On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

Essential elements for recruitment and retention : Generation Y

Purpose: Generation Y (Gen Y) is the newest and largest generation entering the workforce. Gen Y may differ from previous generations in work-related characteristics which may have recruitment and retention repercussions. Currently, limited theoretically-based research exists regarding Gen Y’s work expectations and goals in relation to undergraduate students and graduates. Design/methodology/approach: This study conducted a theoretically-based investigation of the work expectations and goals of student- and working-Gen Y individuals based within a framework incorporating both expectancy-value and goal setting theories. N = 398 provided useable data via an on-line survey. Findings: Overall, some support was found for predictions with career goals loading on a separate component to daily work expectations and significant differences between student- and working- Gen Y on career goals. No significant differences were found, however, between the two groups in daily work expectations. Research limitations/implications: Future research may benefit from adopting a theoretical framework which assesses both daily work expectations and career goals when examining the factors which motivate Gen Y’s decisions to join and remain at a particular organisation. Practical implications: At a practical level, based on the findings, some examples are provided of the means by which organisations may draw upon daily work expectations and career goals of importance to Gen Y and, in doing so, influence the likelihood that a Gen Y individual will join and remain at their particular organisation. Originality/value: This research has demonstrated the utility of adopting a sound theoretical framework in furthering understanding about the motivations which influence organisations’ ability to recruit and retain Gen Y, among both student Gen Y as well as those Gen Y individuals who are already working.

Incident investigation training needs for the Australasian rail industry

A core component for the prevention of re-occurring incidents within the rail industry is rail safety investigations. Within the current Australasian rail industry, the nature of incident investigations varies considerably between organisations. As it stands, most of the investigations are conducted by the various State Rail Operators and Regulators, with the more major investigations in Australia being conducted or overseen by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB). Because of the varying nature of these investigations, the current training methods for rail incident investigators also vary widely. While there are several commonly accepted training courses available to investigators in Australasia, none appear to offer the breadth of development needed for a comprehensive pathway. Furthermore, it appears that no single training course covers the entire breadth of competencies required by the industry. These courses range in duration between a few days to several years, and some were run in-house while others are run by external consultants or registered training organisations. Through consultations with rail operators and regulators in Australasia, this paper will identify capabilities required for rail incident investigation and explore the current training options available for rail incident investigators.

Extending the explanatory utility of the EPPM beyond fear-based persuasion

In the 20 years since its inception, the EPPM has attracted much empirical support. Currently, and unsurprisingly given that is a model of fear-based persuasion, the EPPM’s explanatory utility has been based only upon fear-based messages. However, an argument is put forth herein, which draws upon existing evidence, that the EPPM may be an efficacious framework for explaining the persuasive process and outcomes of emotion-based messages more broadly when such messages are addressing serious health topics. For the current study, four different types of emotional appeals were purposefully devised and included a fear, an annoyance/agitation, a pride, and a humour-based message. All messages addressed the serious health issue of road safety, and in particular the risky behaviour of speeding. Participants (N = 551) were exposed to only one of the four messages and subsequently provided responses within a survey. A series of 2 (threat: low, high) x 2 (efficacy: low, high) analysis of variance was conducted for each of the appeals based on the EPPM’s message outcomes of acceptance and rejection. Support was found for the EPPM with a number of main effects of threat and efficacy emerging, reflecting that, irrespective of emotional appeal type, high levels of threat and efficacy enhanced message outcomes via maximising acceptance and minimising rejection. Theoretically, the findings provide support for the explanatory utility of the EPPM for emotion-based health messages more broadly. In an applied sense, the findings highlight the value of adopting the EPPM as a framework when devising and evaluating emotion-based health messages for serious health topics.

Relationships between self-reported bicycling injuries and perceived risk of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

The focus of governments on increasing active travel has motivated renewed interest in cycling safety. Bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers so understanding the relationship among factors in bicyclist crash risk is critically important for identifying effective policy tools, for informing bicycle infrastructure investments, and for identifying high risk bicycling contexts. This study aims to better understand the complex relationships between bicyclist self reported injuries resulting from crashes (e.g. hitting a car) and non-crashes (e.g. spraining an ankle) and perceived risk of cycling as a function of cyclist exposure, rider conspicuity, riding environment, rider risk aversion, and rider ability. Self reported data from 2,500 Queensland cyclists are used to estimate a series of seemingly unrelated regressions to examine the relationships among factors. The major findings suggest that perceived risk does not appear to influence injury rates, nor do injury rates influence perceived risks of cycling. Riders who perceive cycling as risky tend not to be commuters, do not engage in group riding, tend to always wear mandatory helmets and front lights, and lower their perception of risk by increasing days per week of riding and by increasing riding proportion on bicycle paths. Riders who always wear helmets have lower crash injury risk. Increasing the number of days per week riding tends to decrease both crash injury and non crash injury risk (e.g. a sprain). Further work is needed to replicate some of the findings in this study.

Licensing age issues : deliberations from a workshop devoted to this topic

Objective: To highlight the issues and discuss the research evidence regarding safety, mobility, and other consequences of different licensing ages. Methods: Information included is based on presentations and discussions at a one-day workshop on licensing age issues, and a review and synthesis of the international literature. Results: The literature indicates that higher licensing ages are associated with safety benefits. There is an associated mobility loss, more likely to be an issue in rural states. Legislative attempts to raise the minimum age for independent driving in the United States, e.g., from 16 to 17, have been resisted, although in some states the age has been raised indirectly through graduated driver licensing (GDL) policies. Conclusions: Jurisdictions can achieve reductions in teenage crashes by raising the licensing age. This can be done directly, or indirectly by strengthening GDL systems, in particular extending the minimum length of the learner period.

The influence of parental health beliefs on child restraint practices in a regional centre in Queensland

Since March 2010 in Queensland, legislation has specified the type of restraint and seating row for child passengers under 7 years according to age. The following study explored regional parents’ child restraint practices and the influence of their health beliefs over these. A brief intercept interview was verbally administered to a convenience sample of parent-drivers (n = 123) in Toowoomba in February 2010, after the announcement of changes to legislation but prior to enforcement. Parents who agreed to be followed-up were then reinterviewed after the enforcement (May-June 2010). The Health Beliefs Model was used to gauge beliefs about susceptibility to crashing, children being injured in a crash, and likely severity of injuries. Self-efficacy and perceptions about barriers to, and benefits of, using age-appropriate restraints with children, were also assessed. Results: There were very high levels of rear seating reported for children (initial interview 91%; follow-up 100%). Dedicated child restraint use was 96.9% at initial interview, though 11% were deemed inappropriate for the child’s age. Self-reported restraint practices for children under 7 were used to categorise parental practices into ‘Appropriate’ (all children in age-appropriate restraint and rear seat) or ‘Inappropriate’ (≥1 child inappropriately restrained). 94% of parents were aware of the legislation, but only around one third gave accurate descriptions of the requirements. However, 89% of parents were deemed to have ‘Appropriate’ restraint practices. Parents with ‘Inappropriate’ practices were significantly more likely than those with ‘Appropriate’ practices to disagree that child restraints provide better protection for children in a crash than adult seatbelts. For self-efficacy, parents with ‘Appropriate’ practices were more likely than those with ‘Inappropriate’ practices to report being ‘completely confident’ about installing child restraints. The results suggest that efforts to increase the level of appropriate restraint should attempt to better inform them about the superior protection offered by child restraints compared with seat belts for children.

Comparison of self-reported driving behaviours and experiences of immediate-uptake and delayed-uptake licence holders

The objective of this paper was to explore experiences of ‘immediate-uptake’ (intermediate licensure at age 17-18 years, n = 928) and ‘delayed-uptake’ (intermediate licensure at age 19-20 years, n = 158) driver’s licence holders in the Australian state of Queensland. In Queensland, the graduated driver licence program applies to all novices irrespective of age. Drivers who obtained a Provisional 1 (intermediate) (P1) licence completed a survey exploring pre-Licence and Learner experiences, including the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale (BYNDS). Six months later, 351 drivers from this sample (n = 300 immediate-uptake) completed a survey exploring P1 driving. Delayed-uptake Learners reported significantly more difficulty gaining driving practice, which appeared to be associated with significantly greater engagement in unsupervised driving during the Learner period. Whilst a larger proportion of delayed-uptake novices, particularly males, reported the use of more active punishment avoidance strategies (avoiding Police, talking themselves out of a ticket) in the P1 phase, there was no significant difference in the BYNDS scores in the Learner and P1 phases according to licence-uptake category. Delayed-uptake novices report more difficulty meeting GDL requirements and place themselves at increased risk by driving unsupervised during the Learner licence phase. Additional efforts such as mentoring programs which can support the delayed-uptake Learner in meeting their GDL obligations merit further consideration to allow this novice group to gain the full benefits of the GDL program and to reduce their risk of harm in the short-term.

Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration

Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

A comparison of perceived crash risk among cyclists and drivers in Brisbane

The Queensland Government has implemented strategies promoting a shift from individual car use to active transport, a transition which requires drivers to adapt to sharing the road with increased numbers of people cycling through transport network. For this to occur safely, changes in both road infrastructure and road user expectations and behaviors will be needed. Creating separate cycle infrastructure does not remove the need for cyclists to commence, cross or finish travel on shared roads. Currently intersections are one of the predominant shared road spaces where crashes result in cyclists being injured or killed. This research investigates how Brisbane cyclists and drivers perceive risk when interacting with other road users at intersections. The current study replicates a French study conducted by co-authors Chaurand and Delhomme in 2011 and extends it to assess gender effects which have been reported in other Australian cycling research. An online survey was administered to experienced cyclists and drivers. Participants rated the level of risk they felt when imagining a number of different road situations. Based on the earlier French study it is expected that perceived crash risk will be influenced both by the participant’s mode of travel and the type of interacting vehicle and perceived risk will be greater when the interaction is with a car than a bicycle. It is predicted that risk perception will decrease as the level of experience increases and that male participants will have a higher perception of skill and lower perception of risk than females. The findings of this Queensland study will provide a valuable insight into perceived risk and the traffic behaviours of drivers and cyclists when interacting with other road users and results will be available for presentation at the Congress.

Sustainable, safe, smart—three key elements of Singapore’s evolving transport policies

Sustainability, safety and smartness are three key elements of a modern transportation system. This study illustrates various policy directions and initiatives of Singapore to address how its transportation system is progressing in light of these three components. Sustainability targets economical efficiency, environmental justice and social equity by including policies for integrating land use and transport planning, ensuring adequate transport supply measures, managing travel demand efficiently, and incorporating environment-friendly strategies. Safety initiatives of its transportation system aim to minimize injuries and incidents of all users including motorists, public transport commuters, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Smartness incorporates qualities like real time sensing, fast processing and decision making, and automated action-taking into its control, monitoring, information management and revenue collection systems. Various policy implications and technology applications along these three directions reveal that smart technologies facilitate implementation of policies promoting sustainability and safety. The Singapore experience could serve as a good reference for other cities in promoting a transportation system that is sustainable, safe and smart.

Analysis of traffic injury severity in a mega city of a developing country

Despite a considerable amount of research on traffic injury severities, relatively little is known about the factors influencing traffic injury severity in developing countries, and in particular in Bangladesh. Road traffic crashes are a common headline in daily newspapers of Bangladesh. It has also recorded one of the highest road fatality rates in the world. This research identifies significant factors contributing to traffic injury severity in Dhaka – a mega city and capital of Bangladesh. Road traffic crash data of 5 years from 2007 to 2011 were collected from the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP), which included about 2714 traffic crashes. The severity level of these crashes was documented in a 4-point ordinal scale: no injury (property damage), minor injury, severe injury, and death. An ordered Probit regression model has been estimated to identify factors contributing to injury severities. Results show that night time influence is associated with a higher level injury severity as is for individuals involved in single vehicle crashes. Crashes on highway sections within the city are found to be more injurious than crashes along the arterial and feeder roads. There is a lower likelihood of injury severity, however, if the road sections are monitored and enforced by the traffic police. The likelihood of injuries is lower on two-way traffic arrangements than one-way, and at four-legged intersections and roundabouts compare to road segments. The findings are compared with those from developed countries and the implications of this research are discussed in terms of policy settings for developing countries.

Examination of distracted driving and yellow light running : analysis of simulator data

Driving on an approach to a signalized intersection while distracted is particularly dangerous, as potential vehicular conflicts and resulting angle collisions tend to be severe. Given the prevalence and importance of this particular scenario, the decisions and actions of distracted drivers during the onset of yellow lights are the focus of this study. Driving simulator data were obtained from a sample of 58 drivers under baseline and handheld mobile phone conditions at the University of Iowa - National Advanced Driving Simulator. Explanatory variables included age, gender, cell phone use, distance to stop-line, and speed. Although there is extensive research on drivers’ responses to yellow traffic signals, the examination has been conducted from a traditional regression-based approach, which does not necessary provide the underlying relations and patterns among the sampled data. In this paper, we exploit the benefits of both classical statistical inference and data mining techniques to identify the a priori relationships among main effects, non-linearities, and interaction effects. Results suggest that novice (16-17 years) and young drivers’ (18-25 years) have heightened yellow light running risk while distracted by a cell phone conversation. Driver experience captured by age has a multiplicative effect with distraction, making the combined effect of being inexperienced and distracted particularly risky. Overall, distracted drivers across most tested groups tend to reduce the propensity of yellow light running as the distance to stop line increases, exhibiting risk compensation on a critical driving situation.

A coupled SPH/FEM analysis of portable water filled barriers

Portable water filled barriers (PWFB) are semi-rigid roadside barriers which have the potential to display good crash attenuation characteristics at low and moderate impact speeds. The traditional mesh based numerical methods alone fail to simulate this type of impact with precision, stability and efficiency. This paper proposes to develop an advanced simulation model based on the combination of Smoothed Particles Hydrodynamics (SPH), a meshless method, and finite element method (FEM) for fluid-structure analysis using the commercially available software package LS-Dyna. The interaction between SPH particles and FEA elements is studied in this paper. Two methods of element setup at the element boundary were investigated. The response of the impacted barrier and fluid inside were analysed and compared. The system response and lagging were observed and reported in this paper. It was demonstrated that coupled SPH/FEM can be used in full scale PWFB modelling application. This will aid the research in determining the best initial setup to couple FEA and SPH in road safety barrier for impact response and safety analysis in the future.

Effects of average speed enforcement on speed compliance and crashes : a review of the literature

Average speed enforcement is a relatively new approach gaining popularity throughout Europe and Australia. This paper reviews the evidence regarding the impact of this approach on vehicle speeds, crashes rates and a number of additional road safety and public health outcomes. The economic and practical viability of the approach as a road safety countermeasure is also explored. A literature review, with an international scope, of both published and grey literature was conducted. There is a growing body of evidence to suggest a number of road safety benefits associated with average speed enforcement, including high rates of compliance with speed limits, reductions in average and 85th percentile speeds and reduced speed variability between vehicles. Moreover, the approach has been demonstrated to be particularly effective in reducing excessive speeding behaviour. Reductions in crash rates have also been reported in association with average speed enforcement, particularly in relation to fatal and serious injury crashes. In addition, the approach has been shown to improve traffic flow, reduce vehicle emissions and has also been associated with high levels of public acceptance. Average speed enforcement offers a greater network-wide approach to managing speeds that reduces the impact of time and distance halo effects associated with other automated speed enforcement approaches. Although comparatively expensive it represents a highly reliable approach to speed enforcement that produces considerable returns on investment through reduced social and economic costs associated with crashes.