Desempenho e background familiar: um estudo no acesso a uma instituição de ensino técnico federal no Brasil

This paper comprises an investigation on the influence of the variable family backgrounds (father school level, mother school level and family income) over the pupil s performance in admissions examination (entrance test or PROITEC) at Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN). From that point of view, the main goal of this research is to analyze the influence of the family background as a determiner of the pupil´s performance in the access to Technical and Professional education at IFRN. Secondary data were used from two databases (entrance test and PROITEC) adding up to 19.226 observations to the vacancies offered in the year of 2013. Aiming at achieving the proposed goal, a conceptual model composed of three hypothesis was developed. The results were presented in four stages: stage I presentation of the descriptive statistical results of the two databases; stage II separation of the campi in clusters; stage III analysis of multiple regressions; stage IV analysis of the logistics regressions. Two statistical tests were used to validate the hypothesis: T-test and Wald test. Hypothesis 1 and 2 were confirmed and H3 was refused. The results presented favorable causal connections to the family income and the father school level variables (with bigger effect for fathers with a higher education degree). The mother school level variable did not provide statistical significance for this research. Based on this result, after this work, this institution is to develop a strategic plan to assist in the success rate of students preparing diagnoses in order to diminish the effects of the variables that impacted negatively

Influence d'un incitatif financier destiné aux médecins de famille sur la gestion du diabète des Néo-Brunswickois

Résumé: Problématique : En réponse à la prévalence accrue de la maladie du diabète et au fardeau économique important que représente cette maladie sur le système de santé international, des programmes incitatifs pour les maladies chroniques furent instaurés à travers le monde. Ces programmes visent à inciter les médecins à appliquer les lignes directrices chez leurs patients avec besoin complexe en vue d’améliorer la santé des patients et par la suite de réduire les coûts incombés par le système de santé. Les programmes incitatifs étant nombreux et différents d’un pays à l’autre, les études actuelles ne semblent pas s’entendre sur les répercussions de tels programmes sur la santé des patients atteints de diabète. L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer les retombées d’un incitatif financier sur le contrôle glycémique de la population atteinte de diabète du Nouveau-Brunswick, au Canada. Méthodes : Cette étude transversale répétée et de cohorte a été menée grâce à des bases de données administratives du Nouveau-Brunswick contenant des données sur dix ans pour 83 580 patients adultes atteints de diabète et 583 médecins de famille éligibles. La santé des patients a été évaluée au niveau du contrôle glycémique, en mesurant les valeurs moyennes d’A1C annuelles à l’aide de régressions linéaires multivariées. Afin d’évaluer si les médecins changeaient leur pratique avec l’implantation du programme incitatif, nous regardions au niveau de la probabilité de recours annuel à au moins deux tests d’A1C en utilisant des régressions logistiques multivariées. Résultats : La probabilité de recours annuel à au moins deux tests d’A1C était plus élevée dans quatre sous-groupes étudiés : les patients nouvellement diagnostiqués après l’implantation du programme avaient des cotes plus élevées comparées aux nouveaux patients avant l’implantation du programme (OR=1.23 [1.18-1.28]); les patients pour lesquels un médecin avait réclamé l’incitatif comparés aux patients pour lesquels aucun médecin n’avait réclamé l’incitatif (OR=2.73 [2.64-2.81]); les patients pour lesquels un médecin avait réclamé l’incitatif avaient des cotes plus élevées après l’implantation du programme comparé à avant (OR=1.89 [1.80-1.98]); et finalement, les patients suivis par un médecin de famille qui a déjà réclamé l’incitatif avaient des cotes 24% plus élevées (OR=1.24 [1.15-1.34]). Il n’y avait pas de différence dans les valeurs d’A1C annuelles entre les 4 sous-groupes étudiés. Conclusion : L’implantation du programme incitatif a démontré que les médecins ont une meilleure probabilité de prescrire au moins deux tests d’A1C, ce qui suggère une meilleure prise en charge des patients. Cependant, le manque de changement au niveau du contrôle glycémique du patient suggère que l’étude des répercussions de l’incitatif devra être poursuivie afin de voir si elle mène à une amélioration d’issues cliniques chez les patients.

Inter-industry differences in local banks' effect on new firm formation : A regional study of entrepreneurship in Sweden

Formation of new firms is important, since new firms create jobs and economic growth. When entrepreneurs lack the financial resources which are needed to start a firm, they often turn to banks to borrow money. Previous research has shown that relationships between banks and new business borrowers most often are local and that the dependence on banks differs across industries. In light of this, the purpose of this paper is to investigate if local access to banks has a stronger relationship with the rate of new firm formation in some industries than in others. Based on cross-sectional data on all Swedish municipalities in 2009, a series of OLS regressions are estimated to test if variables used to describe the bank market in a municipality are related with the new firm formation rate, both in total and in different industry categories. The results show that the number of bank branches per capita is positively related with the total new firm formation rate. In regards to the inter-industry differences, the findings indicate that local access to banks is more important for new firm formation in some industries than in others. 

Decision-making process in Portuguese Erasmus student mobility: case study

With the evolution of nowadays knowledge-based economies, the labour class becomes more competitive. As a way of getting skills that bring benefits to their careers, university students take advantage of the many opportunities available and go abroad to study. This study develops and empirically tests a structural model that examines the antecedents that influence the decision-making process of an Erasmus student under mobility for studies (EMS) in Aveiro, Coimbra and Porto (2014-2015). Reliability analysis, exploratory factor analysis and linear regressions were used to evaluate the model. Based on a survey with a sample of 872 valid responses, this study has demonstrated that EMS students are also influenced by touristic factors, which gives support to what has recently been approached by other authors. Conclusions and suggestions can be applied by other organizations, mainly Higher Education Institutions in order to attract more EMS students.

Association between physical activity and cardiorespiratory factors in adolescents: a cross-sectional exploratory study

Background: Currently, under half of the adolescents reach recommended daily levels of physical activity (PA). It is known that higher levels of PA lead to higher levels of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and therefore, a health-related CRF criterion value could contribute to identify the target population for primary cardiovascular disease prevention. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the relation between PA levels and CRF factors in healthy adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional exploratory study with healthy adolescents aged 12-18 years old was conducted. Socio-demographic and body composition data were collected using a questionnaire. PA level was scored with the Physical Activity Index (PAI) and CRF assessment included lung function (LF) measured with spirometry and exercise tolerance measured with Incremental Shuttle Walking Test (ISWT). According to PAI scores the sample was divided in two groups: 1 (sedentary, low and moderately active); 2 (vigorously active (VA)). Descriptive statistics were applied to characterise the sample. Independent sample t-tests assessed differences between groups and simple logistic regressions identified the predictors of being VA. Results: The study included 115 adolescents (14.63±1.70 years old; 56.52% female). Adolescents presented a normal body mass index=21.19±3.14 Kg.m-2) and LF (forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1)=105.58±12.73% of the predicted). Significant differences were found between groups in height (G1–163.44±8.01; G2–167±8.65; p=0.024), LF (FEV1/ forced vital capacity (FVC); G1–97.58±10.66; G2–94.04±8.04; p=0.049), ISWT distance (G1– 1089.81±214.04; G2–1173.60±191.86; p=0.038); heart rate (HR) at rest (G1– 84.61±13.68; G2–79.23±13.81; p=0.038), HR at the end of the best ISWT (G1– 124.71±37.57; G2–133.54±33.61; p=0.041) and percentage of the maximal HR achieved during ISWT (G1–63.09±19.03; G2–67.53±17.08; p=0.043). Simple logistic regressions showed that height (OR–1.054; 95%CI 1.006-1.104), ISWT distance (OR–1.002; 95%CI 1.000-1.004) and HR at rest (OR–0.971; 95%CI 0.945-0.999) were predictors of being VA. Conclusions: Results suggest that more physically active adolescents have a better CRF profile. The findings suggest that PA is important to adolescents’ health status and it should be encouraged since childhood. Clinical practice will benefit from the use of PAI, ISWT and HR findings, allowing physiotherapists to use it for prescribing exercise.

Rethinking the STEM fields: the importance of definitions in examining women's participation and success in the sciences

This study uses longitudinal data of undergraduate students from five public land-grant universities to better understand undergraduate students’ persistence in and switching of majors, with particular attention given to women’s participation in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields. Specifically, the study examines patterns of behavior of women and minorities in relation to initial choice of college major and major field persistence, as well as what majors students switched to upon changing majors. Factors that impact major field persistence are also examined, as well as how switching majors affects students’ time-to-degree. Using a broad definition of STEM, data from nearly 17,000 undergraduate students was analyzed with descriptive statistics, cross tabulations, and binary logistic regressions. The results highlight women’s high levels of participation and success in the sciences, challenging common notions of underrepresentation in the STEM fields. The study calls for researchers to use a comprehensive definition of STEM and broad measurements of persistence when investigating students’ participation in the STEM fields.

Qualidade física e matéria orgânica do solo em sistema de integração lavoura - pecuária submetido a doses de nitrogênio

The animal trampling favors the soil compaction process in sheep raising and crop production integrated systems. This compression has negative effects, hindering the development of roots, the availability of nutrients, water and aeration, causing production losses, making it essential for the assessment of soil physical attributes for monitoring soil quality. Soil organic matter can be used to assess the quality of the soil, due to its relationship with the chemical, physical and biological soil properties. Conservation management system with tillage, along with systems integration between crops and livestock are being used to maintain and even increase the levels of soil organic matter. For that, a field experiment was carried out over a Oxisol clayey Alic in Guarapuava, PR, from de 2006 one. experiment sheep raising and crop production integrated systems The climate classified as Cfb .. The study was to evaluate the soil physical properties and quantify the stock of soil organic carbon and its compartmentalization in system integration crop - livestock with sheep under four nitrogen rates (0, 75, 150 and 225 kg ha-1) in the winter pasture, formed by the consortium oat (Avena strigosa) and ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) and the effect of grazing (with and without). The soil samples blades density evaluations, total porosity, macro and micro, aggregation and carbon stocks were held in two phases: Phase livestock (after removal of the animals of the area) and phase crop (after maize cultivation). The collection of soil samples were carried out in layers of 0-0.5, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20 and m. Data were subjected to analysis of variance and the hypotheses tested by the F test (p <0.05). For the quantitative effect data regression and the qualitative effect used the test medium. In non-significant regressions used the average and standard deviation treatments. The animal trampling caused an increase in bulk density in the 0.10-0.20 m layer. The dose of 225 kg N ha-1 in winter pasture increased total soil porosity at 8% compared to dose 0 kg N ha-1 in the crop stage. The grazing had no effect on soil macroporosity. GMD of aggregates in the phase after grazing the surface layer was damaged by grazing. Nitrogen rates used in the winter pasture and grazing not influence the total organic carbon stocks. The TOC is not influenced by nitrogen fertilization on grassland. The grazing increases the stock of POC in the 0.10-0.20 m layer livestock phase and cause the stock of POC in the 0-0.5 m layer in the crop stage. The MAC is not influenced by N rates applied in the pasture or by grazing.

Economic Development of Urban Areas

In this dissertation I study the development of urban areas. At the aggregate level I investigate how they may be affected by climate change policies and by being designated the seat of governmental power. At the household level I study with coauthors how microfinance could improve the health of urban residents. In Chapter 1, I investigate how local employment may be affected by electricity price increases, which is a likely consequence of climate change policies. I outline how previous studies that find large, negative effects may be biased. To overcome these biases I develop a novel estimation strategy that blends border-pair regressions with the synthetic control methodology. I show the conditions for consistent estimation. Using this estimator, I find no effect of contemporaneous price changes on employment. Consistent with the longer time-frame for manufacturing decisions, I do find evidence for negative effects from perceived permanent price shocks. These estimates are much smaller than previous research has found. National capital cities are often substantially larger than other cities in their countries. In Chapter 2, I investigate whether there is a causal effect from being a capital by studying the 1960 relocation of the Brazilian capital from Rio de Janeiro to Brasília. Using a synthetic controls strategy I find that losing the capital had no significant effects on Rio de Janeiro in terms of population, employment, or gross domestic product (GDP). I find that Brasília experienced large and significant increases in population, employment, and GDP. I find evidence of large spillovers from the public to the private sector. Chapter 3 investigates how microfinance could increase the uptake of costly health goods. We study the effect of time payments (micro-loans or micro-savings) on willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a water filter among households in the slums of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We find that time payments significantly increase WTP: compared to a lump-sum up-front purchase, median WTP increases 83% with a six-month loan and 115% with a 12-month loan. We find that households are quite patient with respect to consumption of health inputs. We find evidence for the presence of credit and savings constraints.

The Self as a Moral Basis: Do Our Own Patterns of Behavior Affect our Moral Attributions?

To determine which actions are morally acceptable, psychologists typically focus on decision making within existing moral paradigms. However, this fails to comment upon individual and social processes, such as attribution, that determine morality. To address these processes, this study had participants respond to morally-charged scenarios by rating the immorality of an actor who did not tip a waiter (n = 125), was partial to infidelity (n = 128), and texted while driving (n = 128). Participants also completed an empathy measure, and provided their own frequency of engaging in certain behaviors, including those featured in the scenarios. Immorality ratings were compared to the participants’ own frequency of the scenario action (hypothesized to lower ratings), as well as empathy and outcome severity (both hypothesized to increase ratings). Findings were assessed in three regressions, one per scenario. Behavioral similarity predicted immorality ratings in each (p ≤ .03), empathy predicted ratings only for not tipping a waiter (p = .04), while outcome severity was un-predictive in each scenario. Theoretical implications, directions for future research, and limitations of the study are discussed.

Rôle de la collaboration famille-école dans la relation entre les caractéristiques sociodémographiques des familles et les difficultés de comportement des enfants de maternelle

Résumé : Les enfants de maternelle dont la préparation scolaire est limitée risquent de présenter des difficultés comportementales nuisibles à leur adaptation ultérieure. L’implication des parents à l’école, plus précisément la collaboration famille-école (CFE), peut représenter un facteur de protection favorisant l’adaptation de l’enfant tout au long de son parcours scolaire. Les écrits scientifiques suggèrent que la CFE jouerait un rôle important dans l’explication des difficultés de comportement, surtout auprès des enfants provenant de familles défavorisées. Cette étude porte sur le rôle de la CFE dans l’explication des difficultés de comportement intériorisé et extériorisé des enfants de maternelle qui présentaient des lacunes sur le plan de leur préparation scolaire. Les analyses de régression linéaire montrent que pour l’ensemble des familles de l’échantillon (n=47), plus il y a de communication entre le parent et l’enseignant, plus il y a présence de comportements extériorisés et intériorisés. Par contre, la CFE modère la relation entre un indice d’adversité constitué du cumul de cinq facteurs de risque sociodémographiques et les difficultés de comportement intériorisé. Ainsi, chez les familles défavorisées, une communication plus fréquente est associée à moins de comportements de type intériorisé.

Caractérisation des maladies respiratoires en lien avec les problématiques d’humidité excessive ou de moisissures dans les logements des étudiants universitaires

Résumé : PROBLÉMATIQUE: L’exposition résidentielle à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures est maintenant reconnue comme un facteur important influençant la santé respiratoire. Cette problématique a été peu étudiée chez les étudiants universitaires, bien que vulnérables par leur faible revenu et leur statut de locataire. OBJECTIFS: Cette maîtrise vise à décrire la prévalence (a) de l’exposition résidentielle à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures et (b) des maladies respiratoires chez les étudiants universitaires, ainsi qu’à (c) examiner l’association entre l’exposition résidentielle à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures et ces maladies. MÉTHODES: En 2014, une enquête électronique a été réalisée auprès de 2097 étudiants enregistrés à l’Université de Sherbrooke (Québec, Canada). Lorsque possible, des questions et des scores validés ont été utilisés pour estimer les prévalences des maladies respiratoires (rhinite allergique, asthme et infections respiratoires), de l’exposition résidentielle à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures et des covariables (ex. : revenu annuel familial, statut tabagique, atopie familiale, caractéristiques de l’étudiant). Les associations entre cette exposition et ces maladies ont d’abord été examinées par des tests de chi-carré en utilisant un seuil alpha de 0,05. Des régressions logistiques multivariées ont ensuite été utilisées pour déterminer les associations brutes et ajustée entre cette exposition et les maladies respiratoires. Les analyses descriptives ont été pondérées pour le sexe, l’âge et le campus d’étude. RÉSULTATS: L’exposition à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures était fréquente parmi les participants (36,0%; Intervalle de confiance (IC)95% : 33,9-38,1). Ceux-ci ont également été nombreux à rapporter une rhinite allergique (23,9%; IC95% :22,0-25,8), de l’asthme (32,6%; IC95% : 30,5-34,7) et des infections respiratoires (19,4%; IC95% :17,7-21,2) au cours de la dernière année. Après ajustement, les associations demeuraient significatives entre l’exposition à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures et la rhinite allergique (Rapport de cote (RC) : 1,30; IC95% : 1.05-1.60), l’asthme RC : 1,75; IC95% : 1,42-2,16), mais pas les infections respiratoires (RC : 1,07; IC95% : 0,85-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: La prévalence élevée de l’exposition résidentielle des étudiants universitaires à l’humidité excessive ou aux moisissures, de même que son association avec l’asthme et la rhinite allergique, mettent en lumière sa contribution potentielle à la forte prévalence des maladies respiratoires ayant une composante allergique dans cette population. Cette étude fournit un nouveau levier pour les organisations de santé publique et leurs partenaires afin d’adapter les stratégies préventives ciblant les logements insalubres, particulièrement chez les populations vulnérables.

COMPOSIÇÃO FLORÍSTICO-ESTRUTURAL AO LONGO DE UM GRADIENTE DE BORDA EM FRAGMENTO DE FLORESTA OMBRÓFILA MISTA ALTO-MONTANA EM SANTA CATARINA

O objetivo desse estudo foi caracterizar a composição florística e a estrutura do componente arbóreo em fragmento de Floresta Ombrófila Mista Alto-Montana e avaliar a influência do efeito de borda sobre a organização, estrutura, riqueza e diversidade de espécies. Foram alocadas 50 parcelas permanentes de 10 x 20 m, divididas em cinco transeções distanciadas, no mínimo, 100 m entre si, em um fragmento florestal, no município de Bom Jardim da Serra - SC. As árvores com circunferência ≥ 15,7 cm na altura do peito (CAP) foram mensuradas (CAP e altura total), identificadas e classificadas quanto às guildas de regeneração (pioneiras, climácicas exigentes em luz e climácicas tolerantes à sombra). Os dados foram analisados por meio dos índices de valor de importância (IVI), NMDS (Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling), modelo aditivo generalizado e regressões lineares simples. Foram observados 1.457 indivíduos arbóreos, distribuídos em 29 famílias, 43 gêneros e 55 espécies. A espécie com maior valor de importância foi Dicksonia sellowiana Hook. Não foi observada influência do efeito de borda sobre a organização, a estrutura (diâmetro médio, altura média e densidade) da comunidade e participação relativa das guildas de regeneração. No entanto, ficaram evidenciados maiores valores de diversidade, riqueza e equabilidade nas áreas de borda. Desta forma, concluí-se que parte das variações dos valores relativos à diversidade de espécies arbóreas na Floresta Ombrófila Mista Ato-Montana foi determinada pela distância da borda.

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

INFLUÊNCIA DA POSIÇÃO SOCIAL NAS RELAÇÕES MORFOMÉTRICAS DE Araucaria angustifolia

The morphometric relations allow describing dimensions of trees without prior knowledge of the age, it help the forest planning and implementation of silvicultural treatments, especially when needs to make sustainable use of forests. For this purpose, the aim of this study was to model and comparising the morphometric relations araucaria trees in social position dominant, codominant and dominated in native forest remnant, located in Lages, SC. A total of 294 trees distributed in dbh classes were intentionally selected inside of forest. In each tree was measured dbh, total height, bole height, crown diameter by eight radius, as well as the classification of social position. Simple and multiple linear regression models were used to describe the relation h/d, the proportion of the crown and formal crown in function of diameter at breast height with simple transformation, quadratic, cubic, inverse and logarithmic form. The analysis of covariance with dummy variables were used to describe the social position and tested the parallelism and slope of regression indicating need or not of the use independent regressions. The results indicated that even with great variability in the shape and size of the crown due to growth and competition process, the morphometric relations of araucaria can be accurately estimated by regression models. The relation h/d, proportion of the crown and formal crown can be described by individual model for social position dominant, codominant and dominant, or alternatively a single model with the use of dummy variables that differentiate trees group dominated for the relation h/d and formal crown. The proportion of crown presented difference in dimensions of the trees, being necessary to use dummy variable for each social stratus or use the individual models.

Modélisation incrémentale par méthode bayésienne

Les modèles incrémentaux sont des modèles statistiques qui ont été développés initialement dans le domaine du marketing. Ils sont composés de deux groupes, un groupe contrôle et un groupe traitement, tous deux comparés par rapport à une variable réponse binaire (le choix de réponses est « oui » ou « non »). Ces modèles ont pour but de détecter l’effet du traitement sur les individus à l’étude. Ces individus n’étant pas tous des clients, nous les appellerons : « prospects ». Cet effet peut être négatif, nul ou positif selon les caractéristiques des individus composants les différents groupes. Ce mémoire a pour objectif de comparer des modèles incrémentaux d’un point de vue bayésien et d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Les modèles incrémentaux utilisés en pratique sont ceux de Lo (2002) et de Lai (2004). Ils sont initialement réalisés d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Ainsi, dans ce mémoire, l’approche bayésienne est utilisée et comparée à l’approche fréquentiste. Les simulations sont e ectuées sur des données générées avec des régressions logistiques. Puis, les paramètres de ces régressions sont estimés avec des simulations Monte-Carlo dans l’approche bayésienne et comparés à ceux obtenus dans l’approche fréquentiste. L’estimation des paramètres a une influence directe sur la capacité du modèle à bien prédire l’effet du traitement sur les individus. Nous considérons l’utilisation de trois lois a priori pour l’estimation des paramètres de façon bayésienne. Elles sont choisies de manière à ce que les lois a priori soient non informatives. Les trois lois utilisées sont les suivantes : la loi bêta transformée, la loi Cauchy et la loi normale. Au cours de l’étude, nous remarquerons que les méthodes bayésiennes ont un réel impact positif sur le ciblage des individus composant les échantillons de petite taille.