A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting

In this paper, I provide a formal justi…cation for a well-established coattail effect, when a popular candidate at one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. A political agency frame- work with moral hazard is applied to analyze coattails in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is a natural outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or congressman) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or different parties. The two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, the executive's suc- cess/failure props up/drags down her partisan ally in congressional election, which implies presidential coattails. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by the congressman's performance, which results in reverse coattails. JEL classi…fication: D72, D86. Keywords: Coattail voting; Presidential coattails; Reverse coattails; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.

Repeated Interaction and the Revelation of the Monitor's Type: A Principal-Monitor-Agent Problem

This paper studies a dynamic principal-monitor-agent relation where a strategic principal delegates the task of monitoring the effort of a strategic agent to a third party. The latter we call the monitor, whose type is initially unknown. Through repeated interaction the agent might learn his type. We show that this process damages the principal's payoffs. Compensation is assumed exogenous, limiting to a great extent the provision of incentives. We go around this difficulty by introducing costly replacement strategies, i.e. the principal replaces the monitor, thus disrupting the agent's learning. We found that even when replacement costs are null, if the revealed monitor is strictly preferred by both parties, there is a loss in efficiency due to the impossibility of bene…tting from it. Nonetheless, these strategies can partially recover the principal's losses. Additionally, we establish upper and lower bounds on the payoffs that the principal and the agent can achieve. Finally we characterize the equilibrium strategies under public and private monitoring (with communication) for different cost and impatience levels.

Primaries the unifying force

We present a formal model of intra-party politics to explain candidate selection within parties. We think of parties as heterogeneous groups of individuals who aim to implement a set of policies but who differ in their priorities. When party heterogeneity is too large, parties are in danger of splitting into smaller yet more homogeneous groups. In this context we argue that primaries can have a unifying role if the party elite cannot commit to policy concessions. Our model shows how alignment in the preferred policies of various factions within a party, the relative weight of each of these factions and the electoral system interact to create incentives for the adoption of primary elections. We discuss the existing empirical literature in the light of our theoretical predictions to provide a new, structured perspective on the adoption of primary elections.

Simultaneous Nash bargaining with consistent beliefs

We propose and analyze a new solution concept, the R solution, for three-person, transferable utility, cooperative games. In the spirit of the Nash Bargaining Solution, our concept is founded on the predicted outcomes of simultaneous, two-party negotiations that would be the alternative to the grand coalition. These possibly probabilistic predictions are based on consistent beliefs. We analyze the properties of the R solution and compare it with the Shapley value and other concepts. The R solution exists and is unique. It belongs to the bargaining set and to the core whenever the latter is not empty. In fact, when the grand coalition can simply execute one of the three possible bilateral trades, the R solution is the most egalitarian selection of the bargaining set. Finally, we discuss how the R solution changes important conclusions of several well known Industrial Organization models.

Value of allogeneic versus autologous stem cell transplantation and chemotherapy in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia. Final results of a prospective randomized European Intergroup Trial.

BACKGROUND: Allogeneic stem cell transplantation is usually considered the only curative treatment option for patients with advanced or transformed myelodysplastic syndromes in complete remission, but post-remission chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation are potential alternatives, especially in patients over 45 years old. DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated, after intensive anti-leukemic remission-induction chemotherapy, the impact of the availability of an HLA-identical sibling donor on an intention-to treat basis. Additionally, all patients without a sibling donor in complete remission after the first consolidation course were randomized to either autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation or a second consolidation course consisting of high-dose cytarabine. RESULTS: The 4-year survival of the 341 evaluable patients was 28%. After achieving complete remission, the 4-year survival rates of patients under 55 years old with or without a donor were 54% and 41%, respectively, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.49-1.35) for survival and of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.42-1.06) for disease-free survival. In patients with intermediate/high risk cytogenetic abnormalities the hazard ratio in multivariate analysis was 0.58 (99% CI, 0.22-1.50) (P=0.14) for survival and 0.46 (99% CI, 0.22-1.50) for disease-free survival (P=0.03). In contrast, in patients with low risk cytogenetic characteristics the hazard ratio for survival was 1.17 (99% CI, 0.40-3.42) and that for disease-free survival was 1.02 (99% CI, 0.40-2.56). The 4-year survival of the 65 patients randomized to autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation or a second consolidation course of high-dose cytarabine was 37% and 27%, respectively. The hazard ratio in multivariate analysis was 1.22 (95% CI, 0.65-2.27) for survival and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.56-1.85) for disease-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a donor and candidates for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in first complete remission may have a better disease-free survival than those without a donor in case of myelodysplastic syndromes with intermediate/high-risk cytogenetics. Autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation does not provide longer survival than intensive chemotherapy.

Questions et réponses sur l'utilisation du rivaroxaban (Xarelto) dans la pratique [Questions and answers regarding the use of rivaroxaban in daily practice].

Several new oral anticoagulants are now on the Swiss market and the general practitioner faces new challenges regarding the management of these new drugs. This consensus document aims to answer to the most frequently asked questions regarding rivaroxaban and covers different topics such as indications, initiation of treatment, drug-drug interactions and perioperative management.

Translating and analysing songs: three songs in the context of communist Romania

Songs were the means used by the Romanian Communist Party to ‘educate’ Romanians. Through them, Romanians were told what they had to appreciate, how grateful they were supposed to be to the regime, how great President Ceausescu was and how they had to work harder and harder so that they could be even better Communists. This paper comprises the translation of three songs composed, performed and broadcast in Communist Romania and their analysis from the point of view of communication. In translating the song, I have chosen to translate closest to the original possible meaning and meanwhile to respect to the best of my ability Low’s ‘pentathlon principle’: singability, rhyme, rhythm, naturalness and fidelity to the sense of the source text

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

Political Competition in Hard Times

This paper analyzes a spatial model of political competition between two policy- motivated parties in hard times of crisis. Hard times are modeled in terms of policy- making costs carried by a newly elected party. The results predict policy divergence in equilibrium. If the ideological preferences of parties are quite diverse and extreme, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce symmetric platforms and each party wins with probability one half. If one party is extreme while the other is more moderate, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce asymmetric platforms. If the preferred policies of the parties are not very distinct, there are two equilibria with asymmetric platforms. An important property of equilibrium with asymmetric platforms is that a winning party necessarily announces its most preferred policy as a platform. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: Spatial model; Political competition; Two-party system; Policy-motivated parties; Hard times; Crisis.

Does VAA popularity pay off ? : Smartvote users preferred candidates and their results in the 2007 Swiss federal elections

Voting is fundamental for democracy, however, this decisive democratic act requires quite an effort. Decision making at elections depends largely on the interest to gather information about candidates and parties, the effort to process the information at hand and the motivation to reach a vote choice. Especially in electoral systems with highly fragmented party systems and hundreds of candidates running for office, the process of decision making in the pre‐election sphere is highly demanding. In the age of information and communication technologies, new possibilities for gathering and processing such information are available. Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) provide guidance to voters prior to the act of voting and assist voters in choosing between different candidates and parties on the basis of issue congruence. Meanwhile widely used all over the world, scientific inquiry into the effect of such tools on electoral behavior is ongoing. This paper adds to the current debate by focusing on whether the popularity of candidates on the Swiss VAA smartvote eventually paid off at the 2007 Swiss federal elections and whether there is a direct link between the performance of a candidate on the tool and his or her electoral performance.

Identification of an expanded population of activated CD4(+) CD25(+) T cells expressing CD45RO and IL-7R in kidney transplant recipients

Recent studies have shown that CD4+ CD25+ T cells belong to two functionally different T lymphocytes, i.e. regulatory T cells (Treg) or activated T cells (Tact), which can be distinguished based on the expression of CD45RO and IL-7R: Treg (FoxP3+) are CD45RO+ IL-7R- , whereas Tact (FoxP3- ) are CD45RO+ IL- 7R+. In order to determine if a CD4+ CD25+ CD45RO+ IL-7R+ activated T cell population might be identified in kidney transplant recipients, we studied 27 healthy subjects (HS) and 23 kidney recipients, of whom 17 had stable graft function under standard immunosuppression (IS), 5 had biopsy-proven chronic humoral rejection (CHR), and one was a stable "tolerant" patient who had discontinued IS for more than 2 years. Phenotypical analysis by flow cytometry and functional assays by MLR were performed. Overall, the Tact population was found to be significantly increased in 87% of the transplant recipients (mean: 18.8±10.1% of CD4+ CD25+ T cells) compared to HS (mean: 4.5±2.0%; P<0.0001). In the 5 patients with CHR, this Tact population was highly expanded (31.3±9.3%; P<0.0001), whereas it was comparable to HS in the "tolerant" recipient (4.7%). Intermediate levels (16.0±6.9%; P<0.0001) were found in the 17 stable recipients. In CHR, the proliferative capacity of the Tact population was found to be 5-fold higher when stimulated by irradiated donor PBMC as compared to a stimulation by irradiated 3rd party PBMC. After kidney transplantation, an expanded circulating CD4+ CD25+ T cell population characterized by the expression of CD45RO and IL-7R was found in most recipients, particularly in those with CHR. In a patient with long-term operational tolerance, this Tact population was similar to HS. Measuring circulating Tact may become a useful monitoring tool after transplantation.

Plataforma para la búsqueda de talento usando programario libre y web 2.0

El objetivo de este proyecto es el de crear una plataforma para conectar a empresas con la necesidad de cubrir puestos de trabajo muy concretos con los mejores candidatos. Más allá del proyecto descrito en este documento, se pretende crear una empresa integradora de servicios de terceros tanto para empresas como para candidatos. Este proyecto se centra en el desarrollo de una plataforma Web basada en programario libre. La plataforma gira entorno a un portal que integra servicios de búsqueda de candidatos, reclutamiento y selección de personal. El portal utilizará la Web 2.0 y las redes sociales para llevar a cabo su cometido. El portal está disponible en http://www.sntalent.com.

Report of the Department of Health Cervical Screening Committee

The Working Party was appointed as a committee of experts by the then Minister of Health, Dr John Oâ?TConnell T.D., in October, 1992 to review cervical screening with the following terms of reference: - - To review the implementation of the recommendations of the Interim Report of the Working Party on Cervical  Screening 1988; - To review the general efficacy and cost effectiveness of the operation of the present systems; and - To consider what further cost effective improvements can be made.     Download the Report here