The role of qualitative data and systems thinking in addressing service decline in market towns

Retail services are a main contributor to municipal budget and are an activity that affects perceived quality-of-life, especially for those with mobility difficulties (e.g. the elderly, low income citizens). However, there is evidence of a decline in some of the services market towns provide to their citizens. In market towns, this decline has been reported all over the western world, from North America to Australia. The aim of this research was to understand retail decline and enlighten on some ways of addressing this decline, using a case study, Thornbury, a small town in the Southwest of England. Data collected came from two participatory approaches: photo-surveys and multicriteria mapping. The interpretation of data came from using participants as analysts, but also, using systems thinking (systems diagramming and social trap theory) for theory building. This research moves away from mainstream economic and town planning perspectives by making use of different methods and concepts used in anthropology and visual sociology (photo-surveys), decision-making and ecological economics (multicriteria mapping and social trap theory). In sum, this research has experimented with different methods, out of their context, to analyse retail decline in a small town. This research developed a conceptual model for retail decline and identified the existence of conflicting goals and interests and their implications for retail decline, as well as causes for these. Most of the potential causes have had little attention in the literature. This research also identified that some of the measures commonly used for dealing with retail decline may be contributing to the causes of retail decline itself. Additionally, this research reviewed some of the measures that can be used to deal with retail decline, implications for policy-making and reflected on the use of the data collection and analysis methods in the context of small to medium towns.

Adesão terapêutica e hipertensão arterial : o uso de fontes administrativas de dados de prescrição e levantamento de medicação na estimação da adesão à terapêutica com antagonistas dos recetores da angiotensina

RESUMO - Objetivos: São objetivos do presente estudo caraterizar a adesão terapêutica, primária e secundária, na Região de Saúde do Alentejo em utentes que seguiram tratamento para Hipertensão Arterial com Antagonistas dos Receptores da Angiotensina e constatar se a adopção de diferentes medidas produz diferentes resultados de adesão terapêutica. Metodologia: Este estudo é uma análise retrospetiva da prescrição e levantamento de ARA nos anos de 2010 e 2011 na Região de Saúde do Alentejo. Foram considerados 22.450 utentes e cinco diferentes medidas de adesão terapêutica: Rácio de Adesão Primária, Medication Possession Ratio, Compliance Rate, Refill Compliance Rate, Continuous Measure of Medication Gaps. Resultados: Constatou-se que a adesão terapêutica primária para os 22.450 utentes considerados na amostra foi de 0,612 (DP 0,325), a adesão terapêutica medida pelo indicador MPR foi de 0,557 (DP 0,380), pelo indicador CR foi de 0,697 (DP 0,517), pelo indicador RCR foi de 0,695 (DP 0,518) e pelo indicador CMG foi de 0,648 (DP 0,351). Independentemente do indicador considerado, a adesão terapêutica foi mais elevada no sexo feminino do que no sexo masculino, os utentes do sexo feminino apresentaram níveis de sobre-aquisição de medicação mais elevados e a prevalência de utentes que no período não chegaram a levantar nenhuma embalagem de medicação, não obstante a necessidade clínica ter sido identificada em pelo menos 2 momentos no período, foi mais elevada no sexo masculino. As faixas etárias acima dos 70 anos apresentaram níveis médios de adesão terapêutica significativamente superiores aos verificados nas faixas etárias que compreendem os utentes em idade ativa. Constatou-se que os concelhos que apresentaram resultados de adesão terapêutica inferiores à média amostral por um determinado indicador, em regra, viram confirmada essa tendência pelos restantes indicadores. Não obstante, verificou-se que os rankings de desempenho obtidos pelos cinco indicadores apresentaram concordância estatística fraca. Conclusões: Concluiu-se que, não obstante a existência de um conjunto de limitações e condicionalismos metodológicos, os dados atualmente recolhidos ao nível da prescrição e conferência de receituário permitem a mensuração dos comportamentos de adesão terapêutica. A inexistência de consenso científico terminológico tem conduzido à proliferação de indicadores com o fito de medir a adesão terapêutica que, sendo conceptualmente distintos na sua construção, conduzem a diferentes resultados de adesão terapêutica. Os resultados obtidos pelo presente estudo permitiram confirmar este aspecto pelo que não se recomenda a utilização de apenas um indicador para análise dos comportamentos de adesão terapêutica dos utentes.

Molecular detection of Treponema pallidum sp. pallidum in blood samples of VDRL-seroreactive women with lethal pregnancy outcomes: a retrospective observational study in northern Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Although control measures of maternal and congenital syphilis are available in Brazil, difficulties exist within the healthcare network in providing a laboratory diagnosis of the infection during the prenatal period. The objective of this study was to confirm the presence of Treponema pallidum by PCR in women with positive VDRL serology and lethal pregnancy outcomes, i.e., abortion, stillbirth and neonatal death. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on VDRLseroreactive women with lethal pregnancy outcomes admitted to the Fundação Santa Casa de Misericórdia do Pará (FSCM-PA) between January and July 2004. Serum samples and DNA from whole blood were obtained at the time of screening by the VDRL test. These samples were analyzed by IgG ELISA, IgM FTA-Abs and simple PCR (polA). RESULTS: During the study period, 0.7% (36/4,912) of women with lethal pregnancy outcomes presented a positive VDRL test. The polAgene was amplified in 72.7% (24/33) of these women, with 55.6% (20/36) and 94.4% (34/36) presenting IgM and IgG antibodies against T. pallidum, respectively. Comparison of these results showed a significant difference, with agreement between the PCR and IgM FTA-Abs results, suggesting that maternal syphilis was an active infection. No basic cause of death of the conceptus was reported in 97.2% (35/36) of cases. Among women who were submitted to the VDRL test during the prenatal period, only four of the nine seroreactive patients underwent treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The high frequency of syphilis in the group studied indicates the fragility of the service of infection diagnosis, treatment and monitoring, compromising epidemiological control.

Enteric parasites in HIV-1/AIDS-infected patients from a Northwestern São Paulo reference unit in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era

INTRODUCTION: We describe the epidemiology of intestinal parasites in patients from an AIDS reference service in Northeastern São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Retrospective evaluation was done for all HIV-1/AIDS-positive patients whose Hospital de Base/São José do Rio Preto laboratorial analysis was positive for enteroparasites after diagnosis of HIV-1 infection, from January 1998 to December 2008. Statistical analysis was performed using the R statistical software version 2.4.1. The level of significance adopted was 5%. RESULTS: The most frequent protozoan was Isospora belli (4.2%), followed by Giardia lamblia (3.5%), Entamoeba coli (2.8%), and Cryptosporidium parvum (0.3%). Ancylostoma duodenale (1.4%) was the most frequently detected helminth, while Taenia saginata and Strongiloides stercoralis were found in 0.7% of the samples. The results showed that diarrhea was significantly associated with giardiasis and isosporiasis. However, no association was observed between CD4+ cell counts, viral load, and the characteristics of any particular parasite. CONCLUSIONS: Our data may be useful for further comparisons with other Brazilian regions and other developing countries. The data may also provide important clues toward improving the understanding, prevention, and control of enteric parasites around the world.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Interpretation of the presence of IgM and IgG antibodies in a rapid test for dengue: analysis of dengue antibody prevalence in Fortaleza City in the 20th year of the epidemic

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis of dengue and the differentiation between primary and secondary infections are important for monitoring the spread of the epidemic and identifying the risk of severe forms of the disease. The detection of immunoglobulin (Ig)M and IgG antibodies is the main technique for the laboratory diagnosis of dengue. The present study assessed the application of a rapid test for dengue concerning detection of new cases, reinfection recognition, and estimation of the epidemic attack rate. METHODS: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional, descriptive study on dengue using the Fortaleza Health Municipal Department database. The results from 1,530 tested samples, from 2005-2006, were compared with data from epidemiological studies of dengue outbreaks in 1996, 2003, and 2010. RESULTS: The rapid test confirmed 52% recent infections in the tested patients with clinical suspicion of dengue: 40% detected using IgM and 12% of new cases using IgG in the non-reactive IgM results. The positive IgM plus negative IgG (IgM+ plus IgG-) results showed that 38% of those patients had a recent primary dengue infection, while the positive IgG plus either positive or negative IgM (IgG+ plus IgM+/-) results indicated that 62% had dengue for at least a second time (recent secondary infections). This proportion of reinfections permitted us to estimate the attack rate as >62% of the population sample. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid test for dengue has enhanced our ability to detect new infections and to characterize them into primary and secondary infections, permitting the estimation of the minimal attack rate for a population during an outbreak.

Relationship between national culture, democracy and environmental performance: A panel data analysis

This paper demonstrates the significance of culture in examining the relationshipbetween democratic capital and environmental performance.The aim is to examine the relationship among scores on the Environmental Performance Index and the two dimensions of cross cultural variation suggested by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Significantional interrelationships among democracy, cultural and environmental sustaintability measures could be found, following the regression results. Firstly, higher levels of democratic capital stock are associated with better environmental performance. Secondly importance to distinguish between cultural groups could be confirmed.

Epidemiological profile of meningococcal disease in the State of Minas Gerais and in the Central, North, and Triângulo Mineiro regions, Brazil, during 2000-2009

INTRODUCTION: Infection by Neisseria meningitidis, termed as meningococcal disease, can cause meningococcal meningitis and septicemia with or without meningitis. Meningococcal disease is endemic in Brazil and has a high potential to cause large-scale epidemics; therefore, it requires the immediate notification of cases to the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN) in Brazil. The aim of this study was to describe an epidemiological profile using data from notified and confirmed cases in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, from January 2000 to December 2009, obtained from the investigation records of individuals with meningitis registered with SINAN. METHODS: This was a retrospective, population-based study. Descriptive analysis of the data was made using the simple and relative frequencies of the categorical variables in the investigation records. RESULTS: There were 1,688 confirmed patients in Minas Gerais of which 45.5% lived in the Central, North, and Triângulo Mineiro regions. The highest frequencies of cases were in the 1-4-years age group (26.3%), males (54.7%), caucasian (36.4%), and lived in an urban area (80%). In the patients with specified education, 650 (60.9%) patients had secondary education. Serogrouping of meningococci had been performed in 500 (29.6%) patients by age and gender; 285 (57%) belonged to serogroup C, 67 (13.4%) were in the 1-to 4-years age group, and 168 (33.6%) were male. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological profiles of patients in the Central, North, and Triângulo Mineiro regions were not significantly different from the profile of patients in Minas Gerais.

A method to correct the flow distortion of offshore wind data using CFD simulation and experimental wind tunnel tests

The assessment of wind energy resource for the development of deep offshore wind plants requires the use of every possible source of data and, in many cases, includes data gathered at meteorological stations installed at islands, islets or even oil platforms—all structures that interfere with, and change, the flow characteristics. This work aims to contribute to the evaluation of such changes in the flow by developing a correction methodology and applying it to the case of Berlenga island, Portugal. The study is performed using computational fluid dynamic simulations (CFD) validated by wind tunnel tests. In order to simulate the incoming offshore flow with CFD models a wind profile, unknown a priori, was established using observations from two coastal wind stations and a power law wind profile was fitted to the existing data (a=0.165). The results show that the resulting horizontal wind speed at 80 m above sea level is 16% lower than the wind speed at 80 m above the island for the dominant wind direction sector.

A retrospective serologic survey of hantavirus infections in the county of Cássia dos Coqueiros, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, hantavirus infections producing severe diseases have obtained an increased attention from public health authorities from the countries of Eurasia to the Americas. Brazil has reported 1,300 cases of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) from 1993 to 2010, with about 80 of them occurring in the northeast of the State of São Paulo, with 48% fatality rate. Araraquara virus was the causative agent of HCPS in the region. Considering that hantaviruses causing human disease in the Americas were unknown until 1993, we have looked for hantavirus infections in the population of Cássia dos Coqueiros county, northeast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, before this time. This county has about 2,800 inhabitants and an economy based on agriculture, including cultivation of Brachiaria decumbens grass. The grass seeds are an important rodent attraction, facilitating transmission of hantavirus to man. Four HCPS cases were reported so far in the county. METHODS: In this study, 1,876 sera collected from 1987 to 1990 were tested for IgG to hantavirus by IgG-ELISA, using the N recombinant protein of Araraquara virus as antigen. RESULTS: Positive results were observed in 89 (4.7%) samples, which were all collected in 1987. The positivity among urban inhabitants was 5.3%, compared with 4.3% among those living in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that hantavirus infections occurred in Cássia dos Coqueiros, completely unrecognized, even before hantaviruses were described in the Americas.

Indicadores de prognóstico em utentes com disfunção do ombro submetidos a uma intervenção terapêutica direcionada para a estabilidade dinâmica da escápulo-torácica

RESUMO: Introdução/ Objetivo: Segundo a revisão sistemática de Chester e colaboradores (2013b)apenas dois fatores de prognóstico demonstraram uma associação consistente com o resultado que foram a duração dos sintomas e a funcionalidade na avaliação inicial. O objetivo do estudo é identificar indicadores de bom e mau prognóstico em utentes com disfunção do complexo articular do ombro (DCAO), tendo por base, aspetos da avaliação inicial do utente e critérios de alta de abolição da dor, aumento da funcionalidade e da estabilidade dinâmica considerando uma intervenção terapêutica direcionada para o aumento da estabilidade dinâmica da escápulo-torácica. Metodologia: Efetuou-se um estudo de coorte clínico retrospetivo. Para tal, aplicou-se um protocolo de intervenção terapêutica e analisou-se os resultados. A amostra foi constituída por 82 indivíduos com DCAO [53 com síndrome do conflito subacromial (SCSA) e 29 com instabilidade da glenoumeral (IGU)], residentes nos distritos de Lisboa, Setúbal e Santarém com o intuito de iniciar tratamento de fisioterapia. A análise dos dados foi efetuada tendo em consideração dois procedimentos: análise univariada (através do método de Kaplan-Meier para cada CVP) e análise multifatorial (pela análise de regressão de Cox e regressão logística nos grupos de utentes com SCSA, IGU e DCAO). Resultados: O tempo mediano de continuação no tratamento em fisioterapia foi de 7 semanas para os utentes com SCSA e 6 semanas para utentes com IGU. Segundo o teste de Logrank, na análise univariada, existem sete e oito covariáveis preditoras (CVP) com associação estatisticamente significativa (p<0,05) para o subgrupo SCSA e IGU, respectivamente. De acordo com estes resultados, a primeira parte da DASH e a SPADI são as únicas CVP com associação comuns às duas disfunções. Pela análise multifatorial e, em congruência com o teste de Wald, nenhuma das CVP contribui estatisticamente para o modelo preditivo de continuidade do tratamento de fisioterapia em qualquer um dos três modelos estudados: subgrupo SCSA, subgrupo IGU e utentes com DCAO. Conclusão: Por uma análise univariada verificou-se que existem CVP associadas à alta dos tratamentos em fisioterapia e estas não são as mesmas em ambas as DCAO. Contudo, a magnitude do efeito de cada CVP nos modelos multifatoriais definidos para os grupos de utentes com SCSA, IGU e DCAO não demonstraram valor estatisticamente significativo pelo que não foi possível determinar modelos de prognóstico em utentes com DCAO.-------------ABSTRACT: Background/ Purpose: According with the systematic review from Chester and collaborators (2013b) just two prognostic factors demonstrated a consistent association with the outcome: the duration of symptoms and functionality in the initial assessment. The purpose of the study is to identify indicators of good and poor prognosis in patients with shoulder’s dysfunctions, based on aspects of the initial assessment and discharge criteria of absence of pain, increased functionality and dynamic stability considering a therapeutic intervention used to increase the dynamic stability of scapulo-thoracic. Methodology: It was conducted a retrospective study of clinical cohort. For this purpose it was applied a protocol with therapeutic intervention and the results were analyzed. The sample consisted of 82 individuals with shoulder’s dysfunction (53 with subacromial impingement (SIMP) and 29 with shoulder instability (SINS) residing in the districts of Lisbon, Setúbal and Santarém in order to start physiotherapy. Data analysis was performed taking into account two procedures: univariate analysis [using the Kaplan-Meier method for each co-variant predictor variable (CVP)] and multifactorial analysis [analysis by Cox regression and logistic regression on groups of patients with SIMP, SINS and shoulder’s dysfunction (SD)]. Results: The median time of follow-up treatment at physical therapy was 7 weeks for patients with SIMP and 6 weeks for patients with SINS. According to the Logrank test in the univariate analysis, there are seven and eight CVP with a statistically significant association (p<0.05) for the patients with SIMP and SINS, respectively. According to these results, the first part of the DASH and SPADI are the only CVP common to both disorders association. By multifatorial analyses, and in agreement with the Wald test, none of the CVP contributes statistically to the predictive model of continuity of physiotherapy treatment in any of the three studied models: patients with SIMP, patients with SINS and patients with SD. Conclusion: In an univariate analysis, it was verified that there are CVP associated with discharge from treatments of physical therapy and these are not the same in both SD. However, the magnitude of effect of each CVP in multifactorial models for defined patients groups with SIMP, SINS and SD showed no statistically significant. Therefore, it was not possible to determine prognostic models for patients with SD.

The influence of menopausal status on bone turnover and disease control in breast cancer patients with metastatic bone disease treated with chemotherapy plus zoledronic acid : an exploratory retrospective cohort study

RESUMO: Introdução: Uma meta-análise recente demonstrou que uso adjuvante de ácido zoledrónico (AZ) em mulheres pós-menopáusicas com cancro da mama precoce (CM) conduz a redução do risco de morte por CM em 17%. Investigámos o efeito do estado hormonal (pré [PrM] vs pós-menopausa tardia [PoM]) na remodelação óssea e controlo de doença em mulheres com CM e metástases ósseas (MO) tratadas com AZ e quimioterapia (QT). Métodos: Neste estudo de coorte retrospetivo, colhemos variáveis clinico-patológicas e quantificámos o telopéptido N-terminal (NTX) urinário e marcadores tumorais (MT) séricos em mulheres com CM e MO tratadas com QT e AZ. As doentes foram divididas em PrM (<45 anos) e PoM (>60 anos). Endpoints do estudo: variação do NTX, CA15.3 e CEA nos meses 3, 6 e 9, tempo até falência de QT de primeira-linha e sobrevivência. Quando apropriado foram usados os testes de Wilcoxon rank-sum, modelo de efeitos lineares mistos, teste log-rank e modelo de Cox. Resultados: Quarenta doentes foram elegíveis para análise (8 PrM e 32 PoM). Depois da introdução de AZ e QT, os níveis de NTX e MT caíram no coorte global. O perfil de resposta não diferiu entre grupos no mês 3 ou em tempos posteriores (valor-p para interação tempo-estado hormonal no mês 3=0.957). Ademais, o perfil de resposta dos MT também não diferiu entre grupos. O tempo mediano até falência de primeira-linha de QT em PrM e PoM foi de 15.2 e 17.4 meses, respetivamente. Não foi identificada diferença significativa entre grupos, quer em análise univariada quer após controlo para envolvimento visceral (p=0.399 e 0.469, respetivamente). Igualmente, não houve diferenças em termos de sobrevivência. Conclusões: Neste coorte, não foram identificadas diferenças no controlo de NTX ou MT em função do estado menopausico. Igualmente, não foi identificada diferença no tempo até falência de primeira-linha de CT ou sobrevivência.----------- ABSTRACT: Background: A recent meta-analysis showed that the adjuvant use of zoledronic acid (ZA) in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer (BC) leads to a reduction in the risk of breast cancer death by 17%. We investigated the effect of the hormonal status (pre [PrM] vs late post menopause [PoM]) on bone turnover and disease control among women with BC and boné metastases (BM) treated with ZA and chemotherapy (CT). Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we collected clinicopathologic variables, urinary Nterminal telopeptide (NTX) and serum tumor marker levels from women with BC and BM treated with CT and ZA. Patients were divided in PrM (<45 years) and PoM (>60 years). Study endpoints were NTX, CA15.3 and CEA variation at 3, 6 and 9 months, and time to first-line CT failure and survival. We performed multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models to assess the variation of repeated measures and cox regression models for time to event outcomes. Results: Forty patients were eligible for analysis (8 PrM and 32 PoM). After introduction of ZA and CT, NTX and tumor markers declined in the overall cohort. Response profile was similar between menopausal groups at month 3 and at later time points (p-value for time-hormonal status interaction at month 3=0.957). Furthermore, tumor markers response profile was also equal between groups. Median time to first-line CT failure in PrM and PoM women was 15.2 and 17.4 months, respectively. No significant difference between groups was found, either using a univariate analysis or after controlling for visceral disease involvement (p=0.399 and 0.469, respectively). Likewise, no differences in survival were found. Conclusions: In this cohort, no differences were found in terms of NTX or tumor markers control according to menopausal status. Similarly, no difference in time to first-line CT failure or survival was found.

Concordance between expected and observed bacilloscopy results of clinical forms of leprosy: a 6-year retrospective study in Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Operational classification of leprosy based on the number of skin lesions was conceived to screen patients presenting severe forms of the disease to enable their reception of a more intense multidrug regimen without having to undergo lymph smear testing. We evaluated the concordance between operational classification and bacilloscopy to define multibacillary and paucibacillary leprosy. METHODS: We selected 1,213 records of individuals with leprosy, who were untreated (new cases) and admitted to a dermatology clinic in Recife, Brazil, from 2000 to 2005, and who underwent bacteriological examination at diagnosis for ratification of the operational classification. RESULTS: Compared to bacilloscopy, operational classification demonstrated 88.6% sensitivity, 76.9% specificity, a positive predictive value of 61.8%, and a negative predictive value of 94.1%, with 80% accuracy and a moderate kappa index. Among the bacilloscopy-negative cases, 23% had more than 5 skin lesions. Additionally, 11% of the bacilloscopy-positive cases had up to 5 lesions, which would have led to multibacillary cases being treated as paucibacillary leprosy if the operational classification had not been confirmed by bacilloscopy. CONCLUSIONS: Operational classification has limitations that are more obvious in borderline cases, suggesting that in these cases, lymph smear testing is advisable to enable the selection of true multibacillary cases for more intense treatment, thereby contributing to minimization of resistant strain selection and possible relapse.

Evaluation of preventive measures for mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Aracaju, State of Sergipe, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The main route of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in children is from mother to child. The preventive measures established for the Aids Clinical Trial Group protocol 076 (ACTG 076) significantly reduces HIV vertical transmission rates. This study aims to evaluate the implementation of the ACTG 076 protocol in the maternity units of State of Sergipe, Brazilian northeast. METHODS: This is a descriptive, retrospective study with a quantitative approach, with HIV positive women and children exposed, attending a Maternity reference for high-risk pregnancies. Data were obtained from patient records registered in the years 1994 to 2010. RESULTS: Amongst the 110 pregnant women and exposed newborns, the ACTG 076 protocol was fully utilized in only 31.8% of the participants. During the prenatal period, zidovudine (ZDV) was taken by 79.1% of the pregnant women. Only 49.1% of HIV seropositive patients used ZDV during delivery. Two (1.8%) children were considered infected and 50 (45.5%) do not have a conclusive diagnosis to date. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant deficiencies in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, including lack of compliance with the three phases of the ACTG 076 protocol; inadequacies in prenatal care; inappropriate mode of delivery and lack of adequate follow up of exposed children.

Factors of poor prognosis of visceral leishmaniasis among children under 12 years of age. A retrospective monocentric study in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2001-2005

INTRODUTION: A major concern with the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is its high lethality rate, even with proper treatment. Low age, prior malnutrition, disease duration prior to diagnosis, severe anemia, fever for more than 60 days, diarrhea and jaundice are known poor prognostic factors. The goals of this study are to describe the clinical and laboratory characteristics of VL among children under 12 years of age and to identify the factors associated with VL poor outcome. METHODS: Two hundred and fifty children under 12 years of age with confirmed VL admitted to Hospital João Paulo II (FHEMIG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil, between January 2001 and December 2005 were evaluated retrospectively. The primary outcome was the poor clinical evolution: sepsis, and/or pneumonia, and/or urinary tract infection, and/or of bleeding (expect epistaxis), and/or severe neutropenia (neutrophil < 500 cells/mm3). Odds ratio (crude and adjusted) and its 95% confidence interval for each variable were calculated. Values less than 0.05 were considered significant. RESULTS: Average age was 3.3 years (3.6 months-11.6 years), 71.2% were younger than 5 years and 47.2% lived in Metropolitan Area of Belo Horizonte. The mean fatality rate was 3.6%. Sixty-six (26.4%) patients presented poor evolution. After a multivariate analysis, age <18 months, abnormal respiratory physical examination on hospital admission, and platelets <85,000/mm3 remained associated with increased chance of poor evolution. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that patients aged between 12 and 18 months, with platelet counts bellow 85,000/mm3, and respiratory abnormalities at admission should be considered potentially severe.