LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A GENERAL STOCHASTIC RUMOUR MODEL

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in it.

The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation

The Community Climate Model (CCM3) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is used to investigate the effect of the South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on interannual to decadal variability of South American precipitation. Two ensembles composed of multidecadal simulations forced with monthly SST data from the Hadley Centre for the period 1949 to 2001 are analysed. A statistical treatment based on signal-to-noise ratio and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) is applied to the ensembles in order to reduce the internal variability among the integrations. The ensemble treatment shows a spatial and temporal dependence of reproducibility. High degree of reproducibility is found in the tropics while the extratropics is apparently less reproducible. Austral autumn (MAM) and spring (SON) precipitation appears to be more reproducible over the South America-South Atlantic region than the summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) rainfall. While the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region is dominated by external variance, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) over South America is predominantly determined by internal variance, which makes it a difficult phenomenon to predict. Alternatively, the SACZ over western South Atlantic appears to be more sensitive to the subtropical SST anomalies than over the continent. An attempt is made to separate the atmospheric response forced by the South Atlantic SST anomalies from that associated with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that both the South Atlantic and Pacific SSTs modulate the intensity and position of the SACZ during DJF. Particularly, the subtropical South Atlantic SSTs are more important than ENSO in determining the position of the SACZ over the southeast Brazilian coast during DJF. On the other hand, the ENSO signal seems to influence the intensity of the SACZ not only in DJF but especially its oceanic branch during MAM. Both local and remote influences, however, are confounded by the large internal variance in the region. During MAM and JJA, the South Atlantic SST anomalies affect the magnitude and the meridional displacement of the ITCZ. In JJA, the ENSO has relatively little influence on the interannual variability of the simulated rainfall. During SON, however, the ENSO seems to counteract the effect of the subtropical South Atlantic SST variations on convection over South America.

Mechanism and model of the oscillatory electro-oxidation of methanol

A mechanism for the kinetic instabilities observed in the galvanostatic electro-oxidation of methanol is suggested and a model developed. The model is investigated using stoichiometric network analysis as well as concepts from algebraic geometry (polynomial rings and ideal theory) revealing the occurrence of a Hopf and a saddle-node bifurcation. These analytical solutions are confirmed by numerical integration of the system of differential equations. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics

Abundance of sedentary consumers and sessile organisms along the wave exposure gradient of subtropical rocky shores of the south-west Atlantic

Sedentary consumers play an important role on populations of prey and, hence, their patterns of abundance, distribution and coexistence on shores are important to evaluate their potential influence on ecosystem dynamics. Here, we aimed to describe their spatio-temporal distribution and abundance in relation to wave exposure in the intertidal rocky shores of the south-west Atlantic to provide a basis for further understanding of ecological processes in this system. The abundance and composition of the functional groups of sessile organisms and sedentary consumers were taken by sampling the intertidal of sheltered and moderately exposed shores during a period of one year. The sublittoral fringe of sheltered areas was dominated by macroalgae, while the low midlittoral was dominated by bare rock and barnacles. In contrast, filter-feeding animals prevailed at exposed shores, probably explaining the higher abundance of the predator Stramonita haemastoma at these locations. Limpets were more abundant at the midlittoral zone of all shores while sea urchins were exclusively found at the sublittoral fringe of moderately exposed shores, therefore, adding grazing pressure on these areas. The results showed patterns of coexistence, distribution and abundance of those organisms in this subtropical area, presumably as a result of wave action, competition and prey availability. It also brought insights on the influence of top-down and bottom-up processes in this area.

Foraging by the omnivorous crab Pachygrapsus transversus affects the structure of assemblages on sub-tropical rocky shores

The roles of herbivory and predation in determining the structure and diversity of communities have been tested across most intertidal systems. In contrast, the importance of omnivorous consumers remains untested in many rocky shore communities. We tested the role of a small omnivorous crab in an intertidal food web on rocky shores of the sub-tropical southwest Atlantic. Exclusion of the grapsid crab Pachygrapsus transversus in the field resulted in significant changes in the abundance of functional groups in the sublittoral fringe of sheltered shores, where the dominant cover changed from a suite of macroalgae to an assemblage of filter-feeding animals (ascidians, sponges, mussels). In contrast, limpets, whelks, large crabs and fish did not significantly affect community composition of the assemblage. To examine the omnivorous feeding pattern of P. transversus, we did laboratory experiments to test its foraging behaviour among animal and algal groups. The crab showed selective behaviour, preferring invertebrate groups to macroalgae, and opportunistic behaviour among types of prey within those major groups. According to our results, the role of slow-moving and large fast-moving consumers is apparently negligible compared to the effect of an omnivorous consumer. P. transversus plays an important role in determining the intertidal community composition on these subtropical rocky shores, causing changes in the balance of functional groups and controlling invasive species.

Individual-level diet variation in four species of Brazilian frogs

Many natural populations exploiting a wide range of resources are actually composed of relatively specialized individuals. This interindividual variation is thought to be a consequence of the invasion of `empty` niches in depauperate communities, generally in temperate regions. If individual niches are constrained by functional trade-offs, the expansion of the population niche is only achieved by an increase in interindividual variation, consistent with the `niche variation hypothesis`. According to this hypothesis, we should not expect interindividual variation in species belonging to highly diverse, packed communities. In the present study, we measured the degree of interindividual diet variation in four species of frogs of the highly diverse Brazilian Cerrado, using both gut contents and delta(13)C stable isotopes. We found evidence of significant diet variation in the four species, indicating that this phenomenon is not restricted to depauperate communities in temperate regions. The lack of correlations between the frogs` morphology and diet indicate that trade-offs do not depend on the morphological characters measured here and are probably not biomechanical. The nature of the trade-offs remains unknown, but are likely to be cognitive or physiological. Finally, we found a positive correlation between the population niche width and the degree of diet variation, but a null model showed that this correlation can be generated by individuals sampling randomly from a common set of resources. Therefore, albeit consistent with, our results cannot be taken as evidence in favour of the niche variation hypothesis.

Simulation of Soil Carbon Dynamics under Sugarcane with the CENTURY Model

Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.

Neutron Activation Analysis: A Primary (Ratio) Method to Determine SI-Traceable Values of Element Content in Complex Samples

The metrological principles of neutron activation analysis are discussed. It has been demonstrated that this method can provide elemental amount of substance with values fully traceable to the SI. The method has been used by several laboratories worldwide in a number of CCQM key comparisons - interlaboratory comparison tests at the highest metrological level - supplying results equivalent to values from other methods for elemental or isotopic analysis in complex samples without the need to perform chemical destruction and dissolution of these samples. The CCOM accepted therefore in April 2007 the claim that neutron activation analysis should have the similar status as the methods originally listed by the CCOM as `primary methods of measurement`. Analytical characteristics and scope of application are given.

Multifractal regime transition in a modified minority game model

The search for more realistic modeling of financial time series reveals several stylized facts of real markets. In this work we focus on the multifractal properties found in price and index signals. Although the usual minority game (MG) models do not exhibit multifractality, we study here one of its variants that does. We show that the nonsynchronous MG models in the nonergodic phase is multifractal and in this sense, together with other stylized facts, constitute a better modeling tool. Using the structure function (SF) approach we detected the stationary and the scaling range of the time series generated by the MG model and, from the linear (non-linear) behavior of the SF we identified the fractal (multifractal) regimes. Finally, using the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) technique we obtained its multifractal spectrum width for different dynamical regimes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multifractality in the random parameter model for multivariate time series

The Random Parameter model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we explore the scaling properties of the model, as observed in the multifractal structure of the simulated time series. We use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima technique to obtain the multifractal spectrum dependence with the parameters of the model. The model shows a scaling structure compatible with the stylized facts for a reasonable choice of the parameter values. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Markovian model market-Akerlof`s lemons and the asymmetry of information

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land planarians (Platyhelminthes) as a model organism for fine-scale phylogeographic studies: understanding patterns of biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the richest biodiversity hotspots of the world. Paleoclimatic models have predicted two large stability regions in its northern and central parts, whereas southern regions might have suffered strong instability during Pleistocene glaciations. Molecular phylogeographic and endemism studies show, nevertheless, contradictory results: although some results validate these predictions, other data suggest that paleoclimatic models fail to predict stable rainforest areas in the south. Most studies, however, have surveyed species with relatively high dispersal rates whereas taxa with lower dispersion capabilities should be better predictors of habitat stability. Here, we have used two land planarian species as model organisms to analyse the patterns and levels of nucleotide diversity on a locality within the Southern Atlantic Forest. We find that both species harbour high levels of genetic variability without exhibiting the molecular footprint of recent colonization or population expansions, suggesting a long-term stability scenario. The results reflect, therefore, that paleoclimatic models may fail to detect refugia in the Southern Atlantic Forest, and that model organisms with low dispersal capability can improve the resolution of these models.

Harvest-ironman: heavy armature, and not its defensive secretions, protects a harvestman against a spider

Natural selection has caused prey species to evolve distinct defensive mechanisms. One of such mechanisms was the evolution of noxious or distasteful chemicals, which have appeared independently in a number of vertebrates and invertebrates. In detailed analyses of arthropod behaviour, scent gland secretions have consistently been shown to be responsible for repelling specific predators. Because using such chemicals is costly, animals with alternative cheaper defences are expected not to release such secretions when alternative options exist. In this study, we sought to determine the defensive mechanisms of the harvestman Discocyrtus invalidus, a heavy bodied species that bears a pair of repugnatorial glands. The spider Enoploctenus cyclothorax was used as the predator, and the cricket Gryllus sp. was used as a control. In a first set of experiments, the harvestmen were preyed upon significantly less than the crickets. In two other experiments, we found that harvestmen did not use their scent gland secretions to deter the predator. Moreover, results of a fourth experiment revealed that these spiders are not repelled by defensive secretions. Discocyrtus invalidus has a thick cuticle on the entire body: scanning electron micrographs revealed that only the mouth, the articulations of appendages and the tips of the legs are not covered by a hard integument. In a fifth experiment, we found that these spiders had difficulty piercing the harvestmen body. This is the first experimental evidence that a chemically defended arachnid does not use its scent gland secretions to repel a much larger predator but instead relies on its heavily built body. (c) 2010 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE IMPORTANCE OF DISAGREEING: CONTRARIANS AND EXTREMISM IN THE CODA MODEL

In this paper, we study the effects of introducing contrarians in a model of Opinion Dynamics where the agents have internal continuous opinions, but exchange information only about a binary choice that is a function of their continuous opinion, the CODA model. We observe that the hung election scenario that arises when contrarians are introduced in discrete opinion models still happens. However, it is weaker and it should not be expected in every election. Finally, we also show that the introduction of contrarians make the tendency towards extremism of the original model weaker, indicating that the existence of agents that prefer to disagree might be an important aspect and help society to diminish extremist opinions.