annual patterns were observed, yet statistical differences were observed between groupings of Florida Bay and Atlantic Ocean sites. The POM ä15N values ranged on a quarterly basis by 7‰, while ä13C varied by 22‰. From a sediment history perspective, four cores collected from Florida Bay further demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the system in isotopic composition of bulk OM over time. Source inputs of OM varied with location, with terrestrial inputs dominating proximal to Everglades freshwater discharge, seagrasses dominating in open estuary cores, and a marine mixture of phytoplankton and seagrass in a core from the boundary zone between Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant shifts in OM geochemistry were observed coincident with anthropogenic events of the 20th century, including railroad and road construction in the Florida Keys and Everglades, and also the extensive drainage changes in Everglades hydrology. The sediment record also preserved evidence of the major hurricanes of the last century, with excursions in geochemical composition coincident with Category 4-5 storms.

Table 1. Tree growth index and reconstructed precipitation series from 515 BC to AD 1993 based on the archaeological and living tree ring datasets from Dulan and Shenge, China

Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74-25 BC, AD 51-375, 426-500, 526-575, 626-700, 1100-1225, 1251-1325, 1451-1525, 1651-1750 and 1801-1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred during AD 376-425, 576-625, 951-1050, 1351-1375, 1551-1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years.

(Table 1) Magnetic susceptibility, lithologic composition and stable isotope record for ODP Hole 132-810C

Site 810 was drilled atop Shatsky Rise during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 132. The principal objective at Site 810 was to drill interbedded cherts and chalks of Mesozoic age using the diamond coring system (DCS). The objective was not achieved because of difficulties in setting up the reentry cone on the seafloor; however, a shortened section of Cretaceous-Cenozoic nannofossil ooze was recovered with the advanced piston corer (APC). Although the section is interrupted by hiatuses, the upper 50 m carry detailed information relating to biogenic productivity, water chemistry, and eolian input during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. Four holes were drilled at Site 810. Hole 810A consists of a single mud-line core for an ongoing ODP geriatric study. The second hole (Hole 810B) was washed to 60 mbsf (without core recovery) to provide information required for setting the 16-in. casing attached to the reentry cone. Hole 810C penetrated 136.1 mbsf, mostly with the APC, with a total recovery of 143.81 m of nannofossil ooze. A reentry cone was placed over Hole 810D but no casing was successfully suspended in the hole and no sediment was cored. This data report presents the results of shore-based high-resolution analyses of carbonate and oxygen isotopic variations in the upper 50 m of the section at Site 810 and compares these variations with the shipboard determinations of magnetic susceptibility and GRAPE bulk density from the multisensor track.

Sea surface temperatures reconstructed from alkenones of surface sediment samples of the Argentine Basin at stations GeoB1501-1 to GeoB2830-1

We analysed the alkenone unsaturation ratio (UK'37) in 87 surface sediment samples from the western South Atlantic (5°N-50°S) in order to evaluate its applicability as a paleotemperature tool for this part of the ocean. The measured UK'37 ratios were converted into temperature using the global core-top calibration of Müller et al. (1998, doi:10.1016/S0016-7037(98)00097-0) and compared with annual mean atlas sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of overlying surface waters. The results reveal a close correspondence (<1.5°C) between atlas and alkenone temperatures for the Western Tropical Atlantic and the Brazil Current region north of 32°S, but deviating low alkenone temperatures by -2° to -6°C are found in the regions of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (35-39°S) and the Malvinas Current (41-48°S). From the oceanographic evidence these low UK'37 values cannot be explained by preferential alkenone production below the mixed layer or during the cold season. Higher nutrient availability and algal growth rates are also unlikely causes. Instead, our results imply that lateral displacement of suspended particles and sediments, caused by strong surface and bottom currents, benthic storms, and downslope processes is responsible for the deviating UK'37 temperatures. In this way, particles and sediments carrying a cold water UK'37 signal of coastal or southern origin are transported northward and offshore into areas with warmer surface waters. In the northern Argentine Basin the depth between displaced and unaffected sediments appears to coincide with the boundary between the northward flowing Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW) and the southward flowing North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at about 4000 m.

Revisiting the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous of the NW South Iberian Basin: new ages and sedimentary environments

The study of the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous deposits (Higueruelas, Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Formations) of the South Iberian Basin (NW Valencia, Spain) reveals new stratigraphic and sedimentological data, which have significant implications on the stratigraphic framework, depositional environments and age of these units. The Higueruelas Fm was deposited in a mid-inner carbonate platform where oncolitic bars migrated by the action of storms and where oncoid production progressively decreased towards the uppermost part of the unit. The overlying Villar del Arzobispo Fm has been traditionally interpreted as an inner platform-lagoon evolving into a tidal-flat. Here it is interpreted as an inner-carbonate platform affected by storms, where oolitic shoals protected a lagoon, which had siliciclastic inputs from the continent. The Aldea de Cortés Fm has been previously interpreted as a lagoon surrounded by tidal-flats and fluvial-deltaic plains. Here it is reinterpreted as a coastal wetland where siliciclastic muddy deposits interacted with shallow fresh to marine water bodies, aeolian dunes and continental siliciclastic inputs. The contact between the Higueruelas and Villar del Arzobispo Fms, classically defined as gradual, is also interpreted here as rapid. More importantly, the contact between the Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Fms, previously considered as unconformable, is here interpreted as gradual. The presence of Alveosepta in the Villar del Arzobispo Fm suggests that at least part of this unit is Kimmeridgian, unlike the previously assigned Late Tithonian-Middle Berriasian age. Consequently, the underlying Higueruelas Fm, previously considered Tithonian, should not be younger than Kimmeridgian. Accordingly, sedimentation of the Aldea de Cortés Fm, previously considered Valangian-Hauterivian, probably started during the Tithonian and it may be considered part of the regressive trend of the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous cycle. This is consistent with the dinosaur faunas, typically Jurassic, described in the Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Fms.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

Climate-driven shifts in species' distributions may exacerbate the impacts of storm disturbances on North-east Atlantic kelp forests

Physical disturbance through wave action is a major determinant of kelp forest structure. The North-east Atlantic storm season of 2013–14 was unusually severe; the south coast of the UK was subjected to 6 of the 12 most intense storms recorded in the past 5 years. Inshore significant wave heights and periods exceeded 7 m and 13 s with two storms classified as ‘1-in-30 year’ events. We examined the impacts of the storm season on kelp canopies at three study sites. Monospecific canopies comprising Laminaria hyperborea were unaffected by storm disturbance. However, at one study site a mixed canopy comprising Laminaria ochroleuca, Saccharina latissima and L. hyperborea was significantly altered by the storms, due to decreased abundances of the former two species. Quantification of freshly severed stipes suggested that the ‘warm water’ kelp L. ochroleuca was more susceptible to storm damage than L. hyperborea. Overall, kelp canopies were highly resistant to storm disturbance because of the low vulnerability of L. hyperborea to intense wave action. However, if climate-driven shifts in kelp species distributions result in more mixed canopies, as predicted, then resistance to storm disturbance may be eroded.

On a first-name basis: Englishization and naming in Flanders

Following and contributing to the ongoing shift from more structuralist, system-oriented to more pragmatic, socio-cultural oriented anglicism research, this paper verifies to what extent the global spread of English affects naming patterns in Flanders. To this end, a diachronic database of first names is constructed, containing the top 75 most popular boy and girl names from 2005 until 2014. In a first step, the etymological background of these names is documented and the evolution in popularity of the English names in the database is tracked. Results reveal no notable surge in the preference for English names. This paper complements these database-driven results with an experimental study, aiming to show how associations through referents are in this case more telling than associations through phonological form (here based on etymology). Focusing on the socio-cultural background of first names in general and of Anglo-American pop culture in particular, the second part of the study specifically reports on results from a survey where participants are asked to name the first three celebrities that leap to mind when hearing a certain first name (e.g. Lana, triggering the response Del Rey). Very clear associations are found between certain first names and specific celebrities from Anglo-American pop culture. Linking back to marketing research and the social turn in onomastics, we will discuss how these celebrities might function as referees, and how social stereotypes surrounding these referees are metonymically attached to their first names. Similar to the country-of-origin-effect in marketing, these metonymical links could very well be the reason why parents select specific “celebrity names”. Although further attitudinal research is needed, this paper supports the importance of including socio-cultural parameters when conducting onomastic research.

Impacts des dépositions atmosphériques de fer sur les assemblages phytoplanctoniques et la production de diméthylsulfure dans le Pacifique Nord-Est contemporain et dans le contexte de l’acidification des océans

La croissance du phytoplancton est limitée par les faibles concentrations de fer (Fe) dans près de 40% de l’océan mondial. Le Pacifique subarctique Nord-Est représente une de ces zones limitées en fer et désignées High Nutrient - Low Chlorophyll (HNLC). Cet écosystème, dominé par des cellules de petite taille telles les prymnésiophytes, est caractérisé par de très faibles concentrations estivales de chlorophylle a et de fortes concentrations de macronutriments. Il a été maintes fois démontré que les ajouts de fer, sous différentes formes chimiques (habituellement FeSO4), dans les zones HNLC, stimulent la croissance et modifient la structure des communautés planctoniques en favorisant la croissance des cellules de grande taille, notamment les diatomées. Ces effets sur la communauté planctonique ont le potentiel d’influencer les grands mécanismes régulateurs du climat, tels la pompe biologique de carbone et la production de diméthylsulfure (DMS). Les poussières provenant des déserts du nord de la Chine sont reconnues depuis longtemps comme une source sporadique importante de fer pour le Pacifique Nord-Est. Malgré leur importance potentielle, l’influence directe exercée par ces poussières sur l’écosystème planctonique de cette zone HNLC n’a jamais été étudiée. Il s’agit d’une lacune importante puisque le fer associé aux poussières est peu soluble dans l’eau de mer, que la proportion biodisponible n’est pas connue et que les poussières peuvent avoir un effet inhibiteur chez le phytoplancton. Cette thèse propose donc, dans un premier temps, de mesurer pour la première fois l’effet de la fertilisation de la communauté planctonique du Pacifique Nord-Est par un gradient de concentrations de poussières désertiques naturelles. Cette première expérimentation a démontré que le fer contenu dans les poussières asiatiques est biodisponible et qu’une déposition équivalente à celles prenant place au printemps dans le Pacifique Nord-Est peut résulter en une stimulation significative de la prise de nutriments et de la croissance du phytoplancton. Mes travaux ont également montré que l’ajout de 0,5 mg L-1 de poussières peut résulter en la production d’autant de biomasse algale que l’ajout de FeSO4, l’espèce chimique utilisée lors des expériences d’enrichissement en fer à grande échelle. Cependant, les ajouts de FeSO4 favorisent davantage les cellules de petite taille que les ajouts de poussières, observation démontrant que le FeSO4 n’est pas un proxy parfait des poussières asiatiques. Dans un deuxième temps, je me suis intéressée à une source alternative de fer atmosphérique, les cendres volcaniques. Mon intérêt pour cette source de fer a été attisé par les observations d’une floraison spectaculaire dans le Pacifique Nord-Est, ma région d’étude, associée à l’éruption de 2008 du volcan Kasatochi dans les îles Aléoutiennes. Forte de mon expérience sur les poussières, j’ai quantifié l’effet direct de ces cendres volcaniques sur la communauté planctonique du Pacifique Nord-Est. Mes résultats ont montré que le fer contenu dans les cendres volcaniques est également biodisponible pour le phytoplancton. Ils ont également montré que cette source de fer peut être aussi importante que les poussières désertiques dans la régulation de la croissance du phytoplancton dans cette partie de l’océan global à l’échelle millénaire. Dans un troisième temps, j’ai estimé comment l’acidification des océans modulera les réponses des communautés planctoniques aux dépositions naturelles de fer mises en évidence lors de mes expériences précédentes. Pour ce faire, j’ai effectué des enrichissements de poussière dans de l’eau de mer au pH actuel de 8.0 et dans l’eau de mer acidifiée à un pH de 7.8. Mes résultats ont montré une diminution du taux de croissance du phytoplancton dans le milieu acidifié mais pas de changement notable dans la structure de la communauté. Les ajouts de poussières et de cendres, de même que les variations de pH, n’ont pas eu d’effet significatif sur la production de DMS et de son précurseur le diméthylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), probablement en raison de la courte durée (4 jours) des expériences. L’ensemble des résultats de cette thèse montre que le fer contenu dans diverses sources atmosphériques naturelles est biodisponible pour le phytoplancton du Pacifique Nord-Est et que des taux de déposition réalistes peuvent stimuler la croissance de manière notable dans les premiers jours suivant une tempête désertique ou une éruption volcanique. Finalement, les résultats de mes expériences à stresseurs multiples Fer/acidification suggèrent une certaine résistance des communautés phytoplanctoniques à la diminution du pH prédite d’ici la fin du siècle pour les eaux de surface des océans.

Contribution à la planification tactique et opérationnelle du transport forestier

Cette thèse est une contribution à la modélisation, la planification et l’optimisation du transport pour l’approvisionnement en bois de forêt des industries de première transformation. Dans ce domaine, les aléas climatiques (mise au sol des bois par les tempêtes), sanitaires (attaques bactériologiques et fongiques des bois) et commerciaux (variabilité et exigence croissante des marchés) poussent les divers acteurs du secteur (entrepreneurs et exploitants forestiers, transporteurs) à revoir l’organisation de la filière logistique d’approvisionnement, afin d’améliorer la qualité de service (adéquation offre-demande) et de diminuer les coûts. L’objectif principal de cette thèse était de proposer un modèle de pilotage améliorant la performance du transport forestier, en respectant les contraintes et les pratiques du secteur. Les résultats établissent une démarche de planification hiérarchique des activités de transport à deux niveaux de décision, tactique et opérationnel. Au niveau tactique, une optimisation multi-périodes permet de répondre aux commandes en minimisant l’activité globale de transport, sous contrainte de capacité agrégée des moyens de transport accessibles. Ce niveau permet de mettre en œuvre des politiques de lissage de charge et d’organisation de sous-traitance ou de partenariats entre acteurs de transport. Au niveau opérationnel, les plans tactiques alloués à chaque transporteur sont désagrégés, pour permettre une optimisation des tournées des flottes, sous contrainte des capacités physiques de ces flottes. Les modèles d’optimisation de chaque niveau sont formalisés en programmation linéaire mixte avec variables binaires. L’applicabilité des modèles a été testée en utilisant un jeu de données industrielles en région Aquitaine et a montré des améliorations significatives d’exploitation des capacités de transport par rapport aux pratiques actuelles. Les modèles de décision ont été conçus pour s’adapter à tout contexte organisationnel, partenarial ou non : la production du plan tactique possède un caractère générique sans présomption de l’organisation, celle-ci étant prise en compte, dans un deuxième temps, au niveau de l’optimisation opérationnelle du plan de transport de chaque acteur.

2008: A Record Wet and Stormy Year in Illinois

published or submitted for publication

The Severe Winter of 2008-09 in Illinois

published or submitted for publication

Sedimentary evidence for a mid-Holocene iceberg-generated tsunami in a coastal lake, west Greenland

We report sedimentological evidence for a tsunami from a coastal lake at Innaarsuit, Disko Bugt (west Greenland), which was most likely generated by a rolling iceberg. The tsunami invaded the lake c. 6000 years ago, during a period of time when relative sea level (RSL) was falling quickly because of isostatic rebound. We use the background rate of RSL fall, together with an age model for the sediment sequence, to infer a minimum wave run-up during the event of c. 3.3 m. The stratigraphic signature of the event bears similarities to that described from studies of the early-Holocene Storegga slide tsunami in Norwegian coastal basins. Conditions conducive to iceberg tsunami include a supply of icebergs, deep water close to the shore, a depositional setting protected from storms or landslide tsunami, and a coastal configuration that has the potential to amplify the height of tsunami waves as water depths shallow and the waves approach and impact the coast. Future warming of polar regions will lead to increased calving and iceberg production, at a time when human use of polar coasts will also grow. We predict, therefore, that iceberg-generated tsunami will become a growing hazard in polar coastal waters, especially in areas adjacent to large, fast-flowing, marine-terminating ice streams that are close to human populations or infrastructure.

A geologia nos Planos de Ordenamento da Orla Costeira dos Açores

Dissertação de Mestrado, Geologia do Ambiente e Sociedade, 15 de Junho de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.