Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

New product screening in fast moving consumer goods

Theory suggests that the dimensions that are incorporated in the new product screening decision will differ according to the stage of the development process. The outcome of the application of different screening dimensions would be quicker, realistic and more reliable screening decisions. This research project builds on existing new product development and screening literature by investigating new product screening in international fast moving consumer goods companies. It further builds on the existing literature by measuring decision-making relating to projects in 'real time', as managers' responses refer to projects they are currently working on. The introduction of branded consumer products allows us to evolve scales used in new product research by further developing variables relating to branding, promotion and retailer power. The project uncovers multiple dimensions of new product screening and evaluation within this branded product sector. These dimensions are found to differ in their ability to discriminate between two groups of accepted and rejected projects at each of four stages of the new product development process. This investigation provides the intelligence with which managers can determine the likelihood of project acceptance and rejection at different stages of the development process. It highlights the need for managers to apply stage-specific dimensions in the new product screening decision and advocates the redefinition of new product screening from both an academic and managerial perspective. The screening decision should not be viewed as a single, early decision in a product development process, but as a series of stage specific decisions regarding future project potential.

City branding:can goods and services branding models be used to brand cities?

A city's branding is investigated using generic product and services branding models. Two generic branding models and tourism segmentation models guide an investigation into city branding 'as it should be' and 'as it is' using Birmingham, England as a case study. The unique characteristics of city brands are identified and Keller's Brand Report Card provides a theoretical framework for building a picture of the brand-building activity taking place in the city. Four themes emerge and are discussed: 1) the impact of a network on brand models developed for organisations; 2) segmentation of brand elements; 3) corporate branding; and 4) the political dimension. A conclusion is that city branding would be more effective if the systems and structures of generic branding models were adopted.

Analysis of rubber vulcanisates

A study has been made, using High Pressure Liquid Chromatography, of the migration of TMQ (a quinoline type) and 6PPD (a paraphenylenediamine type) antidegradants from a tyre sidewall compound into adjacent casing and liner compounds containing no antidegradant. Migration takes place at a rapid rate, even during the vulcanisation of the composite. After 4000 hours ageing in nitrogen at 100oC, there is a higher level of antidegradants in the casing than in the sidewall. An equilibrium distribution is not obtained. After 114 days at 50oC in 95% relative humidity, the level of solvent extractable 6PPD fell to zero, but subsequent ageing for 2 years in 50 pphm ozone showed no evidence of sidewall cracking. It is suggested that the antidegradant is still active but linked to the polymer chain. An analytical method, for the type and amount of sulphenamide accelerators in vulcanised rubber compounds, has been developed. During the vulcanisation process, the accelerators decay, liberating specific amines which have been solvent extracted, derivatised with 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene and the yellow coloured zwitter ion analysed using High Pressure Liquid Chromatography. The decay of the accelerator and sulphur during the vulcanisation process, has been studied. It has been demonstrated that the sulphur crosslinking with a styrenebutadiene polymer is a first order reaction, after an initial period during which the accelerator content falls to zero. Variations in sulphur to accelerator ratios gave consistent rate constants for the crosslinking, except for a sulphur level of less than 1% by weight and a ratiio of accelerator to sulphur of 1:1.3. The retention time of the reaction product between sulphur and accelerator from an HPLC column changes with cure time, showing that the precurser to crosslinking is an ever changing material. One of these reaction products has been analysed.

Mechanisms of antifatigue agents used in natural rubber

A large number of compounds containing quinonoid or hindered phenol functions were examined for their roles as antifatigue agents. Among the evaluated quinones and phenols expected to have macroalkyl radical scavenging ability, BQ, αTOC, γTOC and GM showed relatively good performance for fatigue resistance (although their performance was slightly less effective than the commercial aromatic amine antioxidants, IPPD and 6PPD). The compounds which were shown to have higher reactivity with alkyl radicals (via calculated reactivity indices) showed better fatigue resistance. This fact supports the suggestion that strong alkyl radical scavengers should be also effective antifatigue agents. Evidence produced based on calculation of reactivity indices suggests that the quinones examined react with alkyl radicals on the meta position of the quinone rings producing phenoxyl radicals. The phenoxyl radicals are expected either to disproportionate, to recombine with a further alkyl radical, or to abstract a hydrogen from another alkyl radical producing an olefine. The regeneration of quinones and formation of the corresponding phenols is expected to occur during the antifatigue activity. The phenol antioxidant, HBA is expected to produce a quinonoid compound and this is also expected to function in a similar way to other quinones. Another phenol, GM, which is also known to scavenge alkyl radicals showed good antifatigue performance. Tocopherols had effective antifatigue activity and are expected to have different antifatigue mechanisms from that of other quinones, hence αTOC was examined for its mechanisms during rubber fatiguing using HPLC analysis. Trimers of αTOC which were produced during vulcanisation are suggested to contribute to the fatigue activity observed. The evidence suggests that the trimers reproduce αTOC and a mechanism was proposed. Although antifatigue agents evaluated showed antifatigue activity, most of them had poor thermoxidative resistance, hence it was necessary to compensate for this by using a combination of antioxidants with the antifatigue agents. Reactive antioxidants which have the potential to graft on the polymer chains during reactive processing were used for this purpose. APMA was the most effective antioxidant among other evaluated reactive antioxidants. Although high ratio of grafting was achieved after optimisation of grafting conditions, it is suggested that this was achieved by long branches of APMA due to large extent of polymerisation. This is expected to cause maldistribution of APMA leading to reducing the effect of CB-D activity (while CB-A activity showed clear advantages for grafting). Further optimisation of grafting conditions is required in order to use APMA more effectively. Moreover, although synergistic effects between APMA and antifatigue agents were expected, none of the evaluated antifatigue agents, BQ, αTOC, γTOC and TMQ, showed significant synergism both in fatigue and thermoxidative resistance. They performed just as additives.

Individual differences in work behaviour of blue-collar workers : a study of rubber tappers in Malaysia

This thesis examines individual differences in work behaviour of rubber tappers. The study examined sex, age, experience and race differences and their interactions with terrain on job performance, absenteeism, and job satisfaction of 1053 rubber tappers. Rubber tappers are unskilled blue-collar workers who essentially do the same type of work and are paid the same rates of pay. There are very few studies that have compared male and female blue-collar workers doing similar jobs in organisational settings. This study is one of the few investigations that examine sex differences in job performance of blue-collar workers doing same job using production data. Studies on age differences in work behaviour encounter numerous methodological difficulties such as high turnover, internal transfers and problems associated with age differences in educational levels. The participation of rubber tappers in this study is envisaged to overcome these difficulties because attrition rates of rubber tappers are low, and internal transfers are non existent. Further, the educational levels of rubber tappers are relatively similar across different age cohorts, as most rubber tappers have little or no education. Two measures of both job performance and absenteeism were derived from payroll records. The two job performance measures were total crop production and attendance. The two absenteeism measures were avoidable and unavoidable absence rates. Overall job satisfaction was determined using a 4-item scale. Significant sex, age, experience and race differences were obtained for job performance, absenteeism and job satisfaction. Significant interactive effects were also obtained for sex, age , experience, race and terrain for job performance and absenteeism. The results are discussed in relation to the abilities and motivation of rubber tappers. The implication of these findings for employee selection and human resource management in rubber estates is discussed.