961 resultados para Risk aversion
Resumo:
Fatty acids, fibre, carotenoids and tocopherols in relation to glucose metabolism in subjects at high risk for type 2 diabetes a cross-sectional analysis Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disorder of carbohydrate, lipid and protein metabolism, resulting from genetics, environmental influences and interactions between these. The disease is characterized by insulin resistance, β-cell dysfunction, hepatic glucose overproduction and disordered fat mobilization and storage. The literature on associations between dietary factors and glucose metabolism is inconsistent. One factor behind the discrepant results may be genetic heterogeneity of study populations. Data on nutrient-gene interactions in relation to glucose metabolism are scarce. Thus, investigating high-risk populations and exploring nutrient-gene interactions are essential for improving the understanding of T2D aetiology. Ideally, this information could help to develop prevention programmes that take into account the genetic predisposition to the disease. In this study, associations between measures of glucose metabolism predicting T2D and fatty acids, antioxidative nutrients and fibre were examined in a high-risk population, i.e., in non-diabetic relatives of affected patients. Interactions between the PPARG Pro12Ala polymorphism and fatty acids on glucose metabolism were taken into consideration. This common polymorphism plays an important role in the regulation of glucose metabolism. The inverse associations observed between dietary fibre and insulin resistance are consistent with the prevailing recommendations urging increased intake of fibre to prevent T2D. Beneficial associations observed between the intake of carotenoids and glucose levels stress that a high consumption of vegetables, fruits and berries rich in carotenoids might also play a role in the prevention of T2D. Whether tocopherols have an independent association with glucose metabolism remains questionable. Observed interactions between fatty acids and glucose metabolism suggest that a high intake of palmitic acid is associated with high fasting glucose levels mainly in female Ala allele carriers. Furthermore, the PPARG Pro12Ala polymorphism may modify the metabolic response to dietary marine fat. The beneficial associations of high intake of marine n 3 fatty acids with insulin resistance and glucose levels may be restricted to carriers of the Ala allele. The findings pertain to subjects with a family history of T2D, and the cross-sectional nature of the study precludes inferences about causality. Results nevertheless show that associations of dietary factors with glucose metabolism may be modulated by the genetic makeup of an individual. Additional research is warranted to elucidate the role of probably numerous nutrient-gene interactions, some of which may be sex-specific, in the aetiology of T2D.
Resumo:
The off-site transport of agricultural chemicals, such as herbicides, into freshwater and marine ecosystems is a world-wide concern. The adoption of farm management practices that minimise herbicide transport in rainfall-runoff is a priority for the Australian sugarcane industry, particularly in the coastal catchments draining into the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon. In this study, residual herbicide runoff and infiltration were measured using a rainfall simulator in a replicated trial on a brown Chromosol with 90–100% cane trash blanket cover in the Mackay Whitsunday region, Queensland. Management treatments included conventional 1.5 m spaced sugarcane beds with a single row of sugarcane (CONV) and 2 m spaced, controlled traffic sugarcane beds with dual sugarcane rows (0.8 m apart) (2mCT). The aim was to simulate the first rainfall event after the application of the photosynthesis inhibiting (PSII) herbicides ametryn, atrazine, diuron and hexazinone, by broadcast (100% coverage, on bed and furrow) and banding (50–60% coverage, on bed only) methods. These events included heavy rainfall 1 day after herbicide application, considered a worst case scenario, or rainfall 21 days after application. The 2mCT rows had significantly (P < 0.05) less runoff (38%) and lower peak runoff rates (43%) than CONV rows for a rainfall average of 93 mm at 100 mm h−1 (1:20 yr Average Return Interval). Additionally, final infiltration rates were higher in 2mCT rows than CONV rows, with 72 and 52 mm h−1 respectively. This resulted in load reductions of 60, 55, 47, and 48% for ametryn, atrazine, diuron and hexazinone from 2mCT rows, respectively. Herbicide losses in runoff were also reduced by 32–42% when applications were banded rather than broadcast. When rainfall was experienced 1 day after application, a large percentage of herbicides were washed off the cane trash. However, by day 21, concentrations of herbicide residues on cane trash were lower and more resistant to washoff, resulting in lower losses in runoff. Consequently, ametryn and atrazine event mean concentrations in runoff were approximately 8 fold lower at day 21 compared with day 1, whilst diuron and hexazinone were only 1.6–1.9 fold lower, suggesting longer persistence of these chemicals. Runoff collected at the end of the paddock in natural rainfall events indicated consistent though smaller treatment differences to the rainfall simulation study. Overall, it was the combination of early application, banding and controlled traffic that was most effective in reducing herbicide losses in runoff. Crown copyright © 2012
Resumo:
The safety of food has become an increasingly interesting issue to consumers and the media. It has also become a source of concern, as the amount of information on the risks related to food safety continues to expand. Today, risk and safety are permanent elements within the concept of food quality. Safety, in particular, is the attribute that consumers find very difficult to assess. The literature in this study consists of three main themes: traceability; consumer behaviour related to both quality and safety issues and perception of risk; and valuation methods. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of the origin of beef, as well as attributes related to safety, environmental friendliness and animal welfare. The purpose of this study was to examine what kind of information flows are required to ensure quality and safety in the food chain for beef, and who should produce that information. Studying the willingness to pay of consumers makes it possible to determine whether the consumers consider the quantity of information available on the safety and quality of beef sufficient. One of the main findings of this study was that the majority of Finnish consumers (73%) regard increased quality information as beneficial. These benefits were assessed using the contingent valuation method. The results showed that those who were willing to pay for increased information on the quality and safety of beef would accept an average price increase of 24% per kilogram. The results showed that certain risk factors impact consumer willingness to pay. If the respondents considered genetic modification of food or foodborne zoonotic diseases as harmful or extremely harmful risk factors in food, they were more likely to be willing to pay for quality information. The results produced by the models thus confirmed the premise that certain food-related risks affect willingness to pay for beef quality information. The results also showed that safety-related quality cues are significant to the consumers. In the first place, the consumers would like to receive information on the control of zoonotic diseases that are contagious to humans. Similarly, other process-control related information ranked high among the top responses. Information on any potential genetic modification was also considered important, even though genetic modification was not regarded as a high risk factor.
Resumo:
Hendra virus is a highly pathogenic novel paramyxovirus causing sporadic fatal infection in horses and humans in Australia. Species of fruit-bats (genus Pteropus), commonly known as flying-foxes, are the natural host of the virus. We undertook a survey of horse owners in the states of Queensland and New South Wales, Australia to assess the level of adoption of recommended risk management strategies and to identify impediments to adoption. Survey questionnaires were completed by 1431 respondents from the target states, and from a spectrum of industry sectors. Hendra virus knowledge varied with sector, but was generally limited, with only 13% of respondents rating their level of knowledge as high or very high. The majority of respondents (63%) had seen their state’s Hendra virus information for horse owners, and a similar proportion found the information useful. Fifty-six percent of respondents thought it moderately, very or extremely likely that a Hendra virus case could occur in their area, yet only 37% said they would consider Hendra virus if their horse was sick. Only 13% of respondents stabled their horses overnight, although another 24% said it would be easy or very easy to do so, but hadn’t done so. Only 13% and 15% of respondents respectively had horse feed bins and water points under solid cover. Responses varied significantly with state, likely reflecting different Hendra virus history. The survey identified inconsistent awareness and/or adoption of available knowledge, confusion in relation to Hendra virus risk perception, with both over-and under-estimation of true risk, and lag in the uptake of recommended risk minimisation strategies, even when these were readily implementable. However, we also identified frustration and potential alienation by horse owners who found the recommended strategies impractical, onerous and prohibitively expensive. The insights gained from this survey have broader application to other complex risk-management scenarios.
Resumo:
In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.
Resumo:
For many years Australian forest pathologists and other scientists have dreaded the arrival of the rust fungus, Puccinia psidii, commonly known as Myrtle Rust, in Australia. This pathogen eventually did arrive in that country and was first detected in New South Wales in 2010 on Willow Myrtle (Agonis flexuosa). It is generally accepted that it entered the country on an ornamental Myrtales* host brought in by a private nursery. Despite efforts to eradicate the invasive rust, it has already spread widely, now occurring along the east coast of Australia, from temperate areas in Victoria and southern North South Wales to tropical areas in north Queensland.
Resumo:
Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.
Resumo:
While Aldi’s launch of their new “trial” stores may seem to be an attempt to capture middle income shoppers, it may end in disaster. Aldi’s four new trial stores located in Queensland, NSW, ACT and Victoria, will offer improved lighting, larger layouts and an expanded offering of fresh food including extending produce ranges, in-house bakeries and premium brands. Employing Nielsen’s 2014 Homescan Report, Aldi have determined that only 30% of their customers were now considered “low-income shoppers”. Some 34.4% were from middle-income households and the remaining 35.6% now had household incomes greater than AUD$90,000 a year - a segment which has grown by 6.7% since 2011. So this probably the reason for Aldi’s foray into new stores and ranges. However, such a move is considered risky.
Resumo:
The research project developed a quantitative approach to assess the risk to human health from heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban stormwater based on traffic and land use factors. The research outcomes are expected to strengthen the scientifically robust management and reuse of urban stormwater. The innovative methodology developed can be applied to evaluate human health risk in relation to toxic chemical pollutants in urban stormwater runoff and for the development of effective risk mitigation strategies.
Resumo:
Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.
Resumo:
Background and Aim The etiology of Crohn's disease (CD) implicates both genetic and environmental factors. Smoking behavior is one environmental risk factor to play a role in the development of CD. The study aimed to assess the contribution of the interleukin 23 receptor (IL23R) in determining disease susceptibility in two independent cohorts of CD, and to investigate the interactions between IL23R variants, smoking behavior, and CD-associated genes, NOD2 and ATG16L1. Methods Ten IL23R single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 675 CD cases, and 1255 controls from Brisbane, Australia (dataset 1). Six of these SNPs were genotyped in 318 CD cases and 533 controls from Canterbury, New Zealand (dataset 2). Case–control analysis of genotype and allele frequencies, and haplotype analysis for all SNPs was conducted. Results We demonstrate a strong increased CD risk for smokers in both datasets (odds ratio 3.77, 95% confidence interval 2.88–4.94), and an additive interaction between IL23R SNPs and cigarette smoking. Ileal involvement was a consistent marker of strong SNP–CD association (P ≤ 0.001), while the lowest minor allele frequencies for location were found in those with colonic CD (L2). Three haplotype blocks were identified across the 10 IL23R SNPs conferring different risk of CD. Haplotypes conferred no further risk of CD when compared with single SNP analyses. Conclusion IL23R gene variants determine CD susceptibility in the Australian and New Zealand population, particularly ileal CD. A strong additive interaction exists between IL23R SNPs and smoking behavior resulting in a dramatic increase in disease risk depending upon specific genetic background.
Resumo:
The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.